The California flooding rains during February, 1986 [abstract]

After an unusually strong and persistent pattern of atmospheric circulation over the United State[s] in Fall 1985, it became quite changeable (although high amplitude anomalies still prevailed). Following a fall that was cold in the West and warm in the East with heavy precipitation, a high pressure ridge set in over the West during December, with generally light precipitation over most of the country. Throughout the winter, the central North Pacific was very active, with large negative atmospheric pressure anomalies centered at about 45°N, l60°W. This activity may have been encouraged by an enhanced meridional eastern North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, with positive SST anomalies in the subtropics and negative anomalies in midlatitudes. However, in January, the western high pressure ridge remained strong and temperatures were remarkably warm, increasing the threat of drought in California after the two previous dry winters. However, in February, storms from a greatly expanded and southerly displaced Aleutian Low broke into the West Coast. An unusual siege from February 11 to February 20 flooded central and northern California, with very heavy precipitation and record to near-record runoff. Upwards of 50 percent of annual average precipitation fell on locations from the upper San Joaquin to the Feather River drainage basins, and the largest flow since observations began in the early 1900's was recorded on the Sacramento River at Sacramento. The atmospheric pattern that was responsible for this remarkable stormy spell developed when the western high pressure retrograded to the northwest into the Aleutians, accompanied by the strengthened and southerly extended storm tract that moved into California. Although exact details vary from case to case, this episode displayed meteorological conditions similar to those in several other historical California winter flood events. These included a long duration of very strong westerly to southwesterly winds over a long subtropical fetch into California. Much of the precipitation during this series of storms was orographically induced by the moisture laden flow rising over the Sierra ranges. Due to the warm air mass, snow levels were relatively high (about 7500 feet) during the heaviest precipitation, resulting in copious runoff.

The great February 1986 flood [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There were many similarities between the February 1986 storm and that of December 1964 and also December 1955. The 1964 storm hit hardest a little further north and the North Coast took the brunt of that storm. December 1955 also produced higher north coastal area runoff. December 1955 produced greater peaks in the central part of the state than the 1964 flood and is perhaps more comparable south of the Lake Tahoe-American River area. But the real surprise this time was the volume. Four reservoirs, Folsom, Black Butte, Pardee, and Comanche, were filled completely and became surcharged (storing more water than the designed capacity). The 10 day total rainfall amounted to half the normal annual totals at many precipitation stations. The February 1986 flood is a vivid reminder of the extremes of California climate and the value of the extensive system of flood control works in the state. Before the storm, especially in January, there was much concern about the dryness of the water year. Then with the deluge, California's flood control systems were tested. By and large the system worked preventing untold damage and misery for most dwellers in the flat lands.

Reconstructed drought history, north-central Great Basin, 1600-1982 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tree-ring chronologies, developed from cores from Pinyon pines growing on climatically sensitive sites in the north-central Great Basin, have been used to reconstruct precipitation and drought histories of the area from A.D. 1600 to 1982. Analysis of these hydrologic time series helps to place current climatic conditions into the perspective of the past 383 years (since 1600). ... The years 1934 and 1959 were the first and fourth driest while 1934 had the lowest July Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of the reconstructed records. Nevertheless, the decade of the 1930's is only the seventh driest since 1600; the decade 1953-1962 ranks as the second driest. The driest non-overlapping decade since 1600 was 1856-1865. Interestingly, the second wettest decade was 1932-1941. An examination of 30-year mean precipitation data shows that the driest 30-year period was 1871-1900; 1931-1960 ranks as the fourth driest. The current 30-year period (1951-1980) ranks twelfth.

U.S. west coast relative sea levels from tide gauges [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Examining secular changes in relative sea level along the U.S. west coast, we have identified strong tectonic signals. Tectonism exists not only on a coherent plate-wide scale (assuming a rigid plate approximation), but also on a sub-plate scale. In fact, differential tectonism between exotic or suspect geological terrain explains much of the spatial patterns of west coast tide-gauge data. Peltier's isostatic model appears not to explain the spatial pattern, implying glacio-isostatic adjustment is not the dominant contribution to the low-frequency signals. Eustatic effects cannot be identified unambiguously. These studies suggest several major questions/observations with regard to relative sea-level studies ...

Seasonality in the coastal ocean of North America, 35°N - 48°N [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The seasonal cycles of coastal wind stress, adjusted sea level height (ASL), shelf currents and water temperatures off the west coast of North America (35°N to 48°N) were estimated by fitting annual and semiannual harmonics to data from 1981-1983. Longer records of monthly ASL indicate that these two harmonics adequately represent the long-term monthly average seasonal cycle, and that the current measurement period is long enough to define the seasonal cycles, with relatively small errors in magnitude and phase.

