50 resultados para Risks Assessment Methods
Resumo:
Examination of hard parts recovered from scats (feces) is currently the most common method for determining the diet of pinnipeds. However, large or sharp prey remains may be spewed (regurgitated) biasing prey composition and size estimations in diet studies based on scats. Percent frequency of occurrence (FO%) and age or size of selected prey remains recovered from northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) scat (n=3444) and spew samples (n=267) collected from rookeries on St. George Island and St. Paul Island, Alaska, between 1990 and 2000 were compared to determine if a bias in prey composition and age or size estimations existed between scats and spews. Overall prey composition was similar between sample type and location, but the relative FO% of primary prey (≥5%) varied by sample type and location. Age or size estimates of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and of two species of gonatid squids (Gonatopsis borealis and Berryteuthis magister) were significantly larger in spews than in scats. Observed differences in FO% and estimated age or size of prey species whose remains were found in scats and spews likely result from size-selective digestion of prey remains. Scats were biased toward smaller prey remains, whereas spews were biased toward larger prey remains and cephalopod beaks. The percent overlap between age classes of walleye pollock caught by the commercial trawl fishery and age classes of walleye pollock consumed by northern fur seals varied noticeably between sample types for both islands (scats: St. George=15. 5%; St. Paul=4.1%; spews: St. George=94.6%; St. Paul=89.6%). These results demonstrate that the inclusion of multiple sampling methods allows for a more accurate assessment of northern fur seal prey occurrence and prey age and size.
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The importance of quantifying the economic returns to investments in aquatic resources research together with the social, environmental and institutional impacts of such investments is widely recognized among ICLARM's donors, trustees and beneficiaries. As with other Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centers, ICLARM is being asked to provide specific accounts of the outputs of its research and their impact on farms and on fisheries, including their socioeconomic impact. Such impact information has become a necessary, though not sufficient, basis for setting priorities and allocating resources for research for the CGIAR centers. This paper discusses the types and methods of impact assessment relevant to ICLARM's work. A three-pronged assessment approach is envisaged to capture the full range of impacts: 1) ex ante assessment for research priority setting; 2) assessment prior to dissemination or adoption along with monitoring and evaluation; and 3) ex post impact assessment. It also discusses the objectives and scope for operational impact assessment of ICLARM's research.
Resumo:
This is the assessment and exploitation of eel (Anguilla anguilla. L) stocks in the River Thames and its catchment performed by the Polytechnic of Central London and The Thames Water Authority Research Project between April 1985 and April 1986. The report makes an examination of the pre-pollution history of the Thames eel fishing industry to permit an assessment of the recovery of the eel stock following the cleaning up of the Tideway. Archive material shows that the 19th Century stock was larger and more widely distributed than it is today, and the natural recruitment of elvers to the system is now much smaller. Sampling of commercial catches and trapping studies, including comparisons of different mesh sizes, have been undertaken in order to develop a statistical model of the Inner Estuary eel stock and its fishery. Local migrations and activity throughout the year are studied. Electro—fishing methods and eel traps are compared using mark-recapture techniques in order to develop an accurate means of assessing relative abundance and distribution. Work so far has concentrated mainly on the Rivers Darent and Roding but a preliminary distribution map for the whole catchment has been prepared. An experimental trapping site was established on the River Darent to investigate natural recruitment and up—river migration of elvers and juvenile eels. 1790 small eels were taken in 1985 providing information on the scale, timings and factors affecting the migration.
