A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

Spatial and temporal distribution of grouper larvae (Serranidae: Epinephelinae: Epinephelini) in the Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida

Little is known about the seasonality and distribution of grouper larvae (Serranidae: Epinephelini) in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast United States. Grouper larvae were collected from a transect across the Straits of Florida in 2003 and 2004 and during the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program spring and fall surveys from 1982 through 2005. Analysis of these larval data provided information on location and timing of spawning, larval distribution patterns, and interannual occurrence for a group of species not easily studied as adults. Our analyses indicated that shelf-edge habitat is important for spawning of many species of grouper—some species for which data were not previously available. Spawning for some species may occur year-round, but two peak seasons are evident: late winter and late summer through early fall. Interannual variability in the use of three important subregions by species or groups of species was partially explained by environmental factors (surface temperature, surface salinity, and water depth). A shift in species dominance over the last three decades from spring-spawned species (most of the commercial species) to fall-spawned species also was documented. The results of these analyses expand our understanding of the basic distribution and spawning patterns of northwest Atlantic grouper species and indicate a need for further examination of the changing population structure of individual species and species dominance in the region.

Spatial and seasonal relationships between Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) and their prey, at multiple scales

Knowing where pinnipeds forage is vital to managing and protecting their populations, and for assessing potential interactions with fisheries. We assessed the spatial relationship between the seasonal distribution of Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) outfitted with satellite transmitters and the seasonal distributions of potential harbor seal prey species in San Francisco Bay, California. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were calculated between the number of harbor seal locations in an area of the San Francisco Bay and the abundance of specific prey species in the same area. The influence of scale on the analyses was assessed by varying the scale of analysis from 1 to 10 km. There was consistency in the prey species targeted by harbor seals year-round, although there were seasonal differences between the most important prey species. The highest correlations between harbor seals and their prey were found for seasonally abundant benthic species, located within about 10 km of the primary haul-out site. Probable foraging habitat for harbor seals was identified, based on areas with high abundances of prey species that were strongly correlated with harbor seal distribution. With comparable local data inputs, this approach has potential application to pinniped management in other areas, and to decisions about the location of marine reserves designed to protect these species.

Spatial and temporal variability in the relative contribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) stocks to winter mixed fisheries off South Florida

King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should

Preliminary Analysis of the Feasibility of Transferring New Longline Technology to Small Artisanal Vessels off Northeastern Brazil

The catches of three longliners, including two recently converted small artisanal vessels and one large leased foreign longliner, were compared to provide some indication of the feasibility of transferring new longline technology to small vessels in the northeastern Brazilian pelagic longline fishery. Comparisons of catches between the two recently converted vessels operating across the same spatial and temporal scales showed no significant differences for the main target species, providing evidence to suggest that adoption of the technology was rapid and straightforward. A comparison of relative catch rates between one of the recently converted small longliners and the leased longliner across the same temporal scale, but in different areas, showed that while there were significant differences detected for some species, contributing to a significant reduction in total CPUE, the relative abundance of commercially important species within the operational range of the smaller vessels was sufficient for economically viable catches. The results showed that the net financial profit from the artisanal longliner was almost 10 times greater than that derived from existing fishing methods. The inclusion of some artisanal vessels in this fishery may help address the social and economic problems currently faced by fi

Spatial coherence and persistence in annual streamflow in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.

