37 resultados para Validation par connaissance expert
Resumo:
The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.
Age validation of great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran), determined by bomb radiocarbon analysis
Resumo:
Preliminary validation of annual growth band deposition in vertebrae of great hammerhead shark (Sphyrna mokarran) was conducted by using bomb radiocarbon analysis. Adult specimens (n=2) were collected and thin sections of vertebral centra were removed for visual aging and use in radiocarbon assays. Vertebral band counts were used to estimate age, and year of formation was assigned to each growth band by subtracting estimated age from the year of capture. A total of 10 samples were extracted from growth bands and analyzed for Δ14C. Calculated Δ14C values from dated bands were compared to known-age reference chronologies, and the resulting patterns indicated annual periodicity of growth bands up to a minimum age of 42 years. Trends in Δ14C across time in individual specimens indicated that vertebral radiocarbon is conserved through time but that habitat and diet may inf luence Δ14C levels in elasmobranchs. Although the age validation reported here must be considered preliminary because of the small sample size and narrow age range of individuals sampled, it represents the first confirmation of age in S. mokarran, further illustrating the usefulness of bomb radiocarbon analysis as a tool for life history studies in elasmobranchs.
Resumo:
We used bomb radiocarbon (14C) in this age validation study of Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus). The otoliths of Dover sole, a commercially important fish in the North Pacific, are difficult to age and ages derived from the current break-andburn method were not previously validated. The otoliths used in this study were chosen on the basis of estimated birth year and for the ease of interpreting growth zone patterns. Otolith cores, material representing years 0 through 3, were isolated and analyzed for 14C. Additionally, a small number of otoliths with difficult-to-interpret growth patterns were analyzed for 14C to help determine age interpretation. The measured Dover sole 14C values in easier-to-interpret otoliths were compared with a 14C reference chronology for Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) in the North Pacific. We used an objective statistical analysis where sums of squared residuals between otolith 14C values of Dover sole and the reference chronology were examined. Our statistical analysis also included a procedure where the Dover sole 14C values were standardized to the reference chronology. These procedures allowed an evaluation of aging error. The 14C results indicated that the Dover sole age estimates from the easier-to-interpret otoliths with the break-and-burn method are accurate. This study validated Dover sole ages from 8 to 47 years.
Resumo:
The long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) (Cuvier, 1829), was used to validate the pre-dictive accuracy of three progressively realistic models for estimating the realized annual fecundity of asyn-chronous, indeterminate, multiple spawners. Underwater surveys and catch data were used to estimate the duration of the reproductive season, female spawning frequency, male brooding frequency, and batch fecun-dity. The most realistic model, a generalization of the spawning fraction method, produced unbiased estimates of male brooding frequency (mean ±standard deviation [SD]=4.2 ±1.6 broods/year). Mean batch fecundity and realized annual fecundity were 213.9 (±110.9) and 903.6 (±522.4), respectively. However, females prepared significantly more clutches than the number of broods produced by males. Thus, methods that infer spawning frequency from patterns in female egg production may lead to significant overestimates of realized annual fecundity. The spawning fraction method is broadly applicable to many taxa that exhibit parental care and can be applied nondestructively to species for which conservation is a concern.
Resumo:
In recent years, a decrease in the abundance of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) has been observed (Fahay et al., 1999; Munch and Conover, 2000) that has led to increased interest in a better understanding the life history of the species. Estimates of several young-of-the-year (YOY) life history characteristics, including the importance and use of estuaries as nursery habitat (Kendall and Walford, 1979) and size-dependant mortality (Hare and Cowen, 1997), are reliant upon the accuracy of growth determination. By using otoliths, it is possible to use back-calculation formulae (BCFs) to estimate the length at certain ages and stages of development for many species of fishes. Use of otoliths to estimate growth in this way can provide the same information as long-term laboratory experiments and tagging studies without the time and expense of rearing or recapturing fish. The difficulty in using otoliths in this way lies in validating that 1) there is constancy in the periodicity of the increment formation, and 2) there is no uncoupling of the relationship between somatic and otolith growth. To date there are no validation studies demonstrating the relationship between otolith growth and somatic growth for bluefish. Daily increment formation in otoliths has been documented for larval (Hare and Cowen, 1994) and juvenile bluefish (Nyman and Conover, 1988). Hare and Cowen (1995) found ageindependent variability in the ratio of otolith size to body length in early age bluefish, although these differences varied between ontogenetic stages. Furthermore, there have been no studies where an evaluation of back-calculation methods has been combined with a validation of otolithderived lengths for juvenile bluefish.