Resumo:
Two large hydrologic issues face the Kings Basin, severe and chronic overdraft of about 0.16M ac-ft annually, and flood risks along the Kings River and the downstream San Joaquin River. Since 1983, these floods have caused over $1B in damage in today’s dollars. Capturing flood flows of sufficient volume could help address these two pressing issues which are relevant to many regions of the Central Valley and will only be exacerbated with climate change. However, the Kings River has high variability associated with flow magnitudes which suggests that standard engineering approaches and acquisition of sufficient acreage through purchase and easements to capture and recharge flood waters would not be cost effective. An alternative approach investigated in this study, termed On-Farm Flood Flow Capture, involved leveraging large areas of private farmland to capture flood flows for both direct and in lieu recharge. This study investigated the technical and logistical feasibility of best management practices (BMPs) associated with On-Farm Flood Flow Capture. The investigation was conducted near Helm, CA, about 20 miles west of Fresno, CA. The experimental design identified a coordinated plan to determine infiltration rates for different soil series and different crops; develop a water budget for water applied throughout the program and estimate direct and in lieu recharge; provide a preliminary assessment of potential water quality impacts; assess logistical issues associated with implementation; and provide an economic summary of the program. At check locations, we measured average infiltration rates of 4.2 in/d for all fields and noted that infiltration rates decreased asymptotically over time to about 2 – 2.5 in/d. Rates did not differ significantly between the different crops and soils tested, but were found to be about an order of magnitude higher in one field. At a 2.5 in/d infiltration rate, 100 acres are required to infiltrate 10 CFS of captured flood flows. Water quality of applied flood flows from the Kings River had concentrations of COC (constituents of concern; i.e. nitrate, electrical conductivity or EC, phosphate, ammonium, total dissolved solids or TDS) one order of magnitude or more lower than for pumped groundwater at Terranova Ranch and similarly for a broader survey of regional groundwater. Applied flood flows flushed the root zone and upper vadose zone of nitrate and salts, leading to much lower EC and nitrate concentrations to a depth of 8 feet when compared to fields in which more limited flood flows were applied or for which drip irrigation with groundwater was the sole water source. In demonstrating this technology on the farm, approximately 3,100 ac-ft was diverted, primarily from April through mid-July, with about 70% towards in lieu and 30% towards direct recharge. Substantial flood flow volumes were applied to alfalfa, wine grapes and pistachio fields. A subset of those fields, primarily wine grapes and pistachios, were used primarily to demonstrate direct recharge. For those fields about 50 – 75% of water applied was calculated going to direct recharge. Data from the check studies suggests more flood flows could have been applied and infiltrated, effectively driving up the amount of water towards direct recharge. Costs to capture flood flows for in lieu and direct recharge for this project were low compared to recharge costs for other nearby systems and in comparison to irrigating with groundwater. Moreover, the potentially high flood capture capacity of this project suggests significant flood avoidance costs savings to downstream communities along the Kings and San Joaquin Rivers. Our analyses for Terranova Ranch suggest that allocating 25% or more flood flow water towards in lieu recharge and the rest toward direct recharge will result in an economically sustainable recharge approach paid through savings from reduced groundwater pumping. Two important issues need further consideration. First, these practices are likely to leach legacy salts and nitrates from the unsaturated zone into groundwater. We develop a conceptual model of EC movement through the unsaturated zone and estimated through mass balance calculations that approximately 10 kilograms per square meter of salts will be flushed into the groundwater through displacing 12 cubic meters per square meter of unsaturated zone pore water. This flux would increase groundwater salinity but an equivalent amount of water added subsequently is predicted as needed to return to current groundwater salinity levels. All subsequent flood flow capture and recharge is expected to further decrease groundwater salinity levels. Second, the project identified important farm-scale logistical issues including irrigator training; developing cropping plans to integrate farming and recharge activities; upgrading conveyance; and quantifying results. Regional logistical issues also exist related to conveyance, integration with agricultural management, economics, required acreage and Operation and Maintenance (O&M).