Multiscale analysis of factors that affect the distribution of sharks throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico

Identification of the spatial scale at which marine communities are organized is critical to proper management, yet this is particularly difficult to determine for highly migratory species like sharks. We used shark catch data collected during 2006–09 from fishery-independent bottom-longline surveys, as well as biotic and abiotic explanatory data to identify the factors that affect the distribution of coastal sharks at 2 spatial scales in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Centered principal component analyses (PCAs) were used to visualize the patterns that characterize shark distributions at small (Alabama and Mississippi coast) and large (northern Gulf of Mexico) spatial scales. Environmental data on temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), depth, fish and crustacean biomass, and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration were analyzed with normed PCAs at both spatial scales. The relationships between values of shark catch per unit of effort (CPUE) and environmental factors were then analyzed at each scale with co-inertia analysis (COIA). Results from COIA indicated that the degree of agreement between the structure of the environmental and shark data sets was relatively higher at the small spatial scale than at the large one. CPUE of Blacktip Shark (Carcharhinus limbatus) was related positively with crustacean biomass at both spatial scales. Similarly, CPUE of Atlantic Sharpnose Shark (Rhizoprionodon terraenovae) was related positively with chl-a concentration and negatively with DO at both spatial scales. Conversely, distribution of Blacknose Shark (C. acronotus) displayed a contrasting relationship with depth at the 2 scales considered. Our results indicate that the factors influencing the distribution of sharks in the northern Gulf of Mexico are species specific but generally transcend the spatial boundaries used in our analyses.

Coral reef ecosystems of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands: spatial and temporal patterns in fish and benthic communities (2001-2009)

Scientific and anecdotal observations during recent decades have suggested that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystems around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands have been impacted adversely by a wide range of environmental stressors. Major stressors included the mass die-off of the long-spined sea urchin (Diadema antillarum) in the early 1980s, a series of hurricanes (David and Frederick in 1979, and Hugo in 1989), overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora species and other reef-building corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events. In response to these adverse impacts, the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB) collaborated with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment around the island from 2001 to 2012. This 13-year monitoring effort, known as the Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Project (CREM), was supported by the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program as part of their National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program. This technical memorandum contains analysis of nine years of data (2001-2009) from in situ fish belt transect and benthic habitat quadrat surveys conducted in and around the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) and the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR). The purpose of this document is to: 1) Quantify spatial patterns and temporal trends in (i) benthic habitat composition and (ii) fish species abundance, size structure, biomass, and diversity; 2) Provide maps showing the locations of biological surveys and broad-scale distributions of key fish and benthic species and assemblages; and 3) Compare benthic habitat composition and reef fish assemblages in areas under NPS jurisdiction with those in similar areas not managed by NPS (i.e., outside of the VIIS and VICR boundaries). This report provides key information to help the St. John management community and others understand the impacts of natural and man-made perturbations on coral reef and near-shore ecosystems. It also supports ecosystem-based management efforts to conserve the region’s coral reef and related fauna while maintaining the many goods and ecological services that they offer to society.

Comparative analysis of three brevetoxin-associated bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) mortality events in the Florida Panhandle region (USA)

In the Florida Panhandle region, bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been highly susceptible to large-scale unusual mortality events (UMEs) that may have been the result of exposure to blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and its neurotoxin, brevetoxin (PbTx). Between 1999 and 2006, three bottlenose dolphin UMEs occurred in the Florida Panhandle region. The primary objective of this study was to determine if these mortality events were due to brevetoxicosis. Analysis of over 850 samples from 105 bottlenose dolphins and associated prey items were analyzed for algal toxins and have provided details on tissue distribution, pathways of trophic transfer, and spatial-temporal trends for each mortality event. In 1999/2000, 152 dolphins died following extensive K. brevis blooms and brevetoxin was detected in 52% of animals tested at concentrations up to 500 ng/g. In 2004, 105 bottlenose dolphins died in the absence of an identifiable K. brevis bloom; however, 100% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 29,126 ng/mL. Dolphin stomach contents frequently consisted of brevetoxin-contaminated menhaden. In addition, another potentially toxigenic algal species, Pseudo-nitzschia, was present and low levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) were detected in nearly all tested animals (89%). In 2005/2006, 90 bottlenose dolphins died that were initially coincident with high densities of K. brevis. Most (93%) of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 2,724 ng/mL. No DA was detected in these animals despite the presence of an intense DA-producing Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. In contrast to the absence or very low levels of brevetoxins measured in live dolphins, and those stranding in the absence of a K. brevis bloom, these data, taken together with the absence of any other obvious pathology, provide strong evidence that brevetoxin was the causative agent involved in these bottlenose dolphin mortality events.

