Trends in counts of manatees Trichechus manatus latirostris from 1987 to 2006 in waters of Sarasota County, Florida, USA

To demonstrate the utility of distributional surveys for assessing relative abundance and trends in counts for a discrete area of coastline, aerial survey data from Sarasota County, Florida, USA, were analyzed for the years 1987 to 2006. The study area was divided into 3 regions: the Sarasota Bay Region (SBR; N = 353 surveys), Lemon Bay (N = 368), and the Myakka River (N = 209). Manatee counts varied significantly across seasons (p < 0.0001) for all 3 regions. Manatees within Sarasota County utilized open bays primarily in the warmer months. Such usage may have been influenced by resource availability. Conversely, usage of the Myakka River peaked in winter months when manatees seek warm-water refugia such as Warm Mineral Spring. Marginal means for yearly counts within Lemon Bay and the SBR increased significantly, beginning midway through the survey period (1996) until the early 2000s. In contrast, mean yearly counts within the Myakka River decreased over this time period. After record lows in 2003 for Lemon Bay and the Myakka River, and a considerable decline in 2004 for the SBR, mean yearly counts for all 3 regions showed an increasing trend over the remaining 2 yr of the study. Greater protection of manatee habitat and availability of forage coincided with the increase in numbers of manatees using Sarasota County waters during the 1990s, and the subsequent decline in numbers may be indicative of the increase in mortality in recent years due to watercraft collisions and severe red tide events.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight: 2006

In May 2006, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), in conjunction with the EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory (NHEERL), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters throughout the mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) portion of the eastern U.S. continental shelf. The study area encompassed the region from Cape Cod, MA and Nantucket Shoals in the northeast to Cape Hatteras in the south, and was defined using a one nautical mile buffer of the shoreline extended seaward to the shelf break (~100-m depth contour). A total of 50 stations were targeted for sampling using standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna). Through coordination with the NOAA Fisheries Service/Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NFS/NEFSC), samples of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) also were obtained from 30 winter 2007 bottom-trawl survey stations in overlapping portions of the study area and used for analysis of chemical-contaminant body burdens.

Shallow-water benthic habitats of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

Coral reef ecosystems of the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument, Virgin Islands National Park and the surrounding waters of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands are a precious natural resource worthy of special protection and conservation. The mosaic of habitats including coral reefs, seagrasses and mangroves, are home to a diversity of marine organisms. These benthic habitats and their associated inhabitants provide many important ecosystem services to the community of St. John, such as fishing, tourism and shoreline protection. However, coral reef ecosystems throughout the U.S. Caribbean are under increasing pressure from environmental and anthropogenic stressors that threaten to destroy the natural heritage of these marine habitats. Mapping of benthic habitats is an integral component of any effective ecosystem-based management approach. Through the implementation of a multi-year interagency agreement, NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment - Biogeography Branch and the U.S. National Park Service (NPS) have completed benthic habitat mapping, field validation and accuracy assessment of maps for the nearshore marine environment of St. John. This work is an expansion of ongoing mapping and monitoring efforts conducted by NOAA and NPS in the U.S. Caribbean and replaces previous NOAA maps generated by Kendall et al. (2001) for the waters around St. John. The use of standardized protocols enables the condition of the coral reef ecosystems around St. John to be evaluated in context to the rest of the Virgin Island Territories and other U.S. coral ecosystems. The products from this effort provide an accurate assessment of the abundance and distribution of marine habitats surrounding St. John to support more effective management and conservation of ocean resources within the National Park system. This report documents the entire process of benthic habitat mapping in St. John. Chapter 1 provides a description of the benthic habitat classification scheme used to categorize the different habitats existing in the nearshore environment. Chapter 2 describes the steps required to create a benthic habitat map from visual interpretation of remotely sensed imagery. Chapter 3 details the process of accuracy assessment and reports on the thematic accuracy of the final maps. Finally, Chapter 4 is a summary of the basic map content and compares the new maps to a previous NOAA effort. Benthic habitat maps of the nearshore marine environment of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands were created by visual interpretation of remotely sensed imagery. Overhead imagery, including color orthophotography and IKONOS satellite imagery, proved to be an excellent source from which to visually interpret the location, extent and attributes of marine habitats. NOAA scientists were able to accurately and reliably delineate the boundaries of features on digital imagery using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and fi eld investigations. The St. John habitat classification scheme defined benthic communities on the basis of four primary coral reef ecosystem attributes: 1) broad geographic zone, 2) geomorphological structure type, 3) dominant biological cover, and 4) degree of live coral cover. Every feature in the benthic habitat map was assigned a designation at each level of the scheme. The ability to apply any component of this scheme was dependent on being able to identify and delineate a given feature in remotely sensed imagery.