Resumo:
The gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) is a temperate and tropical reef fish that is found along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. The recreational fishery for gray snapper has developed rapidly in south Louisiana with the advent of harvest and seasonal restrictions on the established red snapper (L. campechanus) fishery. We examined the age and growth of gray snapper in Louisiana with the use of cross-sectioned sagittae. A total of 833 specimens, (441 males, 387 females, and 5 of unknown sex) were opportunistically sampled from the recreational fishery from August 1998 to August 2002. Males ranged in size from 222 to 732 mm total length (TL) and from 280 g to 5700 g total weight (TW) and females ranged from 254 to 756 mm TL and from 340 g to 5800 g TW. Both edge analysis and bomb radiocarbon analyses were used to validate otolith-based age estimates. Ages were estimated for 718 individuals; both males and females ranged from 1 to 28 years. The von Bertalanffy growth models derived from TL at age were Lt = 655.4{1–e[–0.23(t)]} for males, Lt = 657.3{1–e[– 0.21(t)]} for females, and L t = 656.4{1–e[– 0.22 (t)]} for all specimens of known sex. Catch curves were used to produce a total mortality (Z) estimate of 0.17. Estimates of M calculated with various methods ranged from 0.15 to 0.50; however we felt that M= 0.15 was the most appropriate estimate based on our estimate of Z. Full recruitment to the gray snapper recreational fishery began at age 4, was completed by age 8, and there was no discernible peak in the catch curve dome.
Resumo:
Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) support one of the most economically important f isheries of the Pacific Northwest and it is essential for sustainable management that age estimation procedures be validated for these species. Atmospheric testing of thermonuclear devices during the 1950s and 1960s created a global radiocarbon (14C) signal in the ocean environment that scientists have identified as a useful tracer and chronological marker in natural systems. In this study, we first demonstrated that fewer samples are necessary for age validation using the bomb-generated 14C signal by emphasizing the utility of the time-specific marker created by the initial rise of bomb-14C. Second, the bomb-generated 14C signal retained in fish otoliths was used to validate the age and age estimation method of the quillback rockfish (Sebastes maliger) in the waters of southeast Alaska. Radiocarbon values from the first year’s growth of quillback rockfish otoliths were plotted against estimated birth year to produce a 14C time series spanning 1950 to 1985. The initial rise in bomb-14C from prebomb levels (~ –90‰) occurred in 1959 [±1 year] and 14C levels rose relatively rapidly to peak Δ14C values in 1967 (+105.4‰) and subsequently declined through the end of the time series in 1985 (+15.4‰). The agreement between the year of initial rise of 14C levels from the quillback rockfish time series and the chronology determined for the waters of southeast Alaska from yelloweye rockfish (S. ruberrimus) otoliths validated the aging method for the quillback rockfish. The concordance of the entire quillback rockfish 14C time series with the yelloweye rockfish time series demonstrated the effectiveness of this age validation technique, confirmed the longevity of the quillback rockfish up to a minimum of 43 years, and strongly confirms higher age estimates of up
Resumo:
Two examples of indirect validation are described for age-reading methods of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Aging criteria that exclude faint translucent zones (checks) in counts of annuli and criteria that include faint zones were both tested. Otoliths from marked and recaptured fish were used to back-calculate the length of each fish at the time of its release by using measurements of the area of annuli. Estimated fish size at time of release and actual observed fish size were similar, supporting the assumption that translucent zones are laid down on an annual basis. A second method for validating reading criteria used otolith age and von Bertalanffy parameters, estimated from the tagging data, to predict how much each fish grew in length after tagging. We found that otolith aging criteria applied to otoliths from tagged and recovered Pacific cod predicted quite accurately the growth increments that we observed in these specimens. These results provide further evidence that the current aging criteria are not underestimating the age of the fish and support our current interpretation of checks (i.e., as subannual marks). We expect these indirect validations to advance age determination for Pacific cod, which in turn would enhance development of stock assessment methods based on age structure for this species in the eastern Bering Sea.
