Annual report 2006 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Fifteenth meeting, Yokohama, Japan, October 13-22, 2006

◾ Report of Opening Session (p. 1) ◾ Report of Governing Council (p. 15) ◾ Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (p. 47) ◾ Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board Inter-sessional Meeting (p. 63); Science Board (p. 73); Biological Oceanography Committee (p. 87); Fishery Science Committee (p. 95); Marine Environmental Quality Committee (p. 105); MONITOR Technical Committee (p. 115); Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (p. 125); Technical Committee on Data Exchange (p. 133) ◾ Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups: Section on Carbon and Climate (p. 139); Section on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms in the North Pacific (p. 143); Working Group 18 on Mariculture in the 21st Century - The Intersection Between Ecology, Socio-economics and Production (p. 147); Working Group 19 on Ecosystem-Based Management Science and its Application to the North Pacific (p. 151); Working Group 20 on Evaluations of Climate Change Projections (p. 157); Working Group 21 on Non-indigenous Aquatic Species (p. 159); Study Group to Develop a Strategy for GOOS (p. 165) ◾ Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Scientific Program: Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (p. 169); CFAME Task Team (p. 175); MODEL Task Team (p. 181) ◾ Reports of Advisory Panels: Advisory Panel for a CREAMS/PICES Program in East Asian Marginal Seas (p. 187); Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific (p. 193); Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (p. 197); Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (p. 201); Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-calibration Experiment (p. 205) ◾ Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (p. 209) ◾ Membership List (p. 259) ◾ List of Participants (p. 277) ◾ List of PICES Acronyms (p. 301) ◾ List of Acronyms (p. 303)

Annual report 2007 - North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Sixteenth meeting, Victoria, Canada, October 26-November 5, 2007

Report of Opening Session (p. 1). Report of Governing Council (p. 15). Report of the Finance and Administration Committee (p. 65). Reports of Science Board and Committees: Science Board Inter-Sessional Meeting (p. 83); Science Board (p. 93); Biological Oceanography Committee (p. 105); Fishery Science Committee (p. 117); Marine Environmental Quality Committee (p. 129); Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee (p. 139); Technical Committee on Data Exchange (p. 145); Technical Committee on Monitoring (p. 153). Reports of Sections, Working and Study Groups: Section on Carbon and Climate (p. 161); Section on Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms in the North Pacific (p. 167); Working Group 19 on Ecosystem-based Management Science and its Application to the North Pacific (p. 173); Working Group 20 on Evaluations of Climate Change Projections (p. 179); Working Group 21 on Non-indigenous Aquatic Species (p. 183); Study Group to Develop a Strategy for GOOS (p. 193); Study Group on Ecosystem Status Reporting (p. 203); Study Group on Marine Aquaculture and Ranching in the PICES Region (p. 213); Study Group on Scientific Cooperation between PICES and Non-member Countries (p. 225). Reports of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program: Implementation Panel on the CCCC Program (p. 229); CFAME Task Team (p. 235); MODEL Task Team (p. 241). Reports of Advisory Panels: Advisory Panel for a CREAMS/PICES Program in East Asian Marginal Seas (p. 249); Advisory Panel on Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey in the North Pacific (p. 253); Advisory Panel on Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean (p. 255); Advisory Panel on Marine Birds and Mammals (p. 261); Advisory Panel on Micronekton Sampling Inter-calibration Experiment (p. 265). 2007 Review of PICES Publication Program (p. 269). Guidelines for PICES Temporary Expert Groups (p. 297). Summary of Scientific Sessions and Workshops (p. 313). Report of the ICES/PICES Conference for Early Career Scientists (p. 355). Membership (p. 367). Participants (p. 387). PICES Acronyms (p. 413). Acronyms (p. 415).

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Fish and habitat community assessments on North Carolina shipwrecks: potential sites for detecting climate change in the graveyard of the Atlantic

The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary (MNMS) was the nation’s first sanctuary, originally established in 1975 to protect the famous civil war ironclad shipwreck, the USS Monitor. Since 2008, sanctuary sponsored archeological research has branched out to include historically significant U-boats and World War II shipwrecks within the larger Graveyard of the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. These shipwrecks are not only important for their cultural value, but also as habitat for a wide diversity of fishes, invertebrates and algal species. Additionally, due to their unique location within an important area for biological productivity, the sanctuary and other culturally valuable shipwrecks within the Graveyard of the Atlantic are potential sites for examining community change. For this reason, from June 8-30, 2010, biological and ecological investigations were conducted at four World War II shipwrecks (Keshena, City of Atlanta, Dixie Arrow, EM Clark), as part of the MNMS 2010 Battle of the Atlantic (BOTA) research project. At each shipwreck site, fish community surveys were conducted and benthic photo-quadrats were collected to characterize the mobile conspicuous fish, smaller prey fish, and sessile invertebrate and algal communities. In addition, temperature sensors were placed at all four shipwrecks previously mentioned, as well as an additional shipwreck, the Manuela. The data, which establishes a baseline condition to use in future assessments, suggest strong differences in both the fish and benthic communities among the surveyed shipwrecks based on the oceanographic zone (depth). In order to establish these shipwrecks as sites for detecting community change it is suggested that a subset of locations across the shelf be selected and repeatedly sampled over time. In order to reduce variability within sites for both the benthic and fish communities, a significant number of surveys should be conducted at each location. This sampling strategy will account for the natural differences in community structure that exist across the shelf due to the oceanographic regime, and allow robust statistical analyses of community differences over time.

An oceanographic characterizations of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary and Pacific Northwest: interpretive summary of ocean climate and regional processes through satellite remote sensing

This report presents the results of a two-year investigation and summary of oceanographic satellite data obtained from multiple operational data providers and sources, spanning years of operational data collection. Long-term summaries of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and SST fronts, Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA), surface currents, ocean color chlorophyll and turbidity, and winds are provided. Merged satellite oceanographic data revealed information on: (1) seasonal cycles and timing of transition periods; (2) linkages between seasonal effects (warming and cooling), upwelling processes and transport; and (3) nutrient/sediment sources, sinks, and physical limiting factors controlling surface response for Olympic Coast marine environments. These data and information can be used for building relevant hind cast models, ecological forecasts, and regional environmental indices (e.g. upwelling, climate, “hot spot”) on biological distribution and/or response in the PNW.

Regional context of the climate of H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest is a 6400 ha forest of Douglas fir, western hemlock, and Pacific silver fir located in, and typical of, the central portion of the western slope of the Cascade mountain range of Oregon. The forest is one of 19 sites in the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program sponsored by the National Science Foundation. ... Because of the scientific significance of Andrews Forest, it is important to investigate the temporal variability of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation values at the site and identify past times of anomalous climatic conditions. It is also important to establish quantitatively the relationships between the climate of Andrews Forest and that of its surrounding area and, hence, place the climate of Andrews Forest into its regional context.