Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

1976 step in the Pacific climate: forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-1984

Examination of 40 time series of multidisciplinary environmental variables from the Pacific Ocean and the Americas, collected in 1968 to 1984, demonstrated the remarkable consistency of a major climate-related, step-like change in 1976. To combine the 40 variables (e.g., air and water temperatures, Southern Oscillation, chlorophyll, geese, salmon, crabs, glaciers, atmospheric dust, coral, carbon dioxide, winds, ice cover, Bering Strait transport) into a single time series, standard variants of individual annual values (subtracting the mean and dividing by a standard deviation) were averaged. Analysis of the resulting time series showed that the single step in 1976, separating the 1968-1975 period from the 1977-1984 period, accounted for 89% of variance within the composite time series. Apparently, one of the Earth's large ecosystems occasionally undergoes large abrupt shifts.

Rapid changes in the vegetation of a shallow pond in Epping Forest, related to recent droughts

Over much of Britain, 1995 and 1996 have been perceived as drought years. To evaluate the impact that local climatic conditions are having upon successional changes in higher vegetation (macrophytes), Speakmans Pond in Epping Forest was surveyed and mapped in 1996. The results are related to previous vegetation surveys carried out in 1989 and 1991. In 1989 the dominant marginal vegetation was floating sweet-grass Glyceria fluitans, which also covered a major part of the main body of the pond. Other abundant species included soft rush Juncus effusus, reed mace Typha latifolia and yellow flag Iris pseudocorus. A small (central) area of open water contained bladderwort Utricularia vulgaris and white water-lily Nymphaea alba. A similar plant coverage was found in 1991, with a dominance of floating sweet-grass along the shallow eastern edge. A marked change in the pond was found during the 1996 survey of vegetation in July, when the pool was dry. The major plant cover now consisted of creeping bent Agrostis stolonifera, with isolated clumps of Yorkshire fog Holcus lanatus around the edges; both are terrestrial grasses found on land surrounding the pond. Rushes (Juncus) had increased their distribution round the margins of the pond, and the patch of yellow flag noted in 1989 and 1991 was not found in 1996. The deeper trenches were also dry, but a small patch of white water-lily remained adjacent to one of the trenches.

"Rapid and dramatic changes in vegetation" of a small pond on Holy Island (Northumbria): Chaotic dynamics?

This note describes changes to the relative extent of four structurally dominant submerged macrophytes in a pond on Holy Island National Nature Reserve, Northumbria, between 1991 and 1998. The estimated extent of the four submerged macrophytes and bare substratum between 1991 and 1998 showed dramatic changes with no obvious pattern or periodicity, as well as no identifiable natural or anthropogenic causes. Chaotic variation may be an important character of submerged pond plant populations, so that surveys taken in a single year may give an unreliable picture of plant populations.

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes

The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather conditions were very different to what they are today. Most are based on samples collected at weekly or fortnightly intervals and cannot quantify the effects of short-term, more extreme, variations in the weather. In this article, the author presents some examples to show the importance of developing new monitoring methods using case studies from a number of lakes in the English Lake District. The impact of year-to-year changes and short-term changes on the dynamics of of lakes are highlighted.

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes

Year-to-year changes in the weather have a pronounced effect on the quality of the water abstracted from many reservoirs in the UK. In upland reservoirs, the most common weather-related problem is the appearance of coloured water following dry summers and the re-wetting of peat during the winter (Naden & McDonald 1989; George 2000). In lowland reservoirs, the most serious weather-related issue is the growth of bloom- forming species of algae during warm, calm summers (National Rivers Authority 1989). Both of these problems are likely to get worse as the climate becomes warmer and extreme variations in the weather become more common. In this article, the authors describe some of the ways in which recent changes in the weather have influenced the quality of the water stored in a large reservoir in the south-east of England. The reservoir selected for study is the Queen Elizabeth II (QEII), a bankside reservoir situated in the Thames valley. The quality of water stored in this reservoir is generally very good but summer blooms of algae have become increasingly common in recent years.

