Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

The economic importance of marine angler expenditures in the United States.

In 1998, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a series of marine angler expenditure surveys in the coastal regions of the United States (U.S.) to evaluate marine recreational fishing expenditures and the financial impacts of these expenditures in each region and the U.S. as a whole. In this report, we use the previously estimated expenditure estimates to assess the total financial impact of anglers’ saltwater expenditures. Estimates are provided for sales, income, employment, and tax impacts for each coastal state in the U.S. Aggregate estimates are also provided for the entire U.S., excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and Texas. Direct, indirect, and induced effects associated with resident and non-resident angler expenditures were estimated using a regional input-output modeling system called IMPLAN Pro. Nationwide, recreational saltwater fishing generated over $30.5 billion in sales in 2000, nearly $12.0 billion in income, and supported nearly 350,000 jobs. Approximately 89 cents of every dollar spent by saltwater anglers was estimated to remain within the U.S. economy. At the state level, many of the goods anglers purchased were imports, and, as such, as little as 44 cents of every dollar stayed in Rhode Island and as much as 80 cents of every dollar stayed in Georgia. In the Northeast, the highest impacts were generated in New Jersey, even though recreational fishing expenditures in Massachusetts and Maryland were considerably higher. In the Southeast, the highest impacts were generated in Florida, and on the Pacific Coast, the highest impacts were generated in California. Expenditures on boat maintenance/expenses generated more impacts than any other expenditure category in the U.S. Expenditures on rods and reels was the single most important expense category in terms of generating impacts in most of the Northeast states. Expenditures on boat expenses generated the highest in most Southeast states, and expenditures for boat accessories produced the highest impacts in most Pacific Coast states.(PDF file contains 184 pages.)

Maturation of Nineteen Species of Finfish off the Northeast Coast of the United States, 1985-1990

Observations on maturation stages of nineteen species of economically important finfish off the Northeast coast of the USA were analyzed to examine relationships between fish size or age, and maturity. Maturation schedules and median lengths (L50) and ages (A50) at maturation were derived by fitting the logistic model to the observed proportions. Analyses were generally restricted to observations from 1985 to 1990 obtained during stratified random bottom trawl surveys conducted in spring and autumn by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries in waters of the continental shelf from Nova Scotia to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Butterfish, Peprilus triacanthus, attained sexual maturity at the smallest median length (11.4 cm, males) and pollock, Pollachius virens, at the highest (41.8 em, males). Median length at maturity for gadiforms ranged from 22.2 to 41.8 em. Within the pleuronectiforms, median length at maturity ranged from 19.1 to 30.4 cm. Median lengths for the pelagic and miscellaneous demersal species were in the same ranges as the pleuronectiforms. Butterfish also attained sexual maturity at the youngest median age (0.9 yr, both sexes) whereas redfish, Sebastes fasciatus, were the latest to mature (5.5 yr, both sexes). For gadids, the median age at maturity ranged from 1.3 to 2.3 yr. Within the pleuronectiforms, median age at maturity ranged from 1.3 to 4.4 yr and, for pelagic species, from 0.9 to 3.0 yr. Median lengths and ages for many species are lower than those reported in earlier studies of the same general region of the Northwest Atlantic. (PDF file contains 72 pages.)

Marine Mammal Strandings in the United States: Proceedings of the Second Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop, Miami, Florida, December 3-5, 1987

Over a decade ago, in August 1977, the First Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop was convened in Athens, Georgia. That workshop, organized by j.R. Geraci and D.J. St. Aubin, not only considered biology and pathology of stranded marine mammals, but it also served as a springboard for the formation of regional marine mammal stranding networks in the United States. The ramifications have been extremely important to the field of marine mammalogy since, for some species, examination or rehabilitation of stranded specimens serves as virtually the only source of information on distribution, anatomy, physiology, reproduction, and pathology. The First Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop led to increased awareness of the marine mammals themselves, as well as the logistic and legal factors associated with effective handling of the animals. A number of individuals indicated that they felt that a Second Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop held prior to the Seventh Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals (Miami, Florida; December 1987) would be both timely and productive. Accordingly, we organized the workshop and scheduled it to occur on 3-5 December. Our goals for the workshop were several, including 1) providing descriptions of some research, especially new techniques, regarding stranded marine mammals; 2) providing a forum where scientists could interact and possibly initiate cooperative research activities; 3) presenting information regarding procedures used effectively to handle stranded animals; 4) assessing ways to standardize data and specimen collection, archiving, and retrieval; and 5) providing a forum for assessing accomplishments and status of regional stranding networks to date, as well as for making recommendations regarding future activities of the networks. Nearly 100 individuals representing Federal and State governments, academic institutions, the oceanarium industry, consulting groups, conservation organizations, and the private sector attended the workshop (see Workshop Participants, this volume). (PDF file contains 166 pages.)

