A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

Deepwater Horizon oil spill: assessment of potential impacts on the deep soft-bottom benthos; interim data summary report

A study was initiated in May 2011, under the direction of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) Deepwater Benthic Communities Technical Working Group (NRDA Deep Benthic TWG), to assess potential impacts of the DWH oil spill on sediments and resident benthic fauna in deepwater (> 200 meters) areas of the Gulf. Key objectives of the study were to complete the analysis of samples from 65 priority stations sampled in September-October 2010 on two DWH Response cruises (Gyre and Ocean Veritas) and from 38 long-term monitoring sites (including a subset of 35 of the original 65) sampled on a follow-up NRDA cruise in May-June 2011. The present progress report provides a brief summary of results from the initial processing of samples from fall 2010 priority sites (plus three additional historical sites). Data on key macrofaunal, meiofaunal, and abiotic environmental variables are presented for each of these samples and additional maps are included to depict spatial patterns in these variables throughout the study region. The near-field zone within about 3 km of the wellhead, where many of the stations showed evidence of impaired benthic condition (e.g. low taxa richness, high nematode/harpacticoid-copepod ratios), also is an area that contained some of the highest concentrations of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH), total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (total PAHs), and barium in sediments (as possible indicators of DWH discharges). There were similar co-occurrences at other sites outside this zone, especially to the southwest of the wellhead out to about 15 km. However, there also were exceptions to this pattern, for example at several farther-field sites in deeper-slope and canyon locations where there was low benthic species richness but no evidence of exposure to DWH discharges. Such cases are consistent with historical patterns of benthic distributions in relation to natural controlling factors such as depth, position within canyons, and availability of organic matter derived from surface-water primary production.

Deep-sea benthic footprint of the Deepwater Horizon blowout

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) accident in the northern Gulf of Mexico occurred on April 20, 2010 at a water depth of 1525 meters, and a deep-sea plume was detected within one month. Oil contacted and persisted in parts of the bottom of the deep-sea in the Gulf of Mexico. As part of the response to the accident, monitoring cruises were deployed in fall 2010 to measure potential impacts on the two main soft-bottom benthic invertebrate groups: macrofauna and meiofauna. Sediment was collected using a multicorer so that samples for chemical, physical and biological analyses could be taken simultaneously and analyzed using multivariate methods. The footprint of the oil spill was identified by creating a new variable with principal components analysis where the first factor was indicative of the oil spill impacts and this new variable mapped in a geographic information system to identify the area of the oil spill footprint. The most severe relative reduction of faunal abundance and diversity extended to 3 km from the wellhead in all directions covering an area about 24 km2. Moderate impacts were observed up to 17 km towards the southwest and 8.5 km towards the northeast of the wellhead, covering an area 148 km2. Benthic effects were correlated to total petroleum hydrocarbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and barium concentrations, and distance to the wellhead; but not distance to hydrocarbon seeps. Thus, benthic effects are more likely due to the oil spill, and not natural hydrocarbon seepage. Recovery rates in the deep sea are likely to be slow, on the order of decades or longer.

Fish movement patterns in Virgin Islands National Park, Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument and adjacent waters

