Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Selection properties of the baited hooks used in the Cuban longline fishery of Campeche Bank, Gulf of Mexico

A description of the Cuban set longline fishery on Campeche Bank, Gulf of Mexico is given, with emphasis on the effects of different species of pelagic fishes used as bait. The target species is the red grouper Epinephelus morio, with incidental species consisting of other epinephelids (13%), lutjanids (5.4%) and sparids (1.6%).

Nesting Success of Kemp’s Ridley Sea Turtles, Lepidochelys kempi, at Rancho Nuevo, Tamaulipas, Mexico, 1982–2004

The Kemp’s ridley sea turtle, Lepidochelys kempi, was on the edge of extinction owing to a combination of intense egg harvesting and incidental capture in commercial fishing trawls. Results from a cooperative conservation strategy initiated in 1978 between Mexico and the United States to protect and restore the Kemp’s ridley turtle at the main nesting beach at Rancho Nuevo, Tamaulipas, Mexico are assessed. This strategy appears to be working as there are signs that the species is starting to make a recovery. Recovery indicators include: 1) increased numbers of nesting turtles, 2) increased numbers of 100+ turtle nesting aggregations (arribadas), 3) an expanding nesting season now extending from March to August, and 4) significant nighttime nesting since 2003. The population low point at Rancho Nuevo was in 1985 (706 nests) and the population began to significantly increase in 1997 (1,514 nests), growing to over 4,000 nests in 2004. The size and numbers of arribadas have increased each year since 1983 but have yet to exceed the 1,000+ mark; most arribadas are still 200–800+ turtles.

Estimates of Marine Mammal, Sea Turtle, and Seabird Mortality in the California Drift Gillnet Fishery for Swordfish and Thresher Shark, 1996–2002

Estimates of incidental marine mammal, sea turtle, and seabird mortality in the California drift gillnet fishery for broadbill swordfish, Xiphias gladius, and common thresher shark, Alopias vulpinus, are summarized for the 7-year period, 1996 to 2002. Fishery observer coverage was 19% over the period (3,369 days observed/17,649 days fished). An experiment to test the effectiveness of acoustic pingers on reducing marine mammal entanglements in this fishery began in 1996 and resulted in statistically significant reductions in marine mammal bycatch. The most commonly entangled marine mammal species were the short-beaked common dolphin, Delphinus delphis; California sea lion, Zalophus californianus; and northern right whale dolphin, Lissodelphis borealis. Estimated mortality by species (CV and observed mortality in parentheses) from 1996 to 2002 is 861 (0.11, 133) short-beaked common dolphins; 553 (0.16, 103) California sea lions; 151 (0.25, 31) northern right whale dolphins; 150 (0.21, 27) northern elephant seals, Mirounga angustirostris; 54 (0.41, 10) long-beaked common dolphins, Delphinus capensis; 44 (0.53, 6) Dall’s porpoise, Phocoenoides dalli; 19 (0.60, 5) Risso’s dolphins, Grampus griseus; 11 (0.71, 2) gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus; 7 (0.83, 2) sperm whales, Physeter macrocephalus; 7 (0.96, 1) short-finned pilot whales, Globicephala macrorhychus; 12 (1.06, 1) minke whales, Balaenoptera acutorostrata; 5 (1.05, 1) fin whales, Balaenoptera physalus; 11 (0.68, 2) unidentified pinnipeds; 33 (0.52, 4) leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea; 18 (0.57, 3) loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta; 13 (0.73, 3) northern fulmars, Fulmarus glacialis; and 6 (0.86, 2) unidentified birds.

The Ragfish, Icosteus aenigmaticus Lockington, 1880: A Synthesis of Historical and Recent Records From the North Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea

Knowledge of the distribution and biology of the ragfish, Icosteus aenigmaticus, an aberrant deepwater perciform of the North Pacific Ocean, has increased slowly since the first description of the species in the 1880’s which was based on specimens retrieved from a fish monger’s table in San Francisco, Calif. As a historically rare, and subjectively unattractive appearing noncommercial species, ichthyologists have only studied ragfish from specimens caught and donated by fishermen or by the general public. Since 1958, I have accumulated catch records of >825 ragfish. Specimens were primarily from commercial fishermen and research personnel trawling for bottom and demersal species on the continental shelves of the eastern North Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, and the western Pacific Ocean, as well as from gillnet fisheries for Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus spp., in the north central Pacific Ocean. Available records came from four separate sources: 1) historical data based primarily on published and unpublished literature (1876–1990), 2) ragfish delivered fresh to Humboldt State University or records available from the California Department of Fish and Game of ragfish caught in northern California and southern Oregon bottom trawl fisheries (1950–99), 3) incidental catches of ragfish observed and recorded by scientific observers of the commercial fisheries of the eastern Pacific Ocean and catches in National Marine Fisheries Service trawl surveys studying these fisheries from 1976 to 1999, and 4) Japanese government research on nearshore fisheries of the northwestern Pacific Ocean (1950–99). Limited data on individual ragfish allowed mainly qualitative analysis, although some quantitative analysis could be made with ragfish data from northern California and southern Oregon. This paper includes a history of taxonomic and common names of the ragfish, types of fishing gear and other techniques recovering ragfish, a chronology of range extensions into the North Pacific and Bering Sea, reproductive biology of ragfish caught by trawl fisheries off northern California and southern Oregon, and topics dealing with early, juvenile, and adult life history, including age and growth, food habits, and ecology. Recommendations for future study are proposed, especially on the life history of juvenile ragfish (5–30 cm FL) which remains enigmatic.

Historical Exploitation of the California Sea Lion, Zalophus californianus, in México

The exploitation of California sea lions, Zalophus californianus, in Mexican waters can be divided into four periods as defined by political characteristics of the country: Prehispanic, Colonial, Independent, and Postrevolutionary. During the first period (pre 1533), Native Americans took sea lions at low levels. During the second (1534–1821) and the third (1822–1911) periods, most exploitation was by foreigners and was incidental to other marine mammal harvests. During the Postrevolutionary period (after 1911), sea lions were exploited by Mexican and U.S. citizens for several commercial uses. Exploitation officially ended in 1982, although some small-scale poaching still occurs.

An Accounting of the Sources of Steller Sea Lion, Eumetopias jubatus, Mortality

During 1991–2000, the west-are additional mortalities that fueled the ern stock of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias decline. We tabulated the levels of reported jubatus, declined at 5.03% (SE = 0.25%) anthropogenic sources of mortality (sub- per year, statistically significant rates (P < sistence, incidental take in fisheries, and 0.10) in all but the eastern Aleutian Islands research), estimated another (illegal shoot-region. The greatest rates of declines oc-ing), then approximated levels of predation curred in the eastern and central Gulf of Alas-(killer whales and sharks). We attempted to ka and the western Aleutian Islands (> 8.2% partition the various sources of “additional” per year). Using a published correction mortalities as anthropogenic and as addifactor, we estimated the total non-pup pop-tional mortality including some predation. ulation size in Alaska of the western stock We classified 436 anthropogenic mortalities of Steller sea lions to be about 33,000 ani-and 769 anthropogenic plus some predation mals. Based on a published life table and mortalities as “mortality above replace-the current rate of decline, we estimate that ment”; this accounted for 26% and 46% of the total number of mortalities of non-pup the estimated total level of “mortality above Steller sea lions during 1991–2000 was replacement”, respectively. The remaining about 6,383 animals; of those, 4,718 (74%) mortality (74% and 54%, respectively) was are mortalities that would have occurred if not attributed to a specific cause and may be the population were stable, and 1,666 (26%) the result of nutritional stress.

A Preliminary Study of the Marine Biota at Navassa Island, Caribbean Sea

A preliminary study of reef fish and sharks was conducted at Navassa Island in the Caribbean Sea during a 24-h period beginning 9 September 1998. Conducting a study at Navassa Island was of particular interest because exploitation of Navassa Island’s fishery resources has been considered minimal due to its remote location (southwest of the Windward Passage, Caribbean Sea) and lack of human habitation. Reef fish (and associated habitats) were assessed with stationary underwater video cameras at 3 survey sites; sharks were assessed by bottom longlining at 5 survey sites. Fifty-seven reef fish identifications to lowest possible taxon were made from video footage. Longline catches produced 3 shark species and 3 incidental catch species. When results from the 1998 National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) project are combined with a previous 1977 NMFS survey of Navassa Island, 27 fish families, 79 fish identifications to lowest possible taxon, 4 invertebrate orders or families, 3 coraline families, and 2 macroalgae phyla are reported.

