Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Breeding populations of seabirds in California, 1989-1991. Volume I - population estimates

In 1989-1991, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service surveyed breeding populations of seabirds on the entire California coast. This study was sponsored by the Minerals Management Service in relation to outer continental shelf oil and gas leasing. At 483 nesting sites (excluding terns and skimmers in southern California), we estimated 643,307 breeding birds of 21 seabird species including: 410 Fork-tailed Storm-petrel (Oceanodroma furcata); 12,551 Leach's Storm-petrel (O. leucorhoa); 7,209 Ashy Storm-petrel (O. homochroa); 274 Black Storm-petrel (O. melania); 11,916 Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis); 10,037 Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus); 83,394 Brandt's Cormorant (P. penicillatus); 14,345 Pelagic Cormorant (P. pelagicus); 888 Black Oystercatcher (Haemotopus bachmani); 4,764 California Gull (Larus californicus); 61,760 Western Gull (L. occidentalis); 2,838 Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia) (excluding southern California); 3,550 Forster's Tern (S. forsteri) (excluding southern California); 272 Least Tern (S. albifrons) (excluding southern California); 351,336 Common Murre (Uria aalge); 15,470 Pigeon Guillemot (Cepphus columba); 1,821 Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus); 1,760 Xantus' Murrelet (Endomychura hypoleuca); 56,562 Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus); 1,769 Rhinoceros Auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata); and 276 Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata). The inland, historical or hybrid breeding status of American White Pelican (P. erythrorynchus), American Oystercatcher (H. palliatus), Heermann's Gull (L. heermanni), Ring-billed Gull (L. delawarensis), Glaucous-winged Gull (L. glaucescens) and Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) are discussed. Estimates for Gull-billed Tern (S. nilotica), Royal Tern (S. maxima), Elegant Tern (S. elegans) and Black Skimmer (Rhynchops niger) will be included in the final draft of this report. Overall numbers were slightly lower than reported in 1975-1980 surveys (summarized in Sowls et al. 1980. Catalog of California seabird colonies. U.S. Dept. Int., Fish Wildl. Serv., Biol. Serv. Prog., FWS/OBS 37/80). Recent declines were found or suspected for Fork-tailed Storm-petrel, Leach's Storm-petrel, White Pelican, Black Tern, Caspian Tern, Least Tern, Common Murre and Marbled Murrelet. Recent increases were found or suspected for Brown Pelican, Double-crested cormorant, California Gull, Western Gull, Forster's Tern and Rhinoceros Auklet. Similar numbers were found for other species or trends could not be determined without additional surveys, studies and/or more in-depth comparisons with previous surveys. The status of terns and skimmers in southern California has not yet been finalized.