26 resultados para Logistic Epidemic


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This is the report on Lakes – Classification and Monitoring, a strategy for the classification of lakes by the National Rivers Authority. This report describes a scheme for the assessment and monitoring of water and ecological quality in standing waters, greater than about 1ha in area, in England and Wales although it is generally relevant to Northwest Europe. Thirteen hydrological, chemical and biological variables are used to characterize the standing water body in any current sampling. Statistical testing on the chemical variables showed that at least six samples during a year would be needed to produce a representative sampling mean; but in this scheme the choice of variables minimizes logistic cost by not using boat sampling and time costs by not demanding extensive taxonomic work. Standing waters are classified in a state-changed system in which the contemporary values of the variables are compared with a reference baseline state and then placed in categories of percentage change from this baseline. The scheme is presently designed for use at about five year intervals on all lakes greater than 2ha area plus additional lakes of significant amenity or conservation interest.

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Marine mammals, such as dolphins, can serve as key indicator species in coastal areas by reflecting the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such they are often considered sentinels of environmental and ecosystem health (Bossart 2006; Wells et al. 2004; Fair and Becker 2000). The bottlenose dolphin is an apex predator and a key component of many estuarine environments in the southeastern United States (Woodward-Clyde Consultants 1994; SCDNR 2005). Health assessments of dolphins are especially critical in areas where populations are depleted, show signs of epidemic disease and/or high mortality and/or where habitat is being altered or impacted by human activities. Recent assessments of environmental conditions in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (IRL) and the estuarine waters surrounding Charleston, South Carolina (CHS) highlight the need for studies of the health of local bottlenose dolphins. While the condition of southeastern estuaries was rated as fair in the National Coastal Condition Report (U.S. EPA 2001), it was noted that the IRL was characterized by poorer than expected benthic communities, significant sediment toxicity and increased nutrient concentrations. Similarly, portions of the CHS estuary have sediment concentrations of aliphatic aromatic hydrocarbons, select inorganic metals, and some persistent pesticides far in excess of reported bioeffect levels (Hyland et al. 1998). Long-term trends in water quality monitoring and recent scientific research suggest that waste load assimilation, non-point source runoff impacts, contaminated sediments, and toxic pollutants are key issues in the CHS estuary system. Several ‘hot spots’ with high levels of heavy metals and organic compounds have been identified (Van Dolah et al. 2004). High concentrations of anthropogenic trace metals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB’s) and pesticides have been found in the sediments of Charleston Harbor, as well as the Ashley and Cooper Rivers (Long et al. 1998). Two superfund sites are located within the CHS estuary and the key contaminants of concern associated with these sites are: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), lead, chromium, copper, arsenic, zinc and dioxin. Concerns related to the overall health of IRL dolphins and dermatologic disease observed in many dolphins in the area (Bossart et al. 2003) initiated an investigation of potential factors which may have impacted dolphin health. From May-August 2001, 35 bottlenose dolphins died in the IRL during an unusual mortality event (MMC 2003). Many of these dolphins were diagnosed with a variety of skin lesions including proliferative ulcerative dermatitis due to protozoa and fungi, dolphin pox and a vesicular dermatopathy of unknown etiology (Bossart et al. 2003). Multiple species from fish to dolphins in the IRL system have exhibited skin lesions of various known and unknown etiologies (Kane et al. 2000; Bossart et al. 2003; Reif et al. 2006). On-going photo-identification (photo-ID) studies have documented skin diseases in IRL dolphins (Mazzoil et al. 2005). In addition, up to 70% of green sea turtles in the IRL exhibit fibropapillomas, with the highest rates of occurrence being seen in turtles from the southern IRL (Hirama 2001).

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Skin disease occurs frequently in many cetacean species across the globe; methods to categorize lesions have relied on photo-identification (photo-id), stranding, and bycatch data. The current study used photo-id data from four sampling months during 2009 to estimate skin lesion prevalence and type occurring on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from three sites along the southeast United States coast [Sarasota Bay, FL (SSB); near Brunswick and Sapelo Island, GA (BSG); and near Charleston, SC (CHS)]. The prevalence of lesions was highest among BSG dolphins (P=0.587) and lowest in SSB (P=0.380), and the overall prevalence was significantly different among all sites (p<0.0167). Logistic regression modeling revealed a significant reduction in the odds of lesion occurrence for increasing water temperatures (OR=0.92; 95%CI:0.906-0.938) and a significantly increased odds of lesion occurrence for BSG dolphins (OR=1.39; 95%CI:1.203-1.614). Approximately one-third of the lesioned dolphins from each site presented with multiple types, and population differences in lesion type occurrence were observed (p<0.05). Lesions on stranded dolphins were sampled to determine the etiology of different lesion types, which included three visually distinct samples positive for herpesvirus. Although generally considered non-fatal, skin disease may be indicative of animal health or exposure to anthropogenic or environmental threats, and photo-id data provide an efficient and cost-effective approach to document the occurrence of skin lesions in free-ranging populations.