Climate adaptation and the fifth amendment of the United States Constitution: How do adaptation strategies impact regulatory takings claims?

As the impacts and potential of climate change are realized at the governance level, states are moving towards adaptation strategies that include greater regulatory restrictions on development within coastal zones. The purpose of this paper is to outline the impacts of existing and planned regulatory mechanisms on the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution, which prevents the government taking of private property for public use without just compensation. A short history of regulatory takings is explained, and the potential legal issues surrounding mitigation and adaptation measures for coastal communities are discussed. The goal is to gain an understanding of the legal issues that must be resolved by governments to effectively deal with regulatory takings claims as coastal mitigation and adaptation plans are implemented. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Revealing the appetite of the marine aquarium fish trade: the volume and biodiversity of fish imported into the United States

The aquarium trade and other wildlife consumers are at a crossroads forced by threats from global climate change and other anthropogenic stressors that have weakened coastal ecosystems. While the wildlife trade may put additional stress on coral reefs, it brings income into impoverished parts of the world and may stimulate interest in marine conservation. To better understand the influence of the trade, we must first be able to quantify coral reef fauna moving through it. Herein, we discuss the lack of a data system for monitoring the wildlife aquarium trade and analyze problems that arise when trying to monitor the trade using a system not specifically designed for this purpose. To do this, we examined an entire year of import records of marine tropical fish entering the United States in detail, and discuss the relationship between trade volume, biodiversity and introduction of non-native marine fishes. Our analyses showed that biodiversity levels are higher than previous estimates. Additionally, more than half of government importation forms have numerical or other reporting discrepancies resulting in the overestimation of trade volumes by 27%. While some commonly imported species have been introduced into the coastal waters of the USA (as expected), we also found that some uncommon species in the trade have also been introduced. This is the first study of aquarium trade imports to compare commercial invoices to government forms and provides a means to, routinely and in real time, examine the biodiversity of the trade in coral reef wildlife species.

Comparison of life history parameters for landed and discarded fish captured off the southeastern United States

Commercial fisheries that are managed with minimum size limits protect small fish of all ages and may affect size-selective mortality by the differential removal of fast growing fish. This differential removal may decrease the average size at age, maturation, or sexual transition of the exploited population. When fishery-independent data are not available, a comparison of life history parameters of landed with those of discarded fish (by regulation) will indicate if differential mortality is occurring with the capture of young but large fish (fast growing phenotypes). Indications of this differential size-selective mortality would include the following: the discarded portion of the target fish would have similar age ranges but smaller sizes at age, maturation, and sexual transition as that of landed fish. We examined three species with minimum size limits but different exploitation histories. The known heavily exploited species (Rhomboplites aurorubens [vermilion snapper] and Pagrus pagrus [red porgy]) show signs of this differential mortality. Their landed catch includes many young, large fish, whereas discarded fish had a similar age range and mean ages but smaller sizes at age than the landed fish. The unknown exploited species, Mycteroperca phenax (scamp), showed no signs of differential mortality due to size-selective fishing. Landed catch consisted of old, large fish and discarded scamp had little overlap in age ranges, had significantly different mean ages, and only small differences in size at age when compared to comparable data for landed fish.

Age, growth, and spawning season of red bream (Beryx decadactylus) off the southeastern United States

Red bream (Beryx decadactylus) is a commercially important deep-sea benthopelagic fish with a circumglobal distribution on insular and continental slopes and seamounts. In the United States, small numbers are caught incidentally in the wreckfish (Polyprion americanus) fishery which operates off the southeastern coast, but no biological information exists for the management of the U.S. red bream population. For this study, otoliths (n=163) and gonads (n=161) were collected from commercially caught red bream between 2003 and 2008 to determine life history parameters. Specimens ranged in size from 410 to 630 mm fork length and were all determined to be mature by histological examination of the gonads. Females in spawning condition were observed from June through September, and reproductively active males were found year-round. Sectioned otoliths were difficult to interpret, but maximum age estimates were much higher than the 15 years previously reported for this species from the eastern North Atlantic based on whole-otolith analysis. Estimated ages ranged from 8 to 69 years, and a minimum lifespan of 49 years was validated by using bomb radiocarbon dating. Natural mortality was estimated at 0.06/yr. This study shows that red bream are longer lived and more vulnerable to overfishing than previously assumed and should be managed carefully to prevent overexploitation.