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS)-Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s (CCMA) Biogeography Branch, National Park Service (NPS), US Geological Survey, and the University of Hawaii used acoustic telemetry to quantify spatial patterns and habitat affinities of reef fishes around the island of St. John, US Virgin Islands. The objective of the study was to define the movements of reef fishes among habitats within and between the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICRNM), the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS), and Territorial waters surrounding St. John. In order to better understand species’ habitat utilization patterns among management regimes, we deployed an array of hydroacoustic receivers and acoustically tagged reef fishes. Thirty six receivers were deployed in shallow near-shore bays and across the shelf to depths of approximately 30 m. One hundred eighty four individual fishes were tagged representing 19 species from 10 different families with VEMCO V9-2L-R64K transmitters. The array provides fish movement information at fine (e.g., day-night and 100s meters within a bay) to broad spatial and temporal scales (multiple years and 1000s meters across the shelf). The long term multi-year tracking project provides direct evidence of connectivity across habitat types in the seascape and among management units. An important finding for management was that a number of individuals moved among management units (VICRNM, VINP, Territorial waters) and several snapper moved from near-shore protected areas to offshore shelf-edge spawning aggregations. However, most individuals spent the majority of their time with VIIS and VICRNM, with only a few wide-ranging species moving outside the management units. Five species of snappers (Lutjanidae) accounted for 31% of all individuals tagged, followed by three species of grunts (Haemulidae) accounting for an additional 23% of the total. No other family had more than a single species represented in the study. Bluestripe grunt (Haemulon sciurus) comprised 22% of all individuals tagged, followed by lane snappers (Lutjanus synagris) at 21%, bar jack (Carangoides ruber) at 11%, and saucereye porgy (Calamus calamus) at 10%. The largest individual tagged was a 70 cm TL nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum), followed by a 65 cm mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis), a 47 cm bar jack, and a 41 cm dog snapper (Lutjanus jocu). The smallest individuals tagged were a 19 cm blue tang (Acanthurus coeruleus) and a 19.2 cm doctorfish (Acanthurus chirurgus). Of the 40 bluestriped grunt acoustically tagged, 73% were detected on the receiver array. The average days at large (DAL) was 249 (just over 8 months), with one individual detected for 930 days (over two and a half years). Lane snapper were the next most abundant species tagged (N = 38) with 89% detected on the array. The average days at large (DAL) was 221 with one individual detected for 351 days. Seventy-one percent of the bar jacks (N = 21) were detected on the array with the average DALs at 47 days. All of the mutton snapper (N = 12) were detected on the array with an average DAL of 273 and the longest at 784. The average maximum distance travelled (MDT) was ca. 2 km with large variations among species. Grunts, snappers, jacks, and porgies showed the greatest movements. Among all individuals across species, there was a positive and significant correlation between size of individuals and MDT and between DAL and MDT.

Benthic habitats of Buck Island Reef National Monument

NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Branch has mapped and characterized large portions of the coral reef ecosystems inside the U.S. coastal and territorial waters, including the U.S. Caribbean. The complementary protocols used in these efforts have enabled scientists and managers to quantitatively compare different marine ecosystems in tropical U.S. waters. The Biogeography Branch used these same general protocols to generate three seamless habitat maps of the Bank/Shelf (i.e., from 0 ≤50 meters) and the Bank/Shelf Escarpment (i.e., from 50 ≤1,000 meters and from 1,000 ≤ 1,830 meters) inside Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM). While this mapping effort marks the fourth time that the shallow-water habitats of BIRNM have been mapped, it is the first time habitats deeper than 30 meters (m) have been characterized. Consequently, this habitat map provides information on the distribution of mesophotic and deep-water coral reef ecosystems and serves as a spatial baseline for monitoring change in the Monument. A benthic habitat map was developed for approximately 74.3 square kilometers or 98% of the BIRNM using a combination of semi-automated and manual classification methods. The remaining 2% was not mapped due to lack of imagery in the western part of the Monument at depths ranging from 1,000 to 1,400 meters. Habitats were interpreted from orthophotographs, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) imagery and four different types of MBES (Multibeam Echosounder) imagery. Three minimum mapping units (MMUs) (100, 1,000 and 5,000 square meters) were used because of the wide range of depths present in the Monument. The majority of the area that was characterized was deeper than 30 m on the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. This escarpment area was dominated by uncolonized sand which transitioned to mud as depth increased. Bedrock was exposed in some areas of the escarpment, where steep slopes prevented sediment deposition. Mesophotic corals were seen in the underwater video, but were too sparsely distributed to be reliably mapped from the source imagery. Habitats on the Bank/Shelf were much more variable than those seen on the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. The majority of this shelf area was comprised of coral reef and hardbottom habitat dominated by various forms of turf, fleshy, coralline or filamentous algae. Even though algae was the dominant biological cover type, nearly a quarter (24.3%) of the Monument’s Bank/Shelf benthos hosted a cover of 10%-<50% live coral. In total, 198 unique combinations of habitat classes describing the geography, geology and biology of the sea-floor were identified from the three types of imagery listed above. No thematic accuracy assessment was conducted for areas deeper than about 50 meters, most of which was located in the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. The thematic accuracy of classes in waters shallower than approximately 50 meters ranged from 81.4% to 94.4%. These thematic accuracies are similar to those reported for other NOAA benthic habitat mapping efforts in St. John (>80%), the Main Eight Hawaiian Islands (>84.0%) and the Republic of Palau (>80.0%). These digital maps products can be used with confidence by scientists and resource managers for a multitude of different applications, including structuring monitoring programs, supporting management decisions, and establishing and managing marine conservation areas. The final deliverables for this project, including the benthic habitat maps, source imagery and in situ field data, are available to the public on a NOAA Biogeography Branch website (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coralreef/stcroix.aspx) and through an interactive, web-based map application (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/explorer/biomapper/biomapper.html?id=BUIS). This report documents the process and methods used to create the shallow to deep-water benthic habitat maps for BIRNM. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to BIRNM, including its history, marine life and ongoing research activities. Chapter 2 describes the benthic habitat classification scheme used to partition the different habitats into ecologically relevant groups. Chapter 3 explains the steps required to create a benthic habitat map using a combination of semi-automated and visual classification techniques. Chapter 4 details the steps used in the accuracy assessment and reports on the thematic accuracy of the final shallow-water map. Chapter 5 summarizes the type and abundance of each habitat class found inside BIRNM, how these habitats compare to past habitat maps and outlines how these new habitat maps may be used to inform future management activities.

Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands coral reef ecosystems mapping report

Digital maps of the coral reef ecosystem (<~30m deep) of Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, were created through visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery. Digital Globe’s Quickbird II satellite images were acquired between 2004 and 2006 and georeferenced to within 1.6 m of their true positions. Reef ecosystem features were digitized directly into a GIS at a display scale of 1:4000 using a minimum feature size of 1000 square meters. Benthic features were categorized according to a classification scheme with attributes including zone (location, such as lagoon or forereef, etc.), structure (bottom type, such as sand or patch reef, etc.) and percent hard bottom. Ground validation of habitat features was conducted at 311 sites in 2009. Resulting maps consisted of 1829 features covering 366 square kilometers. Results demonstrate that reef zones occurred in a typical progression of narrow bands from offshore, though forereef, reef flat, shoreline, land, backreef, and lagoon habitats. Lagoon was the largest zone mapped and covered nearly 80% of the atoll, although much of it was too deep to have structures identified from the satellite imagery. Dominant habitat structures by area were pavement and aggregate reef, which covered 29% and 18% of the mapped structures, respectively. Based on the number of features, individual and aggregated patch reefs comprised over 40% of the features mapped. Products include GIS based maps, field videos and pictures, satellite imagery, PDF atlas, and this summary report. Maps and associated data can be used to support science and management activities on Majuro reef ecosystems including inventory, monitoring, conservation, and sustainable development applications.

A surveillance strategy for invasive species of concern in deepwater habitats of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

