An integrated approach for evaluating coastal vulnerability in a changing climate

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion threaten many coastal communities and ecosystems. With documented increases in both storm frequency and intensity and projected acceleration of sea level rise, incorporating the impacts of climate change and variability into coastal vulnerability assessments is becoming a necessary, yet challenging task. We are developing an integrated approach to probabilistically incorporate the impacts of climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments via a multi-scale, multi-hazard methodology. By examining the combined hazards of episodic flooding/inundation and storm induced coastal change with chronic trends under a range of future climate change scenarios, a quantitative framework can be established to promote more sciencebased decision making in the coastal zone. Our focus here is on an initial application of our method in southern Oregon, United States. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Improving reporting of uncertainties in sea level rise assessments

Sea level rise (SLR) assessments are commonly used to identify the extent that coastal populations are at risk to flooding. However, the data and assumptions used to develop these assessments contain numerous sources and types of uncertainty, which limit confidence in the accuracy of modeled results. This study illustrates how the intersection of uncertainty in digital elevation models (DEMs) and SLR lead to a wide range of modeled outcomes. SLR assessments are then reviewed to identify the extent that uncertainty is documented in peer-reviewed articles. The paper concludes by discussing priorities needed to further understand SLR impacts. (PDF contains 4 pages)

What is coastal climate?

Historical definitions of what determines whether one lives in a coastal area or not have varied over time. According to Culliton (1998), a “coastal county” is defined as a county with at least 15% of its total land area located within a nation’s coastal watershed. This emphasizes the land areas within which water flows into the ocean or Great Lakes, but may be better suited for ecosystems or water quality research (Crowell et al. 2007). Some Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) documents suggest that “coastal” includes shoreline-adjacent coastal counties, and perhaps even counties impacted by flooding from coastal storms. An accurate definition of “coastal” is critical in this regard since FEMA uses such definitions to revise and modernize their Flood Insurance Rate Maps (Crowell et al. 2007). A recent map published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coastal Services Center for the Coastal Change Analysis Program shows that the “coastal” boundary covers the entire state of New York and Michigan, while nearly all of South Carolina is considered “coastal.” The definition of “coastal” one chooses can have major implications, including a simple count of coastal population and the influence of local or state coastal policies. There is, however, one aspect of defining what is “coastal” that has often been overlooked; using atmospheric long-term climate variables to define the inland extent of the coastal zone. This definition, which incorporates temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity, is furthermore scalable and globally applicable - even in the face of shifting shorelines. A robust definition using common climate variables should condense the large broad definition often associated with “coastal” such that completely landlocked locations would no longer be considered “coastal.” Moreover, the resulting definition, “coastal climate” or “climatology of the coast”, will help coastal resource managers make better-informed decisions on a wide range of climatologically-influenced issues. The following sections outline the methodology employed to derive some new maps of coastal boundaries in the United States. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal community hazard mitigation and community rating system of NFIP

Storm force flooding continues to be a major concern in the hurricane season and causes considerable loss to the coastal communities. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provides recovery resources for the flood disaster and dissuades uneconomic uses from locating in flood hazard area. In order to motivate flood insurance purchase and promote increased flood hazard mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) that is a part of NFIP, credits 18 community floodplain management activities. However, CRS has been marked by a lack of active participation since its inception limiting its potential effectiveness. As of January 2008, 1080 communities, representing only 5% of all the NFIP communities have enrolled in CRS. Little empirical evidence exists to shed light on what factors influence the establishment of local hazard mitigation projects. To fill this gap, we propose to analyze flood hazard mitigation projects in 37 North Carolina coastal counties between 2002 and 2008. Specifically, we will examine the influence of physical, risk, and socioeconomic factors on coastal community hazard mitigation decisions as reflected in the CRS score. Ultimately, our project will forge a better understanding of community decision making, as related to natural hazards. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Poverty alleviation among fishermen within the floodplains of Kaduna River: implication for introducing commercial fish farming at village level in Doko local government area of Niger State, Nigeria