Resumo:
This report argues for greatly increased resources in terms of data collection facilities and staff to collect, process, and analyze the data, and to communicate the results, in order for NMFS to fulfill its mandate to conserve and manage marine resources. In fact, the authors of this report had great difficulty defining the "ideal" situation to which fisheries stock assessments and management should aspire. One of the primary objectives of fisheries management is to develop sustainable harvest policies that minimize the risks of overfishing both target species and associated species. This can be achieved in a wide spectrum of ways, ranging between the following two extremes. The first is to implement only simple management measures with correspondingly simple assessment demands, which will usually mean setting fishing mortality targets at relatively low levels in order to reduce the risk of unknowingly overfishing or driving ecosystems towards undesirable system states. The second is to expand existing data collection and analysis programs to provide an adequate knowledge base that can support higher fishing mortality targets while still ensuring low risk to target and associated species and ecosystems. However, defining "adequate" is difficult, especially when scientists have not even identified all marine species, and information on catches, abundances, and life histories of many target species, and most associated species, is sparse. Increasing calls from the public, stakeholders, and the scientific community to implement ecosystem-based stock assessment and management make it even more difficult to define "adequate," especially when "ecosystem-based management" is itself not well-defined. In attempting to describe the data collection and assessment needs for the latter, the authors took a pragmatic approach, rather than trying to estimate the resources required to develop a knowledge base about the fine-scale detailed distributions, abundances, and associations of all marine species. Thus, the specified resource requirements will not meet the expectations of some stakeholders. In addition, the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan is designed to be complementary to other related plans, and therefore does not duplicate the resource requirements detailed in those plans, except as otherwise noted.
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Reef fishes are conspicuous and essential components of coral reef ecosystems and economies of southern Florida and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI). Throughout Florida and the USVI, reef fish are under threat from a variety of anthropogenic and natural stressors including overfishing, habitat loss, and environmental changes. The South Florida/Caribbean Network (SFCN), a unit of the National Park Service (NPS), is charged with monitoring reef fishes, among other natural and cultural resources, within six parks in the South Florida - Caribbean region (Biscayne National Park, BISC; Buck Island Reef National Monument, BUIS; Dry Tortugas National Park, DRTO; Everglades National Park, EVER; Salt River Bay National Historic Park and Ecological Preserve, SARI; Virgin Islands National Park, VIIS). Monitoring data is intended for park managers who are and will continue to be asked to make decisions to balance environmental protection, fishery sustainability and park use by visitors. The range and complexity of the issues outlined above, and the need for NPS to invest in a strategy of monitoring, modeling, and management to ensure the sustainability of its precious assets, will require strategic investment in long-term, high-precision, multispecies reef fish data that increases inherent system knowledge and reduces uncertainty. The goal of this guide is to provide the framework for park managers and researchers to create or enhance a reef fish monitoring program within areas monitored by the SFCN. The framework is expected to be applicable to other areas as well, including the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument. The favored approach is characterized by an iterative process of data collection, dataset integration, sampling design analysis, and population and community assessment that evaluates resource risks associated with management policies. Using this model, a monitoring program can adapt its survey methods to increase accuracy and precision of survey estimates as new information becomes available, and adapt to the evolving needs and broadening responsibilities of park management.
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A study was conducted in June 2009 to assess the current status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks throughout subtidal estuarine waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) along the coast of Georgia. Samples were collected for multiple indicators of ecosystem condition, including water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids, fecal coliform bacteria and coliphages), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundance of benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). Use of a probabilistic sampling design facilitated the calculation of statistics to estimate the spatial extent of the Reserve classified according to various categories (i.e., Good, Fair, Poor) of ecological condition relative to established thresholds of these indicators, where available. Overall, the majority of subtidal habitat in the SINERR appeared to be healthy, with over half (56.7 %) of the Reserve area having water quality, sediment quality, and benthic biological condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. None of the stations sampled had one or more indicators in all three categories rated as poor/degraded. While these results are encouraging, it should be noted that one or more indicators were rated as poor/degraded in at least one of the three categories over 40% of the Reserve study area, represented by 12 of the 30 stations sampled. Although measures of fish tissue chemical contamination were not included in any of the above estimates, a number of trace metals, pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found at low yet detectable levels in some fish at stations where fish were caught. Levels of mercury and total PCBs in some fish specimens fell within EPA guideline values considered safe, given a consumption rate of no more than four fish meals per month. Moreover, PCB congener profiles in sediments and fish in the SINERR exhibit a relative abundance of higher-chlorinated homologs which are uniquely characteristic of Aroclor 1268. It has been well-documented that sediments and fish in the creeks and marshes near the LCP Chemicals Superfund site, near Brunswick, Georgia, also display this congener pattern associated with Aroclor 1268, a highly chlorinated mixture of PCBs used extensively at a chlor-alkali plant that was in operation at the LCP site from 1955-1994. This report provides results suggesting that the protected habitats lying within the boundaries of the SINERR may be experiencing the effects of a legacy of chemical contamination at a site over 40km away. These effects, as well as other potential stressors associated with increased development of nearby coastal areas, underscore the importance of establishing baseline ecological conditions that can be used to track potential changes in the future and to guide management and stewardship of the otherwise relatively unspoiled ecosystems of the SINERR.
