Quantifying intrapopulation variability in stable isotope data for Spotted Seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus)

Stable isotope (SI) values of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) are useful for determining the trophic connectivity between species within an ecosystem, but interpretation of these data involves important assumptions about sources of intrapopulation variability. We compared intrapopulation variability in δ13C and δ15N for an estuarine omnivore, Spotted Seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus), to test assumptions and assess the utility of SI analysis for delineation of the connectivity of this species with other species in estuarine food webs. Both δ13C and δ15N values showed patterns of enrichment in fish caught from coastal to offshore sites and as a function of fish size. Results for δ13C were consistent in liver and muscle tissue, but liver δ15N showed a negative bias when compared with muscle that increased with absolute δ15N value. Natural variability in both isotopes was 5–10 times higher than that observed in laboratory populations, indicating that environmentally driven intrapopulation variability is detectable particularly after individual bias is removed through sample pooling. These results corroborate the utility of SI analysis for examination of the position of Spotted Seatrout in an estuarine food web. On the basis of these results, we conclude that interpretation of SI data in fishes should account for measurable and ecologically relevant intrapopulation variability for each species and system on a case by case basis.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

Spatial and temporal variability in the distribution and abundance of larval and juvenile fishes associated with pelagic Sargassum

A survey of the larval and juvenile fishes associated with the pelagic Sargassum habitat in the South Atlantic Bight and adjacent western Atlantic Ocean was conducted from July 1991 through March 1993. Fishes representing 104 taxonomic categories were identified, including reef fishes, coastal demersal, coastal pelagic, epipelagic and mesopelagic species. The most important families were Balistidae and Carangidae, each represented by 15 species. Species composition, species diversity and abundance varied both seasonally and regionally. Diversity was highest during spring through fall over the outer continental shelf and in the Gulf Stream. Abundance decreased from spring through winter and from the continental shelf into offshore waters. The numbers of fishes and fish biomass were found to be positively correlated with the wet weight of algae in most cases examined. The results of this study will be useful to fisheries managers assessing the potential impacts of commercial Sargassum harvesting in the region.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.

Horizontal and vertical movements of juvenile bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in relation to oceanographic conditions of the western North Atlantic, determined with ultrasonic telemetry

We employed ultrasonic transmitters to follow (for up to 48 h) the horizontal and vertical movements of five juvenile (6.8–18.7 kg estimated body mass) bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the western North Atlantic (off the eastern shore of Virginia). Our objective was to document the fishes’ behavior and distribution in relation to oceanographic conditions and thus begin to address issues that currently limit population assessments based on aerial surveys. Estimation of the trends in adult and juvenile Atlantic bluefin tuna abundance by aerial surveys, and other fishery-independent measures, is considered a priority. Juvenile bluefin tuna spent the majority of their time over the continental shelf in relatively shallow water (generally less then 40 m deep). Fish used the entire water column in spite of relatively steep vertical thermal gradients (≈24°C at the surface and ≈12°C at 40 m depth), but spent the majority of their time (≈90%) above 15 m and in water warmer then 20°C. Mean swimming speeds ranged from 2.8 to 3.3 knots, and total distance covered from 152 to 289 km (82–156 nmi). Because fish generally remained within relatively con-fined areas, net displacement was only 7.7–52.7 km (4.1–28.4 nmi). Horizontal movements were not correlated with sea surface temperature. We propose that it is unlikely that juvenile bluefin tuna in this area can detect minor horizontal temperature gradients (generally less then 0.5°C/km) because of the steep vertical temperature gradients (up to ≈0.6°C/m) they experience during their regular vertical movements. In contrast, water clarity did appear to influence behavior because the fish remained in the intermediate water mass between the turbid and phytoplankton-rich plume exiting Chesapeake Bay (and similar coastal waters) and the clear oligotrophic water east of the continental shelf.

Vertical and horizontal movements of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Great Australian Bight observed with ultrasonic telemetry

The vertical and horizontal movements of southern bluefin tuna (SBT), Thunnus maccoyii, in the Great Australian Bight were investigated by ultrasonic telemetry. Between 1992 and 1994, sixteen tuna were tracked for up to 49 h with depth or combined temperature-depth transmitting tags. The average swimming speeds (measured over the ground) over entire tracks ranged from 0.5 to 1.4 m/s or 0.5 to 1.4 body lengths/s. The highest sustained swimming speed recorded was 2.5 m/s for 18 hours. Horizontal movements were often associated with topographical features such as lumps, reefs, islands and the shelf break. They spent long periods of time at the surface during the day (nearly 30%), which would facilitate abundance estimation by aerial survey. At night, they tended to remain just below the surface, but many remained in the upper 10 m throughout the night. SBT were often observed at the thermocline interface or at the surface while travelling. A characteristic feature of many tracks was sudden dives before dawn and after sunset during twilight, followed by a gradual return to their original depth. It is suggested that this is a behavior evolved to locate the scattering layer and its associated prey when SBT are in waters of sufficient depth. SBT maintained a difference between stomach and ambient temperature of up to 9°C.

Climate variability and Crater Lake water levels

Crater Lake has fluctuated in elevation by 5 meters during the 20th Century. Reasons for these fluctuations were investigated as part of a long-term study of the Crater Lake ecosystem. Lake level changes were found to be closely related to precipitation variations. The lake can be thought of as acting as both a giant precipitation gage and as a large evaporation "pan". Winter snowfall variations are related to variations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Crater Lake offers a unique combination of simple geometry and hydrology, and a long record of supporting data, available nowhere else in the world for a caldera lake.

The Younger Dryas and millenial-scale oceanographic variability in the Sulu Sea, tropical western Pacific

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A high resolution, AMS carbon-14-dated sediment record from the Sulu Sea clearly indicates the Younger Dryas climatic event affected the western equatorial Pacific. Presence of the Younger Dryas in the tropical western Pacific indicates this climatic event is not restricted to the North Atlantic nor to high latitudes, but is global in extent.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

Winter climate variability and snowpack in the West

Snowpack is an important source of water supply in the western United States. This study examines the seasonal variability of an extensive history of snow observations over the western United States and Canada. It links variations in snowpack to variations in atmospheric circulation, surface temperature, and precipitation.

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

An overview of decadal to century time-scale variability in the climate system

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Time scales extracted from high-resolution proxy records and observations indicate that the spectrum of climate variability exhibits significant power in the range of decades to centuries superimposed on a red-noise continuum. The classical view of climate variability is based on the concept that observed fluctuations have their origin in periodic forcings on the same time scale. ... Instead, it is proposed that these fluctuations are linked to interactions within and between the different climate system components.