Decision analysis applied to the fishery of the sea snail Concholepas concholepas from central northern coast of Chile

Formal decision analysis was applied to the management of loco (Concholepas concholepas, Fam. Muricidae) in Chile, 29-35 degrees S. Four interested groups were considered "Fishers", "Scientists", "Buyers" and the "State", along with three fishing effort levels and four subobjectives. The method was found to encourage the emergence of a consensus (here: halving of effort), and is recommended for use in other fisheries.

Untrawlable Bottom in Shrimp Statistical Zones of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico Fisheries Management Council tasked the National Marine Fisheries Service with determining the extent, if any, of loss oft rawlable bottom in the Gulf of Mexico based upon fishing industry concerns. There are approximately 31 million hectares in the 21 shrimp statistical zones in the Gulf, approximately 23 million hectares of waters that are <35 fathoms (where most shrimp trawling effort occurs), and approximately 11 million hectares in zones 10-21, <35f athoms, which were examined. There are 31,338 known hangs, snags, artificial reefs, hazards to navigation, oil rigs, and similar obstructions which cause trawling to be unfeasible in these zones. There are several refuge (i.e. untrawlable) areas associated with the Alabama Artificial Reefs. Conservatively assuming 1 hectare for each known obstruction, coupled with the known area of each refuge, the estimate of total untrawlable bottom in zones 10-21 less than 35 fathoms in the Gulf is 185,953 hectares, or roughly 1.7% of this total trawlable area. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of this assumption, with a range of 0.3-4.3% possible. In specific shrimp zones, untrawlable area is much less than 1% except in zones 10 (26%) and 11(2.5%), both of which possess a refuge. Other than the implementation periods of these refugia, no temporal trends were detectable with respect to the amount of untrawlable bottom.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Coastal Ecosystem Assessment Program: a manual of methods

Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.

Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling: Final report. [Digital Supplements A-G attached]

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.