Ecological change in Lough Erne: influence of catchment changes and species invasions

Lough Erne in Northern Ireland has been the subject of much research over the last 30 years by, amongst others, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD). In this article, the authors provide a summary of a workshop held on the 16–17th October 2003 in Enniskillen, on the shores of Lough Erne, which gave an opportunity to step back and take a holistic look at the Erne lakes. Ecological change has been driven by many factors, including land use changes and species invasions. The workshop consisted of five sessions which are summarised in this article: Session 1 – Invasive species, nutrients, phytoplankton and macrophytes; Session 2 – Zooplankton, benthic macroinvertebrates and fish; Session 3 – An ecosystem approach – relating the previous sessions; Session 4 – How does Lough Erne fit into lake classifications? Implications of the Water Framework Directive; Session 5 – Using new techniques to examine food webs and species invasions. Identifying a future research programme for Lough Erne.

Changes in the organism of females of some Cladocera in transition to gamogenesis. [Translation from: Zoologicheskie Zhurnal 49 1573-1575, 1970. ]

In species of Cladocera not forming ephippia, the latent eggs have a sheath formed by glands of the reproductive canals. Representatives of the families Daphniidae and Moinidae Goulden, 1968, in connection with the formation of their complex-structured ephippia, lost these glands. It was investigated whether there are such glands in species the latent eggs of which are enclosed in primitive ephippia. For this, with the help of histological methods, 55 females of Acroperus elongatus (Sars) (Chydoridea) and 88 females of Lathonura rectirostris (O. F. Muller), (Macrothricidae) were collected near Leningrad, were studied.

The changes in various iron compounds in culture media for algae. [Translation from: Archiv fur Hydrobiologie Supplemente Band 38(1/2) 151-169, 1970.]

The purpose of this work is a contribution to the quantitative record of the use of iron by planktonic algae. Preliminary experiments with Chlorella to determine the rate of iron intake in the presence of inorganic sources of iron did not produce the desired result. The crucial point of this work is the investigation of the influence of various external factors on the stability of FeEDTA (FeEDTA = Ferric(III)-compound of ethylene-diamine tetra-acetic acid), since this compound appears to be particularly well-suited as a source of iron for planktonic algae (e.g. TAMIYA et al. 1953). Cultures of Chlorella fusca in a light thermostat were used in experimental research. Methods and results are discussed.

Changes in Fish Communities in the Upper Patuxent River from 1966 to 1977

Ten year comparison of fish survey's with respect to diversity evenness and composition of fish communities. The upper Patuxent River was divided into Piedmont Plateau and Coastal Plain regions, not only for geographical purposes, but also because of the clustering of sewage treatment plants in the Coastal Plain region. In the Piedmont Plateau region, the fish species diversity changed very little from 1966 to 1977 ( Little Patuxent -- 2.82 to 2.66; Middle Patuxent -- 2.86 to 2.83; and main stem -- 2.46 to 2.63), except in a section of Little Patuxent River at and below the City of Columbia where the species diversity index showed a significant reduction from 2.97 to 1.99, and in a section of the main stem Patuxent River immediately downstream from the Brighton Dam of the Triadelphia Reservoir where the index increased significantly from 1.66 to 3.20. In the Coastal Plain region, a significant reduction in the fish species diversity index occurred between 1966 and 1977 below the two sewage treatment plant outfalls : Savage -- 2.69 to 0 and Patuxent-Crofton -- 3.06 to 1.33. Also, the substantial reduction in the species diversity index which had already occurred in 1966 below the six other plant: outfalls of Fort Meade No. I, Fort Meade No. 2, Maryland House of Correction, Maryland City , Parkway and Bowie, remained depressed in 1977. On the other hand, below the Horsepen Sewage Treatment Plant (a tertiary plant practicing dechlorination) the species diversity index increased from 1.91 to 2.8. (PDF contains 48 pages)

Changes in feeding biology of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (L.), after invasion of water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms, in Lake Victoria, Kenya

