Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

Fish lost at sea: the effect of soak time on pelagic longline catches

Our analyses of observer records reveal that abundance estimates are strongly influenced by the timing of longline operations in relation to dawn and dusk and soak time— the amount of time that baited hooks are available in the water. Catch data will underestimate the total mortality of several species because hooked animals are “lost at sea.” They fall off, are removed, or escape from the hook before the longline is retrieved. For example, longline segments with soak times of 20 hours were retrieved with fewer skipjack tuna and seabirds than segments with soak times of 5 hours. The mortality of some seabird species is up to 45% higher than previously estimated. The effects of soak time and timing vary considerably between species. Soak time and exposure to dusk periods have strong positive effects on the catch rates of many species. In particular, the catch rates of most shark and billfish species increase with soak time. At the end of longline retrieval, for example, expected catch rates for broadbill swordfish are four times those at the beginning of retrieval. Survival of the animal while it is hooked on the longline appears to be an important factor determining whether it is eventually brought on board the vessel. Catch rates of species that survive being hooked (e.g. blue shark) increase with soak time. In contrast, skipjack tuna and seabirds are usually dead at the time of retrieval. Their catch rates decline with time, perhaps because scavengers can easily remove hooked animals that are dead. The results of our study have important implications for fishery management and assessments that rely on longline catch data. A reduction in soak time since longlining commenced in the 1950s has introduced a systematic bias in estimates of mortality levels and abundance. The abundance of species like seabirds has been over-estimated in recent years. Simple modifications to procedures for data collection, such as recording the number of hooks retrieved without baits, would greatly improve mortality estimates.

Small-boat surveys for coastal dolphins: line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Management of coastal species of small cetaceans is often impeded by a lack of robust estimates of their abundance. In the Austral summers of 1997−98, 1998−99, and 1999−2000 we conducted line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) abundance off the north, east, and south coasts of the South Island of New Zealand. Survey methods were modified for the use of a 15-m sailing catamaran, which was equipped with a collapsible sighting platform giving observers an eye-height of 6 m. Eighty-six percent of 2061 km of survey effort was allocated to inshore waters (4 nautical miles [nmi] or 7.4 km from shore), and the remainder to offshore waters (4−10 nmi or 7.4–18.5 km from shore). Transects were placed at 45° to the shore and spaced apart by 1, 2, 4, or 8 nmi according to pre-existing data on dolphin density. Survey effort within strata was uniform. Detection functions for sheltered waters and open coasts were fitted separately for each survey. The effect of attraction of dolphins to the survey vessel and the fraction of dolphins missed on the trackline were assessed with simultaneous boat and helicopter surveys in January 1999. Hector’s dolphin abundance in the coastal zone to 4 nmi offshore was calculated at 1880 individuals (CV=15.7%, log-normal 95% CI=1384−2554). These surveys are the first line-transect surveys for cetaceans in New Zealand’s coastal waters.

Wind climate trends in the Pacific Northwest and the implications to renewable energy supply

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): This paper examines the influence of wind climate variations on new Pacific Northwest renewable energy sources. Wind represents a potentially valuable supplemental source of energy in the region. ... The recent period of weaker winds may be associated with a stronger North Pacific Low in the last decade. This would result in winter storms more often being deflected farther north, to Canada. Also, in the last dozen years, lower SOI values were common. Other investigators have found low SOI to be associated with drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes.

Lake Mahega: a mesothermic, sulphato-chloride lake in western Uganda

In May, 1971, Lake Mahega had pronounced mesothermy (40.W C at one metre). Solar heating of a bloom of baeteria and the blue-green alga, Synechococcus bacillaris Butch., probably caused the high temperature. A total ionic concentration gradient increasing from 192,600 mg 1itre-1 at the surface to 415,200 mg•litre- 1 at three metres stabilized the thermally inverted water. Nearly equal amounts of chloride and sulphate accounted for about 90% of the anionic composition. Sodium was the major cation. Crystals or the triple salt, northupite (Na2 CO3. MgCO3. NaCl) and of thenardite (Na2SO4) were mixed with the surface sediment. We believe it is possible that primary northupite depnsition is occurring. Lake Mahega is also the first mesothermic, sulphato-chloride lake reported for East Africa.