Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Soviet Illegal Whaling: The Devil and the Details

In 1948, the U.S.S.R. began a global campaign of illegal whaling that lasted for three decades and, together with the poorly managed “legal” whaling of other nations, seriously depleted whale populations. Although the general story of this whaling has been told and the catch record largely corrected for the Southern Hemisphere, major gaps remain in the North Pacific. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the details of this system or its economic context. Using interviews with former Soviet whalers and biologists as well as previously unavailable reports and other material in Russian, our objective is to describe how the Soviet whaling industry was structured and how it worked, from the largest scale of state industrial planning down to the daily details of the ways in which whales were caught and processed, and how data sent to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics were falsified. Soviet whaling began with the factory ship Aleut in 1933, but by 1963 the industry had a truly global reach, with seven factory fleets (some very large). Catches were driven by a state planning system that set annual production targets. The system gave bonuses and honors only when these were met or exceeded, and it frequently increased the following year’s targets to match the previous year’s production; scientific estimates of the sustainability of the resource were largely ignored. Inevitably, this system led to whale populations being rapidly reduced. Furthermore, productivity was measured in gross output (weights of whales caught), regardless of whether carcasses were sound or rotten, or whether much of the animal was unutilized. Whaling fleets employed numerous people, including women (in one case as the captain of a catcher boat). Because of relatively high salaries and the potential for bonuses, positions in the whaling industry were much sought-after. Catching and processing of whales was highly mechanized and became increasingly efficient as the industry gained more experience. In a single day, the largest factory ships could process up to 200 small sperm whales, Physeter macrocephalus; 100 humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae; or 30–35 pygmy blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda. However, processing of many animals involved nothing more than stripping the carcass of blubber and then discarding the rest. Until 1952, the main product was whale oil; only later was baleen whale meat regularly utilized. Falsified data on catches were routinely submitted to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics, but the true catch and biological data were preserved for research and administrative purposes. National inspectors were present at most times, but, with occasional exceptions, they worked primarily to assist fulfillment of plan targets and routinely ignored the illegal nature of many catches. In all, during 40 years of whaling in the Antarctic, the U.S.S.R. reported 185,778 whales taken but at least 338,336 were actually killed. Data for the North Pacific are currently incomplete, but from provisional data we estimate that at least 30,000 whales were killed illegally in this ocean. Overall, we judge that, worldwide, the U.S.S.R. killed approximately 180,000 whales illegally and caused a number of population crashes. Finally, we note that Soviet illegal catches continued after 1972 despite the presence of international observers on factory fleets.

Transboundary Movement of Atlantic Istiophorid Billfishes Among International and U.S. Domestic Management Areas Inferred from Mark-Recapture Studies

Billfish movements relative to the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas management areas, as well as U.S. domestic data collection areas within the western North Atlantic basin, were investigated with mark-recapture data from 769 blue marlin, Makaira nigricans, 961 white marlin, Tetrapturus albidus, and 1,801 sailfish, Istiophorus platypterus. Linear displacement between release and recapture locations ranged from zero (all species) to 15,744 km (mean 575, median 119, SE 44) for blue marlin, 6,523 km (mean 719, median 216, SE 33) for white marlin, and 3,845 km (mean 294, median 98, SE 13) for sailfish. In total, 2,824 (80.0%) billfish were recaptured in the same management area of release. Days at liberty ranged from zero (all species) to 4,591 (mean 619, median 409, SE 24) for blue marlin, 5,488 (mean 692, median 448, SE 22) for white marlin, and 6,568 (mean 404, median 320, SE 11) for sailfish. The proportions (per species) of visits were highest in the Caribbean area for blue marlin and white marlin, and the Florida East Coast area for sailfish. Blue marlin and sailfish were nearly identical when comparing the percent of individuals vs. the number of areas visited. Overall, white marlin visited more areas than either blue marlin or sailfish. Seasonality was evident for all species, with overall results generally reflecting the efforts of the catch and release recreational fishing sector, particularly in the western North Atlantic. This information may be practical in reducing the uncertainties in billfish stock assessments and may offer valuable insight into management consideration of time-area closure regulations to reduce bycatch mortality of Atlantic billfishes.