Coral reef ecosystems of Reserva Natural de La Parguera (Puerto Rico): spatial and temporal patterns in fish and benthic communities (2001-2007)

Since 1999, NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize monitor and assess the status of the marine environment in southwestern Puerto Rico. This effort is part of the broader NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program’s (CRCP) National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program (NCREMP). With support from CRCP’s NCREMP, CCMA conducts the “Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring project” (CREM) with goals to: (1) spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance and size of marine fauna associated with shallow water coral reef seascapes (mosaics of coral reefs, seagrasses, sand and mangroves); (2) relate this information to in situ fine-scale habitat data and the spatial distribution and diversity of habitat types using benthic habitat maps; (3) use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting; (4) establish the efficacy of those management decisions; and (5) develop data collection and data management protocols. The monitoring effort of the La Parguera region in southwestern Puerto Rico was conducted through partnerships with the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DNER). Project funding was primarily provided by NOAA CRCP and CCMA. In recent decades, scientific and non-scientific observations have indicated that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystem in the La Parguera region have been adversely impacted by a wide range of environmental stressors. The major stressors have included the mass Diadema die off in the early 1980s, a suite of hurricanes, overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events, with the most severe mass bleaching episode in 2005. The area is also an important recreational resource supporting boating, snorkeling, diving and other water based activities. With so many potential threats to the marine ecosystem several activities are underway or have been implemented to manage the marine resources. These efforts have been supported by the CREM project by identifying marine fauna and their spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. This provides ecologically meaningful data to assess ecosystem condition, support decision making in spatial planning (including the evaluation of efficacy of current management strategies) and determine future information needs. The ultimate goal of the work is to better understand the coral reef ecosystems and to provide information toward protecting and enhancing coral reef ecosystems for the benefit of the system itself and to sustain the many goods and services that it offers society. This Technical Memorandum contains analysis of the first seven years of fish survey data (2001-2007) and associated characterization of the benthos. The primary objectives were to quantify changes in fish species and assemblage diversity, abundance, biomass and size structure and to provide spatially explicit information on the distribution of key species or groups of species and to compare community structure across the seascape including fringing mangroves, inner, middle, and outer reef areas, and open ocean shelf bank areas.

Spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands [poster]

Limited information currently exists on the recovery periods of bleached corals as well as the spatial extent, causative factors, and the overall impact of bleaching on coral reef ecosystems. During October, 2005, widespread coral bleaching was observed within Buck Island Reef National Monument (BUIS) St. Croix, USVI. The bleaching event was preceded by 10 weeks of higher than average water temperatures (28.9-30.1°C). Random transects (100 square meters) over hard bottom habitats (N=94) revealed that approximately 51% of live coral cover was bleached. Nineteen of 23 coral species within 16 genera and two hydrocoral species exhibited signs of bleaching; species-specific bleaching patterns were variable throughout the study area. Coral cover for Montastraea annularisand species of the genus Agariciawere the most affected, while other species exhibited variability to bleaching. Although a weak but significant negative relationship (r2=0.10, P=0.0220) was observed, bleaching was evident at all depths (1.5-28 m). Bleaching was spatially autocorrelated (P=0.001) and hot-spot analysis identified a cluster of high bleaching stations northeast of Buck Island. Bleaching was significantly reduced within all depth zones and habitat types upon subsequent monitoring during April (15%) and October (3%) 2006.

