Incorporating fishery observer data into an integrated catch-at-age and multiyear tagging model for estimating mortality rates and abundance

Tagging experiments are a useful tool in fisheries for estimating mortality rates and abundance of fish. Unfortunately, nonreporting of recovered tags is a common problem in commercial fisheries which, if unaccounted for, can render these estimates meaningless. Observers are often employed to monitor a portion of the catches as a means of estimating reporting rates. In our study, observer data were incorporated into an integrated model for multiyear tagging and catch data to provide joint estimates of mortality rates (natural and f ishing), abundance, and reporting rates. Simulations were used to explore model performance under a range of scenarios (e.g., different parameter values, parameter constraints, and numbers of release and recapture years). Overall, results indicated that all parameters can be estimated with reasonable accuracy, but that fishing mortality, reporting rates, and abundance can be estimated with much higher precision than natural mortality. An example of how the model can be applied to provide guidance on experimental design for a large-scale tagging study is presented. Such guidance can contribute to the successful and cost-effective management of tagging programs for commercial fisheries.

Abundance and population density of cetaceans in the California Current ecosystem

The abundance and population density of cetaceans along the U.S. west coast were estimated from ship surveys conducted in the summer and fall of 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001, and 2005 by using multiple-covariate, line-transect analyses. Overall, approximately 556,000 cetaceans of 21 species were estimated to be in the 1,141,800-km2 study area. Delphinoids (Delphinidae and Phocoenidae), the most abundant group, numbered ~540,000 individuals. Abundance in other taxonomic groups included ~5800 baleen whales (Mysticeti), ~7000 beaked whales (Ziphiidae), and ~3200 sperm whales (Physeteridae). This study provides the longest time series of abundance estimates that includes all the cetacean species in any marine ecosystem. These estimates will be used to interpret the impacts of human-caused mortality (such as that documented in fishery bycatch and that caused by ship strikes and other means) and to evaluate the ecological role of cetaceans in the California Current ecosystem.

Abundance, distribution, and habitat of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) off California, 1990−2003

Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are regularly seen off the U.S. West Coast, where they forage on jellyfish (Scyphomedusae) during summer and fall. Aerial line-transect surveys were conducted in neritic waters (<92 m depth) off central and northern California during 1990−2003, providing the first foraging population estimates for Pacific leatherback turtles. Males and females of about 1.1 to 2.1 m length were observed. Estimated abundance was linked to the Northern Oscillation Index and ranged from 12 (coefficient of variation [CV] =0.75) in 1995 to 379 (CV= 0.23) in 1990, averaging 178 (CV= 0.15). Greatest densities were found off central California, where oceanographic retention areas or upwelling shadows created favorable habitat for leatherback turtle prey. Results from independent telemetry studies have linked leatherback turtles off the U.S. West Coast to one of the two largest remaining Pacific breeding populations, at Jamursba Medi, Indonesia. Nearshore waters off California thus represent an important foraging region for the critically endangered Pacific leatherback turtle.

Comparison of survey methods for estimating abundance of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in glacial fjords

The importance of glacial ice habitats to harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in Alaska has become increasingly apparent. However, enumerating harbor seals hauled out on ice in glacial fjords has been difficult. At Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay, Alaska, we compared a shore-based counting method to a large-format aerial photography method to estimate seal abundance. During each aerial survey, shore-based observers simultaneously counted seals from an observation post. Both survey methods incurred errors in double-counting and missing seals, especially when ice movements caused seals to drift between survey zones. Advantages of shore-based counts included the ability to obtain multiple counts for relatively little cost, distinguish pups from adults, and to distinguish mobile seals from shadows or glacial debris of similar size. Aerial photography provided a permanent record of each survey, allowing both a reconciliation of counts in overlapping zones and the documentation of the spatial distribution of seals and ice within the fjord.

Relationship between abundance of juvenile rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) and environmental variables documented off northern California and potential mechanisms for the covariation

We estimated annual abundance of juvenile blue (Sebastes mystinus), yellowtail (S. f lavidus), and black (S. melanops) rockfish off northern California over 21 years and evaluated the relationship of abundance to oceanographic variables (sea level anomaly, nearshore temperature, and offshore Ekman transport). Although mean annual abundance was highly variable (0.01−181 fish/minute), trends were similar for the three species. Sea level anomaly and nearshore temperature had the strongest relationship with interannual variation in rockfish abundance, and offshore Ekman transport did not correlate with abundance. Oceanographic events occurring in February and March (i.e., during the larval stage) had the strongest relationship with juvenile abundance, which indicates that year-class strength is determined during the larval stage. Also of note, the annual abundance of juvenile yellowtail rockfish was positively correlated with year-class strength of adult yellowtail rockfish; this finding would indicate the importance of studying juvenile abundance surveys for management purposes.