Untrawlable Bottom in Shrimp Statistical Zones of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico Fisheries Management Council tasked the National Marine Fisheries Service with determining the extent, if any, of loss oft rawlable bottom in the Gulf of Mexico based upon fishing industry concerns. There are approximately 31 million hectares in the 21 shrimp statistical zones in the Gulf, approximately 23 million hectares of waters that are <35 fathoms (where most shrimp trawling effort occurs), and approximately 11 million hectares in zones 10-21, <35f athoms, which were examined. There are 31,338 known hangs, snags, artificial reefs, hazards to navigation, oil rigs, and similar obstructions which cause trawling to be unfeasible in these zones. There are several refuge (i.e. untrawlable) areas associated with the Alabama Artificial Reefs. Conservatively assuming 1 hectare for each known obstruction, coupled with the known area of each refuge, the estimate of total untrawlable bottom in zones 10-21 less than 35 fathoms in the Gulf is 185,953 hectares, or roughly 1.7% of this total trawlable area. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of this assumption, with a range of 0.3-4.3% possible. In specific shrimp zones, untrawlable area is much less than 1% except in zones 10 (26%) and 11(2.5%), both of which possess a refuge. Other than the implementation periods of these refugia, no temporal trends were detectable with respect to the amount of untrawlable bottom.

Catch and Bycatch in the Shark Drift Gillnet Fishery off Georgia and East Florida

An observer program of the shark drift gillnet fishery off the Atlantic coast of Florida and Georgia was begun in 1993 to define the fishery and estimate bycatch including bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops truncatus, and sea turtles. Boats in the fishery were 12.2-19.8 m long. Nets used were 275-1,800 m long and 3.2-4.1 m deep. Stretched-mesh sizes used were 12.7-29.9 cm. Fishing trips were usually <18 h and occurred within 30 n.mi. of port. Fishing with an observer aboard occurred between Savannah, Ga., and Jacksonville, Fla., and off Cape Canaveral, Fla. Nets were set at least 3 n.mi. offshore. Numbers of boats in the fishery increased from 5 in 1993 to 11 in 1995, but total trips decreased from 185 in 1994 to 149 in 1995. During 1993-95, 48 observer trips were completed and 52 net sets were observed. No marine mammals were caught and two loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, were caught and released alive. A total of 9,270 animals (12 shark, 21 teleost, 4 ray, and 1 sea turtle species) were captured. Blacknose, Carcharhinus acronotus; Atlantic sharpnose, Rhizoprionodon terraenovae; and blacktip shark, C. limbatus), were the dominant sharks caught. King mackerel, Scomberomorus cavalIa; little tunny, Euthynnus alleteratus; and cownose ray, Rhinoptera bonasus, were the dominant bycatch species. About 8.4% of the total catch was bycatch. Of the totals, 9.4% of the sharks and 37.3% ofthe bycatch were discarded.

Seasonal Occurrence of the White Shark, Carcharodon carcharias, in Waters off the Florida West Coast, with Notes on its Life History

The white shark, Carcharodon carcharias, is considered rare in the Gulf of Mexico; however, recent longline captures coupled with historical landings information suggest that the species occurs seasonally (winter-spring) within this region. We examined a total of seven adult and juvenile white sharks (185-472 em total length) captured in waters off the west coast of Florida. Commercial longline fisheries were monitored for white sharks during all months (1981-94), but this species was captured only from January to April. All white sharks were captured in continental shelf waters from 37 to 222 km off the west coast of Florida when sea surface temperatures ranged from 18.7° to 21.6°C. Depths at capture locations ranged from 20 to 164 m. Fishing gear typically used in Gulf of Mexico offshore fisheries may not be effective at capturing this species, and the apparent rarity of white sharks in this area may be, in part, a function of gear bias.

Coping with the Lionfish Invasion: can targeted removals yield beneficial effects?

Invasive species generate significant environmental and economic costs, with maintenance management constituting a major expenditure. Such costs are generated by invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois spp.) that further threaten already stressed coral reefs in the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. This brief review documents rapid range expansion and potential impacts of lionfish. In addition, preliminary experimental data from targeted removals contribute to debates about maintenance management. Removals at sites off Little Cayman Island shifted the size frequency distribution of remaining lionfish toward smaller individuals whose stomachs contained less prey and fewer fish. Fewer lionfish and decreased predation on threatened grouper, herbivores and other economically and ecologically important fishes represent key steps toward protecting reefs. However, complete evaluation of success requires long-term data detailing immigration and recruitment by lionfish, compensatory growth and reproduction of lionfish, reduced direct effects on prey assemblages, and reduced indirect effects mediated by competition for food. Preventing introductions is the best way to avoid impacts from invasive species and early detection linked to rapid response ranks second. Nevertheless, results from this case study suggest that targeted removals represent a viable option for shifting direct impacts of invasive lionfish away from highly vulnerable components of ecosystems.