Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Chemical contaminants, pathogen exposure and general health status of live and beach-cast Washington sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni)

Analyses of blood and liver samples from live captured sea otters and liver samples from beachcast sea otter carcasses off the remote Washington coast indicate relatively low exposure to contaminants, but suggest that even at the low levels measured, exposure may be indicated by biomarker response. Evidence of pathogen exposure is noteworthy - infectious disease presents a potential risk to Washington sea otters, particularly due to their small population size and limited distribution. During 2001 and 2002, 32 sea otters were captured, of which 28 were implanted with transmitters to track their movements and liver and blood samples were collected to evaluate contaminant and pathogen exposure. In addition, liver samples from fifteen beachcast animals that washed ashore between 1991 and 2002 were analyzed to provide historical information and a basis of reference for values obtained from live otters. The results indicate low levels of metals, butyltins, and organochlorine compounds in the blood samples, with many of the organochlorines not detected except polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and a few aromatic hydrocarbons detected in the liver of the live captured animals. Aliphatic hydrocarbons were measurable in the liver from the live captured animals; however, some of these are likely from biogenic sources. A significant reduction of vitamin A storage in the liver was observed in relation to PCB, dibutyltin and octacosane concentration. A significant and strong positive correlation in vitamin A storage in the liver was observed for cadmium and several of the aliphatic hydrocarbons. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) cytochrome P450 induction was elevated in two of 16 animals and may be potentially related to aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon exposure. Mean concentration of total butyltin in the liver of the Washington beach-cast otters was more than 15 times lower than the mean concentration reported by Kannan et al. (1998) for Southern sea otters in California. Organochlorine compounds were evident in the liver of beach-cast animals, despite the lack of large human population centers and development along the Washington coast. Concentrations of PCBs and chlordanes (e.g., transchlordane, cis-chlordane, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor and oxychlordane) in liver of Washington beach-cast sea otters were similar to those measured in Aleutian and California sea otters, excluding those from Monterey Bay, which were higher. Mean concentrations of 1,1,1,- trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophyenyl)ethanes (DDTs) were lower, and mean concentrations of cyclohexanes (HCH, e.g., alpha BHC, beta BHC, delta BHC and gamma BHC) were slightly higher in Washington beach-cast otters versus those from California and the Aleutians. Epidemiologically, blood tests revealed that 80 percent of the otters tested positive for morbillivirus and 60 percent for Toxoplasma, the latter of which has been a significant cause of mortality in Southern sea otters in California. This is the first finding of positive morbillivirus titers in sea otters from the Northeast Pacific. Individual deaths may occur from these diseases, perhaps more so when animals are otherwise immuno-compromised or infected with multiple diseases, but a population-threatening die-off from these diseases singly is unlikely while population immunity remains high. The high frequency of detection of morbillivirus and Toxoplasma in the live otters corresponds well with the cause of death of stranded Washington sea otters reported herein, which has generally been attributable to infectious disease. Washington’s sea otter population continues to grow, with over 1100 animals currently inhabiting Washington waters; however, the rate of growth has slowed over recent years. The population has a limited distribution and has not yet reached its carrying capacity and as such, is still considered at high risk to catastrophic events. (PDF contains 189 pages)

Survey report of NOAA Ship McArthur II cruises AR-04-04, AR-05-05 and AR-06-03: Habitat classification of side scan sonar imagery in support of deep-sea coral/sponge explorations at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary

Habitat mapping and characterization has been defined as a high-priority management issue for the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS), especially for poorly known deep-sea habitats that may be sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. As a result, a team of scientists from OCNMS, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), and other partnering institutions initiated a series of surveys to assess the distribution of deep-sea coral/sponge assemblages within the sanctuary and to look for evidence of potential anthropogenic impacts in these critical habitats. Initial results indicated that remotely delineating areas of hard bottom substrate through acoustic sensing could be a useful tool to increase the efficiency and success of subsequent ROV-based surveys of the associated deep-sea fauna. Accordingly, side scan sonar surveys were conducted in May 2004, June 2005, and April 2006 aboard the NOAA Ship McArthur II to: (1) obtain additional imagery of the seafloor for broader habitat-mapping coverage of sanctuary waters, and (2) help delineate suitable deep-sea coral/sponge habitat, in areas of both high and low commercial-fishing activities, to serve as sites for surveying-in more detail using an ROV on subsequent cruises. Several regions of the sea floor throughout the OCNMS were surveyed and mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Imagery from the side scan sonar mapping efforts was integrated with other complementary data from a towed camera sled, ROVs, sedimentary samples, and bathymetry records to describe geological and biological (where possible) aspects of habitat. Using a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999), we created a preliminary map of various habitat polygon features for use in a geographical information system (GIS). This report provides a description of the mapping and groundtruthing efforts as well as results of the image classification procedure for each of the areas surveyed. (PDF contains 60 pages.)

