Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Distribution patterns of fish eggs in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf Ecosystem, 1977-1987

This atlas presents information on fish eggs and temperature data collected from broadscale ichthyoplankton surveys conducted off the U.S. northeast coast from ]977 to 1987. Distribution and abundance information is provided for 33 taxa in the form of graphs and contoured egg-density maps by month and survey. Comments are included on interannual and interseasonal trends in spawning intensity. Data on 14 additional but less numerous taxa are provided in tabular form. (PDF file contains 316 pages.)

Seasonal, horizontal, and vertical distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a in the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem

The broad scale features in the horizontal, vertical, and seasonal distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a on the northeast U.S. continental shelf are described based on 57,088 measurements made during 78 oceanographic surveys from 1977 through 1988. Highest mean water column chlorophyll concentration (Chlw,) is usually observed in nearshore areas adjacent to the mouths of the estuaries in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), over the shallow water on Georges Bank, and a small area sampled along the southeast edge of Nantucket Shoals. Lowest Chlw «0.125 ug l-1) is usually restricted to the most seaward stations sampled along the shelf-break and the central deep waters in the Gulf of Maine. There is at least a twofold seasonal variation in phytoplankton biomass in all areas, with highest phytoplankton concentrations (m3) and highest integrated standing stocks (m2) occurring during the winter-spring (WS) bloom, and the lowest during summer, when vertical density stratification is maximal. In most regions, a secondary phytoplankton biomass pulse is evident during convective destratification in fall, usually in October. Fall bloom in some areas of Georges Bank approaches the magnitude of the WS-bloom, but Georges Bank and Middle Atlantic Bight fall blooms are clearly subordinate to WS-blooms. Measurements of chlorophyll in two size-fractions of the phytoplankton, netplankton (>20 um) and nanoplankton «20 um), revealed that the smaller nanoplankton are responsible for most of the phytoplankton biomass on the northeast U.S. shelf. Netplankton tend to be more abundant in nearshore areas of the MAB and shallow water on Georges Bank, where chlorophyll a is usually high; nanoplankton dominate deeper water at the shelf-break and deep water in the Gulf of Maine, where Chlw is usually low. As a general rule, the percent of phytoplankton in the netplankton size-fraction increases with increasing depth below surface and decreases proceeding offshore. There are distinct seasonal and regional patterns in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll a and percent netplankton, as revealed in composite vertical profiles of chlorophyll a constructed for 11 layers of the water column. Subsurface chlorophyll a maxima are ubiquitous during summer in stratified water. Chlorophyll a in the subsurface maximum layer is generally 2-8 times the concentration in the overlying and underlying water and approaches 50 to 75% of the levels observed in surface water during WS-bloom. The distribution of the ratio of the subsurface maximum chlorophyll a to surface chlorophyll a (SSR) during summer parallels the shelfwide pattern for stability, indexed as the difference in density (sigma-t) between 40 m and surface (stability 40. The weakest stability and lowest SSR's are found in shallow tidally-mixed water on Georges Bank; the greatest stability and highest SSR's (8-12:1) are along the mid and outer MAB shelf, over the winter residual water known as the "cold band." On Georges Bank, the distribution of SSR and the stability40 are roughly congruent with the pattern for maximum surface tidal current velocity, with values above 50 cms-1 defining SSR's less than 2:1 and the well-mixed area. Physical factors (bathymetry, vertical mixing by strong tidal currents, and seasonal and regional differences in the intensity and duration of vertical stratification) appear to explain much of the variability in phytoplankton chlorophyll a throughout this ecosystem. (PDF file contains 126 pages.)

Southeastern U.S. Deepwater Reef Fish Assemblages, Habitat Characteristics, Catches, and Life History Summaries

There are 19 economically important reef fish species in the deepwater (l00-300 m) fishery of the southeastern United States. Five species make up the majority (over 97% by weight) of the catch. In descending order of total landings for 1995, they are: tilefish, Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps, snowy grouper, Epinephelus niveatus, blueline tilefish, Caulolatilus microps, warsaw grouper, Epinephelus nigritus, and yellowedge grouper, E. flavolimbatus. Life history summaries and estimates of catches from 1972 through 1995 for 14 species are described. (PDF file contains 45 pages.)

Control of Disease in Aquaculture: Proceedings of the Nineteenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture, Ise, Mie Prefecture, Japan, 29-30 October 1990, Satellite Symposium: 2 November

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964, In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include increased communication and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 150 pages.)

Marine Ranching: Proceedings of the Eighteenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture Port Ludlow, Washington, 18-19 September 1989

Female reproduction in penaeid shrimp is carefully regulated by several different endocrine factors. Their precise modes of action have not yet been fully elucidated. Three endocrine factors, each representing a different chemical class of hormones, have been investigated in the penaeid shrimp Sicyonia ingentis in our laboratory: ecdysteroids, vitellogenesis-inhibiting hormone (VIH) , and methyl farnesoate (MF). Ecdysteroids (the steroid molting hormones of arthropods; predominantly 20-hydroxyecdysone), are initially present in low levels (<10 ng/mg) in shrimp embryos. As development of the embryos nears time of hatch, the ecdysteroid levels increase to approximately 150 ng/ mg, indicating that they may be of embryonic origin and involved in embryonic development. An assay was developed for shrimp VIH, which presumably is a protein. Delay of onset of the next reproductive cycle was observed following injection of sinus gland extracts into shrimp that had previously had their eyestalks removed. A photoaffinity analog was synthesized for the putative shrimp reproductive hormone MF-a terpenoid. This analog, farnesyl diazomethyl ketone (FDK) , was used to demonstrate the presence of specific binding proteins for MF in shrimp hemolymph. (PDF file contains 136 pages.)

