Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling: Final report. [Digital Supplements A-G attached]

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.

Coral reef ecosystems of Reserva Natural de La Parguera (Puerto Rico): spatial and temporal patterns in fish and benthic communities (2001-2007)

Since 1999, NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize monitor and assess the status of the marine environment in southwestern Puerto Rico. This effort is part of the broader NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program’s (CRCP) National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program (NCREMP). With support from CRCP’s NCREMP, CCMA conducts the “Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring project” (CREM) with goals to: (1) spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance and size of marine fauna associated with shallow water coral reef seascapes (mosaics of coral reefs, seagrasses, sand and mangroves); (2) relate this information to in situ fine-scale habitat data and the spatial distribution and diversity of habitat types using benthic habitat maps; (3) use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting; (4) establish the efficacy of those management decisions; and (5) develop data collection and data management protocols. The monitoring effort of the La Parguera region in southwestern Puerto Rico was conducted through partnerships with the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DNER). Project funding was primarily provided by NOAA CRCP and CCMA. In recent decades, scientific and non-scientific observations have indicated that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystem in the La Parguera region have been adversely impacted by a wide range of environmental stressors. The major stressors have included the mass Diadema die off in the early 1980s, a suite of hurricanes, overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events, with the most severe mass bleaching episode in 2005. The area is also an important recreational resource supporting boating, snorkeling, diving and other water based activities. With so many potential threats to the marine ecosystem several activities are underway or have been implemented to manage the marine resources. These efforts have been supported by the CREM project by identifying marine fauna and their spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. This provides ecologically meaningful data to assess ecosystem condition, support decision making in spatial planning (including the evaluation of efficacy of current management strategies) and determine future information needs. The ultimate goal of the work is to better understand the coral reef ecosystems and to provide information toward protecting and enhancing coral reef ecosystems for the benefit of the system itself and to sustain the many goods and services that it offers society. This Technical Memorandum contains analysis of the first seven years of fish survey data (2001-2007) and associated characterization of the benthos. The primary objectives were to quantify changes in fish species and assemblage diversity, abundance, biomass and size structure and to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of key species or groups of species and to compare community structure across the seascape including fringing mangroves, inner, middle, and outer reef areas, and open ocean shelf bank areas.

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands

Since 2001, biannual fish and habitat monitoring has been conducted for the shallow (> 30 m), colonized pavement and gorgonian dominated Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM) St. Croix, USVI and adjacent waters. during October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within the ∼50 square-kilometer study area that was preceded by 10 wks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9–30.1 °C). Random transects (100 square meters) were conducted on linear reefs, patch reefs, bedrock, pavement, and scattered coral/rock habitats during October 2005, and April and October 2006, and species specific bleaching patterns were documented. During October 2005 approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching. Coral cover for Montastraea annularis and species of the genus Agaricia were the most affected, while other species exhibited variability in their susceptibility to bleaching. Bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5–28 m), was negatively correlated with depth, and positively correlated with habitat complexity. Bleaching was less prevalent at all depths and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006. Four species and one genus did not exhibit signs of bleaching throughout the study period (Dendrogyra cylindrus, Eusmilia fastigata, Mussa angulosa, Mycetophyllia aliciae, Scolymia spp.).

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands [poster]

Limited information currently exists on the recovery periods of bleached corals as well as the spatial extent, causative factors, and the overall impact of bleaching on coral reef ecosystems. During October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within Buck Island Reef National Monument (BUIS) St. Croix, USVI. The bleaching event was preceded by 10 weeks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9-30.1°C). Random transects (100 square meters) over hard bottom habitats (N=94) revealed that approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching; species-specific bleaching patterns were variable throughout the study area. Coral cover for Montastraea annularisand species of the genus Agariciawere the most affected, while other species exhibited variability to bleaching. Although a weak but significant negative relationship (r2=0.10, P=0.0220) was observed, bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5-28 m). Bleaching was spatially autocorrelated (P=0.001) and hot-spot analysis identified a cluster of high bleaching stations northeast of Buck Island. Bleaching was significantly reduced within all depth zones and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006.