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Vibrio vulnificus is a gram-negative pathogenic bacterium endemic to coastal waters worldwide, and a leading cause of seafood related mortality. Because of human health concerns, understanding the ecology of the species and potentially predicting its distribution is of great importance. We evaluated and applied a previously published qPCR assay to water samples (n = 235) collected from the main-stem of the Chesapeake Bay (2007 – 2008) by Maryland and Virginia State water quality monitoring programs. Results confirmed strong relationships between the likelihood of Vibrio vulnificus presence and both temperature and salinity that were used to develop a logistic regression model. The habitat model demonstrated a high degree of concordance (93%), and robustness as subsequent bootstrapping (n=1000) did not change model output (P > 0.05). We forced this empirical habitat model with temperature and salinity predictions generated by a regional hydrodynamic modeling system to demonstrate its utility in future pathogen forecasting efforts in the Chesapeake Bay.

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We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

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The reproductive biology of male franciscanas (Pontoporia blainvillei), based on 121 individuals collected in Rio Grande do Sul State, southern Brazil, was studied. Estimates on age, length, and weight at attainment of sexual maturity are presented. Data on the reproductive seasonality and on the relationship between some testicular characteristics and age, size, and maturity status are provided. Sexual maturity was assessed by histological examination of the testes. Seasonality was determined by changes in relative and total testis weight, and in seminiferous tubule diameters. Testis weight, testicular index of maturity, and seminiferous tubule diameters were reliable indicators of sexual maturity, whereas testis length, age, length, and weight of the dolphin were not. Sexual maturity was estimated to be attained at 3.6 years (CI 95% =2.7–4.5) with the DeMaster method and 3.0 years with the logistic equation. Length and weight at attainment of sexual maturity were 128.2 cm (CI 95%=125.3–131.1 cm) and 26.4 kg (CI 95% =24.7–28.1 kg), respectively. It could not be verified that there was any seasonal change in the testis weight and in the seminiferous tubule diameters in mature males. It is suggested that at least some mature males may remain reproductively active throughout the year. The extremely low relative testis weight indicates that sperm competition does not occur in the species. On the other hand, the absence of secondary sexual characteristics, the reversed sexual size dimorphism, and the small number of scars from intrassexual combats in males reinforce the hypothesis that male combats for female reproductive access may be rare for franciscana. It is hypothesized that P. blainvillei form temporary pairs (one male copulating with only one female) during the reproductive period.

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Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

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The growth of red sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) was modeled by using tag-recapture data from northern California. Red sea urchins (n=211) ranging in test diameter from 7 to 131 mm were examined for changes in size over one year. We used the function Jt+1 = Jt + f(Jt) to model growth, in which Jt is the jaw size (mm) at tagging, and Jt+1 is the jaw size one year later. The function f(Jt), represents one of six deterministic models: logistic dose response, Gaussian, Tanaka, Ricker, Richards, and von Bertalanffy with 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, and 2 minimization parameters, respectively. We found that three measures of goodness of fi t ranked the models similarly, in the order given. The results from these six models indicate that red sea urchins are slow growing animals (mean of 7.2 ±1.3 years to enter the fishery). We show that poor model selection or data from a limited range of urchin sizes (or both) produces erroneous growth parameter estimates and years-to-fishery estimates. Individual variation in growth dominated spatial variation at shallow and deep sites (F=0.246, n=199, P=0.62). We summarize the six models using a composite growth curve of jaw size, J, as a function of time, t: J = A(B – e–Ct) + Dt, in which each model is distinguished by the constants A, B, C, and D. We suggest that this composite model has the flexibility of the other six models and could be broadly applied. Given the robustness of our results regarding the number of years to enter the fishery, this information could be incorporated into future fishery management plans for red sea urchins in northern California.

