Multiple-proxy lacustrine record of moisture transport over western North America from 24,000 to 12,000 YBP, Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pluvial Lake Estancia in central New Mexico experienced large and rapid fluctuations in surface area and elevation during the build-up to and termination of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Due to continuous groundwater discharge, a minimum pool covering about 400 square kilometers was maintained in the central basin until about 12,000 years ago, ensuring a continuous depositional sequence even during low stands of the lake. ... The sensitive response to fluctuations in climate by several independent proxies at Estancia show that transport of Pacific moisture over western North America changed dramatically during the last Ice Age, perhaps comparable to the large and rapid changes in climate documented from high-latitude ice and North Atlantic marine sediments for the LCM and its transitions.

A rock-magnetic and geomagnetic secular variation record from late-Pleistocene Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Exposed sediments of Late Pleistocene Lake Estancia contain a high resolution record of regional climate variability for the period about 12,000 to 32,000 years. A detailed rock-magnetic study is being performed on this well-dated, well-preserved sedimentary sequence to determine how the magnetic signature of sediments responded to regional climate change.

The QBO, El Niño, and tidal resonance model

I tentatively conclude ... that the QBO may be either modulated or amplified by atmospheric tidal resonances. The generally strong correlation between the QBO and tropical Southern Oscillation, in turn, suggests that one or probably both of these stratospheric and tropospheric oscillations are modulated or amplified by the same tidal-resonance system. ... The strikingly weaker correlation between the Southern Oscillation and El Niño events strongly suggests that some critical parameters are missing in the GCMs specifically designed to predict El Niño occurrence.

Chronological records of climate-related events and societal consequences [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A chronology of documented regional and global warm and cold event records is collated along with documented ecosystem response records and health threat/sequellae records for the historical period. Patterns of societal response to cold periods punctuated by warm periods have been associated with considerable human health impacts, stimulated by blooms in disease vectors such as rodents and insects.

Introduction

The Thirteenth Annual PACLIM Workshop was held at the Asilomar Conference Center on April 14-17, 1996. Attended by about 100 registered participants, the workshop included 27 talks and 26 poster presentations. The talks consisted of a one-day theme session of seven 45-minute talks and two featured evening talks. Throughout the remainder of the meeting were nearly 20 shorter, 20-minute presentations. Poster presenters gave a short 1-2 minute introduction to their posters, which were displayed during the entire meeting. All presenters were invited to expand their abstracts into a manuscript for inclusion in the Proceedings volume, and nearly all presentations are included in manuscript or abstract form. In this Proceedings volume, manuscripts are presented first, and abstracts of talks and then posters follow.

The top ten California floods of the 20th century

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the biggest northern California floods of the 20th century. Flooding in California can occur from different causes. At least three types of floods occur: 1. Winter general floods, which cover a large area. 2. Spring and early summer snowmelt floods unique to the higher-elevation central and southern Sierra Nevada, which occur about once in 10 years on the average. 3. Local floods from strong thunderstorms, with intense rain over a relatively small area. These originate in moist tropical or subtropical air and include the flash floods of the desert and other areas of southern California when remnants of eastern Pacific hurricanes get carried into the state.

Daily rainfall along the United States Pacific Coast appears to conform to a square-root normal probability distribution

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): As part of a study of climatic influences on landslide initiation, a statistical analysis of long-term (>40 years) records of daily rainfall from 24 Pacific coastal stations, from San Diego to Cape Flattery, disclosed an unexpected result - the square root of the daily rainfall closely approximates a normal distribution function. ... This paper illustrates the use of the square-root-normal distribution to analyze variations in precipitation along the mainland United States Pacific Coast with examples of orographic enhancement, rain shadows, and increase in precipitation frequency with geographic latitude.

An uncommon period of cold and change of lapse rate in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Temperature and lapse rate show extreme departures from mean values for May 1981 through October 1986 at the high-elevation station D1 on Niwot Ridge in the Front Range, Colorado. If the D1 record is accurate, this period may present an opportunity to identify factors that influence temperature at high elevations, but not necessarily at low elevations. This paper focuses on four questions: (1) Is the D1 temperature record accurate? (2) What is the geographical extent of this anomalous cold period? (3) Are there any identifiable contributing factors or physical events relating to this period? (4) Is there evidence of a similar anomalous period in the past?