Resumo:
Age estimates for striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) from Tasmanian waters were produced by counting annuli on the transverse section of sagittal otoliths and were validated by comparison of growth with known-age individuals and modal progression of a strong recruitment pulse. Estimated ages ranged from one to 43 years; fast growth rates were observed for the first five years. Minimal sexual dimorphism was shown to exist between length, weight, and growth characteristics of striped trumpeter. Seasonal growth variability was strong in individuals up to at least age four, and growth rates peaked approximately one month after the observed peak in sea surface temperature. A modified two-phase von Bertalanffy growth function was fitted to the length-at-age data, and the transition between growth phases was linked to apparent changes in physiological and life history traits, including offshore movement as fish approach maturity. The two-phase curve was found to represent the mean length at age in the data better than the standard von Bertalanffy growth function. Total mortality was estimated by using catch curve analysis based on the standard and two-phase von Bertalanffy growth functions, and estimates of natural mortality were calculated by using two empirical models, one based on longevity and the other based on the parameters L∞ and k from both growth functions. The interactions between an inshore gillnet fishery targeting predominately juveniles and an offshore hook fishery targeting predominately adults highlight the need to use a precautionary approach when developing harvest strategies.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to validate aging results of juvenile Shortfin Mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) by vertebral band counts. Vertebrae of 29 juvenile Shortfin Mako marked with oxytetracycline (OTC) were obtained from tag-recapture activities to determine centrum growth-band deposition. Tagging occurred off southern California from 1996 to 2010, and time at liberty of the 29 sharks ranged from 4 months to 4.4 years (mean=1.3 years). Growth information also was obtained from length-frequency modal analyses (MULTIFAN and MIXDIST) by using a 29-year data set of commercial and research catch data, in addition to a tag-recapture growth model (e.g, the GROTAG model). For vertebrae samples used for age validation, shark size at time of release ranged from 79 to 142 cm fork length (FL) and from 98 to 200 cm FL at recapture. Results from band counts of vertebrae distal to OTC marks indicate 2 band pairs (2 translucent and 2 opaque) are formed each year for Shortfin Mako of the size range examined. Length-frequency analyses identified 3 age class modes. Growth rate estimates from 26.5 to 35.5 cm/year were calculated for the first age-class mode (85 cm FL) and from 22.4 to 28.6 cm/year for the second age-class mode (130 cm FL). Results from the tag-recapture growth model revealed fast growth during time at liberty for tagged fish of the 2 youngest age classes. Collectively, these methods suggest rapid growth of juvenile Shortfin Mako in the southern California study area and indicate biannual deposition of growth bands in vertebrae for the first 5 years.
Resumo:
A competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) was developed by using a whole-cell antigen from a marine Brucella sp. isolated from a harbor seal (Phoca vitulina). The assay was designed to screen sera from multiple marine mammal species for the presence of antibodies against marine-origin Brucella. Based on comparisons with culture-confirmed cases, specificity and sensitivity for cetacean samples tested were 73% and 100%, respectively. For pinniped samples, specificity and sensitivity values were 77% and 67%, respectively. Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi; n = 28) and bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus; n = 48) serum samples were tested, and the results were compared with several other assays designed to detect Brucella abortus antibodies. The comparison testing revealed the marine-origin cELISA to be more sensitive than the B. abortus tests by the detection of additional positive serum samples. The newly developed cELISA is an effective serologic method for detection of the presence of antibodies against marine-origin Brucella sp. in marine mammals.