Abundance and distribution of the eastern North Pacific Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) population

The eastern Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) population comprises animals that breed along the west coast of North America between California and southeastern Alaska. There are currently 13 major rookeries (>50 pups): five in southeastern Alaska, three in British Columbia, two in Oregon, and three in California. Overall abundance has increased at an average annual rate of 3.1% since the 1970s. These increases can largely be attributed to population recovery from predator-control kills and commercial harvests, and abundance is now probably as high as it has been in the last century. The number of rookeries has remained fairly constant (n=11 to 13) over the past 80 years, but there has been a northward shift in distribution of both rookeries and numbers of animals. Based on the number of pups counted in a population-wide survey in 2002, total pup production was estimated to be about 11,000 (82% in southeastern Alaska and British Columbia), representing a total population size as approximately 46,000−58,000 animal

Factors influencing cannibalism and abundance of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) on the eastern Bering Sea shelf, 1982–20

Cannibalism is thought to be an inf luential top-down process affecting walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS). In summer, many age-1 pollock occupy the same depths as those of adult walleye pollock, making them vulnerable to cannibalism. We examine factors that inf luence the occurrence and amount of cannibalism, as well as the abundance and co-occurrence of predator and prey walleye pollock. Large walleye pollock were generally found in deeper waters and avoided cold temperatures; whereas, age-1 walleye pollock were found in broader bottom depth and temperature ranges. The occurrence of cannibalism was highest in the area where predator and prey walleye pollock co-occurred and the amount of cannibalism was highest on the middle and outer EBS shelf. Both the occurrence and amount of cannibalism were influenced by location, bottom temperature and bottom depth, and the abundance of prey walleye pollock. The abundance of both large and small walleye pollock decreased during the 1982–2006 survey period in the EBS and, hence, the occurrence and amount of cannibalism also decreased. The occurrence and amount of cannibalism observed in the diet samples from the summer survey were good indicators of year class strength, as estimated by the stock assessment model. There was more cannibalism of age-1 walleye pollock when predicted recruit abundance was highest, indicating that summer cannibalism on age-1 walleye pollock, a top-down process, does not control walleye pollock recruitment in the EBS.

Evaluation of rockfish abundance in untrawlable habitat: combining acoustic and complementary sampling tools

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are an important component of North Pacific marine ecosystems and commercial fisheries. Because the rocky, high-relief substrate that rockfishes often inhabit is inaccessible to standard survey trawls, population abundance assessments for many rockfish species are difficult. As part of a large study to classify substrate and compare complementary sampling tools, we investigated the feasibility of using an acoustic survey in conjunction with a lowered stereo-video camera, a remotely operated vehicle, and a modified bottom trawl to estimate rockfish biomass in untrawlable habitat. The Snakehead Bank south of Kodiak Island, Alaska, was surveyed repeatedly over 4 days and nights. Dusky rockfish (S. variabilis), northern rockfish (S. polyspinis), and harlequin rockfish (S. variegatus) were the most abundant species observed on the bank. Backscatter attributed to rockfish were collected primarily near the seafloor at a mean height off the bottom of 1.5 m. Total rockfish backscatter and the height of backscatter off the bottom did not differ among survey passes or between night and day. Biomass estimates for the 41 square nautical-mile area surveyed on this small, predominantly untrawlable bank were 2350 metric tons (t) of dusky rockfish, 331 t of northern rockfish, and 137 t of harlequin rockfish. These biomass estimates are 5–60 times the density estimated for these rockfish species by a regularly conducted bottom trawl survey covering the bank and the surrounding shelf. This finding shows that bottom trawl surveys can underestimate the abundance of rockfishes in untrawlable areas and, therefore, may underestimate overall population abundance for these species.

Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90 % confidence interval: 13−28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0−8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3−6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5×1011 (90% CI: 3.5×1011, 7.7×1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

The effect of predation (current and historical) by humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) on fish abundance near Kodiak Island, Alaska

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are significant marine consumers. To examine the potential effect of predation by humpback whales, consumption (kg of prey daily) and prey removal (kg of prey annually) were modeled for a current and historic feeding aggregation of humpback whales off northeastern Kodiak Island, Alaska. A current prey biomass removal rate was modeled by using an estimate of the 2002 humpback whale abundance. A historic rate of removal was modeled from a prewhaling abundance estimate (population size prior to 1926). Two provisional humpback whale diets were simulated in order to model consumption rate. One diet was based on the stomach contents of whales that were commercially harvested from Port Hobron whaling station in Kodiak, Alaska, between 1926 and 1937, and the second diet, based on local prey availability as determined by fish surveys conducted within the study area, was used to model consumption rate by the historic population. The latter diet was also used to model consumption by the current population and to project a consumption rate if the current population were to grow to reach the historic population size. Models of these simulated diets showed that the current population likely removes nearly 8.83

