Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

A molecular genetic investigation of the population structure of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus)

Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), through landings, support one of the largest commercial fisheries in the United States. Recent consolidation of the once coast-wide reduction fishery to waters within and around Chesapeake Bay has raised concerns over the possibility of the loss of unique genetic variation resulting from concentrated fishing pressure. To address this question, we surveyed variation at the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene region and seven nuclear microsatellite loci to evaluate stock structure of Atlantic menhaden. Samples were collected from up to three cohorts of Atlantic menhaden at four geographic locations along the U.S. Atlantic coast in 2006 and 2007, and from the closely related Gulf menhaden (B. patronus) in the Gulf of Mexico. Genetic divergence between Atlantic menhaden and Gulf menhaden, based on the COI gene region sequences and microsatellite loci, was more characteristic of conspecific populations than separate species. Hierarchical analyses of molecular variance indicated a homogeneous distribution of genetic variation within Atlantic menhaden. No significant variation was found between young-of-the-year menhaden (YOY) collected early and late in the season within Chesapeake Bay, between young-of-the-year and yearling menhaden collected in the Chesapeake Bay during the same year, between YOY and yearling menhaden taken in Chesapeake Bay in successive years, or among combined YOY and yearling Atlantic menhaden collected in both years from the four geographic locations. The genetic connectivity between the regional collections indicates that the concentration of fishing pressure in and around Chesapeake Bay will not result in a significant loss of unique genetic variation.

Spatial and temporal variability in the relative contribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) stocks to winter mixed fisheries off South Florida

King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should

Age, growth, and reproduction of dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) caught off the coast of North Carolina

Age, growth, and reproductive data were obtained from dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus, size range: 89 to 1451 mm fork length [FL]) collected between May 2002 and May 2004 off North Carolina. Annual increments from scales (n=541) and daily increments from sagittal otoliths (n=107) were examined; estimated von Bertalanffy parameters were L∞ (asymptotic length)=1299 mm FL and k (growth coefficient)=1.08/yr. Daily growth increments reduced much of the residual error in length-at-age estimates for age-0 dolphinfish; the estimated average growth rate was 3.78 mm/day during the first six months. Size at 50% maturity was slightly smaller for female (460 mm FL) than male (475 mm FL) dolphinfish. Based on monthly length-adjusted gonad weights, peak spawning occurs from April through July off North Carolina; back-calculated hatching dates from age-0 dolphinfish and prior reproductive studies on the east coast of Florida indicate that dolphinfish spawning occurs year round off the U.S. east coast and highest levels range from January through June. No major changes in length-at-age or size-at-maturity have occurred since the early 1960s, even after substantial increases in fishery landings.

Exploitation and reproduction of the spotted eagle ray (Aetobatus narinari) in the Los Frailes Archipelago, Venezuela

We studied a small artisanal fishery for the spotted eagle ray (Aetobatus narinari) off Margarita Island in northeastern Venezuela. We analyzed data from 413 fishing trips directed at A. narinari over a 29-month sampling period (August 2005–December 2007). These trips yielded 55.9 metric tons and 1352 individuals from which a subsample of 846 females and 321 males was used for biological data. Maximum fishing effort and landings occurred between February and May, and catch per unit of effort was highest between December and February and between July and October with an overall average of 3 individuals and 133 kg per trip. The overall sex ratio was significantly different from 1:1 with a predominance of females. Females ranged in size with disc widths (DW) from 64 to 226 cm. Males ranged in size between 97 and 190 cm DW. There was no statistically significant difference between male and female length-weight relationships. Mean fecundity was estimated at 3.09 embryos per female, and the largest embryo measured 44.5 cm DW. Females in different maturity stages were found in all months, except November 2007, the month when all females were immature. Postgravid females occurred mainly during the periods of January–May and July–October. Mean length (L50) at maturity was estimated at 129.2 cm DW for males and 134.9 cm DW for females. This study provides much needed information on the biology and life history of A. narinari for the management of an intensive, directed, small-scale fishery for this little known species in northeastern Venezuela.