A Brief History of Bycatch Management Measures for Eastern Bering Sea Groundfish Fisheries

Bycatch management measures instituted for groundfish fisheries of the eastern Bering Sea have focused on reducing the incidental capture and injury of species traditionally harvested by other fisheries. These species include king crab, Paralithodes and Lithodes spp.; Tanner crab, Chionoecetes spp.; Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi; Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis; and Pacific salmon and steelhead trout, Oncorhynchus spp. Collectively, these species are called "prohibited species," as they cannot be retained as bycatch in groundfish fisheries and must be discarded with a minimum of injury.

Occurrence and Behavior of Juvenile Red Snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, on Commercial Shrimp Fishing Grounds in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, is subject to significant overfishing in U.S. Gulf of Mexico waters, and regulations are being implemented to reduce fishing mortality and restore them to a 20% spawning potential ratio by the year 2009. One source of mortality that must be reduced to achieve this goal is the incidental capture ofjuvenile red snappers in shrimp, Penaeus spp., trawls. NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service is conducting research to develop shrimp trawl modifications to reduce the snapper bycatch. An important part of this research is the study of juvenile red snapper behavior on commercial shrimp grounds and in relation to trawling gear. An area of high juvenile red snapper abundance was identified off the coast of Mississippi. Most snappers were observed around structures or objects on the bottom which they appeared to use for refuge or orientation. Those ranging over barren bottom had no apparent point of orientation. When encountered by shrimp trawls, most juvenile snappers rose above the trawl footrope and fell back into the trawl. These observations have directed research toward modifying shrimp trawls to release juvenile red snappers after entry, rather than preventing them from entering a shrimp trawl.

The By-catch From the Artisanal Shrimp Trawl Fishery, Gulf of Paria, Trinidad

Samples of shrimp trawl catches were collected from a commercial artisanal vessel fishing inside the 6-fm isobath in the Gulf of Paria, Trinidad. From August 1986 to May 1987, 34 late evening-early morning trawl trips were made and 97 hauls were sampled. Annual ratio estimates were 9 (SD 1.3) finfish:shrimp and 14.7 (SD 2.0) by-catch: shrimp, with the highest ratios observed August through December and the lowest from late January through May, the dry season. Extrapolation of ratios, using shrimp catch statistics, indicates that for 1986, 974,000 kg of finfish and 620,000 kg of crabs, Callinectes spp., were caught incidentally by artisanal shrimp trawlers fishing in the Gulf of Paria. Of this total incidental catch (1,594,000 kg), about 1,500,000 kg were discarded (94 percent). Four penaeid shrimp species are targeted: Penaeus schmitti, P. notialis, P. subtilis, and Xiphopenaeus kroyeri. Callinectes spp. were caught in large quantities from Augustto mid-January. Small (4-15 cm) pelagic and demersal species of little commercial importance dominated the finfish by-catch: Harengula spp., Cetengraulis edentulus, Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Eucinostomous spp., Diapterus rhombeus, and Cyclopsetta spp. Altogether, the monthly percentage of the species ranged from 70 to 85 percent of the total finfish by-catch.

Size-related Hooking Mortality of Incidentally Caught Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

Mortality associated with the incidental catch and release by commercial trollers of two size classes of chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, was assessed. Observed cumulative mortality 4-6 days after hooking was 18.3 percent for sublegal-sizefish « 66 cm FL) and 19.0 percent for legal-sizefish. Size of fish was not significantly related to mortality; however, when the results were combined with data from a previous experiment, there was a significant inverse relationship between fish length and mortality. Hooking mortality estimates calculated from tagging experiments and observed relative mortality of legal-and sublegal-size fish held in net pens, were used to derive a range for total hooking mortality of 22.0-26.4 percent for sublegal-size chinook salmon and 18.5-26.4 percent for legal-size chinook salmon.

Temporal and spatial aspects of bottlenose dolphin occurrence in coastal and estuarine waters near Charleston, South Carolina