Temporal and spatial distribution and abundance of flathead sole (Hippoglossoides elassodon) eggs and larvae in the western Gulf of Alaska

Data from ichthyoplankton surveys conducted in 1972 and from 1977 to 1999 (no data were collected in 1980) by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (NOAA, NMFS) in the western Gulf of Alaska were used to examine the timing of spawning, geographic distribution and abundance, and the vertical distribution of eggs and larvae of flathead sole (Hippoglossoides elassodon). In the western Gulf of Alaska, flathead sole spawning began in early April and peaked from early to mid-May on the continental shelf. It progressed in a southwesterly direction along the Alaska Peninsula where three main areas of flathead sole spawning were indentified: near the Kenai Peninsula, in Shelikof Strait, and between the Shumagin Islands and Unimak Island. Flathead sole eggs are pelagic, and their depth distribution may be a function of their developmental stage. Data from MOCNESS tows indicated that eggs sink near time of hatching and the larvae rise to the surface to feed. The geographic distribution of larvae followed a pattern similar to the distribution of eggs, only it shifted about one month later. Larval abundance peaked from early to mid-June in the southern portion of Shelikof Strait. Biological and environmental factors may help to retain flathead sole larvae on the continental shelf near their juvenile nursery areas.

SUNLIGHT: a computer program for calculation of daily solar radiation

This paper presents an algorithm and software (available from ICLARM) for estimating the possible amount of sunlight that may fall on any location of the earth, any day of the year, as might be required for ecological modelling.

Using poststratification to improve abundance estimates from multispecies surveys: a study of juvenile flatfishes

Population assessments seldom incorporate habitat information or use previously observed distributions of fish density. Because habitat affects the spatial distribution of fish density and overall abundance, the use of habitat information and previous estimates of fish density can produce more precise and less biased population estimates. In this study, we describe how poststratification can be applied as an unbiased estimator to data sets that were collected under a probability sampling design, typical of many multispecies trawl surveys. With data from a multispecies survey of juvenile flatfish, we show how poststratification can be applied to a data set that was not collected under a probability sampling design, where both the precision and the bias are unknown. For each of four species, three estimates of total abundance were compared: 1) unstratified; 2) poststratified by habitat; and 3) poststratified by habitat and fish density (high fish density and low fish density) in nearby years. Poststratification by habitat gave more precise and (or) less design-biased estimates than an unstratified estimator for all species in all years. Poststratification by habitat and fish density produced the most precise and representative estimates when the sample size in the high fish-density and low fish-density strata were sufficient (in this study, n≥20 in the high fish-density stratum, n≥9 in the low fish-density stratum). Because of the complexities of statistically testing the annual stratified data, we compared three indices of abundance for determining statistically significant changes in annual abundance. Each of the indices closely approximated the annual differences of the poststratified estimates. Selection of the most appropriate index was dependent upon the species’ density distribution within habitat and the sample size in the different habitat areas. The methods used in this study are particularly useful for estimating individual species abundance from multispecies surveys and for retrospective st

Abundance and distribution of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in central and northern California during 1998 and summer 1999

The abundance and distribution of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in central and northern California was studied to allow future evaluation of their impact on salmonids, the ecosystem, and f isheries. Abundance at-sea was estimated by using the strip transect method from a fixed-wing aircraft with a belly viewing port. Abundance on land was estimated from 126-mm-format aerial photographs of animals at haulouts between Point Conception and the California−Oregon border. The sum of these two estimates represented total abundance for central and northern California. Both types of survey were conducted in May−June 1998, September 1998, December 1998, and July 1999. A haulout survey was conducted in July 1998. The greatest number of sea lions occurred near Monterey Bay and San Francisco Bay for all surveys. Abundance was high in central and northern California in 1998 when warm water from the 1997−98 El Niño affected the region and was low in July 1999 when cold water La Niña conditions were prevalent. At-sea abundance estimates in central and northern California ranged from 12,232 to 40,161 animals, and haulout abundance was 13,559 to 36,576 animals. Total abundance of California sea lions in central and northern California was estimated as 64,916 in May−June 1998, 75,673 in September 1998, 56,775 in December 1998, and 25,791 in July 1999. The proportion of total abundance to animals hauled-out for the four complete surveys ranged from 1.77 to 2.13, and the mean of 1.89 was used to estimate a total abundance of 49,697 for July 1998. This multiplier may be applicable in the future to estimate total abundance of California sea lions off central and northern California if only the abundance of animals at haulout sites is known.