The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Fish and habitat community assessments on North Carolina shipwrecks: potential sites for detecting climate change in the graveyard of the Atlantic

The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary (MNMS) was the nation’s first sanctuary, originally established in 1975 to protect the famous civil war ironclad shipwreck, the USS Monitor. Since 2008, sanctuary sponsored archeological research has branched out to include historically significant U-boats and World War II shipwrecks within the larger Graveyard of the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. These shipwrecks are not only important for their cultural value, but also as habitat for a wide diversity of fishes, invertebrates and algal species. Additionally, due to their unique location within an important area for biological productivity, the sanctuary and other culturally valuable shipwrecks within the Graveyard of the Atlantic are potential sites for examining community change. For this reason, from June 8-30, 2010, biological and ecological investigations were conducted at four World War II shipwrecks (Keshena, City of Atlanta, Dixie Arrow, EM Clark), as part of the MNMS 2010 Battle of the Atlantic (BOTA) research project. At each shipwreck site, fish community surveys were conducted and benthic photo-quadrats were collected to characterize the mobile conspicuous fish, smaller prey fish, and sessile invertebrate and algal communities. In addition, temperature sensors were placed at all four shipwrecks previously mentioned, as well as an additional shipwreck, the Manuela. The data, which establishes a baseline condition to use in future assessments, suggest strong differences in both the fish and benthic communities among the surveyed shipwrecks based on the oceanographic zone (depth). In order to establish these shipwrecks as sites for detecting community change it is suggested that a subset of locations across the shelf be selected and repeatedly sampled over time. In order to reduce variability within sites for both the benthic and fish communities, a significant number of surveys should be conducted at each location. This sampling strategy will account for the natural differences in community structure that exist across the shelf due to the oceanographic regime, and allow robust statistical analyses of community differences over time.

An ecological characterization of the marine resources of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Part I: Historical data synthesis

From the 1940s until 2003, portions of the island of Vieques, a municipality within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, were used by the US Navy as a base and training facility, resulting in development and zoning history that differ in comparison to other Caribbean islands. The majority of former Navy lands are now under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Interior’s Fish and Wildlife Service as a National Wildlife Refuge, while a smaller percentage of land was transferred to the Vieques municipality and the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust. An analysis of the distribution and status of the marine resources is timely in light of the recent land transfer, increases in development and tourism, and potential changes in marine zoning around the island. To meet this need, NOAA’s Biogeography Branch, in cooperation with the Office of Response and Restoration and other local and regional partners, conducted Part I of an ecological characterization to integrate historical data and research into a synthesis report. The overall objective of this report is to provide resource managers and residents a comprehensive characterization of the marine resources of Vieques to support research, monitoring, and management. For example, knowledge of the spatial distribution of physical features, habitats, and biological communities is necessary to make an informed decision of the establishment and placement of a marine protected area (MPA). The report is divided into chapters based on the physical environment (e.g., climate, geology, bathymetry), habitat types (e.g., reefs and hardbottom, seagrasses, mangroves) and major faunal groups (e.g. fish, turtles, birds). Each section includes five subsections: an overview, description of the relevant literature, methods of analysis, information on the distribution, status and trends of the particular resource, and a discussion of ecological linkages with other components of the Vieques marine ecosystem and surrounding environment. The physical environment of Vieques is similar to other islands within the Greater Antilles chain, with some distinctions. The warm, tropical climate of Vieques, mediated by the northeasterly trade winds, is characterized by a dry season (December-April) and a rainy season (May-November), the latter of which is characterized by the occasional passage of tropical cyclones. Compared to mainland Puerto Rico, Vieques is characterized by lower elevation, less annual precipitation, and higher average temperatures. The amount of annual precipitation also varies spatially within Vieques, with the western portion of the island receiving higher amounts of rainfall than further east. While the North Equatorial Current dominates the circulation pattern in the Greater Antilles region, small scale current patterns specific to Vieques are not as well characterized. These physical processes are important factors mitigating the distribution and composition of marine benthic habitats around Vieques. In general, the topography of Vieques is characterized by rolling hills. Mt. Pirata, the tallest point at 301 m, is located near the southwest coast. In the absence of island wide sedimentation measurements, information on land cover, slope, precipitation, and soil type were used to estimate relative erosion potential and sediment delivery for each watershed. While slope and precipitation amount are the primary driving factors controlling runoff, land use practices such as urban development, military activity, road construction, and agriculture can increase the delivery of pollution and sediments to coastal waters. Due to the recent land transfer, increased development and tourism is expected, which may result in changes in the input of sediments to the coastal environment.