Atlas of abundance and distribution patterns of ichthyoplankton from the Northeast Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea ecosystems: based on research conducted by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (1972–1996)

This regional atlas summarizes and illustrates the distribution and abundance patterns of fish eggs and larvae of 102 taxa within 34 families found in the Northeast Pacific Ocean including the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and U.S. west coast ecosystems. Data were collected over a 20+ year period (1972–1996) by the Recruitment Processes Program of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). Ichthyoplankton catch records used in this atlas were generated from 11,379 tows taken during 100 cruises. For each taxon, general life history data are briefly summarized from the literature. Published information on distribution patterns of eggs and larvae are reviewed for the study area. Data from AFSC ichthyoplankton collections were combined to produce an average spatial distribution for each taxon. These data were also used to estimate mean abundance and percent occurrence by year and month, and relative abundance by larval length and season. Abundance from each tow was measured as catch per 10 m2 surface area. A larval distribution and abundance map was produced with a geographic information system using ArcInfo software. For taxa with identifiable pelagic eggs, distribution maps showing presence or absence of eggs are presented. Presence or absence of adults in the study area is mapped based on recent literature and data from AFSC groundfish surveys. Distributional records for adults and early life history stages revealed several new range extensions. (PDF file contains 288 pages.)

Sexual Reproduction and Early Development in the Estuarine Sea Anemone, Nematostella vectensis Stephenson, 1935

This dissertation: 1) determines the factor(s) responsible for spawning induction in NematosteJla vectensis; 2) isolates, describes, and documents the source of jelly from egg masses of N. vectensis; and 3) describes N. vectensis' early development. Namatostella vectensis were maintained on a 7-day mussel feeding/water change regime over 159 days. Within 36 hours of mussel feeding/water change. 69.1% of females and 78.5% of males spawned reliably. Through manipulation of feeding, water change, oxygen and nitrogenous waste concentrations, spawning induction was found to be triggered by the oxygen concentration associated with water change, and not by feeding. Ammonia, anemones' major waste product, inhibited this induction in a concentration-dependent manner. Female N. vectensis release eggs in a persistent jellied egg mass which is unique among the Actiniaria. The major component of this egg mass jelly was a positive periodic acid-Schiffs staining, 39.5-40.5 kD glycoprotein. Antibodies developed in rabbits against this glycoprotein bound to jelly of intact egg masses and to granules (~ 2.8 IJm in diameter) present in female anemone mesenteries and their associated filaments. Antibodies did not label male tissues. Nematostella vecfensis embryos underwent first karyokinesis -60 minutes following the addition of sperm to eggs. Second nuclear division took place, followed by first cleavage, 90-120 minutes later. Each of the 4 blastomeres that resulted from first cleavage contained a single nucleus. Arrangement of these blastomeres ranged from radial to pseudospiral. Embryonic development was both asynchronous and holoblastic. Following formation of the 4-cell stage, 71% of embryos proceeded to cleave again to form an 8-cell stage. In each of the remaining 29% of embryos, a fusion of from 2-4 blastomeres resulted in 4 possible patterns which had no affect on either cleavage interval timing or subsequent development. The fusion event was not due to ooplasmic segregation. Blastomeres isolated from 4-celled embryos were regulative and developed into normal planula larvae and juvenile anemones that were 1/4 the size of those that developed from intact 4-celled embryos. Embryos exhibiting the fusion phenomenon were examined at the fine structural level. The fusion phenomenon resulted in formation of a secondary syncytium and was not a mere compaction of blastomeres.

Behavioral and Physiological Responses to Light by the Sea Anemone Anthopleura elegantissima as Related to its Algal Endosymbionts

The endosymbiosis of algae with invertebrates may be viewed with at least two major orientations. On the one hand, one may focus on the plant and animal as essentially separate organisms living together, as the word symbiosis states. The products which are exchanged between the plant and animal and the effects of the association on either partner are then of particular interest. On the other hand, one may consider the partnership as an entity, and attempt to investigate the physiology, behavior, etc. of the symbiotic association, observing what differences may appear between the "plant-animal" and analogous non-symbiotic organisms. It is the second approach which I have tried to take in this thesis. I have concentrated on some effects of light on symbiotic and aposymbiotic sea anemones of the species Anthopleura elegantissima, particularly with respect to pigmentation and several types of behavior.

