91 resultados para the least number heuristic


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We analyzed published and archived records for the past 250 years to assess changes in distribution and abundance of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus, along the Asian coast from the Bering Strait to the Korean Peninsula. We found that the northern extent of Steller sea lion distribution has not changed but that the southern limit has moved north by some 500–900 km (~300–500 n.mi.) over the past 50 years. Additionally, the number of animals and their distribution has changed on the Commander Islands, Kuril Islands, and Kamchatka Peninsula. We found no changes in the number of rookeries in the northern Sea of Okhotsk, but a new rookery was established at Tuleny Island on the eastern coast of Sakhalin Island. We estimate that the total abundance of Steller sea lions along the Asian coast in the late 19th century was about 115,000 animals; during the 1960’s, the total estimate was about 27,000 (including pups), most of which were in the Kuril Islands. The fewest number of Steller sea lions occurred in the northwestern Pacific in the late 1980’s–early 1990’s when only about 13,000 individuals (including pups) were estimated in the entire region. During the 1990’s, and especially in early 2000, an increasing trend in abundance occurred in most areas. Present estimated abundance of Steller sea lions in Asia is about 16,000 individuals (including about 5,000 pups), about half of which occur in the Kuril Islands. Changes in abundance occurred during all time periods but varied by site and period. Specifically, over the past 150 years Steller sea lion abundance at most sites has changed. There were no rookeries on the Commander Islands between 1850 and 1960 and abundance was low, but by 1977, abundance increased to 4,800 individuals and a rookery was established in the mid 1980’s; abundance there has declined since the early 1980’s and in 2004 only 895 individuals (including 221 pups) were counted during the breeding season. Between 1940 and 2004, abundance along the eastern coast of Kamchatka declined from ~7,000 to ~600 individuals, an overall reduction of 90%. Steller sea lion abundance on the Kuril Islands declined by >90% from the 1800’s to 2005; the most severe decline there occurred during 1969–1981. Steller sea lion numbers in the northern part of the Sea of Okhotsk declined during 1930–2002 from 7,200 to 3,100 individuals. Numbers at Tuleny Island have increased since establishment of a rookery there during 1983–2005 and by immigration from other sites.

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Aboriginal Australians consumed oysters before settlement by Europeans as shown by the large number of kitchen middens along Australia's coast. Flat oysters, Ostrea angasi, were consumed in southeastern Australia, whereas both flat and Sydney rock oysters, Saccostrea glomerata, are found in kitchen middens in southern New South Wales (NSW), but only Sydney rock oysters are found in northern NSW and southern Queensland. Oyster fisheries began with the exploitation of dredge beds, for the use of oyster shell for lime production and oyster meat for consumption. These natural oyster beds were nealy all exhausted by the late 1800's, and they have not recovered. Oyster farming, one of the oldest aquaculture industries in Australia, began as the oyster fisheries declined in the late 1800's. Early attempts at farming flat oysters in Tasmania, Victoria, and South Australia, which started in the 1880's, were abandoned in the 1890's. However, a thriving Sydney rock oyster industry developed from primitive beginnings in NSW in the 1870's. Sydney rock oysters are farmed in NSW, southern Queensland, and at Albany, Western Australia (WA). Pacific oysters, Crassostrea gigas, are produced in Tasmania, South Australia, and Port Stephens, NSW. FLant oysters currently are farmed only in NSW, and there is also some small-scale harvesting of tropical species, the coarl rock or milky oyster, S. cucullata, and th black-lip oyster, Striostrea mytiloides, in northern Queensland. Despite intra- and interstate rivalries, oyster farmers are gradually realizing that they are all part of one industry, and this is reflected by the establishment of the national Australian Shellfish Quality Assuarance Program and the transfer of farming technology between states. Australia's oyster harvests have remained relatively stable since Sydney rock oyster production peaked in the mid 1970's at 13 million dozen. By the end of the 1990's this had stabilized at around 8 million dozen, and Pacific oyster production reached a total of 6.5 million dozen from Tasmania, South Australia, and Port Stephens, a total of 14.5 million dozen oysters for the whole country. This small increase in production during a time of substantial human population growth shows a smaller per capita consumption and a declining use of oysters as a "side-dish."

