Statistical inference about the relative efficiency of a new survey protocol, based on paired-tow survey calibration data

Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.

Prediction of discard mortality for Alaskan crabs after exposure to freezing temperatures, based on a reflex impairment index

Millions of crabs are sorted and discarded in freezing conditions each year in Alaskan fisheries for Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio). However, cold exposures vary widely over the fishing season and among different vessels, and mortalities are difficult to estimate. A shipboard experiment was conducted to determine whether simple behavioral observations can be used to evaluate crab condition after low-temperature exposures. Crabs were systematically subjected to cold in seven different exposure treatments. They were then tested for righting behavior and six different ref lex actions and held to monitor mortality. Crabs lost limbs, showed ref lex impairment, and died in direct proportion to increases in cold exposure. Righting behavior was a poor predictor of mortality, whereas reflex impairment (scored as the sum of reflex actions that were lost) was an excellent predictor. This composite index could be measured quickly and easily in hand, and logistic regression revealed that the relationship between reflex impairment and mortality correctly predicted 80.0% of the mortality and survival for C. bairdi, and 79.4% for C. opilio. These relationships provide substantial improvements over earlier approaches to mortality estimation and were independent of crab size and exposure temperature.

An assessment of discard mortality for two Alaskan crab species, Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio), based on reflex impairment

Delayed mortality associated with discarded crabs and fishes has ordinarily been observed through tag and recovery studies or during prolonged holding in deck tanks, and there is need for a more efficient assessment method. Chionoecetes bairdi (Tanner crab) and C. opilio (snow crab) collected with bottom trawls in Bering Sea waters off Alaska were evaluated for reflexes and injuries and held onboard to track mortality. Presence or absence of six reflex actions was determined and combined to calculate a reflex impairment index for each species. Logistic regression revealed that reflex impairment provided an excellent predictor of delayed mortality in C. opilio (91% correct predictions). For C. bairdi, reflex impairment, along with injury score, resulted in 82.7% correct predictions of mortality, and reflex impairment alone resulted in 79.5% correct predictions. The relationships between reflex impairment score and mortality were independent of crab gender, size, and shell condition, and predicted mortality in crabs with no obvious external damage. These relationships provide substantial improvement over earlier predictors of mortality and will help to increase the scope and replication of fishing and handling experiments. The general approach of using reflex actions to predict mortality should be equally valuable for a wide range of crustacean species.

Defining plausible migration rates based on historical tagging data: a Bayesian mark-recapture model applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus)

A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.

Do oil and gas platforms off California reduce recruitment of bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) to natural habitat? An analysis based on trajectories derived from high-frequency radar

To investigate the possibility that oil and gas platforms may reduce recruitment of rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) to natural habitat, we simulated drift pathways termed “trajectories” in our model) from an existing oil platform to nearshore habitat using current measurements from high-frequency (HF) radars. The trajectories originated at Platform Irene, located west of Point Conception, California, during two recruiting seasons for bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis): May through August, 1999 and 2002. Given that pelagic juvenile bocaccio dwell near the surface, the trajectories estimate transport to habitat. We assumed that appropriate shallow water juvenile habitat exists inshore of the 50-m isobath. Results from 1999 indicated that 10% of the trajectories represent transport to habitat, whereas 76% represent transport across the offshore boundary. For 2002, 24% represent transport to habitat, and 69% represent transport across the offshore boundary. Remaining trajectories (14% and 7% for 1999 and 2002, respectively) exited the coverage area either northward or southward along isobaths. Deployments of actual drifters (with 1-m drogues) from a previous multiyear study provided measurements originating near Platform Irene from May through August. All but a few of the drifters moved offshore, as was also shown with the HF radar-derived trajectories. These results indicate that most juvenile bocaccio settling on the platform would otherwise have been transported offshore and perished in the absence of a platform. However, these results do not account for the swimming behavior of juvenile bocaccio, about which little is known.

A prior for steepness in stock-recruitment relationships, based on an evolutionary persistence principle

Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values.

A key to selected rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) based on mitochondrial DNA restriction fragment analysis

Larval and juvenile rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are difficult to identify using morphological characters. We developed a key based on sizes of restriction endonuclease fragments of the NADH dehydrogenase-3 and -4 (ND3/ND4) and 12S and 16S ribosomal RNA (12S/16S) mitochondrial regions. The key makes use of variation in the ND3/ND4 region. Restriction endonuclease Dde I variation can corroborate identifications, as can 12S/16S variation. The key, based on 71 species, includes most North American taxa, several Asian species, and Sebastolobus alascanus and Helicolenus hilgendorfi that are closely related to rockfishes. Fifty-eight of 71 rockfish species in our database can be distinguished unequivocally, using one to five restriction enzymes; identities of the remaining species are narrowed to small groups: 1) S. polyspinis, S. crameri, and S. ciliatus or variabilis (the two species could not be distinguished and were considered as a single species) ; 2) S. chlorostictus, S. eos, and S. rosenblatti; 3) S. entomelas and S. mystinus; 4)S. emphaeus, S. variegatus, and S. wilsoni; and 5) S. carnatus and S. chrysomelas.

