38 resultados para MCMC sampling


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Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are an important component of North Pacific marine ecosystems and commercial fisheries. Because the rocky, high-relief substrate that rockfishes often inhabit is inaccessible to standard survey trawls, population abundance assessments for many rockfish species are difficult. As part of a large study to classify substrate and compare complementary sampling tools, we investigated the feasibility of using an acoustic survey in conjunction with a lowered stereo-video camera, a remotely operated vehicle, and a modified bottom trawl to estimate rockfish biomass in untrawlable habitat. The Snakehead Bank south of Kodiak Island, Alaska, was surveyed repeatedly over 4 days and nights. Dusky rockfish (S. variabilis), northern rockfish (S. polyspinis), and harlequin rockfish (S. variegatus) were the most abundant species observed on the bank. Backscatter attributed to rockfish were collected primarily near the seafloor at a mean height off the bottom of 1.5 m. Total rockfish backscatter and the height of backscatter off the bottom did not differ among survey passes or between night and day. Biomass estimates for the 41 square nautical-mile area surveyed on this small, predominantly untrawlable bank were 2350 metric tons (t) of dusky rockfish, 331 t of northern rockfish, and 137 t of harlequin rockfish. These biomass estimates are 5–60 times the density estimated for these rockfish species by a regularly conducted bottom trawl survey covering the bank and the surrounding shelf. This finding shows that bottom trawl surveys can underestimate the abundance of rockfishes in untrawlable areas and, therefore, may underestimate overall population abundance for these species.

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In 1988, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife began sampling and monitoring the development of a new fishery for Pacific hagfish, Eptatretus stouti, and black hagfish, E. deani. Hagfish landings by Oregon trap vessels have ranged from 11,695 kg in 1988 to 340,774 kg in 1992. Whole frozen fish were shipped to South Korea for the "eel skin" leather market. From 1988 through 1989, I sampled 924 Pacific hagfish and 897 black hagfish from commercial and research catches. Mean length of fish sampled from commercial landings was 39.6 cmf or Pacific hagfish and 34.5 cm for black hagfish. Weight-length relationships (W=aLb) were calculated for males and females of both species. Fifty percent maturity for male and female Pacific hagfish was 35 cm and 42 cm, respectively, while 50% maturityf or male and female black hagfish was 34 cm and 38 cm, respectively. Examination of gonads for both species indicated that spawning either occurs throughout the year or the spawning period is protracted. Mature females of both species had from one to three distinct sizes of eggs, but they usually carried only one group of eggs over 5 mm in length. Mature Pacific hagfish females averaged 28 eggs over 5 mm in length, and black hagfish females averaged 14 eggs over 5 mm in length. Hermaphroditism was found in 0.2% of the Pacific hagfish examined.

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Sampling is a key element in the assessment of any fish stock. It is often one of the most expensive activities of the management process; thus, improved efficiency can result in significant cost savings. In most cases a two-phase sampling strategy is employed. Two commonly used versions of such stratified random schemes were simulated using a test population based on Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. A 1 otolith per 1 cm length frequency currently used for many flatfish and some smaller gadoids and a 3 otolith per 3 cm length frequency currently used for many of the larger gadoids. No difference was detected in the age composition or mean length at age for either scheme; however, 10 percent fewer otoliths were collected in 1 for 1 sampling than 3 for 3. There was an improvement of between 30 and 60 percent in the coefficient of variation of the estimated catch numbers at age using the 1 for 1 compared with the 3 for 3 stratified sampling. For these reasons and other operational considerations, the 1 for 1 stratified random design of sampling appears to be superior.

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Estimates of larval supply can provide information on year-class strength that is useful for fisheries management. However, larval supply is difficult to monitor because long-term, high-frequency sampling is needed. The purpose of this study was to subsample an 11-year record of daily larval supply of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to determine the effect of sampling interval on variability in estimates of supply. The coefficient of variation in estimates of supply varied by 0.39 among years at a 2-day sampling interval and 0.84 at a 7-day sampling interval. For 8 of the 11 years, there was a significant correlation between mean daily larval supply and lagged fishery catch per trip (coefficient of correlation [r]=0.88). When these 8 years were subsampled, a 2-day sampling interval yielded a significant correlation with fishery data only 64.5% of the time and a 3-day sampling interval never yielded a significant correlation. Therefore, high-frequency sampling (daily or every other day) may be needed to characterize interannual variability in larval supply.

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We build on recent efforts to standardize maturation staging methods through the development of a field-proof macroscopic ovarian maturity index for Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) for studies on diel spawning periodicity. A comparison of field and histological observations helped us to improve the field index and methods, and provided useful insight into the reproductive biology of Haddock and other boreal determinate fecundity species. We found reasonable agreement between field and histological methods, except for the regressing and regenerating stages (however, differentiation of these 2 stages is the least important distinction for determination of maturity or reproductive dynamics). The staging of developing ovaries was problematic for both methods partly because of asynchronous oocyte hydration during the early stage of oocyte maturation. Although staging on the basis of histology in a laboratory is generally more accurate than macroscopic staging methods in the field, we found that field observations can uncover errors in laboratory staging that result from bias in sampling unrepresentative portions of ovaries. For 2 specimens, immature ovaries observed during histological examination were incorrectly assigned as regenerating during macroscopic staging. This type of error can lead to miscalculation of length at maturity and of spawning stock biomass, metrics that are used to characterize the state of a fish population. The revised field index includes 3 new macroscopic stages that represent final oocyte maturation in a batch of oocytes and were found to be reliable for staging spawning readiness in the field. The index was found to be suitable for studies of diel spawning periodicity and conforms to recent standardization guidelines.

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The Biogeography Branch’s Sampling Design Tool for ArcGIS provides a means to effectively develop sampling strategies in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The tool was produced as part of an iterative process of sampling design development, whereby existing data informs new design decisions. The objective of this process, and hence a product of this tool, is an optimal sampling design which can be used to achieve accurate, highprecision estimates of population metrics at a minimum of cost. Although NOAA’s Biogeography Branch focuses on marine habitats and some examples reflects this, the tool can be used to sample any type of population defined in space, be it coral reefs or corn fields.

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Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.