Moderate-depth benthic habitats of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s (CCMA) Biogeography Branch and the U.S. National Park Service (NPS) have completed mapping the moderate-depth marine environment south of St. John. This work is an expansion of ongoing mapping and monitoring efforts conducted by NOAA and NPS in the U.S. Caribbean. The standardized protocols used in this effort will enable scientists and managers to quantitatively compare moderate-depth coral reef ecosystems around St. John to those throughout the U.S. Territories. These protocols and products will also help support the effective management and conservation of the marine resources within the National Park system.

St. John, USVI mission report, NOAA/NOS/NCCOS/CCMA/Biogeography Branch, July 6 - July 17, 2009

The intent of this field mission was to continue ongoing efforts: (1) to spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance and size of reef fishes, and the abundance of macroinvertebrates (conch, Diatema, lobster) within and around the waters of the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) and newly established Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR), (2) to correlate this information to in-situ data collected on associated habitat parameters, (3) to use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting and (4) to establish the efficacy of those management decisions. An additional focus this year, was to evaluate a new habitat data collection method for RHA sites (MSR and some Coral Bay sites). There are concerns that the cylinder habitat data are not reflective of the fish transect habitat. To address this, we collected habitat data at 5x4 m increments along the transect in addition to data collected using the cylinder method. We are currently assessing the potential differences between these methods and preliminary results indicate that the average difference of coral cover estimates between the two methods was 4.1% (range 0-11%) based on 16 sample sites. In addition, Erinn Muller, a Nancy Foster Fellowship recipient, collaborated with the Biogeography Branch to examine the spatial distribution of coral diseases, to provide baseline information on disease prevalence over varying spatial scales and to establish spatial distributions of coral diseases around St. John.

Temporal trends in reef fish assemblages inside Virgin Islands National Park and around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, 1988-2006

This report is a result of long-term fish monitoring studies supported by the National Park Service (NPS) at the Virgin Islands National Park since 1988 and is now a joint NPS and NOAA collaboration. Reef fish monitoring data collected from 1988 to 2006 within Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and adjacent reefs around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) were analyzed to provide information on the status of reef fishes during the monitoring period. Monitoring projects were initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in the 1980s to provide useful data for evaluation of resources and for development of a long-term monitoring program. Monthly monitoring was conducted at two reef sites (Yawzi Point and Cocoloba Cay) starting in November 1988 for 2.5 years to document the monthly/seasonal variability in reef fish assemblages. Hurricane Hugo (a powerful Category 4 storm) struck the USVI in September 1989 resulting in considerable damage to the reefs around St. John. Abundance of fishes was lower at both sites following the storm, however, a greater effect was observed at Yawzi Point, which experienced a more direct impact from the hurricane. The storm affected species differently, with some showing only small, short-term declines in abundance, and others, such as the numerically abundant blue chromis (Chromis cyanea), a planktivorous damselfish, exhibiting a larger and longer recovery period. This report provides: 1) an evaluation of sampling methods, sample size, and methods used during the sampling period, 2) an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in reef fish assemblages at selected reef sites inside and outside of VINP, and 3) an evaluation of trends over 17 years of monitoring at the four reference sites. Comparisons of methods were conducted to standardize assessments among years. Several methods were used to evaluate sample size requirements for reef fish monitoring and the results provided a statistically robust justification for sample allocation.

Mission report: a strategy to inventory, characterize, and monitor the marine region within and around the National Park and Monument boundaries of St. John, USVI, July 21- July 31, 2008

The intent of this field mission was to continue ongoing efforts: (1) to spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance and size of both reef fishes and conch within and around the waters of the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) and newly established Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR), (2) to correlate this information to in-situ data collected on associated habitat parameters, (3) to use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting and to establish the efficacy of those management decisions. This work is supported by the National Park Service and NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program’s Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Project. The report highlights the successes of this mission.