Estimating the encounter rate of Atlantic capelin (Mallotus villosus) with fish eggs, based on stomach content analysis

The number of pelagic fish eggs (cod and cunner) found in stomachs of capelin (Mallotus villosus) sampled in coastal Newfoundland was used to estimate the encounter rates between capelin and prey, and thus the effective volume swept by capelin. Fish eggs were found in 4−8% of capelin stomachs, represented an average of 1% of prey by numbers, and their abundance increased as relative stomach fullness decreased. The average number of eggs per stomach doubled for each 5-cm increase in length of capelin. The effective volume swept for eggs by capelin ranged from 0.04 to 0.84 m3/h—a rate that implies either very slow capelin swimming speeds (<1 cm/s) or that fish eggs are not strongly selected as prey. The predation rate estimated from stomach contents was higher than that predicted from laboratory studies of feeding pelagic fish and lower than that predicted by a simple foraging model. It remains uncertain whether capelin play an important regulatory role in the dynamics of early life stages of other fish.

Comparison of two approaches for estimating natural mortality based on longevity

Vetter (1988) noted that her review of the estimation of the instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) was initiated by a discussion among colleagues that identified M as the single most impor ta nt but least well-estimated parameter in fishery models. A lthough much has been accomplished in the inter vening years, M remains one of the most difficult parameters to estimate in fishery stock assessments. A number of novel approaches using tagging and telemetry data provide promise for making reliable direct estimates of M for a given stock (Hearn et al., 1998 ; Frusher and Hoenig, 2001; Hightower et al., 2001; Latour et al., 2003; Pollock et al., 2004). However, such methods are often impracticable and fishery scientists must approximate M by using estimates made for other stocks of the same or similar species or by predicting M from features of the species’ life history (Beverton and Holt, 1959; Beverton, 1963; Alverson and Carney, 1975; Pauly, 1980; Hoenig, 1983; Peterson and Wroblewski, 1984; Roff, 1984; Gunderson and Dygert, 1988; Chen and Watanabe, 1989; Charnov, 1993; Jensen, 1996; Lorenzen, 1996).

Descriptions of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish Bottom Longline and Vertical Line Fisheries Based on Observer Data

In July 2006, a mandatory observer program was implemented to characterize the commercial reef fish fishery operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The primary gear types assessed included bottom longline and vertical line (bandit and handline). A total of 73,205 fish (183 taxa) were observed in the longline fishery. Most (66%) were red grouper, Epinephelus morio, and yellowedge grouper, E. flavolimbatus. In the vertical line fishery, 89,015 fish (178 taxa) were observed of which most (60%) were red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, and vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens. Based on surface observations of discarded under-sized target and unwanted species, the majority of fish were released alive; minimum assumed mortality was 23% for the vertical line and 24% for the bottom longline fishery. Of the individuals released alive in the longline fishery, 42% had visual signs of barotrauma stress (air bladder expansion/and or eyes protruding). In the vertical line fishery, 35% of the fish were released in a stressed state. Red grouper and red snapper size composition by depth and gear type were determined. Catch-per-unit-effort for dominant species in both fisheries, illustrated spatial differences in distribution between the eastern and western Gulf. Hot Spot Analyses for red grouper and red snapper identified areas with significant clustering of high or low CPUE values.

Beluga, Delphinapterus leucas, Group Sizes in Cook Inlet, Alaska, Based on Observer Counts and Aerial Video

Belugas, Delphinapterus leucas, groups were videotaped concurrent to observer counts during annual NMFS aerial surveys of Cook Inlet, Alaska, from 1994 to 2000. The videotapes provided permanent records of whale groups that could be examined and compared to group size estimates ade by aerial observers.Examination of the video recordings resulted in 275 counts of 79 whale groups. The McLaren formula was used to account for whales missed while they were underwater (average correction factor 2.03; SD=0.64). A correction for whales missed due to video resolution was developed by using a second, paired video camera that magnified images relative to the standard video. This analysis showed that some whales were missed either because their image size fell below the resolution of hte standard video recording or because two whales surfaced so close to each other that their images appeared to be one large whale. The correction method that resulted depended on knowing the average whale image size in the videotapes. Image sizes were measured for 2,775 whales from 275 different passes over whale groups. Corrected group sizes were calcualted as the product of the original count from video, the correction factor for whales missed underwater, and the correction factor for whales missed due to video resolution (averaged 1.17; SD=0.06). A regression formula was developed to estimate group sizes from aerial observer counts; independent variables were the aerial counts and an interaction term relative to encounter rate (whales per second during the counting of a group), which were regressed against the respective group sizes as calculated from the videotapes. Significant effects of encounter rate, either positive or negative, were found for several observers. This formula was used to estimate group size when video was not available. The estimated group sizes were used in the annual abundance estimates.