Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Marine eutrophication review. Part 1: Quantifying the effects of nitrogen enrichment on phytoplankton in coastal ecosystems; Part 2: Bibliography with abstracts

Professionals who are responsible for coastal environmental and natural resource planning and management have a need to become conversant with new concepts designed to provide quantitative measures of the environmental benefits of natural resources. These amenities range from beaches to wetlands to clean water and other assets that normally are not bought and sold in everyday markets. At all levels of government — from federal agencies to townships and counties — decisionmakers are being asked to account for the costs and benefits of proposed actions. To non-specialists, the tools of professional economists are often poorly understood and sometimes inappropriate for the problem at hand. This handbook is intended to bridge this gap. The most widely used organizing tool for dealing with natural and environmental resource choices is benefit-cost analysis — it offers a convenient way to carefully identify and array, quantitatively if possible, the major costs, benefits, and consequences of a proposed policy or regulation. The major strength of benefit-cost analysis is not necessarily the predicted outcome, which depends upon assumptions and techniques, but the process itself, which forces an approach to decision-making that is based largely on rigorous and quantitative reasoning. However, a major shortfall of benefit-cost analysis has been the difficulty of quantifying both benefits and costs of actions that impact environmental assets not normally, nor even regularly, bought and sold in markets. Failure to account for these assets, to omit them from the benefit-cost equation, could seriously bias decisionmaking, often to the detriment of the environment. Economists and other social scientists have put a great deal of effort into addressing this shortcoming by developing techniques to quantify these non-market benefits. The major focus of this handbook is on introducing and illustrating concepts of environmental valuation, among them Travel Cost models and Contingent Valuation. These concepts, combined with advances in natural sciences that allow us to better understand how changes in the natural environment influence human behavior, aim to address some of the more serious shortcomings in the application of economic analysis to natural resource and environmental management and policy analysis. Because the handbook is intended for non-economists, it addresses basic concepts of economic value such as willingness-to-pay and other tools often used in decision making such as costeffectiveness analysis, economic impact analysis, and sustainable development. A number of regionally oriented case studies are included to illustrate the practical application of these concepts and techniques.

Global transcriptional responses of the toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystis aeruginosa, to nitrogen stress, phosphorus stress, and growth on organic matter

Whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) was used to assess the transcriptomic response of the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa during growth with low levels of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (low N), low levels of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (low P), and in the presence of high levels of high molecular weight dissolved organic matter (HMWDOM). Under low N, one third of the genome was differentially expressed, with significant increases in transcripts observed among genes within the nir operon, urea transport genes (urtBCDE), and amino acid transporters while significant decreases in transcripts were observed in genes related to photosynthesis. There was also a significant decrease in the transcription of the microcystin synthetase gene set under low N and a significant decrease in microcystin content per Microcystis cell demonstrating that N supply influences cellular toxicity. Under low P, 27% of the genome was differentially expressed. The Pho regulon was induced leading to large increases in transcript levels of the alkaline phosphatase phoX, the Pst transport system (pstABC), and the sphX gene, and transcripts of multiple sulfate transporter were also significantly more abundant. While the transcriptional response to growth on HMWDOM was smaller (5–22% of genes differentially expressed), transcripts of multiple genes specifically associated with the transport and degradation of organic compounds were significantly more abundant within HMWDOM treatments and thus may be recruited by Microcystis to utilize these substrates. Collectively, these findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the nutritional physiology of this toxic, bloom-forming cyanobacterium and the role of N in controlling microcystin synthesis.

Severe droughts reduce estuarine primary productivity with cascading effects on higher trophic levels

Using a 10-yr time-series data set, we analyzed the effects of two severe droughts on water-quality and ecosystem processes in a temperate, eutrophic estuary (Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina). During the droughts, dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were on average 46–68% lower than the long-term mean due to reduced riverine input. Phytoplankton productivity and biomass were slightly below average for most of the estuary during a spring–autumn drought in 2002, but were dramatically lower than average throughout the estuary during an autumn–winter drought in 2007–2008. Droughts affected upper trophic levels through alteration of both habitat condition (i.e., bottom-water dissolved oxygen levels) and food availability. Bottomwater dissolved oxygen levels were near or slightly above average during the 2002 drought and during summer 2007. Concomitant with these modest improvements in bottom-water oxygen condition, fish kills were greatly reduced relative to the long-term average. Low-oxygen bottom-water conditions were more pronounced during summer 2008 in the latter stages of the 2007–2008 drought, and mesozooplankton abundances were eight-fold lower in summer 2008 than during nondrought years. Below-average mesozooplankton abundances persisted for well over 1 yr beyond cessation of the drought. Significant fish kills were observed in summer 2008 and 2009, perhaps due to the synergistic effects of hypoxia and reduced food availability. These results indicate that droughts can exert both ephemeral and prolonged multiyear influence on estuarine ecosystem processes and provide a glimpse into the future, when many regions of the world are predicted to face increased drought frequency and severity due to climate change.

Historical nitrogen and phosphorus loadings to the northern Gulf of Mexico

Primary productivity in many coastal systems is nitrogen (N) limited; although, phytoplankton productivity may be limited by phosphorus (P) seasonally or in portions of an estuary. Increases in loading of limiting nutrients to coastal ecosystems may lead to eutrophication (Nixon 1996). Anthropogenically enhanced eutrophication includes symptoms such as loss of seagrass beds, changes in algal community composition, increased algal (phytoplankton) blooms (Richardson et al. 2001), hypoxic or anoxic events, and fish kills (Bricker et al. 2003).

Factors influencing the timing and frequency of spawning and fecundity of the goldlined seabream (Rhabdosargus sarba) (Sparidae) in the lower reaches of an estuary

We have studied the reproductive biology of the goldlined seabream (Rhabdosargus sarba) in the lower Swan River Estuary in Western Australia, focusing particularly on elucidating the factors influencing the duration, timing, and frequency of spawning and on determining potential annual fecundity. Our results demonstrate that 1) Rhabdosargus sarba has indeterminate fecundity, 2) oocyte hydration commences soon after dusk (ca. 18:30 h) and is complete by ca. 01:30−04:30 h and 3) fish with ovaries containing migratory nucleus oocytes, hydrated oocytes, or postovulatory follicles were caught between July and November. However, in July and August, their prevalence was low, whereas that of fish with ovaries containing substantial numbers of atretic yolk granule oocytes was high. Thus, spawning activity did not start to peak until September (early spring), when salinities were rising markedly from their winter minima. The prevalence of spawning was positively correlated with tidal height and was greatest on days when the tide changed from flood to ebb at ca. 06:00 h, i.e., just after spawning had ceased. Because our estimate of the average daily prevalence of spawning by females during the spawning season (July to November) was 36.5%, individual females were estimated to spawn, on average, at intervals of about 2.7 days and thus about 45 times during that period. Therefore, because female R. sarba with total lengths of 180, 220, and 260 mm were estimated to have batch fecundities of about 4500, 7700, and 12,400 eggs, respectively, they had potential annual fecundities of about 204,300, 346,100 and 557,500 eggs, respectively. Because spawning occurs just prior to strong ebb tides, the eggs of R. sarba are likely to be transported out of the estuary into coastal waters where salinities remain at ca. 35‰. Such downstream transport would account for the fact that, although R. sarba exhibits substantial spawning activity in the lower Swan River Estuary, few of its early juveniles are recruited into the nearshore shallow waters of this estuary.