Oreochrimis niloticus (L.) was introduced to Lake victoria in the 1950s. It remained relatively uncommon in catches until 1965, when the numbers began to increase dramatically. It is now the third most important commercial fish species after the Nile perch, Lates niloticus (L.) and Rastrineobola argentea (Pellegrin). Oreochromis niloticus is considered a herbivore, feeding mostly on algae and plant material. The diet now appears to be more diversified , with insects, fish, algae and plant materials all being important food items. Fish smaller than 5 cm TL have a diverse diet but there is a decline in the importance of zooplankton, the preferred food item of small fish, as fish get larger. The shift in diet could be due to changes which have occurred in the lake. Water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms, which harbours numerous insects in its root balls, now has extensively coverage over the lake. The native fish species which preyed on these insects (e.g. haplochromines) have largely been eliminated and O. niloticus could be filling niches previously occupied by these cichlids and non cichlid fishes. The change in diet could also be related to food availability and abundance where the fish is feeding on the most readily available food items.

Changes in the phytoplankton

An article discussing changes observed in phytoplankton of the Lake District. An overview is given of previous phytoplankton studies undertaken in the area, detailing some changes found in various waterbodies. Water quality changes in Lake Windermere are mentioned, including the gradual increase of dissolved organic matter (DOM), believed to be caused by the increase of sewage to the lake. The lakes in the Alps are given as an example of a similar anthropogenic pollution scenario. The treatment of a Lake District tarn with bone meal is described. The article goes on to discuss the composition of plankton throughout the year under a variety of climatic conditions. A figure shows seasonal variation in the consistuents of phytoplankton in Windermere (north basin).

Changes in physical and chemical variables

An article reviewing the work undertaken looking at the seasonal variation of chemical conditions in water at various depths in lakes. The laboratory tests undertaken for the research is outlined, as well as details of the sampling locations and the staff involved with the work. One figure shows the seasonal variation in the amounts of dissolved substances in the surface water of Windermere during 1936. Another figure shows seasonal varation inthe dry weight of phyto- and zooplankton in Windermere. Seasonal changes are discussed further and a table is included showing chemical conditions in winter and summer for Windermere.

'The highly nervous system of the English Lakes': aquatic ecosystem sensitivity to external changes, as demonstrated by diatoms.

The author reviews the stratigraphic diatom profile of Cumbrian lakes since the last glaciation. Knowledge of both present and previous interglacials suggests that a natural cycle of change is imposed on all lakes. The nature of inwashed material is dependant on climatic and natural soilcycles and this affects the water quality and sensitive aquatic biota. Anthropogenic effects are superimposed upon this with forest clearance and pollution. Whilst some Cumbrian diatom profiles extend over the entire post glacial, others cover only detailed sections relating to particular problems. Causes and effect of recent changes in lakes can be studied using indicator species but palaeocology contributes greatly to understanding of long term changes.

Changes of water quality and sediment phosphorus of a small productive lake following decreased phosphorus loading

Esthwaite Water is the most productive or eutrophic lake in the English Lake District. Since 1945 its water quality has been determined from weekly or biweekly measurements of temperature, oxygen, plant nutrients and phytoplankton abundance. The lake receives phosphorus from its largely lowland-pasture catchment, sewage effluent from the villages of Hawkshead and Near Sawrey, and from a cage-culture fish farm. From 1986 phosphorus has been removed from the sewage effluent of Hawkshead which was considered to contribute between 47% and 67% of the total phosphorus loading to the lake. At the commencement of phosphorus removal regular measurements of phosphorus in the superficial 0-4 cm layer of lake sediment were made from cores collected at random sites. Since 1986 the mean annual concentration of alkali-extractable sediment phosphorus has decreased by 23%. This change is not significant at the 5% level but nearly so. There has been no marked change in water quality over this period. Summer dominance of blue-green algae which arose in the early 1980s after decline of the previous summer forms, Ceratium spp., has been maintained. Improvement in water quality is unlikely to be achieved at the present phosphorus loading.