Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Evaluation of rockfish abundance in untrawlable habitat: combining acoustic and complementary sampling tools

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are an important component of North Pacific marine ecosystems and commercial fisheries. Because the rocky, high-relief substrate that rockfishes often inhabit is inaccessible to standard survey trawls, population abundance assessments for many rockfish species are difficult. As part of a large study to classify substrate and compare complementary sampling tools, we investigated the feasibility of using an acoustic survey in conjunction with a lowered stereo-video camera, a remotely operated vehicle, and a modified bottom trawl to estimate rockfish biomass in untrawlable habitat. The Snakehead Bank south of Kodiak Island, Alaska, was surveyed repeatedly over 4 days and nights. Dusky rockfish (S. variabilis), northern rockfish (S. polyspinis), and harlequin rockfish (S. variegatus) were the most abundant species observed on the bank. Backscatter attributed to rockfish were collected primarily near the seafloor at a mean height off the bottom of 1.5 m. Total rockfish backscatter and the height of backscatter off the bottom did not differ among survey passes or between night and day. Biomass estimates for the 41 square nautical-mile area surveyed on this small, predominantly untrawlable bank were 2350 metric tons (t) of dusky rockfish, 331 t of northern rockfish, and 137 t of harlequin rockfish. These biomass estimates are 5–60 times the density estimated for these rockfish species by a regularly conducted bottom trawl survey covering the bank and the surrounding shelf. This finding shows that bottom trawl surveys can underestimate the abundance of rockfishes in untrawlable areas and, therefore, may underestimate overall population abundance for these species.

Length-weight relationships of demersal fishes from the Gulf of Salamanca, Colombia: [part 2]

The parameters a and b of the length-weight relationship of the form W=aL super(b) are presented for 37 fish species, belonging to 17 families, caught during a demersal trawl survey over the period December 1995 to March 1998 in the Gulf of Salamanca, Colombia

First Record of the Ragged-tooth Shark, Odontaspis ferox, off the U.S. Atlantic Coast

On 11 September 1994, a large shark was captured and later identified as the ragged-tooth shark, Odontaspis ferox (Risso). The shark was captured during routine bottom trawl survey operations onboard the NOAA R/V Albatross IV, approximately 25 n.mi. south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. (lat. 34° 51' N, long. 75° 26' W) with a “36 Yankee” bottom trawl towed at 3.5 knots. Average water depth at the time of capture was 173 m, bottom temperature was 17.8°C, and salinity was 36.41‰. Total length (cm), fork length (cm), weight (kg), and sex were recorded, the specimen was tagged, photographed, and returned live to t

Seabed classification for trawlability determined with a multibeam echo sounder on Snakehead Bank in the Gulf of Alaska

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) tend to aggregate near rocky, cobble, or generally rugged areas that are difficult to survey with bottom trawls, and evidence indicates that assemblages of rockfish species may differ between areas accessible to trawling and those areas that are not. Consequently, it is important to determine grounds that are trawlable or untrawlable so that the areas where trawl survey results should be applied are accurately identified. To this end, we used multibeam echosounder data to generate metrics that describe the seafloor: backscatter strength at normal and oblique incidence angles, the variation of the angle-dependent backscatter strength within 10° of normal incidence, the scintillation of the acoustic intensity scattered from the seafloor, and the seafloor rugosity. We used these metrics to develop a binary classification scheme to estimate where the seafloor is expected to be trawlable. The multibeam echosounder data were verified through analyses of video and still images collected with a stereo drop camera and a remotely operated vehicle in a study at Snakehead Bank, ~100 km south of Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Comparisons of different combinations of metrics derived from the multibeam data indicated that the oblique-incidence backscatter strength was the most accurate estimator of trawlability at Snakehead Bank and that the addition of other metrics provided only marginal improvements. If successful on a wider scale in the Gulf of Alaska, this acoustic remote-sensing technique, or a similar one, could help improve the accuracy of rockfish stock assessments.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight: 2006

In May 2006, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), in conjunction with the EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory (NHEERL), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters throughout the mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) portion of the eastern U.S. continental shelf. The study area encompassed the region from Cape Cod, MA and Nantucket Shoals in the northeast to Cape Hatteras in the south, and was defined using a one nautical mile buffer of the shoreline extended seaward to the shelf break (~100-m depth contour). A total of 50 stations were targeted for sampling using standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna). Through coordination with the NOAA Fisheries Service/Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NFS/NEFSC), samples of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) also were obtained from 30 winter 2007 bottom-trawl survey stations in overlapping portions of the study area and used for analysis of chemical-contaminant body burdens.