Topic 1. Some steric-height features of the water off the Pacific coast of Canada; Topic 2. Possible warming of the water at station P in the northeast Pacific during 1956-1984 [abstract]

TOPIC 1: In terms of seasonal scale, temperature effect dominates the annual change of steric height in the open ocean whereas salinity effect controls it along the continental shelf. Large portion of the annual change of height relative to the 1000-db surface is contained in the upper 100m layer. However, in interannual scale large anomalies of steric height in the open ocean, are more often than not, caused by halosteric rather than thermosteric effect. At least in the open ocean the heights are almost totally determined by the behavior of deep water. Their interannual variability appears to be related to the cumulative effect of Eckman pumping. TOPIC 2: There is a "trend" that over the past 28 years the water at Station P has warmed. Least-square analysis indicates that this warming may be significant but shortening of the time-series data by approximately 10 years fails to show that this is the case. These "trends" have to be interpreted with care. The warming may be "apparent" in that it is not indicated clearly in the deep isopynal surfaces which, during the above period, have deepened. Thus warming at the isobaric surfaces may be the effect of the downward migration of the isopynal surfaces.

Climatological data in Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): This is a previous presentation of what has been observed in points spread in Mexico. The existing data amount is large enough that an atlas was given out in 1977. This atlas has information which goes back to the beginning of the country. The original data sets from which this atlas was issued exist in a variety of storage forms ranging from simple paper blocks up to books and magnetic tapes.

An overview of 1000 years of tropical climatic variability from ice cores from the Andes of southern Peru [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Each summer between 1976 and 1984 research was conducted on the Quelccaya Ice Cap with one central objective, to recover an ice core to bedrock from which an approximate 1000 year climatic history for tropical South America could be reconstructed. In 1983 that central objective was accomplished by recovering one core 155 meters in length containing 1350 years and a second core of 163.6 meters containing more than 1500 years of climatic history. ... The most significant climatic event in tropical South America over the last 1500 years was the "Little Ice Age" which is recorded between 1490 to 1880 A.D. in these ice core records. Records from the summit of the Quelccaya Ice Cap show that during the "Little Ice Age" period there was (1) a general increase in particulates (both insoluble and soluble, starting around 1490 A.D. and ending abruptly in 1880 A.D.; (2) an initial increase in net accumulation (1500-1720 A.D.) followed by a period of decreased net accumulation (1720-1860 A.D.); (3) more negative delta-O-18 values beginning in the 1520's and ending around 1880 A.D. The "Little Ice Age" event is evident as a perturbation in all five ice core parameters.

Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

Hydrologic variability related to El Nino in the Pacific Northwest [abstract]

A preliminary statistical analysis was undertaken to evaluate whether the effect of El Nino events is apparent in variables related to hydrologic behavior. Annual precipitation, temperature and streamflow were used for three locations in Oregon representing coastal, Willamette Valley/Cascade and eastern Oregon regions. The mean and variance for periods of El Nino occurrence vs. those with no El Nino were computed. Numerical differences were observed but were not consistent across all stations. The coastal area showed a decrease in mean precipitation and increase in mean streamflow during El Nino events. Other stations showed a positive increase in mean for both precipitation and streamflow for El Nino events. Variance of precipitation was greater in the coastal area but smaller in other areas and vice versa for streamflow during El Nino events. Statistical analyses indicated no significant differences of means, variances or distributions using nonparametric tests for El Nino vs. non-El Nino series.

High-resolution natural recording systems: intercomparisons of the response to interannual climatic variability [abstract]

The goal of this work is to examine the properties of recording mechanisms which are common to continuously recording high-resolution natural systems in which climatic signals are imprinted and preserved as proxy records. These systems produce seasonal structures as an indirect response to climatic variability over the annual cycle. We compare the proxy records from four different high-resolution systems: the Quelccaya ice cap of the Peruvian Andes; composite tree ring growth from southern California and the southwestern United States; and the marine varve sedimentation systems in the Santa Barbara basin (off California, United States) and in the Gulf of California, Mexico. An important focus of this work is to indicate how the interannual climatic signal is recorded in a variety of different natural systems with vastly different recording mechanisms and widely separated in space. These high-resolution records are the products of natural processes which should be comparable, to some degree, to human-engineered systems developed to transmit and record physical quantities. We therefore present a simple analogy of a data recording system as a heuristic model to provide some unifying concepts with which we may better understand the formation of the records. This analogy assumes special significance when we consider that natural proxy records are the principal means to extend our knowledge of climatic variability into the past, beyond the limits of instrumentally recorded data.

The influence of North Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the West [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The annual cycle and non-seasonal variability of streamflow over a network of stations in western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. The phase lag between the annual cycle of streamflow and precipitation varies considerably over this network, as does the persistence of monthly streamflow anomalies. This lag effect appears to be largely a function of the relative amount of snow laid down in a particular basin. In addition to the rather strong annual cycle that exists in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of streamflow anomalies that is related to the interplay between the temperature and precipitation annual cycles; of particular importance is the existence of stored water in the form of a snow pack.

Climatic indicators in an ice core from the Yukon [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Stable isotope data obtained from snow and ice cores retrieved from an altitude of 5340m on Mt. Logan (60°30'N; 140°36'W) indicate that "isotopic seasons" are not generally in phase with calendar seasons. The former are phase lagged with respect to the latter by up to several months and appear to be correlated with SST'S and ocean heat transfer curves and/or the position of the Aleutian low rather than with air temperature or the temperature difference between the ocean surface and the core site.

Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.