Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Marine flora and fauna of the Eastern United States Anthozoa: Acitniaria, Corallimorpharia, Ceriantharia, and Zoanthidea

This key includes 60 species of sea anemones and their relatives in the orders Actiniaria, Corallimorpharia, Ceriantharia, and Zoanthidea. Species from the intertidal zone, continental slope, and deep sea are included over a geographic range from Atlantic Canada to approximately South Carolina. In addition to the illustrated key itself, characteristics of each species are summarized in tabular form, including morphology, distribution, and types and sizes of cnidae. Ecological and taxonomic information on each species are also included in an annotated species list. (PDF file contains 76 pages.)

Quantitative composition and distribution of the macrobenthic invertebrate fauna of the Continental Shelf ecosystems of the Northeastern United States

From the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's a series of quantitative surveys of the macrobenthic invertebrate fauna were conducted in the offshore New England region (Maine to Long Island, New York). The surveys were designed to 1) obtain measures of macrobenthic standing crop expressed in terms of density and biomass; 2) determine the taxonomic composition of the fauna (ca. 567 species); 3) map the general features of macrobenthic distribution; and 4) evaluate the fauna's relationships to water depth, bottom type, temperature range, and sediment organic carbon content. A total of 1,076 samples, ranging from 3 to 3,974 m in depth, were obtained and analyzed. The aggregate macrobenthic fauna consists of 44 major taxonomic groups (phyla, classes, orders). A striking fact is that only five of those groups (belonging to four phyla) account for over 80% of both total biomass and number of individuals of the macrobenthos. The five dominant groups are Bivalvia, Annelida, Amphipoda, Echninoidea, and Holothuroidea. Other salient features pertaining to the macrobenthos of the region are the following: substantial differences in quantity exist among different geographic subareas within the region, but with a general trend that both density and biomass increase from northeast to southwest; both density and biomass decrease with increasing depth; the composition of the bottom sediments significantly influences both the kind and quantity of macrobenthic invertebrates, the largest quantities of both measures of abundance occurring in the coarser grained sediments and diminishing with decreasing particle size; areas with marked seasonal changes in water temperature support an abundant and diverse fauna, whereas a uniform temperature regime is associated with a sparse, less diverse fauna; and no detectable trends are evident in the quantitative composition of the macrobenthos in relation to sediment organic carbon content. (PDF file contains 246 pages.)

Marine Flora and Fauna of the Eastern United States: Platyhelminthes: Monogenea

(PDF file contains 112 pages.)

Marine Flora and Fauna of the Eastern United States: Dicyemida

This manual treats the six species of dicyemid mesozoans that have been reported in three species of hosts (Octopus vulgaris, O. joubini, and O. briareus) from the eastern coast of North America and the Gulf of Mexico, including the Florida Keys. All are parasites of species of Octopus and are in the genus Dicyema, family Dicyemidae. In the introduction, the life cycle, as known, and the general morphology of dicyemids are briefly described, and methods are given for collecting and preparing material for study. These are followed by a key to species and by an annotated checklist, which includes data, some hitherto unpublished, on their known prevalence in hosts from various localities including Bimini and Bermuda.(PDF file contains 20 pages.)

Marine Flora and Fauna of the Northeastern United States Echinodermata: Crinoidea

The crinoid fauna of the continental margin (0-1500 m) of northeastern North America (Georgia to Canada) includes 14 species in 13 genera and 5 families. We introduce the external morphology and natural history of crinoids and include a glossary of terms, an illustrated key to local taxa, annotated systematic list, and an index. The fauna includes 2 species found no further south than New England and 8 that occur no further north than the Carolinas and Blake Plateau. Comactinia meridionalis (Agassiz) is the only species commonly found in shallow water «50 m). No taxa are endemic to the area. (PDF file contains 34 pages.)

Benthic macrofauna and habitat monitoring on the Continental Shelf of the northeastern United States: I. Biomass

Information on long-term temporal variability of and trends in benthic community-structure variables, such as biomass, is needed to estimate the range of normal variability in comparison with the effects of environmental change or disturbance. Fishery resource distribution and population growth will be influenced by such variability. This study examines benthic macrofaunal biomass and related data collected annually between 1978 and 1985 at 27 sites on the continental shelf of the northwestern Atlantic, from North Carolina to the southern Gulf of Maine. The study was expanded at several sites with data from other studies collected at the same sites prior to 1978. Results indicate that although there was interannual and seasonal variability, as expected, biomass levels over the study period showed few clear trends. Sites exhibiting trends were either in pollution-stressed coastal areas or influenced by the population dynamics of one or a few species, especially echinoderms. (PDF file contains 34 pages.)