The Hudson-Raritan Estuary as a crossroads for distribution of blue (Callinectes sapidus), lady (Ovalipes ocellatus), and Atlantic rock (Cancer irroratus) crabs

Blue (Callinectes sapidus)(Portunidae),lady (Ovalipes ocellatus)(Portunidae), and Atlantic rock (Cancer irroratus) (Cancridae) crabs inhabit estuaries on the northeast United States coast for parts or all of their life cycles. Their distributions overlap or cross during certain seasons. During a 1991–1994 monthly otter trawl survey in the Hudson-Raritan Estuary between New York and New Jersey, blue and lady crabs were collected in warmer months and Atlantic rock crabs in colder months. Sex ratios, male:female, of mature crabs were 1:2.0 for blue crabs, 1:3.1 for lady crabs, and 21.4:1 for Atlantic rock crabs. Crabs, 1286 in total, were subsampled for dietary analysis, and the dominant prey taxa for all crabs, by volume of foregut contents, were mollusks and crustaceans. The proportion of amphipods and shrimp in diets decreased as crab size increased. Trophic niche breadth was widest for blue crabs, narrower for lady crabs, and narrowest for Atlantic rock crabs. Trophic overlap was lowest between lady crabs and Atlantic rock crabs, mainly because of frequent consumption of the dwarf surfclam (Mulinia lateralis) by the former and the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) by the latter. The result of cluster analysis showed that size class and location of capture of predators in the estuary were more influential on diet than the species or sex of the predators.

Quantifying annual variation in catchability for commercial and research fishing

Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible.

Changes over time in the spatial distribution of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska, 1984-1996

Triennial bottom trawl survey data from 1984 to 1996 were used to evaluate changes in the summer distribution of walleye pollock in the western and central Gulf of Alaska. Differences between several age groups of pollock were evaluated. Distribution was examined in relation to several physical characteristics, including bottom depth and distance from land. Interspecies associations were also analyzed with the Bray-Curtis clustering technique to better understand community structure. Our results indicated that although the population numbers decreased, high concentrations of pollock remained in the same areas during 1984–96. However, there was an increase in the number of stations where low-density pollock concentrations of all ages were observed, which resulted in a decrease in mean population density of pollock within the GOA region. Patterns emerging from our data suggested an alternative to Mac-Call’s “basin hypothesis” which states that as population numbers decrease, there should be a contraction of the population range to optimal habitats. During 1984–96 there was a concurrent precipitous decline in Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska. The results of our study suggest that decreases in the mean density of adult pollock, the main food in the Steller sea lion diet, combined with slight changes in the distribution of pollock (age-1 pollock in particular) in the mid-1980s, may have contributed to decreased foraging efficiency in Steller sea lions. Our results support the prevailing conceptual model for pollock ontogeny, although there is evidence that substantial spawning may also occur outside of Shelikof Strait.

Distribution and co-occurrence of rockfishes (family: Sebastidae) over trawlable shelf and slope habitats of California and southern Oregon

The rockfishes of the sebastid genus Sebastes are a very important fishery resource off the coasts of California and southern Oregon. How-ever, many of the 54 managed stocks of west coast rockfish have recently reached historically low population levels, leading fishery managers to re-examine current management practices. Management of rockfish stocks as multispecies aggregates, as opposed to independent stocks within the ground-fish fishery, can be more desirable when nontargeted bycatch, discard, and management complexity are considered. Rockfish assemblage structure and species co-occurrences were determined by using data from the Alaska Fisheries Science Center triennial continental shelf bottom trawl survey. The weight of rockfish species in trawl catches was expressed as a catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) statistic, from which species spatial distributions, overlaps, diversity, and richness were analyzed. Multidimensional scaling of transformed CPUE data was employed in indirect gradient and multivariate partitioning analyses to quantify assemblage relationships. Results indicated that rockfish distributions closely match the bathymetry of coastal waters. Indirect gradient analysis suggested that depth and latitude are the principal factors in structuring the spatial distributions of rockfish on trawlable habitat. In addition, four assemblages were identified through the joint evaluation of species’ distributions and multivariate partitioning analyses: 1) deep-water slope; 2) northern shelf; 3) southern shelf; and 4) nearshore. The slope, shelf, and near-shore groups are found in depth ranges of 200–500 m, 100–250 m, and 50–150 m, respectively. The division of northern and southern shelf assemblages occurs over a broad area between Cape Mendocino and Monterey Canyon. The results of this analysis are likely to have direct application in the management of rockfish stocks off the coasts of southern Oregon and California.