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This baseline assessment of Jobos Bay and surrounding marine ecosystems consists of a two part series. The first report (Zitello et al., 2008) described the characteristics of the Bay and its watershed, including modeling work related to nutrients and sediment fluxes, based on existing data. The second portion of this assessment, presented in this document, presents the results of new field studies conducted to fill data gaps identified in previous studies, to provide a more complete characterization of Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystems. Specifically, the objective was to establish baseline values for the distribution of habitats, nutrients, contaminants, fi sh, and benthic communities. This baseline assessment is the first step in evaluating the effectiveness in changes in best management practices in the watershed. This baseline assessment is part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), which is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by agricultural producers participating in selected U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation programs. Partners in the CEAP Jobos Bay Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW) included USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Government of Puerto Rico. The project originated from an on-going collaboration between USDA and NOAA on the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. The Jobos Bay watershed was chosen because the predominant land use is agriculture, including agricultural lands adjacent to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR or Reserve), one of NOAA’s 26 National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERR). This report is organized into six chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to Jobos Bay, including the land use and hydrology of the watershed. Chapter 2 is focused on benthic mapping and provides the methods and results of newly created benthic maps for Jobos Bay and the surrounding coral reef ecosystem. Chapter 3 presents the results of new surveys of fish, marine debris, and reef communities of the system. Chapter 4 is focused on the distribution of chemical contaminants in sediments within the Bay and corals outside of the Bay. Chapter 5 focuses on quantifying nutrient and pesticide concentrations in the surface waters at the Reserve’s System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) sites. Chapter 6 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.
Resumo:
A baseline environmental characterization of the inner Kachemak Bay, Alaska was conducted using standardized National Status and Trends Bioeffects Program methods. Three sites near the village of Port Graham were also sampled for comparison. Concentrations of over 120 organic and metallic contaminants were analyzed. Ambient toxicity was assessed using two bioassays. A detailed benthic community condition assessment was performed. Habitat parameters (e.g. depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content) that influence species and contaminant distribution were also measured at each sampling site. The following is the synopsis of findings • Sediments were mostly mixed silt and sand with pockets of muddy zones. Organic compounds (PAHs, DDTs, PCBs, chlorinated pesticides) were detected throughout the bay but at relatively low concentrations. With some exceptions, metals concentrations were relatively low and probably reflect the input of glacial runoff. • Homer Harbor had elevated concentrations of metallic and organic contaminants. Concentrations of organic contaminants measured were five to ten times higher in the harbor sites than in the open bay sites. Tributyltin was elevated in Homer Harbor relative to the other areas. • There was no evidence of residual PAHs attributable to oil spills, outside of local input in the confines of the harbor. • The benthic community is very diverse. Specific community assemblages were distributed based on depth and water clarity. Species richness and diversity was lower in the eastern end of the bay in the vicinity of the Fox River input. Abundance was also generally lower in the eastern portion of the study area, and in the intertidal areas near Homer. The eastern portions of the bay are stressed by the sediment load from glacial meltwater. • Significant toxicity was virtually absent. • The benthic fauna at Port Graham contained a significant number of species not found in Kachemak Bay. • Selected metal concentrations were elevated at Port Graham relative to Kachemak Bay, probably due to local geology. Organic contaminants were elevated at a site south of the village.