Characterizing Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico: a watershed modeling analysis and monitoring plan

Land-based pollution is commonly identified as a major contributor to the observed deterioration of shallow-water coral reef ecosystem health. Human activity on the coastal landscape often induces nutrient enrichment, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, toxic contamination and other stressors that have degraded the quality of coastal waters. Coral reef ecosystems throughout Puerto Rico, including Jobos Bay, are under threat from coastal land uses such as urban development, industry and agriculture. The objectives of this report were two-fold: 1. To identify potentially harmful land use activities to the benthic habitats of Jobos Bay, and 2. To describe a monitoring plan for Jobos Bay designed to assess the impacts of conservation practices implemented on the watershed. This characterization is a component of the partnership between the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) established by the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in Jobos Bay. CEAP is a multi-agency effort to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices used by private landowners participating in USDA programs. The Jobos Bay watershed, located in southeastern Puerto Rico, was selected as the first tropical CEAP Special Emphasis Watershed (SEW). Both USDA and NOAA use their respective expertise in terrestrial and marine environments to model and monitor Jobos Bay resources. This report documents NOAA activities conducted in the first year of the three-year CEAP effort in Jobos Bay. Chapter 1 provides a brief overview of the project and background information on Jobos Bay and its watershed. Chapter 2 implements NOAA’s Summit to Sea approach to summarize the existing resource conditions on the watershed and in the estuary. Summit to Sea uses a GIS-based procedure that links patterns of land use in coastal watersheds to sediment and pollutant loading predictions at the interface between terrestrial and marine environments. The outcome of Summit to Sea analysis is an inventory of coastal land use and predicted pollution threats, consisting of spatial data and descriptive statistics, which allows for better management of coral reef ecosystems. Chapters 3 and 4 describe the monitoring plan to assess the ecological response to conservation practices established by USDA on the watershed. Jobos Bay is the second largest estuary in Puerto Rico, but has more than three times the shoreline of any other estuarine area on the island. It is a natural harbor protected from offshore wind and waves by a series of mangrove islands and the Punta Pozuelo peninsula. The Jobos Bay marine ecosystem includes 48 km² of mangrove, seagrass, coral reef and other habitat types that span both intertidal and subtidal areas. Mapping of Jobos Bay revealed 10 different benthic habitats of varying prevalence, and a large area of unknown bottom type covering 38% of the entire bay. Of the known benthic habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation, primarily seagrass, is the most common bottom type, covering slightly less than 30% of the bay. Mangroves are the dominant shoreline feature, while coral reefs comprise only 4% of the total benthic habitat. However, coral reefs are some of the most productive habitats found in Jobos Bay, and provide important habitat and nursery grounds for fish and invertebrates of commercial and recreational value.

Spatial and temporal patterns in the demersal fish community on the shelf and upper slope regions of the Gulf of Alaska

We analyzed data from National Marine Fisheries Service bottom trawl surveys carried out triennially from 1984 to 1996 in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). The continental shelf and upper slope (0–500 m) of the GOA support a rich demersal fish fauna dominated by arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), and Pacific Ocean perch (Sebastes alutus). Average catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of all groundfish species combined increased with depth and had a significant peak near the shelf break at 150–200 m. Species richness and diversity had significant peaks at 200–300 m. The western GOA was characterized by higher CPUEs and lower species richness and diversity than the eastern GOA. Highest CPUEs were observed in Shelikof Strait, along the shelf break and upper slope south of Kodiak Island, and on the banks and in the gullies northeast of Kodiak Island. Significant differences in total CPUE among surveys suggest a 40% increase in total groundfish biomass between 1984 and 1996. A multivariate analysis of the CPUE of 72 groundfish taxa revealed strong gradients in species composition with depth and from east to west, and a weak but significant trend in species composition over time. The trend over time was associated with increases in the frequency of occurrence and CPUE of at least eight taxa, including skates (Rajidae), capelin (Mallotus villosus), three flatfish species, and Pacific Ocean perch, and decreases in frequency of occurrence and CPUE of several sculpin (Myoxocephalus spp.) species. Results are discussed in terms of spatial and temporal patterns in productivity and in the context of their ecological and management implications.