Guide to the Identification of Larval and Early Juvenile Poachers (Scorpaeniformes: Agonidae) from the Northeastern Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea

Developmental stages of 22 species representing 16 genera of agonid fishes occurring in the northeastern Pacific Ocean from San Francisco Bay to the Arctic Ocean are presented. Three of these species also occur in the North Atlantic Ocean. Larval stages of nine species are described for the first time. Additional information or illustrations intended to augment original descriptions are provided for eight species. Information on five other species is provided from the literature for comparative purposes. The primary objective of this guide is to present taxonomic characters to help identify the early life history stages of agonid fishes in field collections. Meristic, morphometric, osteological, and pigmentation characters are used to identify agonid larvae. Meristic features include numbers of median-fin elements, pectoral-fin rays, dermal plates, and vertebrae. Eye diameter, body depth at the pectoral-fin origin, snout to first dorsal-fin length, and pectoral-fin length are the most useful morphological characters. Presence, absence, numbers, and/or patterns of dermal plates in lateral rows or on the ventral surface of the gut are also useful. Other important characters are the presence, absence, numbers, and ornamentation of larval head spines. Lastly, distinct pigmentation patterns are often diagnostic. The potential utility of larval characters in phylogenetic analysis of the family Agonidae is discussed. (PDF file contains 92 pages.)

A Photographic Catalog of Killer Whales, Orcinus orca, frOIll the Central Gulf of Alaska to the Southeastern Bering Sea

In 1992 and 1993, researchers from the National Marine Mammal Laboratory initiated photo-identification studies on Alaskan killer whales, Orcinus orca. Waters from Kodiak Island west to the central and eastern Aleutian Islands and southeastern Bering Sea were surveyed. A total of 289 individual whales were identified. A photographic record of the whales encountered during these surveys is presented. When photographs of the 289 individual whales were compared among various regions in Alaska (Prince William Sound and Southeast Alaska) and areas outside Alaska (British Columbia, Washington, and California), 11 matches were found. The count is conservative because the 1992 and 1993 surveys were limited in geographical range, restricted to summer periods, and whales may have been missed along the survey trackline. Future research incorporating both photoidentification studies and line transect surveys will provide reliable abundance estimates of Alaskan killer whales. (PDF file contains 58 pages.)

Ecology of Juvenile Walleye Pollock, Theragra chalcogramma: Papers from the workshop "The Importance of Prerecruit Walleye Pollock to the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ecosystems" Seattle, Washington, 28-30 October 1993

The Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC), National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), hosted an international workshop, 'The Importance of Prerecruit Walleye Pollock to the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ecosystems," from 28 to 30 October 1993. This workshop was held in conjunction with the annual International North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) meeting held in Seattle. Nearly 100 representatives from government agencies, universities, and the fishing industry in Canada, Japan, the People's Republic of China, Russia, and the United States took part in the workshop to review and discuss current knowledge on juvenile pollock from the postlarval period to the time they recruit to the fisheries. In addition to its importance to humans as a major commercial species, pollock also serves as a major forage species for many marine fishes, birds, and mammals in the North Pacific region. (PDF file contains 236 pages.)

The Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fishery of the Middle Atlantic Bight and Southern New England Waters

Summer flounder, Paralichthys dentatus, scup, Stenotomus chrysops, and black sea bass, Centropristis striata, cooccur within the Middle Atlantic Bight and off southern New England and are important components of commercial and recreational fisheries. The commercial otter trawl fishery for these species is primarily a winter fishery, whereas the recreational fishery takes place between late spring and autumn. The otter trawl fishery generally targets summer flounder, and less frequently scup, while black sea bass occurs as bycatch. Trips in which all three species were present yielded highest aggregate landings per unit of effort (LPUE) levels and occurred more often than trips landing only one or two species. More than 50% of the trips in the trawl fishery landed at least two of the three species. In contrast, greater than 75% of the recreational landings of each species occurred as a result of trips landing only one species. Differences in the fisheries resulted from the interactions of seasonal changes in species distributions and gear selectivity. (PDF file contains 18 pages.)

Structure and Historical Changes in the Groundfish Complex of the Eastern Bering Sea

The eastern Bering Sea is a major marine ecosystem containing some of the largest populations of groundfish, crabs, birds, and marine mammals in the world. Commercial catches of groundfish in this region have averaged about 1.6 million tons (t) annually in 1970-86. This report describes the species and relative importance of species in the eastern Bering Sea groundfish complex, the environment in which they live, and the history of the fisheries and management during the years 1954 - 1985. Historical changes in abundance and the condition of the principal species at the end of this first 30 years of exploitation are also examined. Results suggest that the biomass of the groundfish complex is characterized by variability rather than stability. The most reliable data (1979 to 1985) suggests that the biomass of the complex fluctuated between 11.8 and 15.7 million t. Even greater variability is suggested by the less reliable data from earlier years. Because of its dominance in the complex and wide fluctuations in abundance, walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is primarily responsible for the major variations in abundance of the complex. After 30 years of exploitation, the complex was generally in excellent condition. (PDF file contains 100 pages.)

