Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.

Factors influencing the timing and frequency of spawning and fecundity of the goldlined seabream (Rhabdosargus sarba) (Sparidae) in the lower reaches of an estuary

We have studied the reproductive biology of the goldlined seabream (Rhabdosargus sarba) in the lower Swan River Estuary in Western Australia, focusing particularly on elucidating the factors influencing the duration, timing, and frequency of spawning and on determining potential annual fecundity. Our results demonstrate that 1) Rhabdosargus sarba has indeterminate fecundity, 2) oocyte hydration commences soon after dusk (ca. 18:30 h) and is complete by ca. 01:30−04:30 h and 3) fish with ovaries containing migratory nucleus oocytes, hydrated oocytes, or postovulatory follicles were caught between July and November. However, in July and August, their prevalence was low, whereas that of fish with ovaries containing substantial numbers of atretic yolk granule oocytes was high. Thus, spawning activity did not start to peak until September (early spring), when salinities were rising markedly from their winter minima. The prevalence of spawning was positively correlated with tidal height and was greatest on days when the tide changed from flood to ebb at ca. 06:00 h, i.e., just after spawning had ceased. Because our estimate of the average daily prevalence of spawning by females during the spawning season (July to November) was 36.5%, individual females were estimated to spawn, on average, at intervals of about 2.7 days and thus about 45 times during that period. Therefore, because female R. sarba with total lengths of 180, 220, and 260 mm were estimated to have batch fecundities of about 4500, 7700, and 12,400 eggs, respectively, they had potential annual fecundities of about 204,300, 346,100 and 557,500 eggs, respectively. Because spawning occurs just prior to strong ebb tides, the eggs of R. sarba are likely to be transported out of the estuary into coastal waters where salinities remain at ca. 35‰. Such downstream transport would account for the fact that, although R. sarba exhibits substantial spawning activity in the lower Swan River Estuary, few of its early juveniles are recruited into the nearshore shallow waters of this estuary.

Reproductive seasonality, fecundity, and spawning frequency of tautog (Tautoga onitis) in the lower Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters of Virginia

The tautog, Tautoga onitis (Linnaeus), ranges from Nova Scotia to South Carolina and has become a popular target for recreational and commercial fisheries. Although tautog are a multiple spawning species, reproductive potential, measured as annual fecundity, has not been estimated previously with methods (batch fecundity, spawning frequency) necessary for a species with indeterminate annual fecundity. A total of 960 tautog were collected from the mouth of the Rappahannock River in the lower Chesapeake Bay to 45 km offshore of Virginia’s coastline to investigate tautog reproductive biology in the southern portion of the species range. Tautog did not exhibit a 1:1 sex ratio; 56% were females. Male tautog reached 50% maturity at 218 mm TL, females at 224 mm TL. Tautog spawned from 7 April 1995 to 15 June 1995, at locations from the York River to 45 km offshore. Batch fecundity estimates ranged from 2800 to 181,200 eggs per spawning for female tautog age 3–9, total length 259– 516 mm. Mean batch fecundity ±SEM for female tautog ages 4–6 was 54,243 ±2472 eggs and 106,256 ±3837 eggs for females ages 7–9. Spawning frequency was estimated at 1.2 days, resulting in 58 spawning days per female in 1995. Estimates of potential annual fecundity for tautog ages 3–9 ranged from 160,000 to 10,510,000 eggs.

Swimming depth, ambient water temperature preference, and feeding frequency of young Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) determined with archival tags

We investigated the migration and behavior of young Pacific Bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) using archival tags. The archival tag measures environmental variables, records them in its memory, and estimates daily geographical locations based on measured light levels. Of 166 archival tags implanted in Pacific bluefin tuna that were released at the northeastern end of the East China Sea from 1995 to 1997, 30 tags were recovered, including one from a fish that migrated across the Pacific. This article describes swimming depth, ambient water temperature, and feeding frequency of young Pacific bluefin tuna based on retrieved data. Tag performance, effect of the tag on the fish, and horizontal movements of the species are described in another paper. Young Pacific bluefin tuna swim mainly in the mixed layer, usually near the sea surface, and swim in deeper water in daytime than at nighttime. They also exhibit a pattern of depth changes, corresponding to sunrise and sunset, apparently to avoid a specific low light level. The archival tags recorded temperature changes in viscera that appear to be caused by feeding, and those changes indicate that young Pacific bluefin tuna commonly feed at dawn and in the daytime, but rarely at dusk or at night. Water temperature restricts their distribution, as indicated by changes in their vertical distribution with the seasonal change in depth of the thermocline and by the fact that their horizontal distribution is in most cases confined to water in the temperature range of 14−20°C.

Assessing the precision of frequency distributions estimated from trawl-survey samples

In trawl surveys a cluster of fish are caught at each station, and fish caught together tend to have more similar characteristics, such as length, age, stomach contents etc., than those in the entire population. When this is the case, the effective sample size for estimates of the frequency distribution of a population characteristic can, therefore, be much smaller than the number of fish sampled during a survey. As examples, it is shown that the effective sample size for estimates of length-frequency distributions generated by trawl surveys conducted in the Barents Sea, off Namibia, and off South Africa is on average approximately one fish per tow. Thus many more fish than necessary are measured at each station (location). One way to increase the effective sample size for these surveys and, hence, increase the precision of the length-frequency estimates, is to reduce tow duration and use the time saved to collect samples at more stations.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Inferences from tree rings on low frequency variations in runoff in the interior western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Low frequency variations in runoff, AD 1700-1964, in the interior western United States are inferred from smoothed tree-ring series averaged over north, central, and south regions. ... Relative locations of peaks and troughs in streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and tree-ring series suggest that annual precipitation and warm season evapotranspiration variations may both be important to low frequency fluctuations in tree growth and in streamflow.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

Interdecadal shifting of the North Pacific jet stream - El Niño events [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Researchers have shown a step-like increase in worldwide sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the mid-1970s. Wintertime (December through March) polar-front jet stream positions in the North Pacific will be presented for six moderate-to-very-strong El Niño events - three before the winter of 1975-76 (1965-66, 1968-69, 1972-73) and three after (1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-92).