Deriving acceptable biological catch from the overfishing limit: implications for assessment models

The recently revised Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires that U.S. fishery management councils avoid overfishing by setting annual catch limits (ACLs) not exceeding recommendations of the councils’ scientific advisers. To meet that requirement, the scientific advisers will need to know the overfishing limit (OFL) estimated in each stock assessment, with OFL being the catch available from applying the limit fishing mortality rate to current or projected stock biomass. The advisers then will derive ‘‘acceptable biological catch’’ (ABC) from OFL by reducing OFL to allow for scientific uncertainty, and ABC becomes their recommendation to the council. We suggest methodology based on simple probability theory by which scientific advisers can compute ABC from OFL and the statistical distribution of OFL as estimated by a stock assessment. Our method includes approximations to the distribution of OFL if it is not known from the assessment; however, we find it preferable to have the assessment model estimate the distribution of OFL directly. Probability-based methods such as this one provide well-defined approaches to setting ABC and may be helpful to scientific advisers as they translate the new legal requirement into concrete advice.

Maturity, ovarian cycle, fecundity, and age-specific parturition of black rockfish (Sebastes melanops)

From 1995 to 1998, we collected female black rockfish (Sebastes melanops) off Oregon in order to describe their basic reproductive life history and determine age-specific fecundity and temporal patterns in parturition. Female black rockfish had a 50% probability of being mature at 394 mm fork length and 7.5 years-of-age. The proportion of mature fish age 10 or older significantly decreased each year of this study, from 0.511 in 1996 to 0.145 in 1998. Parturition occurred between mid-January and mid-March, and peaked in February. We observed a trend of older females extruding larvae earlier in the spawning season and of younger fish primarily responsible for larval production during the later part of the season. There were differences in absolute fecundity at age between female black rockfish with prefertilization oocytes and female black rockfish with fertilized eggs; fertilized-egg fecundity estimates were considered superior. The likelihood of yolked oocytes reaching the developing embryo stage increased with maternal age. Absolute fecundity estimates (based on fertilized eggs) ranged from 299,302 embryos for a 6-year-old female to 948,152 embryos for a 16-year-old female. Relative fecundity (based on fertilized eggs) increased with age from 374 eggs/g for fish age 6 to 549 eggs/g for fish age 16.

Solar-cycle modulations of ENSO: a possible source of climatic change

An association between long-term changes in the solar cycle and the frequency of El Niño events has been identified in historical records of El Niño and sunspot number. Although no known mechanism can explain the apparent relationship, the association is strong. A possible coupling between the sun and the ocean's mixed layer, involving ENSO, is worthy of further study.

Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle environmental impacts. The environmental impact assessments were built on Food and Agriculture Organization statistics in terms of production volume of different species, whereas the inputs and outputs associated with aquaculture production systems were sourced from the literature. The matrix of input-output databases was established through the Blue Frontiers study.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

Climatological aspects of the large-scale hydrologic cycle in the United States

We describe a 2.5-degree gridpoint atmospheric hydrology/climatology of precipitable water, precipitation, atmospheric moisture convergence, and a residual evaporation or evapotranspiration for the coterminous United States. We also describe a large-scale surface hydrology/climatology of a residual soil moisture, streamflow divergence, or runoff, as well as precipitation and evaporation. Annual and seasonal means and interrelationships among various components of the hydrologic cycles are discussed.

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

Limit of drug residues in aquatic products (NY5071-2002)

Weimin, ZOU, lexian YANG, lan JIANG, Shuqin WU, Qi YI, Jianli WU

Studies on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperatures, salinities and phytoplankton in Puttalam Lagoon, Dutch Bay and Portugal Bay along the west coast of Ceylon.

The monthly average temperatures at Puttalam Lagoon, Dutch Bay, Portugal Bay towards Kovilmunai and Portugal Bay towards Pallugaturai showed a distinct annual cycle. The peak was in April and values gradually fell till September. There was a further gradual fall in temperature from October to January. The highest temperatures in all four stations were in April. The highest salinities in all the stations were from May to October i.e., during the south-west monsoon. The salinities at Dutch Bay and Portugal Bay were high in March and April corresponding to the highest temperatures reached during these months. Two maxima have been observed in phytoplankton production. A primary maximum in May-June and a secondary maximum in October. The primary and secondary maxima are due to the influx of nutrient laden waters from the rivers Kal Aru and Pomparippu Aru. The phytoplankton producing blooms were Rhizosolenia alata. Rhizosolenia imbricata, Chaetoceros lascinosus, Chaetoceros pervianus, Ch,aetoceros diversus, Coscinodiscus gigas, Thallasionema nitzschioides, Thalassiosira subtilis, Thallassiothrix frauenfeldii, Asterionella japonica, Sceletonema costatum, Bacteriastrum varians and Biddulphia sinensis. Sudden outbursts of a single species were common. These diatoms were species of Chaetoceros and Rhizosolenia, and Thallassiothrix frauenfeldii. Wide fluctuations have been observed in the distribution of phytoplankton but no definite conclusions can be drawn as the period of observation was only one year.