This report describes a surveillance strategy to detect deepwater invasive species in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. A need for this strategy was identified in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument Management Plan and the Monument’s Draft Natural Resources Science Plan. This strategy focuses on detecting two species of concern, the octocoral Carijoa riisei and the red alga Hypnea musciformis. Most research on invasive species in the Hawaiian archipelago has focused on shallow water habitats within the limits of conventional SCUBA (0-30 m). Deeper habitats such as mesophotic reefs are much more difficult to access and consequently little is known about the distribution of deepwater invasive species or their impacts. Recent deepwater (>30 m) sightings of H. musciformis and C. riisei, in and near NWHI, respectively, have prompted a call for further research and surveillance of invasive species in deepwater habitats. This report compiles the most up to date information about these two species of concern in deepwater habitats. A literature search and conversations with subject matter experts was used to identify their current distribution, preferred habitat types, optimal detection methods and ways to efficiently sample the vast extent of NWHI. The proposed sampling strategy prioritizes survey effort where C. riisei and H. musciformis are most likely to be found. At coarse spatial scales (tens to hundreds of kilometers), opportunistic observations and distance from the Main Hawaiian Islands, a principal propagule source, are used to identify high-risk islands and banks. At fine spatial scales (meters to tens of kilometers) a habitat suitability model was developed to identify high-risk habitats. The habitat suitability model focused on habitat preferences of C. riisei, since the species is well studied and adequate data exists to map habitats. There was insufficient information to identify suitable habitat for H. muscifomis. Habitat preferences for the algae are poorly understood and there is a lack of data at relevant spatial scales to map those preferences which are known. The principal habitats identified by the habitat suitability model were ledges and the edges of rugose coral reefs, where the shade loving octocoral would likely be found. Habitat suitability maps were developed for seven atolls and banks to aid in survey site selection. The protocol relied on technical divers to conduct visual surveys of benthic habitats. It was developed to increase the efficiency of surveys, maximize the probability of detection, identify important information relevant to future surveys and standardize results. The strategy, model and protocol were tested during a field mission in 2009 at several atolls and islands in NWHI. The field mission did not detect any invasive species among deepwater habitats and much was learned to improve future surveys. Data gaps and improvements are discussed.

Assessment and monitoring of marine debris in Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) is located 32.4 km offshore of Sapelo Island, Georgia. The ecological importance of this area is related to the transition between tropical and temperate waters, and the existence of a topographically complex system of ledges. Due to its central location, GRNMS can be used as a focal site to study the accumulation and impacts of marine debris on the Atlantic continental shelf offshore of the Southeast United States. Previously, researchers characterized marine debris in GRNMS and reported that incidence of the debris at the limited densely colonized ledge sites was significantly greater than at sand or sparsely colonized live bottom, and is further influenced by the level of boating activity and physiographic characteristics (e.g., ledge height). Information gleaned from the initial marine debris characterization was used to devise a strategy for prioritizing cleanup and monitoring efforts. However, a significant gap in knowledge was the rate of debris accumulation. The primary objective of this study was to select, mark, and perform initial marine debris surveys at permanent monitoring sites within GRNMS to quantify long-term trends in types, abundance, impacts, and accumulation rates of debris. Ledge sites were selected to compare types, abundance, and accumulation rates of marine debris between a) areas of high and low use and b) short and tall ledges. Nine permanent monitoring sites were marked and initially surveyed in 2007/2008. Surveys were conducted within a 50 x 4 m transect for a total survey area of 200 square meters. All debris was removed and detailed information was taken on the types of debris, quantity, and associations with benthic fauna. Information on associations with benthic fauna included degree of entanglement, type of organism with which it is entangled or resting on, degree of fouling, and visible impacts such as tissue abrasions. Sites were re-surveyed approximately one year later to quantify new accumulation. During the initial survey, a total of ten debris items, totaling 16.3 kg in weight, were removed from two monitoring stations, both “tall” sites within the area of high boat use. Year-one accumulation totaled five items and approximately 7 kg in weight. Similar to the initial survey, all debris was found at sites in the area of high boat use. However, in contrast to the initial survey, two of these items were found on medium-height ledges. Removed items included fishing line, leaders, rope, plastic, and fabric. Although items were often encrusted in benthic biota or entangled on the ledge, impacts such as abrasions or other injuries were not observed. During the 2009 monitoring efforts, volunteer divers were trained to conduct the survey. Monitoring protocols were documented for GRNMS staff and included as an appendix of this report to enable long-term monitoring of sites. Additionally, national reconnaissance data (e.g. satellite, radar, aerial surveys) and other information on known fishing locations were examined for patterns of resource use and correlations with debris occurrence patterns. A previous model predicting the density of marine debris based on ledge features and boat use was refined and the results were used to generate a map of predicted debris density for all ledges.

