The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

An integrated biogeographic assessment of reef fish populations and fisheries in Dry Tortugas: Effects of No-take Reserves

The Tortugas Integrated Biogeographic Assessment presents a unique analysis of demographic changes in living resource populations, as well as societal and socioeconomic benefits that resulted from the Tortugas Ecological Reserves during the first five years after their implementation. In 2001, state and federal agencies established two no-take reserves within the region as part of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. The northern reserve (Tortugas Ecological Reserve North) was established adjacent to the Dry Tortugas National Park, which was first declared a national monument in 1935. The reserves were designed to protect a healthy coral reef ecosystem that supports diverse faunal assemblages and fisheries, serves as important spawning grounds for groupers and snappers, and includes essential feeding and breeding habitats for seabirds. The unique ecological qualities of the Tortugas region were recognized as far back as 1850, and it remains an important ecosystem and research area today. The two main goals of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve Integrated Ecological Assessment were: 1) to determine if demographic changes such as increases in abundance, average size and spawning potential of exploited populations occurred in the Tortugas region after reserve implementation; and 2) whether short-term economic losses occurred to fishers displaced by the reserve. This project utilized a biogeographic approach in which information on the physical features (i.e., habitat) and oceanographic patterns were first used to determine the spatial distribution of selected fish populations within and outside the Tortugas Ecological Reserve. Before-and-after reserve implementation comparisons of selected fish populations were then conducted to determine if demographic changes occurred in reef fish assemblages. These comparisons were done for the Tortugas region and also for a subset of available habitats within the Tortugas Ecological Reserve Study Area. Social and economic impacts of the reserves were determined through: 1) analyses of commercial landings and revenues from fishers, operating in the Tortugas region before and after reserve implementation and 2) surveys of recreational tour guides. Analyses of the commercial landings and revenues excluded areas inside Dry Tortugas National Park because commercial fishing has been prohibited within park boundaries since 1992. Key findings and outcomes of this integrated ecological assessment are organized by chapter and listed below.

Coral reef ecosystems of Reserva Natural de La Parguera (Puerto Rico): spatial and temporal patterns in fish and benthic communities (2001-2007)

Since 1999, NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize monitor and assess the status of the marine environment in southwestern Puerto Rico. This effort is part of the broader NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program’s (CRCP) National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program (NCREMP). With support from CRCP’s NCREMP, CCMA conducts the “Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring project” (CREM) with goals to: (1) spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance and size of marine fauna associated with shallow water coral reef seascapes (mosaics of coral reefs, seagrasses, sand and mangroves); (2) relate this information to in situ fine-scale habitat data and the spatial distribution and diversity of habitat types using benthic habitat maps; (3) use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting; (4) establish the efficacy of those management decisions; and (5) develop data collection and data management protocols. The monitoring effort of the La Parguera region in southwestern Puerto Rico was conducted through partnerships with the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DNER). Project funding was primarily provided by NOAA CRCP and CCMA. In recent decades, scientific and non-scientific observations have indicated that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystem in the La Parguera region have been adversely impacted by a wide range of environmental stressors. The major stressors have included the mass Diadema die off in the early 1980s, a suite of hurricanes, overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events, with the most severe mass bleaching episode in 2005. The area is also an important recreational resource supporting boating, snorkeling, diving and other water based activities. With so many potential threats to the marine ecosystem several activities are underway or have been implemented to manage the marine resources. These efforts have been supported by the CREM project by identifying marine fauna and their spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. This provides ecologically meaningful data to assess ecosystem condition, support decision making in spatial planning (including the evaluation of efficacy of current management strategies) and determine future information needs. The ultimate goal of the work is to better understand the coral reef ecosystems and to provide information toward protecting and enhancing coral reef ecosystems for the benefit of the system itself and to sustain the many goods and services that it offers society. This Technical Memorandum contains analysis of the first seven years of fish survey data (2001-2007) and associated characterization of the benthos. The primary objectives were to quantify changes in fish species and assemblage diversity, abundance, biomass and size structure and to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of key species or groups of species and to compare community structure across the seascape including fringing mangroves, inner, middle, and outer reef areas, and open ocean shelf bank areas.

Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) demographic structure in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on spatial patterns in growth rates and morphometrics

Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) in the United States waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been considered a single unit stock since management of the species began in 1991. The validity of this assumption is essential to management decisions because measures of growth can differ for nonmixing populations. We examined growth rates, size-at-age, and length and weight information of red snapper collected from the recreational harvests of Alabama (n=2010), Louisiana (n=1905), and Texas (n =1277) from 1999 to 2001. Ages were obtained from 5035 otolith sections and ranged from one to 45 years. Fork length, total weight, and age-frequency distributions differed significantly among all states; Texas, however, had a much higher proportion of smaller, younger fish. All red snapper showed rapid growth until about age 10 years, after which growth slowed considerably. Von Bertalanffy growth models of both mean fork length and mean total weight-at-age predicted significantly smaller fish at age from Texas, whereas no differences were found between Alabama and Louisiana models. Texas red snapper were also shown to differ significantly from both Alabama and Louisiana red snapper in regressions of mean weight at age. Demographic variation in growth rates may indicate the existence of separate management units of red snapper in the GOM. Our data indicate that the red snapper inhabiting the waters off Texas are reaching smaller maximum sizes at a faster rate and have a consistently smaller total weight at age than those collected from Louisiana and Alabama waters. Whether these differences are environmentally induced or are the result of genetic divergence remains to be determined, but they should be considered for future management regulations.

Impact of hatchery releases on the recreational fishery for Pacific threadfin (Polydactylus sexfilis) in Hawaii

The Pacific threadfin (Polydactylus sexfilis) is considered one of the premier Hawaiian food fishes but even with catch limits, seasonal closures, and size limits, catches have declined dramatically since the 1960s. It was identified as the top candidate species for stock enhancement in Hawaii, based on the decline in stocks, high market value, and importance of the fishery. In the stock enhancement program for Pacific threadfin, over 430,000 fingerlings of various sizes were implanted with coded wire tags and released in nursery habitats along the windward coast of Oahu between 1993 and 1998. Because few Pacific threadfin were present in creel surveys conducted between 1994 and 1998, Oahu fishermen were offered a $10 reward for each threadfin that was caught (for both hatchery-reared and wild fish). A total of 1882 Pacific threadfin were recovered from the reward program between March 1998 and May 1999, including 163 hatchery-reared fish, an overall contribution of 8.7% to the fishery. Hatchery-reared fish accounted for as high as 71% of returns in the release areas. Hatchery-reared fish were recovered on average 11.5 km (SD=9.8 km) from the release site, although some had moved as far away as 42 km. Average age for recovered hatchery-reared fish was 495 days; the oldest was 1021 days. Cultured Pacific threadfin juveniles survived and recruited successfully to the recreational fishery, accounting for 10% of fishermen’s catches on the windward side of Oahu. Recruitment to the fishery was highest for the 1997 release year; few juveniles from earlier releases were observed. Presence of a few large, fully developed females in the recreational fishery suggested that hatchery-reared fish can survive, grow, and reproductively contribute to the population. Implementation of an enhancement program that is focused on juveniles and perhaps large females, as part of an integrated fishery management strategy, could speed the recovery of this fish population.