East African Freshwater Fisheries Research Organization Annual Report 1970

The Annual report presents activities carried out by the Organization during the reporting period 1970. It explains the scientific work carried out by the Organization which includes: bottom trawl survey, a limnological survey of Lake Victoria for the period January to December 1970, maturity, sex ration and fecundity of lung fish (protopterus aethiopicus Heckel) from Lake Victoria, On the fish species of Lake Baringo, identification of organisms in Lake Victoria responsible for ecosounder traces, further observations on the ecology of the Nile perch (Lates niloticus Linne) in Lake Victoria and Lake Kioga, fishery economics studies, The African journal of Tropical Hydrobiology and fisheries and observation on fish marketing experiments in Tanzania

Current composition, distribution and relative abundance of the fish stocks of Lake Victoria, Uganda

An experimental bottom trawl survey was carried out in the Uganda sector of Lake Victoria during the period May 1993 through May 1995 with the aim of establishing the current composition, distribution and abundance of the fish stocks. A total of 205 successful one-hour hauls were taken using the 25.4mm mesh size codend trawl net during the 19 cruises. Fourteen fish taxa (excluding the haplochromines) were recorded with Lates niloticus constituting the bulk (97 %) of the fish retained. Haplochromines and L. nilolicus were encountered in all areas sampled while Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and other tilapiines were restricted to waters less than 20 metres deep. An average catch of 154 kg/hr was obtained in waters less than 30 metres deep. Species diversity and relative abundance varied with depth. Only two of the fifteen fish taxa (haplochromines and L.niloticus) were recorded in waters deeper than 30 metres and the bulk of the fish by weight (92 %) was obtained in waters less than 30 metres.

An examination of the usefulness of single-species biomass models for the management of Lake Victoria fisheries

Nile perch (Lates niloticus), tilapia (Oreochromis spp), dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea, silver cyprinid), and haplochromines (Tribe Haplochromini) form the backbone of the commercial fishery on Lake Victoria. These fish stocks account for about 70% of the total catch in the three riparian states Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. The lake fisheries have been poorly managed, in part due to inadequate scientific analysis and management advice. The overall objective of this project was to model the stocks of the commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria with the view of determining reference points and current stock status. The Schaefer biomass model was fitted to available data for each stock (starting in the 1960s or later) in the form of landings, catch per unit effort, acoustic survey indices, and trawl survey indices. In most cases, the Schaefer model did not fit all data components very well, but attempts were made to find the best model for each stock. When the model was fitted to the Nile perch data starting from 1996, the estimated current biomass is 654 kt (95% CI 466–763); below the optimum of 692 kt and current harvest rate is 38% (33–73%), close to the optimum of 35%. At best, these can be used as tentative guidelines for the management of these fisheries. The results indicate that there have been strong multispecies interactions in the lake ecosystem. The findings from our study can be used as a baseline reference for future studies using more complex models, which could take these multispecies interactions into account.

Whole-gear efficiency of a benthic survey trawl for flatfish

Whole-gear efficiency (the proportion of fish passing between the otter doors of a bottom trawl that are subsequently captured) was estimated from data collected during experiments to measure the herding efficiency of bridles and doors, the capture efficiency of the net, and the length of the bridles sufficiently close to the seafloor to elicit a herding response. The experiments were focused on four species of flatfish: arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), flathead sole (Hippoglossoides elassodon), rex sole (Glyptocephalus zachirus), and Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus). Whole-gear efficiency varied with fish length and reached maximum values between 40% and 50% for arrowtooth flounder, flathead sole, and rex sole. For Dover sole, however, whole-gear efficiency declined from a maximum of 33% over the length range sampled. Such efficiency estimates can be used to determine catchability, which, in turn, can be used to improve the accuracy of stock assessment models when the time series of a survey is short.