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands

Since 2001, biannual fish and habitat monitoring has been conducted for the shallow (> 30 m), colonized pavement and gorgonian dominated Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM) St. Croix, USVI and adjacent waters. during October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within the ∼50 square-kilometer study area that was preceded by 10 wks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9–30.1 °C). Random transects (100 square meters) were conducted on linear reefs, patch reefs, bedrock, pavement, and scattered coral/rock habitats during October 2005, and April and October 2006, and species specific bleaching patterns were documented. During October 2005 approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching. Coral cover for Montastraea annularis and species of the genus Agaricia were the most affected, while other species exhibited variability in their susceptibility to bleaching. Bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5–28 m), was negatively correlated with depth, and positively correlated with habitat complexity. Bleaching was less prevalent at all depths and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006. Four species and one genus did not exhibit signs of bleaching throughout the study period (Dendrogyra cylindrus, Eusmilia fastigata, Mussa angulosa, Mycetophyllia aliciae, Scolymia spp.).

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands [poster]

Limited information currently exists on the recovery periods of bleached corals as well as the spatial extent, causative factors, and the overall impact of bleaching on coral reef ecosystems. During October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within Buck Island Reef National Monument (BUIS) St. Croix, USVI. The bleaching event was preceded by 10 weeks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9-30.1°C). Random transects (100 square meters) over hard bottom habitats (N=94) revealed that approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching; species-specific bleaching patterns were variable throughout the study area. Coral cover for Montastraea annularisand species of the genus Agariciawere the most affected, while other species exhibited variability to bleaching. Although a weak but significant negative relationship (r2=0.10, P=0.0220) was observed, bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5-28 m). Bleaching was spatially autocorrelated (P=0.001) and hot-spot analysis identified a cluster of high bleaching stations northeast of Buck Island. Bleaching was significantly reduced within all depth zones and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006.

Climate variability and Crater Lake water levels

Crater Lake has fluctuated in elevation by 5 meters during the 20th Century. Reasons for these fluctuations were investigated as part of a long-term study of the Crater Lake ecosystem. Lake level changes were found to be closely related to precipitation variations. The lake can be thought of as acting as both a giant precipitation gage and as a large evaporation "pan". Winter snowfall variations are related to variations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Crater Lake offers a unique combination of simple geometry and hydrology, and a long record of supporting data, available nowhere else in the world for a caldera lake.

Mechanisms of upper-ocean thermal variability in a 1970-1988 simulation and observations

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Variations in temperature that occurred in the North Pacific thermocline (250 to 400 meters) during the 1970s and 1980s are described in both a numerical simulation and XBT observations.

Reconstructing 20th century flood patterns in Havasu Creek, Arizona, using historical and dendrochronologic data [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Havasu Creek is the second largest tributary of the Colorado River in Grant Canyon. Perennial streamflow in the creek seldom exceeds 2 cubic meters per second, but it supports an important riparian habitat as well as unique travertine pools and waterfalls that attract over 20,000 tourists annually. Havasu Canyon is also home to over 400 members of the Havasu Tribe. Despite a long history of habitation and recreation in Havasu Canyon, streamflow records for Havasu Creek are extremely limited, making flood prediction difficult.

An 800-year paleoflood record from the Sacramento Valley, California [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four cores recovered from Little Packer Lake in Glenn County, California, have provided a paleoflood record for the past 800 years. ... The sequence of flood deposits in the top 2 meters of the record shows a reasonable agreement with the known history of floods during the past 150 years. At least three major flood events are indicated for AD 1400-1525, although these dates may have to be revised when more dates become available.

Evidence for changes in large-scale upwelling in the California Current over the past 700 years [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Bidecadal radiocarbon measurements on tree rings provide a detailed series of carbon-14 activities at isotopic equilibrium with atmospheric carbon dioxide. ... Most marine environments do not permit development of a comparable series of carbon-14 ages with which to compare the terrestrial tree ring series. However, we have recently begun work on such a series using material from the varved sediments of the Santa Barbara Basin off southern California. ... We now have a nearly continuous record of carbon-14 dates representing the age of the water over the upper 100 meters. ... The ocean reservoir ages show an increase prior to 1450 and a progressive decrease with time after 1450. Although there may be other explanations, we believe this trend is principally the result of changes in large-scale upwelling of water from below 500 meters. These changes were probably also associated with changes in the intensity of the California Current.