Biomass and reproduction of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off the Pacific northwestern United States, 2003–2005

The Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) is distributed along the west coast of North America from Baja California to British Columbia. This article presents estimates of biomass, spawning biomass, and related biological parameters based on four trawl-ichthyoplankton surveys conducted during July 2003 –March 2005 off Oregon and Washington. The trawl-based biomass estimates, serving as relative abundance, were 198,600 t (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.51) in July 2003, 20,100 t (0.8) in March 2004, 77,900 t (0.34) in July 2004, and 30,100 t (0.72) in March 2005 over an area close to 200,000 km2. The biomass estimates, high in July and low in March, are a strong indication of migration in and out of this area. Sardine spawn in July off the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast and none of the sampled fish had spawned in March. The estimated spawning biomass for July 2003 and July 2004 was 39,184 t (0.57) and 84,120 t (0.93), respectively. The average active female sardine in the PNW spawned every 20–40 days compared to every 6–8 days off California. The spawning habitat was located in the southeastern area off the PNW coast, a shift from the northwest area off the PNW coast in the 1990s. Egg production in off the PNW for 2003–04 was lower than that off California and that in the 1990s. Because the biomass of Pacific sardine off the PNW appears to be supported heavily by migratory fish from California, the sustainability of the local PNW population relies on the stability of the population off California, and on local oceanographic conditions for local residence.

Cross-shelf and seasonal variation in larval fish assemblages on the southeast United States continental shelf off the coast of Georgia

Seasonal and cross-shelf patterns were investigated in larval fish assemblages on the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia. The influence of environmental factors on larval distributions also was examined, and larval transport processes on the shelf were considered. Ichthyoplankton and environmental data were collected approximately every other month from spring 2000 to winter 2002. Ten stations were repeatedly sampled along a 110-km cross-shelf transect, including four stations in the vicinity of Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary. Correspondence analysis (CA) on untransformed community data identified two seasonal (warm weather [spring, summer, and fall] and winter) and three cross-shelf larval assemblages (inner-, mid-, and outer-shelf ). Five environmental factors (temperature, salinity, density, depth of the water column, and stratification) were related to larval cross-shelf distribution. Specifically, increased water column stratification was associated with the outer-shelf assemblage in spring, summer, and fall. The inner shelf assemblage was associated with generally lower temperatures and lower salinities in the spring and summer and higher salinities in the winter. The three cross-shelf regions indicated by the three assemblages coincided with the location of three primary water masses on the shelf. However, taxa occurring together within an assemblage were transported to different parts of the shelf; thus, transport across the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia cannot be explained solely by twodimensional physical factors.

Small-scale Commercial Culturing of Northern Bay Scallops, Argopecten irradians irradians, in Atlantic United States and Canada

In recent decades, hatchery-growout culture of oysters, Crassostrea virginica, and northern quahogs, Mercenaria mercenaria, has been commercially successful in Atlantic United States and oysters in Atlantic Canada. Culturists have not had success, as yet, with northern bay scallops, Argopecten irradians irradians. Large mortalities occur during the culture process, mainly because the scallops are relatively delicate and some die when handled. In addition, too little edible meat, i.e. the adductor muscle, is produced for the culture operation to be profitable. However, three companies, one in Massachusetts, one in New Brunswick, and one on Prince Edward Island, Canada, have discovered that they can produce bay scallops successfully by harvesting them when partially-to fully-grown and selling them whole. In restaurants, the scallops are cooked and served with all their meats (adductor muscles and rims) and also with the shells, which have been genetically-bred for bright colors. The scallop seed are produced in hatcheries and then grown in lantern or pearl nets and cages to market size. Thus far, production has been relatively small, just beyond the pilot-scale, until a larger demand develops for this product.