Biogeographic characterization of fish communities and associated benthic habitats within the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary: sampling design and implementation of scuba surveys on the coral caps

The Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) is located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico approximately 180 km south of Galveston, Texas. The sanctuary’s distance from shore combined with its depth (the coral caps reach to within approximately 17 m of the surface) result in limited exposure of this coral reef ecosystem to natural and human-induced impacts compared to other coral reefs of the western Atlantic. In spite of this, the sanctuary still confronts serious impacts including hurricanes events, recent outbreaks of coral disease, an increase in the frequency of coral bleaching and the massive Diadema antillarum die-off during the mid-1980s. Anthropogenic impacts include large vessel anchoring, commercial and recreational fishing, recreational scuba diving, and oil and gas related activities. The FGBNMS was designated in 1992 to help protect against some of these impacts. Basic monitoring and research efforts have been conducted on the banks since the 1970s. Early on, these efforts focused primarily on describing the benthic communities (corals, sponges) and providing qualitative characterizations of the fish community. Subsequently, more quantitative work has been conducted; however, it has been limited in spatial scope. To complement these efforts, the current study addresses the following two goals put forth by sanctuary management: 1) to develop a sampling design for monitoring benthic fish communities across the coral caps; and 2) to obtain a spatial and quantitative characterization of those communities and their associated habitats.

Manual for the Sampling Design Tool for ArcGIS

The Biogeography Branch’s Sampling Design Tool for ArcGIS provides a means to effectively develop sampling strategies in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The tool was produced as part of an iterative process of sampling design development, whereby existing data informs new design decisions. The objective of this process, and hence a product of this tool, is an optimal sampling design which can be used to achieve accurate, high-precision estimates of population metrics at a minimum of cost. Although NOAA’s Biogeography Branch focuses on marine habitats and some examples reflects this, the tool can be used to sample any type of population defined in space, be it coral reefs or corn fields.

Spatial and temporal variation in the diet of the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Between June 1995 and May 1996 seven rookeries in the Gulf of California were visited four times in order to collect scat samples for studying spatial and seasonal variability California sea lion prey. The rookeries studied were San Pedro Mártir, San Esteban, El Rasito, Los Machos, Los Cantiles, Isla Granito, and Isla Lobos. The 1273 scat samples collected yielded 4995 otoliths (95.3%) and 247 (4.7%) cephalopod beaks. Fish were found in 97.4% of scat samples collected, cephalopods in 11.2%, and crustaceans in 12.7%. We identified 92 prey taxa to the species level, 11 to genus level, and 10 to family level, of which the most important were Pacific cutlassfish (Trichiurus lepturus), Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus), plainfin midshipman (Porichthys spp.), myctophid no. 1, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus), anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus), and jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus). Significant differences were found among rookeries in the occurrence of all main prey (P≤0.04), except for myctophid no. 1 (P>0.05). Temporally, significant differences were found in the occurrence of Pacific cutlassfish, Pacific sardine, plainfin midshipman, northern anchovy, and Pacific mackerel (P<0.05), but not in jack mackerel (χ 2=2.94, df=3, P=0.40), myctophid no. 1 (χ 2=1.67, df= 3, P=0.64), or lanternfishes (χ 2=2.08, df=3, P=0.56). Differences were observed in the diet and in trophic diversity among seasons and rookeries. More evident was the variation in diet in relation to availability of Pacific sardine.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.

Temporal changes in population density, fecundity, and egg size of the Hawaiian spiny lobster (Panulirus marginatus) at Necker Bank, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Fecundity (F, number of brooded eggs) and egg size were estimated for Hawaiian spiny lobster (Panulirus marginatus) at Necker Bank, North-western Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), in June 1999, and compared with previous (1978–81, 1991) estimates. Fecundity in 1999 was best described by the power equations F = 7.995 CL 2.4017, where CL is carapace length in mm (r2=0.900), and F = 5.174 TW 2.758, where TW is tail width in mm (r2=0.889) (both n=40; P< 0.001). Based on a log-linear model ANCOVA, size-specific fecundity in 1999 was 18% greater than in 1991, which in turn was 16% greater than during 1978–81. The additional increase in size-specific fecundity observed in 1999 is interpreted as evidence for further compensatory response to decreased lobster densities and increased per capita food resources that have resulted either from natural cyclic declines in productivity, high levels of harvest by the commercial lobster trap fishery, or both.

