U.S. west coast relative sea levels from tide gauges [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Examining secular changes in relative sea level along the U.S. west coast, we have identified strong tectonic signals. Tectonism exists not only on a coherent plate-wide scale (assuming a rigid plate approximation), but also on a sub-plate scale. In fact, differential tectonism between exotic or suspect geological terrain explains much of the spatial patterns of west coast tide-gauge data. Peltier's isostatic model appears not to explain the spatial pattern, implying glacio-isostatic adjustment is not the dominant contribution to the low-frequency signals. Eustatic effects cannot be identified unambiguously. These studies suggest several major questions/observations with regard to relative sea-level studies ...

Co-occurrence of bycatch and target species in the groundfish demersal trawl fishery of the U.S. west coast; with special consideration of rebuilding stocks

Bycatch and resultant discard mortality are issues of global concern. The groundfish demersal trawl fishery on the west coast of the United States is a multispecies fishery with significant catch of target and nontarget species. These catches are of particular concern in regard to species that have previously been declared overfished and are currently rebuilding biomass back to target levels. To understand these interactions better, we used data from the West Coast Groundfish Observer Program in a series of cluster analyses to evaluate 3 questions: 1) Are there identifiable associations between species caught in the bottom trawl fishery; 2) Do species that are undergoing population rebuilding toward target biomass levels (“rebuilding species”) cluster with targeted species in a consistent way; 3) Are the relationships between rebuilding bycatch species and target species more resolved at particular spatial scales or are relationships spatially consistent across the whole data set? Two strong species clusters emerged—a deepwater slope cluster and a shelf cluster—neither of which included rebuilding species. The likelihood of encountering rebuilding rockfish species is relatively low. To evaluate whether weak clustering of rebuilding rockfish was attributable to their low rate of occurrence, we specified null models of species occurrence. Results indicated that the ability to predict occurrence of rebuilding rockfish when target species were caught was low. Cluster analyses performed at a variety of spatial scales indicated that the most reliable clustering of rebuilding species was at the spatial scale of individual fishing ports. This finding underscores the value of spatially resolved data for fishery management.

Characterization of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic penaeid and rock shrimp fisheries based on observer data

In July 2007, a mandatory Federal observer program was implemented to characterize the U.S. Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus, F. duorarum, and Litopenaeus setiferus) fishery. In June 2008, the program expanded to include the South Atlantic penaeid and rock shrimp, Sicyonia spp., fisheries. Data collected from 10,206 tows during 5,197 sea days of observations were analyzed by geographical area and target species. The majority of tows (~70%) sampled were off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Based on total hours towed, the highest concentrated effort occurred off South Texas and southwestern Florida. Gear information, such as net characteristics, bycatch reduction devices, and turtle excluder devices were fairly consistent among areas and target species. By species categories, finfish comprised the majority (≥57%) of the catch composition in the Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic penaeid shrimp fisheries, while in the South Atlantic rock shrimp fishery the largest component (41%) was rock shrimp. Bycatch to shrimp ratios were lower than reported in previous studies for the Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp fishery. These decreased ratios may be attributed to several factors, notably decreased shrimp effort and higher shrimp catch per unit of effort (CPUE) in recent years. CPUE density surface plots for several species of interest illustrated spatial differences in distribution. Hot Spot Analyses for shrimp (penaeid and rock) and bycatch species identified areas with significant clustering of high or low CPUE values. Spatial and temporal distribution of protected species interactions were documented.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean and estuarine waters of the U.S. South Atlantic Bight: 2000-2004

In March-April 2004, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and State of Florida (FL) conducted a study to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) portion of the U.S. continental shelf and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to West Palm Beach, Florida and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). Conditions of these offshore waters are compared to those of southeastern estuaries, based on data from similar EMAP/NCA surveys conducted in 2000-2004 by EPA, NOAA, and partnering southeastern states (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) (NCA database for estuaries, EPA Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze FL). Data from a total of 747 estuarine stations are included in this database. As for the offshore sites, the estuarine samples were collected using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal EMAP/NCA surveys including the probabilistic sampling design and multiple indicators of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthos and fish). The majority of the SAB had high levels of DO in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of "good" water quality. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at all sites throughout the coastal-ocean survey area and in 76% of estuarine waters. Twenty-one percent of estuarine bottom waters had moderate levels of DO between 2 and 5 mg L-1 and 3% had DO levels below 2 mg L-1. The majority of sites with DO in the low range considered to be hypoxic (< 2 mg L-1) occurred in North Carolina estuaries. There also was a notable concentration of stations with moderate DO levels (2 – 5 mg L-1) in Georgia and South Carolina estuaries. Approximately 58% of the estuarine area had moderate levels of chlorophyll a (5-10 μg L-1) and about 8% of the area had higher levels, in excess of 10 μg L-1, indicative of eutrophication. The elevated chlorophyll a levels appeared to be widespread throughout the estuaries of the region. In contrast, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of chlorophyll a with 100% of the offshore survey area having values < 5 μg L-1.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida: 2007

