Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Estimating consumption rates of juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus) in Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, using a bioenergetics model*

Using a bioenergetics model, we estimated daily ration and seasonal prey consumption rates for six age classes of juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus) in the lower Chesapeake Bay summer nursery area. The model, incorporating habitat and species-specific data on growth rates, metabolic rate, diet composition, water temperature (range 16.8−27.9°C), and population structure, predicted mean daily rations between 2.17 ±0.03 (age-0) and 1.30 ±0.02 (age-5) % body mass/day. These daily rations are higher than earlier predictions for sandbar sharks but are comparable to those for ecologically similar shark species. The total nursery population of sandbar sharks was predicted to consume ~124,000 kg of prey during their 4.5 month stay in the Chesapeake Bay nursery. The predicted consumption rates support the conclusion that juvenile sandbar sharks exert a lesser top-down effect on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem than do teleost piscivores and hu

Depredation of catch by bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Florida king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) troll fishery

We documented depredation by bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Florida king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) troll fishery. Between March and June 2003, we conducted 26 interviews of charter and commercial fishermen in Islamorada, Florida, and 23 along Florida’s east coast from Fort Pierce south to Lake Worth Inlet. All fishermen indicated they had observed bottlenose dolphins depredating bait or catch—king mackerel being the species most often taken by dolphins. During on-board observations of depredation between March and June 2003, we found that dolphins took 6% of king mackerel caught by charter fishermen and 20% of fish caught by commercial fishermen. We concluded that depredation by bottlenose dolphin occurs commonly in this fishery and has the potential to incur a significant economic cost to king mackerel fishermen. To address this concern, we conducted preliminary tests of a gear modification designed to reduce depredation in the king mackerel fishery between December 2003 and January 2004. These tests demonstrated that a modification to the outrigger planer will successfully deter bottlenose dolphins from engaging in depredation, without causing a reduction in ca