Seasonal distribution, abundance, and growth of young-of-the-year Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in Delaware Bay and adjacent marshes

We examined the spatial and temporal distribution, abundance, and growth of young-of-the-year (YOY) Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in Delaware Bay, one of the northernmost estuaries in which they consistently occur along the east coast of the United States. Sampling in Delaware Bay and in tidal creeks in salt marshes adjacent to the bay with otter trawls, plankton nets and weirs, between April and November 1996–99, collected approximately 85,000 YOY. Ingress of each year class into the bay and tidal creeks consistently occurred in the fall, and the first few YOY appeared in August. Larvae as small as 2–3 mm TL were collected in September and October 1996. Epibenthic individuals <25 mm TL were present each fall and again during spring of each year, but not in 1996 when low water temperatures in January and February apparently caused widespread mortality, resulting in their absence the following spring and summer. In 1998 and 1999, a second size class of smaller YOY entered the bay and tidal creeks in June. When YOY survived the winter, there was no evidence of growth until after April. Then the YOY grew rapidly through the summer in all habitats (0.8–1.4 mm/d from May through August). In the bay, they were most abundant from June to August over mud sediments in oligohaline waters. They were present in both subtidal and intertidal creeks in the marshes where they were most abundant from April to June in the mesohaline portion of the lower bay. The larger YOY began egressing out of the marshes in late summer, and the entire year class left the tidal creeks at lengths of 100–200 mm TL by October or November when the next year class was ingressing. These patterns of seasonal distribution and abundance in Delaware Bay and the adjacent marshes are similar to those observed in more southern estuaries along the east coast; however, growth is faster—in keeping with that in other northern estuaries.

Applications in adaptive cluster sampling of Gulf of Alaska rockfish

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) has been the subject of many publications about sampling aggregated populations. Choosing the criterion value that invokes ACS remains problematic. We address this problem using data from a June 1999 ACS survey for rockfish, specifically for Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus), and for shortraker (S. borealis) and rougheye (S. aleutianus) rockfish combined. Our hypotheses were that ACS would outperform simple random sampling (SRS) for S. alutus and would be more applicable for S. alutus than for S. borealis and S. aleutianus combined because populations of S. alutus are thought to be more aggregated. Three alternatives for choosing a criterion value were investigated. We chose the strategy that yielded the lowest criterion value and simulated the higher criterion values with the data after the survey. Systematic random sampling was conducted across the whole area to determine the lowest criterion value, and then a new systematic random sample was taken with adaptive sampling around each tow that exceeded the fixed criterion value. ACS yielded gains in precision (SE) over SRS. Bootstrapping showed that the distribution of an ACS estimator is approximately normal, whereas the SRS sampling distribution is skewed and bimodal. Simulation showed that a higher criterion value results in substantially less adaptive sampling with little tradeoff in precision. When time-efficiency was examined, ACS quickly added more samples, but sampling edge units caused this efficiency to be lessened, and the gain in efficiency did not measurably affect our conclusions. ACS for S. alutus should be incorporated with a fixed criterion value equal to the top quartile of previously collected survey data. The second hypothesis was confirmed because ACS did not prove to be more effective for S. borealis-S. aleutianus. Overall, our ACS results were not as optimistic as those previously published in the literature, and indicate the need for further study of this sampling method.

Assessment of sampling methods to estimate horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus L.) egg density in Delaware Bay

Each spring horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus L.) emerge from Delaware Bay to spawn and deposit their eggs on the foreshore of sandy beaches (Shuster and Botton, 1985; Smith et al., 2002a). From mid-May to early June, migratory shorebirds stopover in Delaware Bay and forage heavily on horseshoe crab eggs that have been transported up onto the beach (Botton et al., 1994; Burger et al., 1997; Tsipoura and Burger, 1999). Thus, estimating the quantity of horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay beaches can be useful for monitoring spawning activity and assessing the amount of forage available to migratory shorebirds.

Geographic and temporal patterns in size and maturity of the longfin inshore squid (Loligo pealeii) off the northeastern United States

Analysis of 32 years of standardized survey catches (1967–98) indicated differential distribution patterns for the longfin inshore squid (Loligo pealeii) over the northwest Atlantic U.S. continental shelf, by geographic region, depth, season, and time of day. Catches were greatest in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, where there were significantly greater catches in deep water during winter and spring, and in shallow water during autumn. Body size generally increased with depth in all seasons. Large catches of juveniles in shallow waters off southern New England during autumn resulted from inshore spawning observed during late spring and summer; large proportions of juveniles in the Mid-Atlantic Bight during spring suggest that substantial winter spawning also occurs. Few mature squid were caught in survey samples in any season; the majority of these mature squid were captured south of Cape Hatteras during spring. Spawning occurs inshore from late spring to summer and the data suggest that winter spawning occurs primarily south of Cape Hatteras.