An oceanographic characterizations of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary and Pacific Northwest: interpretive summary of ocean climate and regional processes through satellite remote sensing

This report presents the results of a two-year investigation and summary of oceanographic satellite data obtained from multiple operational data providers and sources, spanning years of operational data collection. Long-term summaries of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST fronts, Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA), surface currents, ocean color chlorophyll and turbidity, and winds are provided. Merged satellite oceanographic data revealed information on: (1) seasonal cycles and timing of transition periods; (2) linkages between seasonal effects (warming and cooling), upwelling processes and transport; and (3) nutrient/sediment sources, sinks, and physical limiting factors controlling surface response for Olympic Coast marine environments. These data and information can be used for building relevant hind cast models, ecological forecasts, and regional environmental indices (e.g. upwelling, climate, “hot spot”) on biological distribution and/or response in the PNW.

Climate impacts on U. S. living marine resources: National Marine Fisheries Services concerns, activities and needs

With the increasing recognition that climate change is occurring and having large impacts on living marine resources, a sound ecosystem approach to management of those resources requires both understanding how climate affects ecosystems and integration of that understanding into management processes. The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) must identify how changing climatic conditions will impact its mission and must be prepared to adapt to these changes. This document identifies the climate related ecosystem concerns in the regional marine ecosystems for which NMFS has living marine resource management responsibilities, what NMFS is currently doing to address these concerns, what NMFS must do going forward to address these concerns, and what climate information is needed to integrate climate into resource management. The regional ecosystems included in this analysis are: the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf; the Southeast U.S. Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. Caribbean; the California Current Ecosystem; the Alaskan Ecosystem Complex; the Pacific Island Ecosystem Complex; the Eastern Tropical Pacific; North Pacific Highly Migratory Species; and the Antarctic.

Movements, behavior, and habitat selection of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, ascertained through archival tags

Ninety-six bigeye tuna (88– 134 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival (electronic data storage) tags near fish-aggregating devices (FADs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) during April 2000. Twenty-nine fish were recaptured, and the data from twenty-seven tags were successfully downloaded and processed. Time at liberty ranged from 8 to 446 days, and data for 23 fish at liberty for 30 days or more are presented. The accuracy in geolocation estimates, derived from the light level data, is about 2 degrees in latitude and 0.5 degrees in longitude in this region. The movement paths derived from the filtered geolocation estimates indicated that none of the fish traveled west of 110°W during the period between release and recapture. The null hypothesis that the movement path is random was rejected in 17 of the 22 statistical tests of the observed movement paths. The estimated mean velocity was 117 km/d. The fish exhibited occasional deep-diving behavior, and some dives exceeded 1000 m where temperatures were less than 3°C. Evaluations of timed depth records, resulted in the discrimination of three distinct behaviors: 54.3% of all days were classified as unassociated (with a floating object) type-1 behavior, 27.7% as unassociated type-2 behavior, and 18.7% as behavior associated with a floating object. The mean residence time at floating objects was 3.1 d. Data sets separated into day and night were used to evaluate diel differences in behavior and habitat selection. When the fish were exhibiting unassociated type-1 behavior (diel vertical migrations), they were mostly at depths of less than 50 m (within the mixed layer) throughout the night, and during the day between 200 and 300 m and 13° and 14°C. They shifted their average depths in conjunction with dawn and dusk events, presumably tracking the deep-scattering layer as a foraging strategy. There were also observed changes in the average nighttime depth distributions of the fish in relation to moon phase.

Climate signals in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and regression analysis are used to investigate zonally averaged seasonal temperature anomaly patterns and trends in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The first four EOFs explain 64 percent of the temperature variance and can be related, respectively, to the solar flux (SF) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and turbidity (TB), and to ENSO. The signal of the fourth EOF is modulated in January to March by the solar flux, with the sense of the modulation determined by the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

1988 summer drought over the Great Plains: some causes and predictions

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1988 summer drought over much of the United States is described in terms of hemispheric mid-tropospheric flow patterns, temperature and precipitation anomalies, and sea surface temperature patterns. This drought was similar to earlier Great Plains droughts, although spatially more extensive than most. Three attempts to predict this drought from antecedent spring were moderately successful, though no one anticipated its severity and extent. ... A modified barotropic model iterating from a mean summer estimate of seasonal forcing from the May mid-tropospheric height pattern was reasonably successful in forecasting the drought. Sea surface temperature indications show that cold water (La Niña) along the equator subsequent to the 1987 El Niño, while contributory, cannot be considered a principal cause of the drought, since earlier cold water episodes did not produce drought, and other drought episodes occurred in the absence of cold equatorial waters.

Can a climate record be extracted from giant sequoia tree rings?

Extreme low growth events in giant sequoia ring-width index series coincide with severe droughts in the San Joaquin drainage, on whose eastern flank the sequoia groves stand. Comparison with a network of 102 largely moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from western North America suggests that this relationship has been stable for at least 380 years. The twentieth century is not unusual in the frequency of these events. We expect the growth record will soon be replicated for over 2000 years at two locations.

Holocene fossil pollen records of Douglas fir in northwestern California: reconstruction of past climate

Douglas fir is one of the most important trees in northwestern California. Regional pollen records suggest that it has become prominent only in the late Holocene. The primary cause for this change is probably southward stabilization of the mean airstream.