A comparison of two fishery-independent survey programs used to define the population structure of American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Gulf of Maine

The population structure and abundance of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) stock in the Gulf of Maine are defined by data derived from a fishery-independent trawl survey program conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Few sampling stations in the survey area are located inshore, in particular along coastal Maine. According to statistics, however, more than two thirds of the lobster landings come from inshore waters within three miles off the coast of Maine. In order to include an inshore survey program, complementary to the NMFS survey, the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) initialized an inshore survey program in 2000. The survey was modeled on the NMFS survey program, making these two survey programs comparable. Using data from both survey programs, we evaluated the population structure of the American lobster in the Gulf of Maine. Our findings indicate that lobsters in the Gulf of Maine tend to have a size-dependent inshore-off-shore distribution; smaller lobsters are more likely to stay inshore and larger lobsters are more likely to stay offshore. The DMR inshore and NMFS survey programs focused on different areas in the Gulf of Maine and likely targeted different segments of the stock. We suggest that data from both survey programs be used to assess the lobster stock and to describe the dynamics of the stock in the Gulf of Maine.

A study of tagging methods for the sea cucumber Cucumaria frondosa in the waters off Maine

The sea cucumber fishery in waters off Maine is developing and has recently experienced great increases in landings, corresponding to expanding export markets. Between 1994 and 1996, reported landings ranged from one to three million pounds (Fig. 1). In 1999, reported landings were over eight million pounds and rose to over nine million in 2000 (Feindel1). Like other developing fisheries, we have little information about the biology and ecology of the sea cucumber off Maine, limited data on the fishery, and little knowledge about the key life history processes that characterize its population dynamics. Therefore, we have a limited understanding of the current status of the resource and the impacts the fishery may have on the stock.

The fishery for California market squid (Loligo opalescens) (Cephalopoda: Myopsida), from 1981 through 2003

The California market squid (Loligo opalescens) has been harvested since the 1860s and it has become the largest fishery in California in terms of tonnage and dollars since 1993. The fishery began in Monterey Bay and then shifted to southern California, where effort has increased steadily since 1983. The California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) collects information on landings of squid, including tonnage, location, and date of capture. We compared landings data gathered by CDFG with sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling index (UI), the southern oscillation index (SOI), and their respective anomalies. We found that the squid fishery in Monterey Bay expends twice the effort of that in southern California. Squid landings decreased substantially following large El Niño events in 1982−83 and 1997−98, but not following the smaller El Niño events of 1987 and 1992. Spectral analysis revealed autocorrelation at annual and 4.5-year intervals (similar to the time period between El Niño cycles). But this analysis did not reveal any fortnightly or monthly spawning peaks, thus squid spawning did not correlate with tides. A paralarvae density index (PDI) for February correlated well with catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the following November recruitment of adults to the spawning grounds. This stock– recruitment analysis was significant for 2000−03 (CPUE=8.42+0.41PDI, adjusted coefficient of determination, r2=0.978, P=0.0074). Surveys of squid paralarvae explained 97.8% of the variance for catches of adult squid nine months later. The regression of CPUE on PDI could be used to manage the fishery. Catch limits for the fishery could be set on the basis of paralarvae abundance surveyed nine months earlier.

Fish production, catches and the carrying capacity of the world oceans

A brief review of the status of the world fisheries is presented with emphasis on the differences between catches (= landings + bycatch), biological production of fish, and predation (= production - catches). The ECOPATH II approach implemented as a new, Windows-based software is then shown to allow construction of a stratified world model accoutinng for global catches, production of and predation on fishes, and thus improved estimates of global potentials. A newly initiated, cooperative project is described through which the foundation for such a global model could be constructed, based on a stratified database with more than 100 trophic models. Collaborators are invited to join in this, and will be assisted in constructing models covering their areas of interest.