Resumo:
The recently revised Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires that U.S. fishery management councils avoid overfishing by setting annual catch limits (ACLs) not exceeding recommendations of the councils’ scientific advisers. To meet that requirement, the scientific advisers will need to know the overfishing limit (OFL) estimated in each stock assessment, with OFL being the catch available from applying the limit fishing mortality rate to current or projected stock biomass. The advisers then will derive ‘‘acceptable biological catch’’ (ABC) from OFL by reducing OFL to allow for scientific uncertainty, and ABC becomes their recommendation to the council. We suggest methodology based on simple probability theory by which scientific advisers can compute ABC from OFL and the statistical distribution of OFL as estimated by a stock assessment. Our method includes approximations to the distribution of OFL if it is not known from the assessment; however, we find it preferable to have the assessment model estimate the distribution of OFL directly. Probability-based methods such as this one provide well-defined approaches to setting ABC and may be helpful to scientific advisers as they translate the new legal requirement into concrete advice.
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The primary objective of this project, “the Assessment of Existing Information on Atlantic Coastal Fish Habitat”, is to inform conservation planning for the Atlantic Coastal Fish Habitat Partnership (ACFHP). ACFHP is recognized as a Partnership by the National Fish Habitat Action Plan (NFHAP), whose overall mission is to protect, restore, and enhance the nation’s fish and aquatic communities through partnerships that foster fish habitat conservation. This project is a cooperative effort of NOAA/NOS Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment (CCMA) Biogeography Branch and ACFHP. The Assessment includes three components; 1. a representative bibliographic and assessment database, 2. a Geographical Information System (GIS) spatial framework, and 3. a summary document with description of methods, analyses of habitat assessment information, and recommendations for further work. The spatial bibliography was created by linking the bibliographic table developed in Microsoft Excel and exported to SQL Server, with the spatial framework developed in ArcGIS and exported to GoogleMaps. The bibliography is a comprehensive, searchable database of over 500 selected documents and data sources on Atlantic coastal fish species and habitats. Key information captured for each entry includes basic bibliographic data, spatial footprint (e.g. waterbody or watershed), species and habitats covered, and electronic availability. Information on habitat condition indicators, threats, and conservation recommendations are extracted from each entry and recorded in a separate linked table. The spatial framework is a functional digital map based on polygon layers of watersheds, estuarine and marine waterbodies derived from NOAA’s Coastal Assessment Framework, MMS/NOAA’s Multipurpose Marine Cadastre, and other sources, providing spatial reference for all of the documents cited in the bibliography. Together, the bibliography and assessment tables and their spatial framework provide a powerful tool to query and assess available information through a publicly available web interface. They were designed to support the development of priorities for ACFHP’s conservation efforts within a geographic area extending from Maine to Florida, and from coastal watersheds seaward to the edge of the continental shelf. The Atlantic Coastal Fish Habitat Partnership has made initial use of the Assessment of Existing Information. Though it has not yet applied the AEI in a systematic or structured manner, it expects to find further uses as the draft conservation strategic plan is refined, and as regional action plans are developed. It also provides a means to move beyond an “assessment of existing information” towards an “assessment of fish habitat”, and is being applied towards the National Fish Habitat Action Plan (NFHAP) 2010 Assessment. Beyond the scope of the current project, there may be application to broader initiatives such as Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs), Ecosystem Based Management (EBM), and Marine Spatial Planning (MSP).
