Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Fish and fisheries in the Sesan River Basin: catchment baseline, fisheries section

The present report was prepared for the Water and Food Challenge Program project “Optimizing the management of a cascade of reservoirs at the catchment level” (MK3). It constitutes the baseline assessment of fish and fisheries in the Sesan River Basin. The objective of the MK3 project is to contribute knowledge and recommendations so that cascades of reservoirs corresponding to hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin are managed in ways that are more fair and equitable for all water users. This project seeks to understand at the catchment scale the cumulative upstream and downstream consequences of management decisions taken for multiple reservoirs. Revised rules for water storage infrastructure management will in particular take into account fisheries and agricultural potential as well as hydropower gen

Asymmetric conservation benefits of circle hooks in multispecies billfish recreational fisheries: a synthesis of hook performance and analysis of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) postrelease survival

We evaluated the conservation benefits of the use of circle hooks compared with standard J hooks in the recreational fishery for Atlantic istiophorid billfishes, noting hooking location and the presence of trauma (bleeding) for 123 blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), 272 white marlin (Kajikia albida), and 132 sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) caught on natural baits rigged with one of the two hook types. In addition, we used pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) to follow the fate of 61 blue marlin caught on natural baits rigged with circle hooks or on a combination of artificial lure and natural bait rigged with J hooks. The frequencies of internal hooking locations and bleeding were significantly lower with circle hooks than with J hooks for each of the three species and were significantly reduced for blue marlin caught on J hooks than for white marlin and sailfish taken on the same hook type. Analysis of the data received from 59 PSATs (two tags released prematurely) indicated no mortalities among the 29 blue marlin caught on circle hooks and two mortalities among the 30 blue marlin caught on J hooks (6.7%). Collectively, the hook location and PSAT data revealed that blue marlin, like white marlin and sailfish, derive substantial conservation benefits from the use of circle hooks, and the negative impacts of J hooks are significantly reduced for blue marlin relative to the other two species.

Observer-reported skate bycatch in the commercial groundfish fisheries of Alaska

We analyzed skate catch data collected by observers in the North Pacific Groundfish Observer Program (NPGOP) from 1998 through 2008 to document recent changes in the identification of skates by observers and to examine the species composition of observed skate catch in Alaska’s groundfish fisheries as well as recent trends in skate retention by commercial fishermen. Historically, almost all skate bycatch has been reported by NPGOP observers as “skate unidentified.” However, since 2004 observers have been trained to identify skates to the genus and species level. In 2008 over 95% of all skates were identified at least to the genus level, and over 50% were identified to species. The most common species of skates identified by observers in groundfish fisheries are Bathyraja parmifera (Alaska skate), Raja binoculata (big skate), and Bathyraja aleutica (Aleutian skate). Species composition of reported skate catch generally reflects recent survey-derived biomass estimates, with B. parmifera dominating the catches in the Bering Sea and, to a lesser extent, in the Aleutian Islands region, and species of the genus Raja dominating catches in the Gulf of Alaska. A relatively high percentage of the skate catch on longline vessels is still reported at the family or genus level because of difficulties in the identification of skates not brought onboard the vessel. For the larger skate species, the proportion retained for processing has increased in recent years as the market price for skate product has increased. Although observed skate catch does not give a complete account of skate bycatch in the fisheries of the region, observer data provide critical information for the appropriate management of skate populations in Alaska.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Spatial and temporal variability in the relative contribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) stocks to winter mixed fisheries off South Florida

King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should

Diets of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska, 1993−1999

The diet of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) was determined from 1494 scats (feces) collected at breeding (rookeries) and nonbreeding (haulout) sites in Southeast Alaska from 1993 to 1999. The most common prey of 61 species identified were walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus), Pacific salmon (Salmonidae), arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), rockfish (Sebastes spp.), skates (Rajidae), and cephalopods (squid and octopus). Steller sea lion diets at the three Southeast Alaska rookeries differed significantly from one another. The sea lions consumed the most diverse range of prey categories during summer, and the least diverse during fall. Diet was more diverse in Southeast Alaska during the 1990s than in any other region of Alaska (Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands). Dietary differences between increasing and declining populations of Steller sea lions in Alaska correlate with rates of population change, and add credence to the view that diet may have played a role in the decline of sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

The structure and margins of the Lake Chilwa fisheries in Malawi: a value chain analysis

Small freshwater pelagic fisheries in closed lakes are very important to millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa providing livelihoods and nutritional security. However, returns from these fisheries have been shown to �uctuate in response to climatic variability. In order to understand the impact of these fluctuations on the livelihoods of people dependant on these fisheries, there is a need for information on how the fish value chain is organized and how it functions in response to variation in supplies. The results will feed into strategies that build resilience in fishing households against the uncertainties arising from unstable ecosystems. The Lake Chilwa fishery value chain is composed of fishers, processors, traders, fish transporters, boat owners, owners of fish processing shades, fisheries associations, gear owners, gear makers, firewood sellers, and traders of fishing gear and equipment. The value chain employs many people and local authorities can consider using this information in the design of rural development strategies for employment generation in small-scale fishing communities. The findings from this study have a number of implications for the improvement of the livelihood of fishers and enhancing their capacity to mitigate against the effects of climate change.

Fisheries production in Asia: its role in food security and nutrition

This paper reviews the status and some management issues of fisheries production in Asia, as well as the supply and demand situation. Its food security and nutritional roles and opportunities for value addition are also discussed.

Incidental catch and estimated discards of pelagic sharks from the swordfish and tuna fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea

Large pelagic sharks are caught incidentally in the swordfish and tuna fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. In our study, twelve shark species were documented as bycatch over three years from 1998 to 2000. Blue shark (Prionace glauca) was the predominant species in all gears and areas examined. Shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), common thresher shark (Alopias vulpinus), and tope shark (Galeorhinus galeus) were the next most abundant shark species—found in more than half of the areas sampled. Catch composition varied both in the areas and gears investigated. Sharks represented 34.3% in weight of total catches sampled in the Alboran Sea and 0.9% in the Straits of Sicily. Higher shark catches were observed in the swordfish longline fishery, where a nominal CPUE value reached 3.8 sharks/1000 hooks in the Alboran Sea. Size distribution by fishing gear varied significantly. Albacore longline catches consisted mainly of juveniles, whereas subadult and adult specimens were more frequent in the swordfish longline and driftnet fishery. The percentage of sharks brought onboard alive was exceptionally high; only 5.1% of the specimens died. Few discards (seven blue shark) were recorded in the Greek longline fleet during onboard sampling in the Aegean Se

Fisheries potential of village dams in northern Ghana

Results of a twelve-month assessment of the fisheries and aquaculture potential of small waterbodies (SWBs) in the West Gonja District of Northern Ghana are presented. The primary objectives of the project were to established whether the fisheries within the reservoir basins in the West Gonja and Nanumba Districts (Northern Region) could be enhanced and aquaculture associated with the SWBs could be viable.

Fisheries co-management and transaction costs

Fisheries co-management is increasingly seen as a solution to the problems of resource use conflicts and overexploitation. The importance of transactions costs may not have been given adequate attention. The transaction costs are 1) information costs, 2) collective decisionmaking tools, and 3) collective operational costs. The various components of transaction costs of fisheries co-management systems are described in this paper. These costs need to be determined for evaluating the feasibility of a co-managed fishery compared to a centrally managed one.