A study was initiated with field work in May 2007 to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida, focusing on soft-bottom habitats, and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Anclote Key on the western coast of Florida to West Palm Beach on the eastern coast of Florida, inclusive of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). The study was conducted through a large cooperative effort by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FKNMS, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The majority of the South Florida shelf had high levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of “good” water quality.. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at 98.8% throughout the coastal-ocean survey area. Only 1.2% of the region had moderate DO levels (2-5 mg/L) and no part of the survey area had DO <2.0 mg/L. In addition, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and chlorophyll a indicative of oligotrophic conditions. Results suggested good sediment quality as well. Sediments throughout the region, which ranged from sands to intermediate muddy sands, had low levels of total organic carbon (TOC) below bioeffect guidelines for benthic organisms. Chemical contaminants in sediments were also mostly at low, background levels. For example, none of the stations had chemicals in excess of corresponding Effects-Range Median (ERM) probable bioeffect values or more than one chemical in excess of lower-threshold Effects-Range Low (ERL) values. Cadmium was the only chemical that occurred at moderate concentrations between corresponding ERL and ERM values. Sixty fish samples from 28 stations were collected and analyzed for chemical contaminants. Eleven of these samples (39% of sites) had moderate levels of contaminants, between lower and upper non-cancer human-health thresholds, and ten (36% of sites) had high levels of contaminants above the upper threshold.

Fish and habitat community assessments on North Carolina shipwrecks: potential sites for detecting climate change in the graveyard of the Atlantic

The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary (MNMS) was the nation’s first sanctuary, originally established in 1975 to protect the famous civil war ironclad shipwreck, the USS Monitor. Since 2008, sanctuary sponsored archeological research has branched out to include historically significant U-boats and World War II shipwrecks within the larger Graveyard of the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. These shipwrecks are not only important for their cultural value, but also as habitat for a wide diversity of fishes, invertebrates and algal species. Additionally, due to their unique location within an important area for biological productivity, the sanctuary and other culturally valuable shipwrecks within the Graveyard of the Atlantic are potential sites for examining community change. For this reason, from June 8-30, 2010, biological and ecological investigations were conducted at four World War II shipwrecks (Keshena, City of Atlanta, Dixie Arrow, EM Clark), as part of the MNMS 2010 Battle of the Atlantic (BOTA) research project. At each shipwreck site, fish community surveys were conducted and benthic photo-quadrats were collected to characterize the mobile conspicuous fish, smaller prey fish, and sessile invertebrate and algal communities. In addition, temperature sensors were placed at all four shipwrecks previously mentioned, as well as an additional shipwreck, the Manuela. The data, which establishes a baseline condition to use in future assessments, suggest strong differences in both the fish and benthic communities among the surveyed shipwrecks based on the oceanographic zone (depth). In order to establish these shipwrecks as sites for detecting community change it is suggested that a subset of locations across the shelf be selected and repeatedly sampled over time. In order to reduce variability within sites for both the benthic and fish communities, a significant number of surveys should be conducted at each location. This sampling strategy will account for the natural differences in community structure that exist across the shelf due to the oceanographic regime, and allow robust statistical analyses of community differences over time.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight: 2006

In May 2006, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), in conjunction with the EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory (NHEERL), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters throughout the mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) portion of the eastern U.S. continental shelf. The study area encompassed the region from Cape Cod, MA and Nantucket Shoals in the northeast to Cape Hatteras in the south, and was defined using a one nautical mile buffer of the shoreline extended seaward to the shelf break (~100-m depth contour). A total of 50 stations were targeted for sampling using standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna). Through coordination with the NOAA Fisheries Service/Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NFS/NEFSC), samples of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) also were obtained from 30 winter 2007 bottom-trawl survey stations in overlapping portions of the study area and used for analysis of chemical-contaminant body burdens.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.

