An overview of 1000 years of tropical climatic variability from ice cores from the Andes of southern Peru [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Each summer between 1976 and 1984 research was conducted on the Quelccaya Ice Cap with one central objective, to recover an ice core to bedrock from which an approximate 1000 year climatic history for tropical South America could be reconstructed. In 1983 that central objective was accomplished by recovering one core 155 meters in length containing 1350 years and a second core of 163.6 meters containing more than 1500 years of climatic history. ... The most significant climatic event in tropical South America over the last 1500 years was the "Little Ice Age" which is recorded between 1490 to 1880 A.D. in these ice core records. Records from the summit of the Quelccaya Ice Cap show that during the "Little Ice Age" period there was (1) a general increase in particulates (both insoluble and soluble, starting around 1490 A.D. and ending abruptly in 1880 A.D.; (2) an initial increase in net accumulation (1500-1720 A.D.) followed by a period of decreased net accumulation (1720-1860 A.D.); (3) more negative delta-O-18 values beginning in the 1520's and ending around 1880 A.D. The "Little Ice Age" event is evident as a perturbation in all five ice core parameters.

400 years of precipitation variability in central and southern California reconstructed from tree-rings [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Precipitation variability at 31 stations hanging from San Diego to San Francisco and from the coast to the Sierras was characterized ...

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

Distribution and biology of prowfish (Zaprora silenus) in the northeast Pacific

The prowfish (Zaprora silenus) is an infrequent component of bottom trawl catches collected on stock assessment surveys. Based on presence or absence in over 40,000 trawl catches taken throughout Alaskan waters southward to southern California, prowfish are most frequently encountered in the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands at the edge of the continental shelf. Based on data from two trawl surveys, relative abundance indicated by catch per swept area reaches a maximum between 100 m and 200 m depth and is much higher in the Aleutian Islands than in the Gulf of Alaska. Females weigh 3.7% more than males of the same length. Weight-length functions are W (g) = 0.0164 L2.92 (males) and W = 0.0170 L2.92 (females). Length at age does not differ between sexes and is described by L = 89.3(1 – e–0.181(t+0.554)), where L is total length in cm and t is age in years. Females reached 50% maturity at a length of 57.0 cm and an age of 5.1 years. Prowfish diet is almost entirely composed of gelatinous zooplankton, primarily scyphozoa and salps.

Annual estimates of the unobserved incidental kill of pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata attenuata) calves in the tuna purse-seine fishery of the eastern tropical Pacific

We estimated the total number of pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) mothers killed without their calves (“calf deficit”) in all tuna purse-seine sets from 1973– 90 and 1996–2000 in the eastern tropical Pacific. Estimates were based on a tally of the mothers killed as reported by color pattern and gender, several color-pattern-based frequency tables, and a weaning model. Over the time series, there was a decrease in the calf deficit from approximately 2800 for the western-southern stock and 5000 in the northeastern stock to about 60 missing calves per year. The mean deficit per set decreased from approximately 1.5 missing calves per set in the mid-1970s to 0.01 per set in the late-1990s. Over the time series examined, from 75% to 95% of the lactating females killed were killed without a calf. Under the assumption that these orphaned calves did not survive without their mothers, this calf deficit represents an approximately 14% increase in the reported kill of calves, which is relatively constant across the years examined. Because the calf deficit as we have defined it is based on the kill of mothers, the total number of missing calves that we estimate is potentially an underestimate of the actual number killed. Further research on the mechanism by which separation of mother and calf occurs is required to obtain better estimates of the unobserved kill of dolphin calves in this fishery.