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During 1991–2000, the west-are additional mortalities that fueled the ern stock of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias decline. We tabulated the levels of reported jubatus, declined at 5.03% (SE = 0.25%) anthropogenic sources of mortality (sub- per year, statistically significant rates (P < sistence, incidental take in fisheries, and 0.10) in all but the eastern Aleutian Islands research), estimated another (illegal shoot-region. The greatest rates of declines oc-ing), then approximated levels of predation curred in the eastern and central Gulf of Alas-(killer whales and sharks). We attempted to ka and the western Aleutian Islands (> 8.2% partition the various sources of “additional” per year). Using a published correction mortalities as anthropogenic and as addifactor, we estimated the total non-pup pop-tional mortality including some predation. ulation size in Alaska of the western stock We classified 436 anthropogenic mortalities of Steller sea lions to be about 33,000 ani-and 769 anthropogenic plus some predation mals. Based on a published life table and mortalities as “mortality above replace-the current rate of decline, we estimate that ment”; this accounted for 26% and 46% of the total number of mortalities of non-pup the estimated total level of “mortality above Steller sea lions during 1991–2000 was replacement”, respectively. The remaining about 6,383 animals; of those, 4,718 (74%) mortality (74% and 54%, respectively) was are mortalities that would have occurred if not attributed to a specific cause and may be the population were stable, and 1,666 (26%) the result of nutritional stress.

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The abundance of the common starfish, Asterias forbesi, fluctuates widely over time. The starfish is a predator of pre-recruit northern quahogs, Mercenaria mercenaria. During the 1990’s, starfish became scarce in Raritan Bay and Long Island Sound. Quahog populations concurrently erupted in abundance and quahog landings have risen sharply in both locations. The extensive scale of this observation would seem to imply a cause and effect; at the least, both populations may be responding differently to a large scale exogenous factor.

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A simple cohort model was used as the basis for selecting the appropriate periodicity and number of separate unit areas in a rotating harvest scheme for a sedentary species, the red coral, Corallium rubrum, in the General Fisheries Management Council for the Mediterranean area. The rotation period in years, and hence the minimum number of unit areas involved, was determined on the basis of the time to maximum biomass by a simple calculation of the yield-per-recruit type, requiring a knowledge of natural mortality and growth rates. Other criteria may be more important, however, and in general for a long-lived species, will result in shorter rotation periods. These criteria may include economic factors, criteria based on the preferred size or quality of product, or criteria that take into account the cumulative risk of illegal fishing of closed areas with time, hence the growing cost of enforcement as harvestable product accumulates. For red coral, although maximum biomass is predicted to be reached after some 15-44 years, the above considerations suggest that a rotation period ofsome 9-15 years would be close to optimal, taking into account a range ofthe above considerations. This article discusses the relative merits of rotating harvest schemes in contrast to quota management for sedentary and semi-sedentary resources or geographically isolated substocks ofa mobile resource, and concludes that this approach may have considerable potential as an alternative approach to resource management.

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Western Atlantic synodontid species were studied as part of an ongoing effort to reanalyze Caribbean shorefish diversity. A neighbor-joining tree constructed from cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) data revealed 2 highly divergent genetic lineages within both Synodus intermedius (Agassiz, 1829) (Sand Diver) and S. foetens (Linnaeus, 1766) (Inshore Lizardfish). A new species, Synodus macrostigmus, is described for one of the S. intermedius lineages. Synodus macrostigmus and S. intermedius differ in number of lateral-line scales, caudal pigmentation, size of the scapular blotch, and shape of the anterior-nostril flap. Synodus macrostigmus and S. intermedius have overlapping geographic and depth distributions, but S. macrostigmus generally inhabits deeper water (>28 m) than does S. intermedius and is known only from coastal waters of the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico, in contrast to those areas and the Caribbean for S. intermedius. Synodus bondi Fowler, 1939, is resurrected from the synonymy of S. foetens for one of the S. foetens genetic lineages. The 2 species differ in length and shape of the snout, number of anal-fin rays, and shape of the anterior-nostril flap. Synodus bondi and S. foetens co-occur in the central Caribbean, but S. bondi otherwise has a more southerly distribution than does S. foetens. Redescriptions are provided for S. intermedius, S. foetens, and S. bondi. Neotypes are designated for S. intermedius and S. foetens. A revised key to Synodus species in the western Atlantic is presented.

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Long-term sustainable management of wild populations should be based on management actions that account for the genetic structure among populations. Knowledge of genetic structure and of the degree of demographic exchange between discreet [sic] populations allows managers to better define management units. However, adequate gene loci for population assessments are not always available. In this study, variable co-dominant DNA loci in the heavily exploited marine genus Brevoortia were developed with a microsatellite-enriched DNA library for the Gulf Menhaden (Brevoortia patronus). Microsatellite marker discovery was followed by genetic characterization of 4 endemic North American Brevoortia species, by using 14 novel loci as well as 5 previously described loci. Power analysis of these loci for use in species identification and genetic stock structure was used to assess their potential to improve the stock definition in the menhaden fishery of the Gulf of Mexico. These loci could be used to reliably identify menhaden species in the Gulf of Mexico with an estimated error rate of α=0.0001. Similarly, a power analysis completed on the basis of observed allele frequencies in Gulf Menhaden indicated that these markers can be used to detect very small levels of genetic divergence (Fst≈0.004) among simulated populations, with sample sizes as small as n=50 individuals. A cursory analysis of genetic structure among Gulf Menhaden sampled throughout the Gulf of Mexico indicated limited genetic structure among sampling locations, although the available sampling did not reach the target number (n=50) necessary to detect minimal values of significant structure.