A geo-referenced benthic habitat survey in support of natural resource management: Port Graham Bay, Alaska

The impact of recent changes in climate on the arctic environment and its ecosystems appear to have a dramatic affect on natural populations (National Research Council Committee on the Bering Sea Ecosystem 1996) and pose a serious threat to the continuity of indigenous arctic cultures that are dependent on natural resources for subsistence (Peterson D. L., Johnson 1995). In the northeast Pacific, winter storms have intensified and shifted southward causing fundamental changes in sea surface temperature patterns (Beamish 1993, Francis et al. 1998). Since the mid 1970’s surface waters of the central basin of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) have warmed and freshened with a consequent increase in stratification and reduced winter entrainment of nutrients (Stabeno et al. 2004). Such physical changes in the structure of the ocean can rapidly affect lower trophic levels and indirectly affect fish and marine mammal populations through impacts on their prey (Benson and Trites 2002). Alaskan natives expect continued and perhaps accelerating changes in resources due to global warming (DFO 2006).and want to develop strategies to cope with their changing environment.

Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.

Age and growth estimates of the winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the western Gulf of Maine

Age and growth estimates for the winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) were estimated from vertebral band counts on 209 fish ranging in size from 145 to 940 mm total length (TL). An index of average percent error (IAPE) of 5.8% suggests that our aging method represents a precise approach to the age assessment of L. ocellata. Marginal increments were significantly different between months (Kruskal-Wallis P<0.001) and a distinct trend of increasing monthly increment growth began in July. Estimates of von Bertalanffy growth parameters suggest that females attain a slightly larger asymptotic TL (L∞=1374 mm) than males (L∞=1218 mm) and grow more slowly (k=0.059 and 0.074, respectively). The oldest ages obtained for the winter skate were 19 years for males and 18 years for females, which corresponded to total lengths of 932 mm and 940 mm, respectively. The results indicate that the winter skate exhibits the characteristics that have made other elasmobranch populations highly susceptible to exploitation by commercial fisheries.

The early life history of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) in the western North Atlantic

Lengths and ages of sword-fish (Xiphias gladius) estimated from increments on otoliths of larvae collected in the Caribbean Sea, Florida Straits, and off the southeastern United States, indicated two growth phases. Larvae complete yolk and oil globule absorption 5 to 6 days after hatching (DAH). Larvae <13 mm preserved standard length (PSL) grow slowly (~0.3 mm/d); larvae from 13 to 115 mm PSL grow rapidly (~6 mm/d). The acceleration in growth rate at 13 days follows an abrupt (within 3 days) change in diet, and in jaw and alimentary canal structure. The diet of swordfish larvae is limited. Larvae <8 mm PSL from the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the southeastern United States eat exclusively copepods, primarily of one genus, Corycaeus. Larvae 9 to 11 mm eat copepods and chaetognaths; larvae >11 mm eat exclusively neustonic fish larvae. This diet indicates that young larvae <11 mm occupy the near-surface pelagia, whereas, older and longer larvae are neustonic. Spawning dates for larvae collected in various regions of the western North Atlantic, along with the abundance and spatial distribution of the youngest larvae, indicate that spawning peaks in three seasons and in five regions. Swordfish spawn in the Caribbean Sea, or possibly to the east, in winter, and in the western Gulf of Mexico in spring. Elsewhere swordfish spawn year-round, but spawning peaks in the spring in the north-central Gulf of Mexico, in the summer off southern Florida, and in the spring and early summer off the southeastern United States. The western Gulf Stream frontal zone is the focus of spawning off the southeastern coast of the United States, whereas spawning in the Gulf of Mexico seems to be focused in the vicinity of the Gulf Loop Current. Larvae may use the Gulf of Mexico and the outer continental shelf off the east coast of the United States as nursery areas. Some larvae may be transported northward, but trans-Atlantic transport of larvae is unlikely.

Wind climate trends in the Pacific Northwest and the implications to renewable energy supply

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): This paper examines the influence of wind climate variations on new Pacific Northwest renewable energy sources. Wind represents a potentially valuable supplemental source of energy in the region. ... The recent period of weaker winds may be associated with a stronger North Pacific Low in the last decade. This would result in winter storms more often being deflected farther north, to Canada. Also, in the last dozen years, lower SOI values were common. Other investigators have found low SOI to be associated with drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Anomalous atmospheric circulation and large winter floods in six subregions of the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We examined atmospheric circulation conditions conducive to occurrence of winter floods that exceed the 10-year peak discharge on rivers in six hydroclimatic subregions in Arizona, southern Utah, Nevada, and California. ... This relationship between flooding and broad-scale atmospheric patterns in the modern record will aid in paleoclimatic interpretations of paleoflood records over the last few thousand years.