Species composition, distribution, and relative abundance of fishes in the coastal habitat off the southeastern United States

Ichthyofauna of the coastal «10 m depth) habitat of the South Atlantic Bight were investigated between Cape Fear, North Carolina, and the St. John's River, Florida. Trawl collections from four nonconsecutive seasons in the period July 1980 to December 1982 indicated that the fish community is dominated by the family Sciaenidae, particularly juvenile forms. Spot (Leiostomus xanthurus) and Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) were the two most abundant species and dominated catches during all seasons. Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortin tyrannus) was also very abundant, but only seasonally (winter and spring) dominant in the catches. Elasmobranch fIShes, especially rajiforms and carcharinids, contributed to much of the biomass of fishes collected. Total fish abundance was greatest in winter and lowest in summer and was influenced by the seasonality of Atlantic menhaden and Atlantic croaker in the catches. Biomass was highest in spring and lowest in summer, and was influenced by biomass of spot. Fish density ranged from 321 individuals and 12.2 kg per hectare to 746 individuals and 25.2 kg per hectare. Most species ranged widely throughout the bight, and showed some evidence of seasonal migration. Species assemblages were dominated by ubiquitous year-round residents of the coastal waters of the bight. Diversity (H') was highest in summer, and appeared influenced by the evenness of distribution of individuals among species. (PDF file contains 56 pages.)

Marine flora and fauna of the eastern United States Mollusca: Cephalopoda

The cephalopods found in neritic waters of the northeastern United States include myopsid and oegopsid squids, sepiolid squids, and octopods. A key with diagnostic illustrations is provided to aid in identification of the eleven species common in the neritic waters between Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia; included also is information on two oceanic species that occur over the continental shelf in this area and that can be confused with similar-looking neritic species. Other sections comprise a glossary of taxonomic characters used for identification of these species, an annotated systematic checklist, and checklists of the 89 other oceanic species and 18 Carolinian and subtropical neritic species that might occur occasionally off the northeastern United States. (PDF file contains 30 pages.)

Marine flora and fauna of the northeastern United States. Echinodermata: Echinoidea

The echinoid fauna from littoral to abyssal depths off the northeastern United States (Cape Hatteras, NC, to northern Nova Scotia) comprises 31 species, in 26 genera and 19 families. An introduction to the external morphology, distribution, and natural history is given along with an illustrated key to the species, an annotated systematic list, and an index. The fauna Includes 17 species with wide-ranging distributions on continental slopes or abyssal plains. The remaining 14 species occur in shallower waters on the continental shelf or upper slope. Of these, eight are tropical in distribution with their northern range extending to the northeastern United States and three are mainly boreal with the northeastern United States at the southern limit of their range. Two species occur only off the eastern United States and one species is cosmopolitan. (PDF file contains 33 pages.)

Configurations and relative efficiencies of shrimp trawls employed in southeastern United States waters

Common shrimp trawl designs employed in the southeastern United States shrimp fishery are the flat, balloon, semiballoon, jib, and super X-3. Recent innovations in trawl design and rigging, including the twin trawl rigging and tongue trawl design, have improved the efficiency of shrimp trawling gear. A description of the construction techniques for the different designs indicate differences which affect gear performance. Measurements of horizontal spread and vertical opening for 76 trawl configurations indicate the relative efficiencies of the different designs. Maximum horizontal spreading efficiency was achieved by the "twin" and "tongue" trawl designs followed by the super X-3, jib, balloon, and semiballoon designs. Designs having the greatest vertical openings were the tongue and flat trawl designs followed by the semiballoon. Maximum total gape dimension was demonstrated by the "Mongoose" tongue trawl. Comparison of trawl spreading efficiency and door area to headrope length ratio indicates that a range of 70-80 in square (per door) of door area is required for each foot of trawl headrope length for maximum efficiency with conventional trawl designs and 66-75 in square per foot of headrope for tongue trawl designs. (PDF file contains 18 pages.)