Recruitment of larval Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) to North Carolina and New Jersey estuaries: evidence for larval transport northward along the east coast of the United States

Age, size, abundance, and birthdate distributions were compared for larval Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) collected weekly during their estuarine recruitment seasons in 1989–90, 1990–91, and 1992–93 in lower estuaries near Beaufort, North Carolina, and Tuckerton, New Jersey, to determine the source of these larvae. Larval recruitment in New Jersey extended for 9 months beginning in October but was discontinuous and was punctuated by periods of no catch that were associated with low water temperatures. In North Carolina, recruitment was continuous for 5–6 months beginning in November. Total yearly larval density in North Carolina was higher (15–39×) than in New Jersey for each of the 3 years. Larvae collected in North Carolina generally grew faster than larvae collected in New Jersey and were, on average, older and larger. Birthdate distributions (back-calculated from sagittal otolith ages) overlapped between sites and included many larvae that were spawned in winter. Early spawned (through October) larvae caught in the New Jersey estuary were probably spawned off New Jersey. Larvae spawned later (November–April) and collected in the same estuary were probably from south of Cape Hatteras because only there are winter water temperatures warm enough (≥16°C) to allow spawning and larval development. The percentage contribution of these late-spawned larvae from south of Cape Hatteras were an important, but variable fraction (10% in 1992–93 to 87% in 1989–90) of the total number of larvae recruited to this New Jersey estuary. Thus, this study provides evidence that some B. tyrannus spawned south of Cape Hatteras may reach New Jersey estuarine nurseries.

Preliminary estimates of cetacean abundance in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and of selected cetacean species in the U.S. Atlantic Exclusive Economic Zone from vessel surveys

The Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) initiated annual, vessel-based visual sampling surveys of northern Gulf of Mexico marine mammals in 1990 and conducted a similar survey in U.S. Atlantic Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters from Miami, Florida, to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, in 1992. The primary goal of these surveys was to meet Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements for estimating abundance and monitoring trends of marine mammal stocks in United States waters. The surveys were designed to collect: 1) marine mammal sighting data to estimate abundance and to determine distribution and diversity; and 2) environmental data to evaluate factors which may affect the distribution, abundance and diversity of marine mammals. The preliminary analyses for abundance estimation from the 1990-1993 surveys are presented in this report.

Whales, dolphins, and porpoises of the western North Atlantic: a guide to their identification

This is an identification guide for cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises). It was designed to assist laypersons in identifying cetaceans encountered in the western North Atlantic Ocean and was intended for use by ongoing cetacean observer programs. This publication includes sections on identifying cetaceans at sea as well as stranded animals on shore. Species accounts are divided by body size and presence or lack of a dorsal fin. Appendices cover tags used on cetacean species; how to record and report cetacean observations at see and for stranded cetaceans; and a list of contacts for reporting cetacean strandings. (Document pdf contains 183 pages - file takes considerable time to open)

Interim report on salt-water encroachment in Dade County, Florida

Recently there has been much activity in reclaiming the low-lying coastal areas of Dade County for residential use, by the addition of fill. The fill is obtained by digging canals both normal to and parallel to Biscayne Bay. The canals serve the additional purpose of providing an access to the Bay for boats. A problem needing to be considered is the effect that these canals will have on the ground-water resources. It is expected that the canals will have little effect on ground water in parts of the county distant from the coast, but their effect in coastal areas is a matter of concern. In order to predict what, may happen in the vicinity of these new canals if they are not equipped with adequate control structures, it is instructive to review what has happened in the vicinity of similar canals in the past. The U. S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Dade County, the cities of Miami and Miami Beach, the Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District, and the Florida Geological Survey has collected water-level and salinity data on wells and canals in Dade County since 1939. Some of the agencies named, and others, collected similar data before 1939. Analysis of all the data shows that sea water in the Atlantic Ocean and Biscayne Bayis the sole source of salt-water contamination in the Biscayne aquifer of the Dade County area. (PDF has 19 pages.)

Submarine landslides : selected studies in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone

Submarine Landslides: An Introduction 1 By RIo Lee, W.C. Schwab, and J.S. Booth U.S. Atlantic Continental Slope Landslides: Their Distribution, General Anributes, and Implications 14 By J.S. Booth, D.W. O'Leary, Peter Popenoe, and W.W. Danforth Submarine Mass Movement, a Formative Process of Passive Continental Margins: The Munson-Nygren Landslide Complex and the Southeast New England Landslide Complex 23 By D.W. O'Leary The Cape Fear Landslide: Slope Failure Associated with Salt Diapirism and Gas Hydrate Decomposition 40 By Peter Popenoe, E.A. Schmuck, and W.P. Dillon Ancient Crustal Fractures Control the Location and Size of Collapsed Blocks at the Blake Escarpment, East of Florida 54 By W.P. Dillon, J.S. Risch, K.M. Scanlon, P.C. Valentine, and Q.J. Huggett Tectonic and Stratigraphic Control on a Giant Submarine Slope Failure: Puerto Rico Insular Slope 60 By W.C. Schwab, W.W. Danforth, and K.M. Scanlon Slope Failure of Carbonate Sediment on the West Florida Slope 69 By D.C. Twichell, P.C. Valentine, and L.M. Parson Slope Failures in an Area of High Sedimentation Rate: Offshore Mississippi River Delta 79 By J.M. Coleman, D.B. Prior, L.E. Garrison, and H.J. Lee Salt Tectonics and Slope Failure in an Area of Salt Domes in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico 92 By B.A. McGregor, R.G. Rothwell, N.H. Kenyon, and D.C. Twichell Slope Stability in Regions 01 Sea-Floor Gas Hydrate: Beaufort Sea Continental Slope 97 By R.E. Kayen and H.J. Lee Mass Movement Related to Large Submarine Canyons Along the Beringian Margin, Alaska 104 By P.R. Carlson, H.A. Karl, B.D. Edwards, J.V. Gardner, and R. Hall Comparison of Tectonic and Stratigraphic Control of Submarine Landslides on the Kodiak Upper Continental Slope, Alaska 117 By M.A. Hampton Submarine Landslides That Had a Significant Impact on Man and His Activities: Seward and Valdez, Alaska 123 By M.A. Hampton, R.W. Lemke, and H.W. Coulter Processes Controlling the Style of Mass Movement in Glaciomarine Sediment: Northeastern Gulf of Alaska 135 By W.C. Schwab and H.J. Lee Contents V VI Contents Liquefaction of Continental Shelf Sediment: The Northern California Earthquake of 1980 143 By M.E. Field A Submarine Landslide Associated with Shallow Sea-Floor Gas and Gas Hydrates off Northern California 151 By M.E. Field and J.H. Barber, Jr. Sur Submarine Landslide, a Deep-Water Sediment Slope Failure 158 By C.E. Gutmacher and W.R. Normark Seismically Induced Mudflow in Santa Barbara Basin, California 167 By B.D. Edwards, H.J. Lee, and M.E. Field Submarine Landslides in a Basin and Ridge Setting, Southern California 176 By M.E. Field and B.D. Edwards Giant Volcano-Related Landslides and the Development of the Hawaiian Islands 184 By W.R. Normark, J.G. Moore, and M.E. Torresan Submarine Slope Failures Initiated by Hurricane Iwa, Kahe Point, Oahu, Hawaii 197 By W.R. Normark, Pat Wilde, J.F. Campbell, T.E. Chase, and Bruce Tsutsui (PDF contains 210 pages)

Mollusks taken by Beam Trawl in the vicinity of Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary on the Continental Shelf off Georgia, Southeastern U.S.

Mollusks were sorted from samples of shell hash (obtained as bycatch during NOAA-sponsored studies of larval and juvenile fish distribution), and analyzed to gain qualitative insights on species composition, distribution and habitat affinities of the molluscan fauna on the continental shelf off Georgia. Samples came from beam trawls at 37 stations located in the immediate vicinity and offshore of the Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) at depths of 4.9 to 103 m. Two hundred sixty-three (263) taxa of mollusks (~58% as dead shells only) were collected, and nearly all (~99%) were identified to the species level. Ninety-seven of these taxa appeared in samples from one or more of the four stations established near the corners of the GRNMS. Samples were highly variable in terms of appearance, volume and species composition of mollusks, reflecting the extreme patchiness of benthic habitats within this region of the continental shelf. With very few exceptions, the mollusks were generally characteristic of either the Carolinian or Caribbean faunal provinces. The Georgia continental shelf, however, was outside the previously reported ranges for at least 16 of the species reported here. Most of these extralimital species were known previously from the East Coast of Florida, and represented northerly range extensions of 1-5° Latitude (110-560 km). One species represented a more significant range extension from the Bahamas and the southern Caribbean, and two represented southerly range extensions, known previously from only as close as off North Carolina. The high incidence of range extensions found in this study and the potential for discovery of additional species are discussed in the context of the diversity and patchiness of benthic habitats on the continental shelf of the region, and the sensitivity of species recruitment to variability in Gulf Stream patterns and global climate change. (PDF contains 52 pages)