Improving reporting of uncertainties in sea level rise assessments

Sea level rise (SLR) assessments are commonly used to identify the extent that coastal populations are at risk to flooding. However, the data and assumptions used to develop these assessments contain numerous sources and types of uncertainty, which limit confidence in the accuracy of modeled results. This study illustrates how the intersection of uncertainty in digital elevation models (DEMs) and SLR lead to a wide range of modeled outcomes. SLR assessments are then reviewed to identify the extent that uncertainty is documented in peer-reviewed articles. The paper concludes by discussing priorities needed to further understand SLR impacts. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Coastal plant growth and CO2 enrichment: Can the productivity of black needle rush keep pace with sea level rise?

The rate of sea level change has varied considerably over geological time, with rapid increases (0.25 cm yr-1) at the end of the last ice age to more modest increases over the last 4,000 years (0.04 cm yr-1; Hendry 1993). Due to anthropogenic contributions to climate change, however, the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase between 0.10 and 0.25 cm year-1 for many coastal areas (Warrick et al. 1996). Notwithstanding, it has been predicted that over the next 100 years, sea levels along the northeastern coast of North Carolina may increase by an astonishing 0.8 m (0.8 cm yr-1); through a combination of sea-level rise and coastal subsidence (Titus and Richman 2001; Parham et al. 2006). As North Carolina ranks third in the United States with land at or just above sea level, any additional sea rise may promote further deterioration of vital coastal wetland systems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Management of inland capture fisheries and challenges in fish production in Nigeria

The paper critically examines the trend in fish production in Nigeria. The problem of excessive mismanagement and lack of attention by relevant agencies are still common place in inland water bodies. The paper discusses these mismanagement practices which are non compliance with the existing rules and regulations on good fishing methods, uncontrollable, unorthodox and obnoxious fishing practices, destruction of the natural breeding grounds and the collapse of the fishery due to massive over fishing. The challenges posed by the fishing methods as well as the effect of different gears and mechanization of fishing crafts on fish production are discussed. The paper recommends ways to increase domestic fish production in inland water bodies, which include a well planned strategy of restocking the existing reservoirs after careful scientific study, enforcement of the existing laws and regulation based on community participation. Training of stakeholders on the code of practice for responsible fisheries (CPRF), extension of subsidies to fisher folks, the traditional practices, which encourage the adherence to close season and other fish conservation and utilization strategies, are also advocated

Time for a Sea Change: a Study of the Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation Measures and Marine Protected Areas Along Southern Thailand’s Andaman Sea Coastline

This study examines how Thailand’s biodiversity conservation measures affect fishing communities, especially in the marine protected areas (MPAs) on the Andaman Sea coastline. It documents the various efforts of the local fishing communities to protect the resources in the area. Also included are recommendations for government agencies, civil society and the international community. [PDF contains 94 pages]

Chrysosphaerella and the phytoplankton of the Little Sea, Dorset

The Little Sea is an 80-acre, shallow freshwater lake formed about a hundred years ago by sand-dunes cutting off a sea-inlet at Studland Bay, near Swanage. This work presents a general survey of the phytoplankton in the lake from October 1990 to December 1993. Many species were present throughout the year; others showed seasonal variations. Numerically, the diatoms, Monoraphidium and sometimes Rhodomonas, were the main constituents of the phytoplankton. One species of alga in the lake of particular interest is Chrysosphaerella longispina Lauterb. which, up to 1991, had only been recorded from five localities in Britain.

Limnology in Sicily: A history of fresh waters surrounded by the sea

The aim of this short article is to trace the history of limnology in Sicily, from the end of the last century up to the present, and pay a little homage to a scientist to whom limnology is deeply indebted: G.E. Hutchinson. Due to its insular and climatic conditions, Sicily is characterised by a drainage network formed by numerous short, torrent-like rivers, and by a few small, natural lakes. The geological characteristics of the island strongly condition the quality of these small waterbodies which generally have surface areas of less than 0.2 km super(2). The earliest observations on Sicilian lentic waters go back more than a century; in particular, at the end of the 19th century, some of the issues regarding the natural lakes had already been brought into focus. Subsequent studies on natural waterbodies concentrated on the geomorphology of landslide lakes or lakes created by the dissolution of the gypsum tableland. However, many of the waterbodies no longer exist because of land reclamation which took place up to the first half of the 1950s. During the last 35 years, there has been a notable increase in limnological publications. In addition, these studies show a more careful and integrated approach to the limnological aspects of waterbodies, compared with the early studies.