National perspectives on climate change adaptation: A panel discussion of climate change adaptation efforts in diverse coastal regions of the United States

Climate change has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to coastal areas around the world. While uncertainty regarding distribution, intensity, and timescale inhibits our ability to accurately forecast potential impacts, it is widely accepted that changes in global climate will result in a variety of significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise, and coastal communities must develop the capacity to adapt to climate change in order to protect people, property, and the environment along our nation’s coasts. The U.S. coastal zone is highly complex and variable, consisting of several regions that are characterized by unique geographic, economic, social and environmental factors. The degree of risk and vulnerability associated with climate change can vary greatly depending on the exposure and sensitivity of coastal resources within a given area. The ability of coastal communities to effectively adapt to climate change will depend greatly on their ability to develop and implement feasible strategies that address unique local and regional factors. A wide variety of resources are available to assist coastal states in developing their approach to climate change adaptation. However, given the complex and variable nature of the U.S. coastline, it is unlikely that a single set of guidelines can adequately address the full range of adaptation needs at the local and regional levels. This panel seeks to address some of the unique local and regional issues facing coastal communities throughout the U.S. including anticipated physical, social, economic and environmental impacts, existing resources and guidelines for climate change adaptation, current approaches to climate change adaptation planning, and challenges and opportunities for developing adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Revealing the appetite of the marine aquarium fish trade: the volume and biodiversity of fish imported into the United States

The aquarium trade and other wildlife consumers are at a crossroads forced by threats from global climate change and other anthropogenic stressors that have weakened coastal ecosystems. While the wildlife trade may put additional stress on coral reefs, it brings income into impoverished parts of the world and may stimulate interest in marine conservation. To better understand the influence of the trade, we must first be able to quantify coral reef fauna moving through it. Herein, we discuss the lack of a data system for monitoring the wildlife aquarium trade and analyze problems that arise when trying to monitor the trade using a system not specifically designed for this purpose. To do this, we examined an entire year of import records of marine tropical fish entering the United States in detail, and discuss the relationship between trade volume, biodiversity and introduction of non-native marine fishes. Our analyses showed that biodiversity levels are higher than previous estimates. Additionally, more than half of government importation forms have numerical or other reporting discrepancies resulting in the overestimation of trade volumes by 27%. While some commonly imported species have been introduced into the coastal waters of the USA (as expected), we also found that some uncommon species in the trade have also been introduced. This is the first study of aquarium trade imports to compare commercial invoices to government forms and provides a means to, routinely and in real time, examine the biodiversity of the trade in coral reef wildlife species.

Using productivity and susceptibility indices to assess the vulnerability of United States fish stocks to overfishing

Assessing the vulnerability of stocks to fishing practices in U.S. federal waters was recently highlighted by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as an important factor to consider when 1) identifying stocks that should be managed and protected under a fishery management plan; 2) grouping data-poor stocks into relevant management complexes; and 3) developing precautionary harvest control rules. To assist the regional fishery management councils in determining vulnerability, NMFS elected to use a modified version of a productivity and susceptibility analysis (PSA) because it can be based on qualitative data, has a history of use in other fisheries, and is recommended by several organizations as a reasonable approach for evaluating risk. A number of productivity and susceptibility attributes for a stock are used in a PSA and from these attributes, index scores and measures of uncertainty are computed and graphically displayed. To demonstrate the utility of the resulting vulnerability evaluation, we evaluated six U.S. fisheries targeting 162 stocks that exhibited varying degrees of productivity and susceptibility, and for which data quality varied. Overall, the PSA was capable of differentiating the vulnerability of stocks along the gradient of susceptibility and productivity indices, although fixed thresholds separating low-, moderate-, and highly vulnerable species were not observed. The PSA can be used as a flexible tool that can incorporate regional-specific information on fishery and management activity.

Cross-shelf and seasonal variation in larval fish assemblages on the southeast United States continental shelf off the coast of Georgia

Seasonal and cross-shelf patterns were investigated in larval fish assemblages on the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia. The influence of environmental factors on larval distributions also was examined, and larval transport processes on the shelf were considered. Ichthyoplankton and environmental data were collected approximately every other month from spring 2000 to winter 2002. Ten stations were repeatedly sampled along a 110-km cross-shelf transect, including four stations in the vicinity of Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary. Correspondence analysis (CA) on untransformed community data identified two seasonal (warm weather [spring, summer, and fall] and winter) and three cross-shelf larval assemblages (inner-, mid-, and outer-shelf ). Five environmental factors (temperature, salinity, density, depth of the water column, and stratification) were related to larval cross-shelf distribution. Specifically, increased water column stratification was associated with the outer-shelf assemblage in spring, summer, and fall. The inner shelf assemblage was associated with generally lower temperatures and lower salinities in the spring and summer and higher salinities in the winter. The three cross-shelf regions indicated by the three assemblages coincided with the location of three primary water masses on the shelf. However, taxa occurring together within an assemblage were transported to different parts of the shelf; thus, transport across the continental shelf off the coast of Georgia cannot be explained solely by twodimensional physical factors.