Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

Assessing trends in the density of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus): a comparison of passive acoustic and trawl methods

Using data collected simultaneously from a trawl and a hydrophone, we found that temporal and spatial trends in densities of juvenile Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Neuse River estuary in North Carolina can be identified by monitoring their sound production. Multivariate analysis of covariance (MA NCOVA) revealed that catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of Atlantic croaker had a significant relationship with the dependent variables of sound level and peak frequency of Atlantic croaker calls. Tests of between-subject correspondence failed to detect relationships between CPUE and either of the call parameters, but statistical power was low. Williamson’s index of spatial overlap indicated that call detection rate (expressed by a 0–3 calling index) was correlated in time and space with Atlantic croaker CPUE. The correspondence between acoustic parameters and trawl catch rates varied by month and by habitat. In general, the calling index had a higher degree of overlap with this species’ density than did the received sound level of their calls. Classification and regression tree analysis identified calling index as the strongest correlate of CPUE. Passive acoustics has the potential to be an inexpensive means of identifying spatial and temporal trends in abundance for soniferous fish species.

An environmentally based growth model that uses finite difference calculus with maximum likelihood method: its application to the brackish water bivalve Corbicula japonica in Lake Abashiri, Japan

We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

Effects of density-dependence and sea surface temperature on interannual variation in length-at-age of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the Kuroshio-Oyashio area during 1970–1997

Annual mean fork length (FL) of the Pacific stock of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) was examined for the period of 1970–97. Fork length at age 0 (6 months old) was negatively correlated with year-class strength which fluctuated between 0.2 and 14 billion in number for age-0 fish. Total stock biomass was correlated with FL at age but was not a significant factor. Sea surface temperature (SST) between 38–40°N and 141–143°E during April–June was also negatively correlated with FL at age 0. A modified von Bertalanffy growth model that incorporated the effects of population density and SST on growth was well fitted to the observed FL at ages. The relative FL at age 0 for any given year class was maintained throughout the life span. The variability in size at age in the Pacific stock of chub mackerel is largely attributable to growth during the first six months after hatching.

Temporal changes in population density, fecundity, and egg size of the Hawaiian spiny lobster (Panulirus marginatus) at Necker Bank, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Fecundity (F, number of brooded eggs) and egg size were estimated for Hawaiian spiny lobster (Panulirus marginatus) at Necker Bank, North-western Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), in June 1999, and compared with previous (1978–81, 1991) estimates. Fecundity in 1999 was best described by the power equations F = 7.995 CL 2.4017, where CL is carapace length in mm (r2=0.900), and F = 5.174 TW 2.758, where TW is tail width in mm (r2=0.889) (both n=40; P< 0.001). Based on a log-linear model ANCOVA, size-specific fecundity in 1999 was 18% greater than in 1991, which in turn was 16% greater than during 1978–81. The additional increase in size-specific fecundity observed in 1999 is interpreted as evidence for further compensatory response to decreased lobster densities and increased per capita food resources that have resulted either from natural cyclic declines in productivity, high levels of harvest by the commercial lobster trap fishery, or both.

A model for assessing the likelihood of self-sustaining populations resulting from commercial production of triploid Suminoe oysters (Crassostrea ariakensis) in Chesapeake Bay

Culture of a non-native species, such as the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis), could offset the harvest of the declining native eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) fishery in Chesapeake Bay. Because of possible ecological impacts from introducing a fertile non-native species, introduction of sterile triploid oysters has been proposed. However, recent data show that a small percentage of triploid individuals progressively revert toward diploidy, introducing the possibility that Suminoe oysters might establish self-sustaining populations. To assess the risk of Suminoe oyster populations becoming established in Chesapeake Bay, a demographic population model was developed. Parameters modeled were salinity, stocking density, reversion rate, reproductive potential, natural and harvest-induced mortality, growth rates, and effects of various management strategies, including harvest strategies. The probability of a Suminoe oyster population becoming self-sustaining decreased in the model when oysters are grown at low salinity sites, certainty of harvest is high, mini-mum shell length-at-harvest is small, and stocking density is low. From the results of the model, we suggest adopting the proposed management strategies shown by the model to decrease the probability of a Suminoe oyster population becoming self-sustaining. Policy makers and fishery managers can use the model to predict potential outcomes of policy decisions, supporting the ability to make science-based policy decisions about the proposed introduction of triploid Suminoe oysters into the Chesapeake Bay.

Comparisons of open boundary conditions in a barotropic model of the northern Arabian Sea

These simulations are focused on the sensitivity of the barotropic ocean non-linear model to the various open boundary conditions (OBCs). Different OBCs from gradient to radiation condition are examined to determine the best result and help to choose the most appropriate OBCs. Since the interior points are changing with time both implicit and explicit forms are applied. The simulations showed that the interior flow is sensitive to changes in the OBCs and the results are highly dependent on the bathymetry of the area. When a constant depth (100m) is used, the circulation pattern with all OBCs is same. The best boundary conditions are Orlanski Radiation and its modified form. These boundary conditions produce identical adjustment in velocity and are determined to be satisfactory for both constant depth and actual bathymetry.