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Portunus pelagicus was collected at regular intervals from two marine embayments and two estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia and from a large embayment located approximately 800 km farther north. The samples were used to obtain data on the reproductive biology of this species in three very different environments. Unlike females, the males show a loosening of the attachment of the abdominal flap to the cephalothorax at a prepubertal rather than a pubertal molt. Males become gonadally mature (spermatophores and seminal fluid present in the medial region of the vas deferentia) at a very similar carapace width (CW) to that at which they achieve morphometric maturity, as reflected by a change in the relative size of the largest cheliped. Logistic curves, derived from the prevalence of mature male P. pelagicus, generally had wider confidence limits with morphometric than with gonadal data. This presumably reflects the fact that the morphometric (allometric) method of classifying a male P. pelagicus as mature employs probabilities and is thus indirect, whereas gonadal structure allows a mature male to be readily identified. However, the very close correspondence between the CW50’s derived for P. pelagicus by the two methods implies that either method can be used for management purposes. Portunus pelagicus attained maturity at a significantly greater size in the large embayment than in the four more southern bodies of water, where water temperatures were lower and the densities of crabs and fishing pressure were greater. As a result of the emigration of mature female P. pelagicus from estuaries, the CW50’s derived by using the prevalence of mature females in estuaries represent overestimates for those populations as a whole. Estimates of the number of egg batches produced in a spawning season ranged from one in small crabs to three in large crabs. These data, together with the batch fecundities of different size crabs, indicate that the estimated number of eggs produced by P. pelagicus during the spawning season ranges from about 78,000 in small crabs (CW=80 mm) to about 1,000,000 in large crabs (CW=180 mm).

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Particle flux in the ocean reflects ongoing biological and geological processes operating under the influence of the local environment. Estimation of this particle flux through sediment trap deployment is constrained by sampler accuracy, particle preservation, and swimmer distortion. Interpretation of specific particle flux is further constrained by indeterminate particle dispersion and the absence of a clear understanding of the sedimentary consequences of ecosystem activity. Nevertheless, the continuous and integrative properties of the particle trap measure, along with the logistic advantage of a long-term moored sampler, provide a set of strategic advantages that appear analogous to those underlying conventional oceanographic survey programs. Emboldened by this perception, several stations along the coast of Southern California and Mexico have been targeted as coastal ocean flux sites (COFS).

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The fisheries resources of Lakes Albert and Kyoga present a high potential for economic growth, food, employment and foreign earnings. However, livelihoods appear to be compromised with the emergence and rapid spread of HIV/AIDS in the fisher communities of L. Albert and Kyoga. HIV/AIDS is considered a silent epidemic that is unique, posing a great challenge to the fisheries managers, health service providers, development planners and the resource users themselves. Fishers have high HIV prevalence, as well as AIDS-related illnesses and mortality rates. The high HIV prevalence rates among the fishing communities in Uganda is between 10-40% compared to the national rates which lie between 6% and 7%. This indicates that the national programmes have not adequately addressed the plight of the fishing communities of Lakes Albert, and Kyoga and the consequences have been devastating. Men and women living in fishing villages across the world have been found to be between five and ten times more vulnerable to the disease than other communities (Tarzan et al 2005, FAO, 2007). The present prevalence rates among the fishing communities stands at 10 to 40 % (LVFO, 2008). Meanwhile the same fishing communities are the essential labour for the Lakes’ fishery industry which is thriving nationally and internationally. That resource potentially can alleviate poverty and the HIV/AIDS threat. Fishing communities are the hidden victims of the disease, mixing patterns with the general population could act as a reservoir of infection that could spill over into the general population to drive the epidemic. On L. Albert, a quarter of the fisher folk were HIV-positive by 1992 compared to 4% in a nearby Agricultural village. Since then, there have been no targeted studies to address or monitor the prevalence rates eight years later, yet the multiplicity factor is high. HIV/AIDS can be linked to unsustainable fisheries, as the labour force available would not go to deep waters to fish, instead would fish in the shallow waters as a coping mechanism. A further effect is the loss to National and local economies and reduced nutritional security for the wider population. HIV/AIDS remains a significant challenge that has created a mosaic of complexity in the fishery sector. This needs to be addressed. It is, therefore, paramount that a comprehensive study was under taken to address this pandemic and the phenomenon of HIV/AIDS based on the study objectives. 1. To determine the trend in HIV/AIDS infection among fishing communities and the factors affecting it 2. To assess the impacts of HIV/AIDS on fish production and the implications for fisheries management.