The Distribution of Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtles (Lepidochelys kempi) Along the Texas Coast: An Atlas

Eight hundred sixty-five records of Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempi) reported from Texas between the late 1940's to April 1990 were compiled from six data bases and the literature, then plotted on a series of Texas maps. Four categories of Kemp's ridleys are identified throughout the atlas: head-started (turtles that are raised in captivity their first year of life), wild, historical (pre-1980), and nesters. Geographic, seasonal, and size distributions of the turtle categories are plotted by regions. Most Kemp's ridleys were reported from the northeast and central Texas coast. They were reported from both inshore (landward of barrier islands) and offshore (seaward of barrier islands). Scattered nestings occurred in the central to southern regions. Kemp's ridleys were found more often during the spring and summer. A total of 546 turtle records contained measurements; most were 20-59.9 cm curved carapace length and considered sub-adults. Comparison of distributions of head-started and wild Kemp's ridleys suggests head-started Kemp's ridleys inhabit the same areas as wild Kemp's ridleys. (PDF file contains 56 pages.)

Control of California sea lion predation of winter-run steelhead at the Hiram M. Chittenden Locks, Seattle, December 1985-April 1986 with observations on sea lion abundance and distribution in Puget Sound

A study/predation control program was conducted at the Hiram M. Chittenden Locks in Seattle, Washington from 20 December through 23 April 1986. The principal objectives were to document the rate and effects of predation on winter-run steelhead (Salmo gairdneri Richardson) by California sea lions (Zalophus californianus); to control and minimize predation in order to increase the escapement of wild winter-runs to the Lake Washington watershed; to evaluate and recommend potential long term procedures for control of steelhead predation; and to document the abundance and distribution of California sea lions in Puget Sound.

Greenland turbot Reinhardtius hippoglossoides of the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region

Greenland turbot (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) is a commercially important flounder in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. In the latter, its center of abundance is in the eastern Bering Sea and along the Aleutian Islands chain where its population is managed as a single stock. Harvest levels in this region of the North Pacific during the period 1970-81 were comparable with those in the northwest and northeast Atlantic, with annual average catches of 53,000 metric tons (t). However, the catch in 1984 dropped sharply to 23,100 t, in part because of reduced quotas arising from concern over continued poor recruitment and declining catch-per-unit-effort. Recruitment failure was manifested in 1) the sharp decline in the catch rate of young flsh in annual research trawl surveys on the continental shelf of the eastern Bering Sea and 2) an increasing proportion of older and larger fish in the commercial catch from the continental slope of both the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. The cause ofthe decline in recruitment could not be clearly identifled. Greenland turbot of the Bering Sea-Aleutian Islands share certain distributional features with the North Atlantic form. There is an apparent bathymetric change in the size and age of fish, with younger animals occupying continental shelf depths and the older individuals residing at depths of the continental slope. At shallow depths the young are exposed to temperature fluctuations, whereas older animals along the slope are exposed to relatively stable temperatures. A hypothesis is proposed for describing the temporal and spatial paths by which young animals reach the mature or spawning portion of the population. (PDF file contains 38 pages.)

Atlas and zoogeography of common fishes in the Bering Sea and northeastern Pacific

The geographic and depth frequency distribution of 124 common demersal fish species in the northeastern Pacific were plotted from data on me at the Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Center (NWAFC), National Marine Fisheries Service. The data included catch records of fishes and invertebrates from 24,881 samples taken from the Chukchi Sea, throughout the Bering Sea, Aleutian Basin, Aleutian Archipelago, and the Gulf of Alaska, and from southeastern Alaska south to southern California. Samples were collected by a number of agencies and institutions over a 30-year period (1953-83), but were primarily from NWAFC demersal trawls. The distributions of all species with 100 or more occurrences in the data set were plotted by computer. Distributions plotted from these data were then compared with geographic and depth-range limits given in the literature. These data provide new range extensions (geographic, depth, or both) for 114 species. Questionable extensions are noted, the depth ranges determined for 95% of occurrences, and depths of most frequent occurrence are recorded. Ranges of the species were classified zoogeographically, according to life zone, and with regard to the depth zone of greatest occurrence. Because most species examined have broad geographic ranges, they do not provide the best information for testing the validity of proposed zoogeographic province boundaries. Because of the location of greatest sampling effort and methods used in sampling, most fIShes examined were eastern boreal Pacific, sublittoral-bathyal (outer shelf) species. (PDF file contains 158 pages.)