A diagnostic survey was conducted among the fishermen in six selected villages in Doko Local Government Area of Niger State. One hundred and fifty fishermen were randomly selected and interviewed to find out whether or not they had interest in commercial fish farming aimed at improving their livelihood. The dwindling fish catches in the natural flood plain ponds and Ex-bow Lakes continue to have a serious negative effect on the socio-economic well being of the village communities in question. A break on natural regular annual flooding of the plains had resulted into very low natural fish recruitment. Data analysis using simple descriptive statistics revealed that land tenure system, educational status, inadequate infrastructural facilities, religious taboos, existing fish species among others were found to be favourable indices for commercial fish farming. However, serious conflicts among the fishermen concerning the ownership status of these natural fish ponds are found to be major obstacles to commercial fish farming despite that the traditional ownership of the ponds were vested in the lands of individuals and village communities. Extensive fish farming and small-scale fish farming in the ponds and Ex-bow Lake with improved management practices are considered to be profitable venture. Despite the fact that fish seeds supply and extension effort are still inadequate, the fish farmers have indicated willingness to adopt commercial fish farming in the Ex-bow Lakes and flood plains in order to restore abundant fish production thereby providing for their food security and also increasing the daily income

The macroinvertebrate fauna of pools in the floodplain (fadama) of the Anambra River, Nigeria

The Anambra River is the largest tributary of the lower Niger River below Lukoja. Between the months of May and November the river is subject to seasonal flooding from heavy precipitation and land runoff into the drainage system. During the flood phase, pools form on the floodplains (known as the fadama) and these pools receive materials and biota from the main river channel. The biota often includes representatives of freshwater vertebrates (including fishes) and invertebrates. On this brief note, the authors report on the macroinvertebrates found during preliminary studies on four fadama pools during the non-flood season between December 1994 and April 1995. 523 specimens were collected, of which 86% were arthropods, 9% were annelids (mostly Tubifex and Nais) and a few leeches (Hirudo), and 5% were gastropod molluscs of the arthropods, 75% were insects particularly Hemiptera and Diptera.

Use of Artificial Eelgrass Mats by Saltmarsh-Nesting Common Terns (Sterna hirundo)

Terns and skimmers nesting on saltmarsh islands often suffer large nest losses due to tidal and storm flooding. Nests located near the center of an island and on wrack (mats of dead vegetation, mostly eelgrass Zostera) are less susceptible to flooding than those near the edge of an island and those on bare soil or in saltmarsh cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora). In the 1980’s Burger and Gochfeld constructed artificial eelgrass mats on saltmarsh islands in Ocean County, New Jersey. These mats were used as nesting substrate by common terns (Sterna hirundo) and black skimmers (Rynchops niger). Every year since 2002 I have transported eelgrass to one of their original sites to make artificial mats. This site, Pettit Island, typically supports between 125 and 200 pairs of common terns. There has often been very little natural wrack present on the island at the start of the breeding season, and in most years natural wrack has been most common along the edges of the island. The terns readily used the artificial mats for nesting substrate. Because I placed artificial mats in the center of the island, the terns have often avoided the large nest losses incurred by terns nesting in peripheral locations. However, during particularly severe flooding events even centrally located nests on mats are vulnerable. Construction of eelgrass mats represents an easy habitat manipulation that can improve the nesting success of marsh-nesting seabirds.

Comparative drift studies on streams in lower Austria (Flysch, gneiss and chalk formations) [Translation from: Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Hydrobiologie 30 138-185, 1968.]

Seasonal changes and flooding have an extraordinarily great influence on the drift of organisms. The free water space plays the main part in the provision of food for some fish (Salmo trutta - trout): drift and content of the stomach are balanced here (Simuliidae): whereas others (Thymallus vulgaris) only selectively chose certain animals living at the bottom (molluscs). The total drift, drift of organisms and drift of organic material and minerals, plays a main role in the rate of production in streams. Besides the biology of the organisms living on the river bed, also the geological and hydrographical situation of the area plays a very important role for the composition of the drift. During the years 1964-1966 three streams in the characteristical geological formations flysch, gneiss and chalk of lower Austria were studied in regard to their drift. The Tulln (above St. Christopen), the Krems (above Senftenberg) and the Schwarza (above Hirschwang) seemed to be ideal for this comparative study because they are easy to reach. After summarising the hydrography and chemistry of examined rivers, the author examines the relationship between water level and total drift and the stratification of the total drift before analysing the drift of living organisms. Also considered are seasonal changes of drift of organisms and drift of exuviae.