The marine fisheries of Trinidad and Tobago

The marine fisheries of Trinidad and Tobago are mainly artisanal and involve about 8,000 fishers. The main fishing gear used are the gillnets, the troll, the shrimp trawl, the fishpot and the industrial longline. Landings total approximately 14,000 t annually with Scomberomorus brasiliensis, shrimps and sharks being the most abundant in the landings. Assessment studies indicate overfishing and inferior marketing is an important issue. Underexploited resources include clupeiods, deep shell and slope resources, and lobsters. The shrimp trawl and longline by-catch are not fully utilized. Fishery legislation is mostly uotdated and a fisheries policy, including new legislation, is being developed to help solve the problems and effectively manage the fisheries.

Length-weight relationship of marine fishes from southern Brazil

The relationship between length (L) and weight (W) was estimated for 80 species belonging to 50 families of marine fishes from the shelf and upper slope of southern Brazil (lat. 28°S - 34°S). Sample sizes (n) for different species ranged from 11 to 14 741 specimens collected from commercial landings and research surveys. The fit of the equations (W=aLb) with a and b parameters estimated from regular and functional regression (of log-transformed weight and length data) as well as from a non-linear iterative process using the quasi-Newton algorithm were compared. The non-linear method gave the most accurate estimates in terms of residual sum of squares. Differences were less than 2.3% for n>500 compared with predictive regressions and 1.5% compared with functional regressions. No difference was observed between both predictive and functional regressions. Determination coefficients (r2) increased with sample size, and the highest r2 were obtained for 50

Reviving the Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) fishery in Vembanad Lake, India

In Vembanad Lake and its confluent rivers (Kerala, India), the catches of Macrobrachium rosenbergii (de Man) were reported to have dwindled to a mere 39 t in the 1980s from average landings of 300 t during the 1960s. This decline is due to the impact of a number of human interventions affecting the ecosystem and, hence, the stocks of M. rosenbergii. Monitoring of landings in 1994-1995 and 1995-1996 indicates an improvement in catches. This paper discusses the reasons for the decline and revival in stocks and suggestions for their replenishment.

Estimation of deepwater snapper yield from Tongan seamounts

The data from two years' monitoring of the Tongan seamount fishery were analyzed the two main export species are Pristipomoides filamentosus and Etelis coruscans. K.R. Allen's model was used to obtain estimates of catchability and recruitment and of a surplus production of 737 kg per nautical mile (nm) of 200 m contour. This compared reasonably well to total landings. Using this estimate, the annual surplus production for Tonga's 294 nm of 200 m contour is 217 t. The level of fishing mortality was found to be 0.3/year.

Growth, mortality and recruitment of Nile perch Lates niloticus (L. Centropomidae) in the Nyanza Gulf of Lake Victoria: an evaluation update

A reassessment of the estimates of growth, mortality and recruitment patterns of Nile Perch, Lates niloticus was made based on data from commercial landings collected during the Catch Assessment Survey Programme. Two sets of length frequency data, one each from beach seining and hook and line fisheries, were analyzed. Values of L8 = 169 and 230 (cm TL) and K= 0.18 yr-1 and 0.195 yr-1 were obtained. The total mortality estimates from the catch curve analysis were Z = 0.72 yr-1 and 0.94 yr-1, respectively, with a natural mortality M of about 0.35 for a mean environmental temperature of 27oC. The highest peak for recruitment was in November, December and January with a minor one in June, indicating recruitment of two cohorts per year. These results are discussed and compared to previously available information on L. niloticus in Lake Victoria.

Utilization of trawl bycatch in Gujarat (India)

Bycatch from trawlers forms a signifi cant quantity of the total marine fi sh landings along the northwest coast of India, particularly in the state of Gujarat, which contributes about 23 percent of the total marine fi sh landings in the country. This paper discusses the composition of this bycatch, its signifi cance in terms of nutritional value, its present utilization pattern and the scope for improvement.