The spatial and temporal occurrence of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the coastal and estuarine waters near Charleston, SC were evaluated. Sighting and photographic data from photo-identification (ID), remote biopsy, capture-release and radio-tracking studies, conducted from 1994 through 2003, were analyzed in order to further delineate residence patterns of Charleston area bottlenose dolphins. Data from 250 photo-ID, 106 remote biopsy, 15 capture-release and 83 radio-tracking surveys were collected in the Stono River Estuary (n = 247), Charleston Harbor (n = 86), North Edisto River (n = 54), Intracoastal Waterway (n = 26) and the coastal waters north and south of Charleston Harbor (n = 41). Coverage for all survey types was spatially and temporally variable, and in the case of biopsy, capture-release and radio-tracking surveys, data analyzed in this report were collected incidental to other research. Eight-hundred and thirty-nine individuals were photographically identified during the study period. One-hundred and fifteen (13.7%) of the 839 photographically identified individuals were sighted between 11-40 times, evidence of consistent occurrence in the Charleston area (i.e., site fidelity). Adjusted sighting proportions (ASP), which reflect an individual’s sighting frequency in a subarea relative to other subareas after adjusting for survey effort, were analyzed in order to evaluate dolphin spatial occurrence. Forty-three percent (n = 139) of dolphins that qualified for ASP analyses exhibited a strong subarea affiliation while the remaining 57% (n = 187) showed no strong subarea preference. Group size data were derived from field estimates of 2,342 dolphin groups encountered in the five Charleston subareas. Group size appeared positively correlated with degree of “openness” of the body of water where dolphins were encountered; and for sightings along the coast, group size was larger during summer months. This study provides valuable information on the complex nature of bottlenose dolphin spatial and temporal occurrence near Charleston, SC. In addition, it helps us to better understand the stock structure of dolphins along the Atlantic seaboard.

Feasibility of using sea surface temperature imagery to mitigate cheloniid sea turtle–fishery interactions off the coast of northeastern USA

As sea turtles migrate along the Atlantic coast of the USA, their incidental capture in fisheries is a significant source of mortality. Because distribution of marine cheloniid turtles appears to be related, in part, to sea surface temperature (SST), the ability to predict water temperature over the continental shelf could be useful in minimizing turtle–fishery interactions. We analyzed 10 yr of advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) SST imagery to estimate the proportion of 18 spatial zones, nearshore and offshore of Hatteras, North Carolina, USA (35° N), to north of Cape Sable, Nova Scotia (44° N), at temperatures >10 to 15°C, by week. Detailed examples for 11°C, the temperature employed by some management actions in the study area, and for 14°C, the lowest temperature at which turtles were sighted by some studies in the area, demonstrate a predictable pattern of rapid warming in March and April, followed by rapid cooling in October and November, with nearshore waters warming more rapidly than those offshore. Of those loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta that stranded, were sighted, or were incidentally captured between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, those at lower latitudes occurred when 25% or more of the area reached a water temperature of 11°C, while those in the northern zones did not occur until 50% or more of the area had reached a water temperature of 14°C. This analysis provides a means of predicting marine cheloniid turtle presence, which can be helpful in regulating fisheries that seasonally interact with turtles.

Estimation of bycatch in shrimp trawl fisheries: a comparison of estimation methods using field data and simulated data

Bycatch, or the incidental catch of nontarget organisms during fi shing operations, is a major issue in U.S. shrimp trawl fisheries. Because bycatch is typically discarded at sea, total bycatch is usually estimated by extrapolating from an observed bycatch sample to the entire fleet with either mean-per-unit or ratio estimators. Using both field observations of commercial shrimp trawlers and computer simulations, I compared five methods for generating bycatch estimates that were used in past studies, a mean-per-unit estimator and four forms of the ratio estimator, respectively: 1) the mean fish catch per unit of effort, where unit effort was a proxy for sample size, 2) the mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, 3) the ratio of mean fish catch to mean shrimp catch, 4) the mean of the ratios of fish catch per time fished (a variable measure of effort), and 5) the ratio of mean fish catch per mean time fished. For field data, different methods used to estimate bycatch of Atlantic croaker, spot, and weakfish yielded extremely different results, with no discernible pattern in the estimates by method, geographic region, or species. Simulated fishing fleets were used to compare bycatch estimated by the fi ve methods with “actual” (simulated) bycatch. Simulations were conducted by using both normal and delta lognormal distributions of fish and shrimp and employed a range of values for several parameters, including mean catches of fish and shrimp, variability in the catches of fish and shrimp, variability in fishing effort, number of observations, and correlations between fish and shrimp catches. Results indicated that only the mean per unit estimators provided statistically unbiased estimates, while all other methods overestimated bycatch. The mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, the method used in the South Atlantic Bight before the 1990s, gave the most biased estimates. Because of the statistically significant two- and 3-way interactions among parameters, it is unlikely that estimates generated by one method can be converted or corrected to estimates made by another method: therefore bycatch estimates obtained with different methods should not be compared directly.