Incidental Catch of Marine Mammals by Foreign and Joint Venture Trawl Vessels in the U.S. EEZ of the North Pacific, 1973-88

During 1973-88, 3,661 marine mammals of 17 species were reported as incidental catch by U.S. fishery observers aboard foreign and joint venture trawl vessels in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone in the North Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea. Northern sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) accounted for 90% of the reported incidental mortality in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea. Nearly half of these sea lions were taken in trawl nets in the Shelikof Strait, Alaska, joint venture fishery during 1982-84. However, high incidental mortality rates (>25 sea lions per 10,000 metric tons of groundfish catch) also occurred in the foreign fisheries near Kodiak Island and in the Aleutian Islands area in earlier years. Estimated annual mortality of incidentally caught northern sea lions in Alaska declined from 1,000 to 2,000 animals per year during the early 1970s and 1982 to fewer than 100 animals in 1988. In the Bering Sea most sea lions incidentally caught were males, while in the Gulf of Alaska females were more frequently caught. Females may also have been dominant in the incidental catch of sea lions in the Aleutian Islands area, but age and sex composition data are limited. Incidental mortality of adult female sea lions by foreign trawl fisheries in these areas could have partially contributed to the reported declines in northern sea lion populations in Alaska during the 1970s, but it cannot alone account for the present decline in population size. (PDF file contains 64 pages.)

Marine Ranching: Proceedings of the Seventeenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture Ise, Mie Prefecture, Japan October 16, 17, and 18, 1988, Satellite Symposium: October 20

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include increased communication and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 186 pages.)

Genetics in Aquaculture: Proceedings of the Sixteenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture Charleston, South Carolina October 20 and 21, 1987

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include: Increased communication and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 88 pages.)

Marine farming and enhancement: Proceedings of the Fifteenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture, Kyoto, Japan October 22-23, 1986

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include: Increased communication and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 134 pages.)

New and innovative advances in biology/engineering with potential for use in aquaculture: Proceedings of the Fourteenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, October 16-17, 1985

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include: Increased communication and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 76 pages.)

Environmental quality and aquaculture systems: Proceedings of the Thirteenth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture, Mie, Japan, October 24-25, 1984

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air population, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include: Increased communication and cooperation among tecbnical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a· policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 56 pages.)

Proximate and fatty acid composition of 40 southeastern U.S. finfish species

This report describes the proximate compositions (protein, moisture, fat, and ash) and major fatty acid profiles for raw and cooked samples of 40 southeastern finfish species. All samples (fillets) were cooked by a standard procedure in laminated plastic bags to an internal temperature of 70'C (lS8'F). Both summarized compositional data, with means and ranges for each species, and individual sample data including harvest dates and average lengths and weights are presented. When compared with raw samples, cooked samples exhibited an increase in protein content with an accompanying decrease in moisture content. Fat content either remained approximately the same or increased due to moisture loss during cooking. Our results are discussed in reference to compositional data previously published by others on some of the same species. Although additional data are needed to adequately describe the seasonal and geographic variations in the chemical compositions of many of these fish species, the results presented here should be useful to nutritionists, seafood marketers, and consumers.(PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Ecology of east Florida sea turtles: Proceedings of the Cape Canaveral, Florida Sea Turtle Workshop Miami, Florida February 26-27, 1985

The Cape Canaveral, Florida, marine ecosystem is unique. There are complex current and temperature regimes that form a faunal transition zone between Atlantic tropical and subtropical waters. This zone is rich faunistically and supports large commercial fISheries for fish, scallops, and shrimp. Canaveral is also unique because it has large numbers of sea turtles year-round, this turtle aggregation exhibiting patterned seasonal changes in numbers, size frequency, and sex ratio. Additionally, a significant portion of this turtle aggregation hibernates in the Canaveral ship channel, a phenomenon rare in marine turtle populations. The Cape Canaveral area has the largest year-round concentration of sea turtles in the United States. However, the ship channel is periodically dredged by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in order to keep Port Canaveral open to U.S. Navy vessels, and preliminary surveys showed that many sea turtles were incidentally killed during dredging operations. In order for the Corps of Engineers to fulfill its defense dredging responsibilities, and comply with the Endangered Species Act of 1973, an interagency Sea Turtle Task Force was formed to investigate methods of reducing turtle mortalities. This Task Force promptly implemented a sea turtle research plan to determine seasonal abundance, movement patterns, sex ratios, size frequencies, and other biological parameters necessary to help mitigate dredging conflicts in the channel. The Cape Canaveral Sea Turtle Workshop is a cooperative effort to comprehensively present research results of these important studies. I gratefully acknowledge the support of everyone involved in this Workshop, particularly the anonymous team of referees who painstakingly reviewed the manuscripts. The cover illustration was drawn by Jack C. Javech. (PDF file contains 86 pages.)

Reproduction, maturation, and seed production of cultured species: Proceedings of the Twelfth U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 25-29, 1983

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was begun during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program include desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include: Increased communication and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy-coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 79 pages.)