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We describe the climatology of the western United States as seen from two 1-month perspectives, January and July 1988, of the National Meteorological Center large-scale global analysis, the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and various station observation sets. An advantage of the NMC analysis and the RAMS is that they provide a continuous field interpolation of the meteorological variables. It is more difficult to describe spatial meteorological fields from the available sparse station networks. We assess accuracy of the NMC analysis and RAMS by finding differences between the analysis, the model, and station values at the stations. From these comparisons, we find that RAMS has much more well-developed mesoscale circulation, especially in the surface wind field. However, RAMS climatological and transient fields do not appear to be substantially closer than the larger-scale analysis to the station observations. The RAMS model does provide other meteorological variables, such as precipitation, which are not readily available from the archives of the global analysis. Thus, RAMS could, at the least, be a tool to augment the NMC large-scale analyses.

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The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.

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Coral ( Porites astreoides ) from eight sites in southwest Puerto Rico were analyzed for approximately 150 chemical contaminants, to provide a preliminary characterization of environmental contamination in the corals, and assess the relationships between chemical contamination in corals and adjacent sediments. Overall, the concentration of PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) detected in the limited number of coral samples collected were comparable to concentrations found in sediments. However, the concentration of a chemical contaminant (e.g., PAHs) in the corals at a site was often different from what was found in adjacent sediments. The level of PCBs and DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) in the corals appeared higher just outside of Guanica Bay, and there was some evidence of a downstream concentration gradient for these two contaminant classes. The trace elements copper and zinc were frequently detected in Porites astreoides , and the concentrations were usually comparable to those found in adjacent sediments. Chromium was an exception in that it was not detected in any of the coral samples analyzed, although it was detected in all of the sediment samples.

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The increase in harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) abundance, concurrent with the decrease in salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) and other fish stocks, raises concerns about the potential negative impact of seals on fish populations. Although harbor seals are found in rivers and estuaries, their presence is not necessarily indicative of exclusive or predominant feeding in these systems. We examined the diet of harbor seals in the Umpqua River, Oregon, during 1997 and 1998 to indirectly assess whether or not they were feeding in the river. Fish otoliths and other skeletal structures were recovered from 651 scats and used to identify seal prey. The use of all diagnostic prey structures, rather than just otoliths, increased our estimates of the number of taxa, the minimum number of individuals and percent frequency of occurrence (%FO) of prey consumed. The %FO indicated that the most common prey were pleuronectids, Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), Pacific stag-horn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus), osmerids, and shiner surfperch (Cymatogaster aggregata). The majority (76%) of prey were fish that inhabit marine waters exclusively and fish found in marine and estuarine areas (e.g. anadromous spp.) which would indicate that seals forage predominantly at sea and use the estuary for resting and opportunistic feeding. Salmonid remains were encountered in 39 samples (6%); two samples contained identifiable otoliths, which were determined to be from chi-nook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Because of the complex salmonid composition in the Umpqua River, we used molecular genetic techniques on salmonid bones retrieved from scat to discern species that were rare from those that were abundant. Of the 37 scats with salmonid bones but no otoliths, bones were identified genetically as chinook or coho (O. kisutch) salmon, or steelhead trout (O. mykiss) in 90% of the samples.

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We estimated the total number of pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) mothers killed without their calves (“calf deficit”) in all tuna purse-seine sets from 1973– 90 and 1996–2000 in the eastern tropical Pacific. Estimates were based on a tally of the mothers killed as reported by color pattern and gender, several color-pattern-based frequency tables, and a weaning model. Over the time series, there was a decrease in the calf deficit from approximately 2800 for the western-southern stock and 5000 in the northeastern stock to about 60 missing calves per year. The mean deficit per set decreased from approximately 1.5 missing calves per set in the mid-1970s to 0.01 per set in the late-1990s. Over the time series examined, from 75% to 95% of the lactating females killed were killed without a calf. Under the assumption that these orphaned calves did not survive without their mothers, this calf deficit represents an approximately 14% increase in the reported kill of calves, which is relatively constant across the years examined. Because the calf deficit as we have defined it is based on the kill of mothers, the total number of missing calves that we estimate is potentially an underestimate of the actual number killed. Further research on the mechanism by which separation of mother and calf occurs is required to obtain better estimates of the unobserved kill of dolphin calves in this fishery.