Plant nutrients and major ions in the Little Sea, Studland, Dorset

This short paper records some measurements made on the Little Sea, a shallow, coastal, acidic lake on Studland Heath, Dorset. The lake, formed about 100 years ago by dunes cutting off a sea inlet, has not received any input of agricultural fertilizers or other waste products for at least the last 30 years. It is a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). Samples of surface water were taken from the northern and southern ends of the lake at 3-monthly intervals, from July 1995 to April 1996. The first samples in July 1995 were taken during a period of drought; rain, sometimes very heavy, came in late September. With the exception of silicate, potassium and phosphate, there were no large changes in plant nutrient concentrations during the year. The concentration of nitrate-nitrogen was very low (close to the limits of analytical detection), but total phosphorus at ca. 30 mu g per litre was similar to concentrations found in some of the Cumbrian eutrophic lakes. The large number of algal species at low cell/colony concentrations suggested that the lake is mesotrophic. Sodium, chloride and magnesium in the lake water were close to the same proportions as those found in sea water. Dry and wet deposition of sea-salts on the lake surface and its catchment area probably is the major source of sodium, magnesium and chloride ions in the lake, and also accounts for about half of the mean potassium and sulphate concentrations.

A simple approach for the estimation of food consumption from growth rates at different environmental conditions and its application to juvenile cod (Gadus morhua L.) of a fjordic sea loch on the west coast of Scotland

Abstract Growth and condition of fish are functions of available food and environmental conditions. This led to the idea of using fish as a “consumption sensor” for the measurement of food intake over a defined period of time. A bio-physical model for the estimation of food consumption was developed based on the von Bertalanffy model. Whereas some of the input variables of the model, the initial and final lengths and masses of a fish and the temperature within the time period considered can easily be measured, internal characteristics of the species have to be determined indirectly. Three internal parameters are used in the model: the maintenance consumption at 0°C, the temperature dependence of this consumption and the food efficiency, the percentage of the ingested food utilized. Estimates of the parameters for a given species can be determined by feeding experiments. Here, data from published feeding experiments on juvenile cod, Gadus morhua L., were used to validate the model. The average of the relative error for the food intake predicted by the model for individual fish was about 24 %, indicating that fish used the food with different efficiencies. However, grouping the fish according to size classes and temperature lowered the relative error of the predicted food intake for the group to typically 5 %. For a group containing all fish of the feeding experiment the relative prediction error was about 2 %. Zusammenfassung Wachstum und Kondition der Fische sind von der verfügbaren Nahrung und von Umweltbedingungen abhängig. Dies führte zur Idee, Fisch als „Konsum-Sensor“ für die Messung der Nahrungsaufnahme über einen definierten Zeitraum zu verwenden. Auf Grundlage des von Bertalanffy-Modells wurde ein bio-physikalisches Modell zur Schätzung der Futteraufnahme entwickelt. Während einige der Eingangsgrößen des Modells leicht gemessen werden können (Anfangs- und Endlänge und -körpermasse der Fische und die Temperatur innerhalb des betrachteten Zeitraum), können interne Parameter der betrachteten Art nur indirekt bestimmt werden. Drei interne Parameter werden in dem Modell verwendet: Die Erhaltungskonsumtion bei 0° C, die Temperaturabhängigkeit dieser Rate und der Wirkungsgrad der Nahrung (der Anteil der Nahrung ,der aufgenommen und verwendet und nicht ungenutzt wieder ausgeschieden wird). Die Modellparameter für eine bestimmte Art können durch Fütterungsversuche bestimmt werden. Um das Modell zu validieren wurden Daten aus veröffentlichten Fütterungsversuchen mit juvenilen Kabeljau (Gadus morhua L.) verwendet. Modell und Wirklichkeit weichen in der Regel voneinander ab. Der durchschnittliche relative Fehler der durch das Modell vorhergesagten Nahrungsaufnahme betrug für Einzelfische etwa 24%, was darauf hinweist, dass einzelne Fisch die Nahrung mit unterschiedlichen Wirkungsgraden verwerten. Allerdings senkte die Gruppierung der Fische nach Größenklassen und Temperatur den relativen Vorhersagefehler für die Nahrungsaufnahme der Gruppe auf etwa 5%. Für alle Fische im Fütterungsversuch ist der relative Vorhersagefehler etwa 2%.

Value chain analysis for sea cucumber in the Philippines

This study examined the sea cucumber industry in the Philippines through the value chain lens. The intent was to identify effective pathways for the successful introduction of sandfish culture as livelihood support for coastal communities. Value chain analysis is a high-resolution analytical tool that enables industry examination at a detailed level. Previous industry assessments have provided a general picture of the sea cucumber industry in the country. The present study builds on the earlier work and supplies additional details for a better understanding of the industry's status and problems, especially their implications for the Australian Center for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) funded sandfish project "Culture of sandfish (Holothuria scabra) in Asia- Pacific" (FIS/2003/059). (PDF contains 54 pages)