Collaborative Pacific Halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis, Bycatch Control by Canada and the United States

ABSTRACT—Bycatch mortality of Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis, in nontarget fisheries is composed primarily of immature fish, and substantial reductions in yield to directed halibut fisheries result from this bycatch. Distant-water bottomtrawl fleets operating off the North American coast, beginning in the mid 1960’s, experienced bycatch mortality of over 12,000 t annually. Substantial progress on reducing this bycatch was not achieved until the of extension fisheries jurisdictions by the United States and Canada in 1977. Bycatch began to increase again during the expansion of domestic catching capacity for groundfish, and by the early 1990’s it had returned to levels seen during the period of foreign fishing. Collaborative action by Canada and the United States through the International Pacific Halibut Commission has resulted in substantial reductions in bycatch mortality in some areas. Methods of control have operated at global, fleet, and individual vessel levels. We evaluate the hierarchy of effectiveness for these control measures and identify regulatory needs for optimum effects. New monitoring technologies offer the promise of more cost-effective approaches to bycatch reduction.

History of Whaling and Estimated Kill of Right Whales, Balaena glacialis, in the Northeastern United States, 1620–1924

This study, part of a broader investigation of the history of exploitation of right whales, Balaena glacialis, in the western North Atlantic, emphasizes U.S. shore whaling from Maine to Delaware (from lat. 45°N to 38°30'N) in the period 1620–1924. Our broader study of the entire catch history is intended to provide an empirical basis for assessing past distribution and abundance of this whale population. Shore whaling may have begun at Cape Cod, Mass., in the 1620’s or 1630’s; it was certainly underway there by 1668. Right whale catches in New England waters peaked before 1725, and shore whaling at Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket continued to decline through the rest of the 18th century. Right whales continued to be taken opportunistically in Massachusetts, however, until the early 20th century. They were hunted in Narragansett Bay, R.I., as early as 1662, and desultory whaling continued in Rhode Island until at least 1828. Shore whaling in Connecticut may have begun in the middle 1600’s, continuing there until at least 1718. Long Island shore whaling spanned the period 1650–1924. From its Dutch origins in the 1630’s, a persistent shore whaling enterprise developed in Delaware Bay and along the New Jersey shore. Although this activity was most profi table in New Jersey in the early 1700’s, it continued there until at least the 1820’s. Whaling in all areas of the northeastern United States was seasonal, with most catches in the winter and spring. Historically, right whales appear to have been essentially absent from coastal waters south of Maine during the summer and autumn. Based on documented references to specific whale kills, about 750–950 right whales were taken between Maine and Delaware, from 1620 to 1924. Using production statistics in British customs records, the estimated total secured catch of right whales in New England, New York, and Pennsylvania between 1696 and 1734 was 3,839 whales based on oil and 2,049 based on baleen. After adjusting these totals for hunting loss (loss-rate correction factor = 1.2), we estimate that 4,607 (oil) or 2,459 (baleen) right whales were removed from the stock in this region during the 38-year period 1696–1734. A cumulative catch estimate of the stock’s size in 1724 is 1,100–1,200. Although recent evidence of occurrence and movements suggests that right whales continue to use their traditional migratory corridor along the U.S. east coast, the catch history indicates that this stock was much larger in the 1600’s and early 1700’s than it is today. Right whale hunting in the eastern United States ended by the early 1900’s, and the species has been protected throughout the North Atlantic since the mid 1930’s. Among the possible reasons for the relatively slow stock recovery are: the very small number of whales that survived the whaling era to become founders, a decline in environmental carrying capacity, and, especially in recent decades, mortality from ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear.

A Decline in Starfish, Asterias forbesi, Abundance and a Concurrent Increase in Northern Quahog, Mercenaria mercenaria, Abundance and Landings in the Northeastern United States

The abundance of the common starfish, Asterias forbesi, fluctuates widely over time. The starfish is a predator of pre-recruit northern quahogs, Mercenaria mercenaria. During the 1990’s, starfish became scarce in Raritan Bay and Long Island Sound. Quahog populations concurrently erupted in abundance and quahog landings have risen sharply in both locations. The extensive scale of this observation would seem to imply a cause and effect; at the least, both populations may be responding differently to a large scale exogenous factor.

History of Oystering in the United States and Canada, Featuring the Eight Greatest Oyster Estuaries

Oyster landings in the United States and Canada have been based mainly on three species, the native eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, native Olympia oyster, Ostreola conchaphila, and introduced Pacific oyster, C. gigas. Landings reached their peak of around 27 million bushels/year in the late 1800's and early 1900's when eastern oysters were a common food throughout the east coast and Midwest. Thousands of people were involved in harvesting them with tongs and dredges and in shucking, canning, packing, and transporting them. Since about 1906, when the United States passed some pure food laws, production has declined. The causes have been lack of demand, siltation of beds, removal of cultch for oyster larvae while harvesting oysters, pollution of market beds, and oyster diseases. Production currently is about 5.6 million bushels/year.