A sudden collapse in distribution of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off southwestern Australia enables an objective re-assessment of biomass estimates

Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

The use of parasites in discriminating stocks of Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the northeast Pacific

The use of parasites as indicators of the stock structure of Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the northeast Pacific was investigated by using 328 adult (>55 cm fork length) halibut from 15 composite localities ranging from northern California to the northern Bering Sea and 96 juvenile (10–55 cm) halibut from five localities ranging from the northern Queen Charlotte Islands to the Bering Sea. Counts of eight selected parasite species (the juvenile acanthocephalans Corynosoma strumosum and C. villosum, the metacestode Nybelinia surmenicola, the digenean metacercaria Otodistomum sp., and the larval nematodes Anisakis simplex, Pseudoterranova decipiens, Contracaecum sp., and Spirurid gen. sp.) that produce infections of long duration, do not multiply in the host, and that have a relatively high abundance in at least one geographic locality were subjected to discriminant function analysis. Juvenile Pacific halibut showed no separation and, even though they were not heavily infected with parasites, the analysis suggested that juveniles could be a mixed stock. Three groups of adults were identified: fish from California to the southern Queen Charlotte Islands, those from the northern Queen Charlotte Islands to the central Bering Sea, and those from the central and north-ern Bering Sea. These groups suggest that the single stock concept be more thoroughly evaluated.

Physiological ecology of juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at the southern end of their distribution, the San Francisco Estuary and Gulf of the Farallones, California

Juvenile chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, from natal streams in California’s Central Valley demonstrated little estuarine dependency but grew rapidly once in coastal waters. We collected juvenile chinook salmon at locations spanning the San Francisco Estuary from the western side of the freshwater delta—at the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers—to the estuary exit at the Golden Gate and in the coastal waters of the Gulf of the Farallones. Juveniles spent about 40 d migrating through the estuary at an estimated rate of 1.6 km/d or faster during their migration season (May and June 1997) toward the ocean. Mean growth in length (0.18 mm/d) and weight (0.02 g/d) was insignificant in young chinook salmon while in the estuary, but estimated daily growth of 0.6 mm/d and 0.5 g/d in the ocean was rapid (P≤0.001). Condition (K factor) declined in the estuary, but improved markedly in ocean fish. Total body protein, total lipid, triacylglycerols (TAG), polar lipids, cholesterol, and nonesterified fatty acids concentrations did not change in juveniles in the estuary, but total lipid and TAG were depleted in ocean juveniles. As young chinook migrated from freshwater to the ocean, their prey changed progressively in importance from invertebrates to fish larvae. Once in coastal waters, juvenile salmon appear to employ a strategy of rapid growth at the expense of energy reserves to increase survival potential. In 1997, environmental conditions did not impede development: freshwater discharge was above average and water temperatures were only slightly elevated, within the species’ tolerance. Data suggest that chinook salmon from California’s Central Valley have evolved a strong ecological propensity for a ocean-type life history. But unlike populations in the Pacific Northwest, they show little estuarine dependency and proceed to the ocean to benefit from the upwelling-driven, biologically productive coastal waters.

Uncovering North American temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation

The extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) have been linked to fairly persistent classes of circulation anomalies over the North Pacific and parts of North America. It has been more difficult to uncover correspondingly consistent patterns of surface temperature and precipitation over much of the continent. The few regions that appear to have consistent SO-related patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are identified and discussed. Also discussed are regions that appear to have strong SO-related surface anomalies whose sign varies from episode to episode.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and forest fires in the southwestern United States

Fire statistics (area burned) and fire-scar chronologies from tree rings show reduced fire activity during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in forests of Arizona and New Mexico. This relationship probably stems from increased fuel moisture after a wet winter and spring, but also could involve climatic controls on lightning activity at the onset of the monsoon season.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Historical evidence of abrupt coastal climatic change in Southern California, 1790-1880

Historical sources of the late-18th and 19th centuries were searched for information on coastal weather conditions in Southern California. Relatively calm winters until 1828 were followed by unusually stormy winters from about 1829 to 1839. Later periods were again predominantly calm, with notable exceptions related to the ENSO events of 1845 and 1878. Following decreases through the stormy 1830s, sizes of kelp forests appear to have rebounded in the 1840s. ENSO occurrences and eruption of the volcano Cosiguina in 1835 are likely causes for changing wind patterns. Our results link the unique AD 1840 Macoma leptonoidea pelecypod shell layer in laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediment ("Macoma event") to abruptly changing oceanographic and weather patterns.