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This document contains analytical methods that detail the procedures for determining major and trace element concentrations in bivalve tissue and sediment samples collected as part of the National Status and Trends Program (NS&T) for the years 2000-2006. Previously published NOAA Technical Memoranda NOS ORCA 71 and 130 (Lauenstein and Cantillo, 1993; Lauenstein and Cantillo, 1998) detail trace element analyses for the years 1984-1992 and 1993-1996, respectively, and include ancillary, histopathology, and contaminant (organic and trace element) analytical methods. The methods presented in this document for trace element analysis were utilized by the NS&T Mussel Watch and Bioeffects Projects. The Mussel Watch Project has been monitoring contaminants in bivalves and sediment for over 20 years, and is the longest active contaminant monitoring program operating in U.S. costal waters. Approximately 280 Mussel Watch sites are monitored on biennial and decadal timescales using bivalve tissue and sediment, respectively. The Bioeffects Project applies the sediment quality approach, which uses sediment contamination measurements, toxicity tests and benthic macroinfauna quantification to characterize pollution in selected estuaries and coastal embayments. Contaminant assessment is a core function of both projects. Although only one contract laboratory was used by the NS&T Program during the specified time period, several analytical methods and instruments were employed. The specific analytical method, including instrumentation and detection limit, is noted for each measurement taken and can be found at http://NSandT.noaa.gov. The major and trace elements measured by the NS&T Program include: Al, Si, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Sn, Sb, Ag, Cd, Hg, Tl and Pb.
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A meeting was convened on February 22-24, 2005 in Charleston, South Carolina to bring together researchers collaborating on the Bottlenose Dolphin Health and Risk Assessment (HERA) Project to review and discuss preliminary health-related findings from captured dolphins during 2003 and 2004 in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), FL and Charleston (CHS), SC. Over 30 researchers with diverse research expertise representing government, academic and marine institutions participated in the 2-1/2 day meeting. The Bottlenose Dolphin HERA Project is a comprehensive, integrated, multi-disciplinary research program designed to assess environmental and anthropogenic stressors, as well as the health and long-term viability of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). Standardized and comprehensive protocols are being used to evaluate dolphin health in the coastal ecosystems in the IRL and CHS. The Bottlenose Dolphin Health and Risk Assessment (HERA) Project was initiated in 2003 by Dr. Patricia Fair at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service/Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research and Dr. Gregory Bossart at the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution under NMFS Scientific Research Permit No. 998-1678-00 issued to Dr. Bossart. Towards this end, this study focuses on developing tools and techniques to better identify health threats to these dolphins, and to develop links to possible environmental stressors. Thus, the primary objective of the Dolphin HERA Project is to measure the overall health and as well as the potential health hazards for dolphin populations in the two sites by performing screening-level risk assessments using standardized methods. The screening-level assessment involves capture, sampling and release activities during which physical examinations are performed on dolphins and a suite of nonlethal morphologic and clinicopathologic parameters, to be used to develop indices of dolphin health, are collected. Thus far, standardized health assessments have been performed on 155 dolphins during capture-release studies conducted in Years 2003 and 2004 at the two sites. A major collaboration has been established involving numerous individuals and institutions, which provide the project with a broad assessment capability toward accomplishing the goals and objectives of this project.
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We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.
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The blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) plays an important economic and ecological role in estuaries and coastal habitats from the Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of North America, but demographic assessments are limited by length-based methods. We applied an alternative aging method using biochemical measures of metabolic byproducts (lipofuscins) sequestered in the neural tissue of eyestalks to examine population age structure. From Chesapeake Bay, subsamples of animals collected from the 1998–99 (n=769) and 1999–2000 (n=367) winter dredge surveys were collected and lipofuscin was measured. Modal analysis of the lipofuscin index provided separation into three modes, whereas carapace-width data collected among the same individuals showed two broad modes. Lipofuscin modal analysis indicated that most adults (carapace width >120 mm) were <2 years old. The results indicate that use of extractable lipofuscin can provide a more accurate and better resolved estimation of demographic structure of blue crab populations in the field than size alone.