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The reproductive biology of male franciscanas (Pontoporia blainvillei), based on 121 individuals collected in Rio Grande do Sul State, southern Brazil, was studied. Estimates on age, length, and weight at attainment of sexual maturity are presented. Data on the reproductive seasonality and on the relationship between some testicular characteristics and age, size, and maturity status are provided. Sexual maturity was assessed by histological examination of the testes. Seasonality was determined by changes in relative and total testis weight, and in seminiferous tubule diameters. Testis weight, testicular index of maturity, and seminiferous tubule diameters were reliable indicators of sexual maturity, whereas testis length, age, length, and weight of the dolphin were not. Sexual maturity was estimated to be attained at 3.6 years (CI 95% =2.7–4.5) with the DeMaster method and 3.0 years with the logistic equation. Length and weight at attainment of sexual maturity were 128.2 cm (CI 95%=125.3–131.1 cm) and 26.4 kg (CI 95% =24.7–28.1 kg), respectively. It could not be verified that there was any seasonal change in the testis weight and in the seminiferous tubule diameters in mature males. It is suggested that at least some mature males may remain reproductively active throughout the year. The extremely low relative testis weight indicates that sperm competition does not occur in the species. On the other hand, the absence of secondary sexual characteristics, the reversed sexual size dimorphism, and the small number of scars from intrassexual combats in males reinforce the hypothesis that male combats for female reproductive access may be rare for franciscana. It is hypothesized that P. blainvillei form temporary pairs (one male copulating with only one female) during the reproductive period.

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From 1978 to 1988, approximately 71,000 spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) were tagged off the west coast of Canada. This program is the most extensive tagging study conducted for a shark species. Twelve years after the last year of tagging, recaptured tagged spiny dogfish are still being reported. As of December 2000, 2940 tagged fish (4.1%) have been recaptured. Spiny dogfish were tagged in three major areas: Strait of Georgia, west coast Vancouver Island, and northern British Columbia waters. Generally, spiny dogfish were recaptured close to their release site; however, extensive migrations (up to 7000 km) did occur. Migration rates varied across release areas. Spiny dogfish tagged in the Strait of Georgia underwent the least extensive movement; only 10–14% of the recaptures occurred outside the strait. Spiny dogfish tagged off the west coast of Vancouver Island or in northern British Columbia waters underwent more extensive movement; approximately 49–80% of the tagged spiny dogfish recaptured outside of the release areas. Spiny dogfish from all three release areas were recaptured off the west coast of United States and Alaska. Most impressive are the recaptures of tagged spiny dogfish off the coast of Japan. Over 30 spiny dog-fish were recaptured near Japan, most of which originated off the west coast of Vancouver Island or from northern British Columbia waters.

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Portunus pelagicus was collected at regular intervals from two marine embayments and two estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia and from a large embayment located approximately 800 km farther north. The samples were used to obtain data on the reproductive biology of this species in three very different environments. Unlike females, the males show a loosening of the attachment of the abdominal flap to the cephalothorax at a prepubertal rather than a pubertal molt. Males become gonadally mature (spermatophores and seminal fluid present in the medial region of the vas deferentia) at a very similar carapace width (CW) to that at which they achieve morphometric maturity, as reflected by a change in the relative size of the largest cheliped. Logistic curves, derived from the prevalence of mature male P. pelagicus, generally had wider confidence limits with morphometric than with gonadal data. This presumably reflects the fact that the morphometric (allometric) method of classifying a male P. pelagicus as mature employs probabilities and is thus indirect, whereas gonadal structure allows a mature male to be readily identified. However, the very close correspondence between the CW50’s derived for P. pelagicus by the two methods implies that either method can be used for management purposes. Portunus pelagicus attained maturity at a significantly greater size in the large embayment than in the four more southern bodies of water, where water temperatures were lower and the densities of crabs and fishing pressure were greater. As a result of the emigration of mature female P. pelagicus from estuaries, the CW50’s derived by using the prevalence of mature females in estuaries represent overestimates for those populations as a whole. Estimates of the number of egg batches produced in a spawning season ranged from one in small crabs to three in large crabs. These data, together with the batch fecundities of different size crabs, indicate that the estimated number of eggs produced by P. pelagicus during the spawning season ranges from about 78,000 in small crabs (CW=80 mm) to about 1,000,000 in large crabs (CW=180 mm).