A late-Holocene pollen record from Lower Pahrangat Lake, southern Nevada, USA: high resolution paleoclimatic records and analysis of environmental responses to climate change

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High resolution paleobotanical records provide sufficient detail to correlate events regionally. Once correlated events can be examined in tandem to determine the underlying inputs that fashioned them. Several localities in the Great Basin have paleobotanical records of sufficient detail to generate regional reconstructions of vegetation changes for the last 2 ka and provide conclusions as to the climates that caused them.

Decadal hydroclimatic variability in the western coastal United States: temporal and spatial variations in precipitation, streamflow, and lake level

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We have analyzed streamflow variations recorded at 15 USGS gauging stations in California during the past 90 years or so. The anomalies (departures from the 1960-1990 mean discharge) of streamflow on annual-to-decadal time scales are strongly correlated with precipitation anomalies in each drainage basin. ... Although causes of the decadal climate (precipitation) variability are not known with certainty, the use of streamflow records may help us understand the relative strengths of moisture sources and shift of the jet stream in atmospheric circulation.

Monte Carlo simulation of streamflow of the Salt River, Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Evaluations of the impact of climate change (such as a greenhouse effect) upon water resources should represent both the expected change and the uncertainty in that expectation. Since water resources such as streamflow and reservoir levels depend on a variety of factors, each of which is subject to significant uncertainty, it is desirable to formulate methods of representing that uncertainty in the forcing factors and from this determine the uncertainty in the response variables of interest. We report here progress in the representation of the uncertainty in climate upon the uncertainty in the estimated hydrologic response.

The influence of climate on phytoplankton communities in the upper San Francisco estuary

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 1977 climate shift was characterized by low chlorophyll a concentrations and a shift in phytoplankton community composition throughout the upper San Francisco Bay estuary. ... For climate to be a driving force in phytoplankton communities, it must affect mechanisms that control biomass and community composition. The influence of climate on environmental conditions and phytoplankton community composition among water-year types was examined using 19 years of physical, chemical, and phytoplankton data collected monthly at 15 stations throughout the estuary.

Potential solar radiation at H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Potential (clear-sky) radiation receipt is modeled for the slopes of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site in the foothills of the southern Cascade mountains of central Oregon. The modeling method developed by Williams is selected and applied to the forest area for the times of the solstices and equinox as well as mid-month times in January, February, April, and May in order to completely characterize the seasonal change of potential radiation at the location. ... It seems that Lookout Creek approximately divides the Andrews Forest into an area of relatively high potential radiation to the north of the creek and relatively lower potential radiation values to the south of the creek. Potential radiation values seem to be associated with the Andrews GIS data layers of debris flows and predominant tree species zones.

Quantifying global terrestrial carbon influx and storage as stimulated by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Measurements of spatial and temporal distributions of carbon dioxide concentration and carbon-13/carbon-12 ratio in the atmosphere suggest a strong biospheric carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems. Quantifying the sink, however, has become an enormous challenge for Earth system scientists because of great uncertainties associated with biological variation and environmental heterogeneity in the ecosystems. This paper presents an approach that uses two driving parameters to bound terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with an increase in carbon dioxide concentration.

Long-term response of Torrey pine to coastal climate: precipitation, temperature, and fog

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry ex Carr.) has one of the most limited geographical ranges and population size in the Pinus genus; it is present only on Santa Rosa Island and on the coast between San Diego and Del Mar, where our research was conducted. A 168-year chronology (1827-1994) was developed using 28 increment cores extracted from 15 living and 2 dead stranding trees at Torrey Pines State Reserve, San Diego, California. ... The spatial correlation with western North America winter and spring precipitation, as well as with published tree-ring chronologies, indicates a connection with the American Southwest. Global correlation maps with winter sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are consistent with the hypothesis that San Diego precipitation is affected by a southerly displaced North Pacific storm track and by warmer water farther south, both leading to higher transport of lower latitude moisture.