On the number of generations of tendipes in collective ponds in Kuibyshchevskoi district [Translation from: C.R. Acad.Sci. U.R.S.S. 95, 1113-1115, 1954]

Three ponds were chosen for this study. The two lower ones were of 2 - 4 hectares in area, the depth of the littoral zone was 2.5 - 3 metres at the time of maximum flooding and the mud which covered the floor of the ponds was homogeneous and autochthonous in nature with very few vegetable remnants. The ponds which were originally set up in 1950. were intended for water supply and populated with Crucian Carp (for human consumption). A survey was done in the ponds in order to establish number and biomass of Tendipes semireductus. The author concludes that in these ponds T.semireductus has 2-3 generations per year.

Scientific investigations into the eutrophication of the Norfolk Broads

The word ”Broads” is used to describe a series of relatively shallow lakes resulting from the flooding of medieval peat diggings. Broadland is essentially freshwater, but because the rivers have such low gradients the lower reaches are brackish. The influence of tide is particularly apparent on the River Yare; in Norwich 40 km from the sea there is a vertical movement of half a metre at spring tide. This study examines the problems that the broadlands are facing. The problems are basically the progressive loss of aquatic plants, in particular the macro- phytes, animal life, outbreaks of avian botulism, occasional fish kills due to a toxin produced by the blue-green alga Prymesium parvum and the emergence of very heavy algal blooms. The main factor for the deteriation of the Broaslands is the eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs, in particular of nitrates and phosphates, from a variety of sources. The most important of these are sewage effluents, agricultural drainage, which includes fertilisers and nutrient rich effluents from piggeries and dairy un

Clam farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The Mekong Delta region in southern Vietnam has high potential for coastal aquaculture, including mollusc culture. Many mollusc species are cultured for domestic and export markets including white clam (Meretrix lyrata Showerby) and blood cockle (Arca granosa). Techniques for clam farming include the nursery and grow-out phases. At present, there are approximately 600 coastal families engaged in clam farming over a total area of 1,870 ha, of which 82.63% is used for the grow-out phased and 17.7% for the nursery phase. Nursery areas are near the coast and receive less than 5 hours of sunlight per day. The average area for a nursery is 3-4 ha and it is fenced with a net or bamboo stakes to prevent clams from escaping and to prevent water currents from carrying them away. Grow-out farm areas are further from the coast and are exposed to sunlight for only 2-3 hours/day. Average farm area for grow-out is 5-6 ha, and may or may not be fenced. Average operating cost is US$1100 per ha for nursery and US$757 per ha for grow-out (the cost of capital assets are not included) with loans being the main source of financial. Problems for clam farmers in the area include natural phenomena, inadequate culture techniques, lack of financing or credit systems, and marketing. Environment-related problems that cause clam mortality include flooding, and freshwater effluent and siltation or sedimentation from Mekong River. Other problems that constrain the development of clam culture in the area are: marketing problems such as lack of buyers and price fluctuations; exploitation of the natural clam populations.

Autonomous adaptation to climate change by shrimp and catfish farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong River delta

The Mekong River delta of Vietnam supports a thriving aquaculture industry but is exposed to the impacts of climate change. In particular, sea level rise and attendant increased flooding (both coastal and riverine) and coastal salinity intrusion threaten the long-term viability of this important industry. This working paper summarizes an analysis of the economics of aquaculture adaptation in the delta, focusing on the grow-out of two exported aquaculture species—the freshwater striped catfish and the brackish-water tiger shrimp. The analysis was conducted for four pond-based production systems: catfish in the inland and coastal provinces and improved extensive and semi-intensive/intensive shrimp culture.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

This report is an account of a cross-country study that covered Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Covering four sites (one each in Indonesia and Vietnam) and two sites in the Philippines, the study documented the impacts of three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, as well as autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques, ranging from participatory based approaches such as community hazard mapping and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques, to analyze the impact of climate change and the behavior of affected communities and households.