42 resultados para Holt-Winters


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Die Auswirkungen des milden Winters 1988/89 auf die chemischen und biologischen Prozesse in der Nordsee werden von Fachleuten, aber auch von Politikern und der Presse lebhaft diskutiert. Schon im März wurden Befürchtungen geäußert, eine ähnliche kräftige und eventuell für andere marine Lebewesen schädigende Planktonblüte wie im Vorjahr stünde bevor. Dazu kam es jedoch nicht. Für das Vorjahresereignis wird diskutiert, ob als Grund ein Zusammenwirken von anomaler Zirkulation, kräftiger Frühjahrserwärmung, erhöhtem Festlandabfluß und damit verbundener kräftiger Nährstoffzufuhr in Frage kommt. Eine mögliche Erklärung für die diesjährige "normale" Planktonblüte wäre: Es lag zwar durchaus wieder eine ausgeprägte Zirkulationsanomalie in der Nordsee vor, jedoch fehlte die übermäßige "Düngung" durch Festlandabfluß, da es im vergangenen Frühjahrzu wenig Niederschläge gegeben hatte. Von einer "ganz normalen" Planktonblüte kann man in diesem Jahr allerdings auch nicht sprechen. Das erhöhte winterliche Temperaturniveau ließ einige Planktonarten sich bereits im Februar, also sehr früh, kräftig vermehren.

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The economic, environmental and social benefits of more sensitive land use practices that protect or restore the natural functions of river catchments have been widely discussed. Changing land use has implications for a wide range of other biological communities. Some studies have already been undertaken on the benefits of sensitive farming at the catchment scale in England and Wales. However, there is a gap in these studies at the local scale, and particularly for upland farms from which headwaters arise. This article documents a case study relating to a successful partnership in Cumbria, UK, set within the wider context of catchment management. Whilst the case study is not highly detailed, and some costs have been described in outline only to protect confidentiality and commercial sensitivity, it provides some generic lessons and may therefore be useful in informing more sustainable policy-making. High Hullockhowe Farm near Haweswater, which was used a the case study highlighting changes in farm practise, costs and benefits, water resources and biodiversity. The authors relate the case study to wider policy implications.

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In relation to the hydroclimate prevailing off Congo (B) and Côte d'Ivoire, synchronic variations are described in abundance and distribution of Pseudotolithus senegalensis V., economically the most important species in the West African trawl fishery. Although this fish prefers the warm surface layer, it is relatively indifferent to hydrological conditions, since it may also occur in the thermocline down to the higher levels of 'Central South Atlantic Water'. The oxygen concentration appears to have an important effect upon their distribution, especially the low concentrations occurring with the upwelling. The main biological functions, such as spawning and recruitment times, condition factor, diet and ring appearance on otoliths, also follow cycles, which are parallel with the hydroclimate one. Therefore, the ring-shaped structures revealed by burning previously ground otoliths could be easily interpreted. Thus, an accurate method for ageing tropical fish is now available. From the age determinations for the Congolese stock, it appears that growth is fast and total mortality rate high. An influence of fishing effort, which increased 3 times during the exploited phase of sampled specimens, appears both in growth and in total mortality. From there an estimate for the fishing mortality could be given. The estimates of dynamic parameters for the Congolese stock are then used in the Beverton-Holt model. A valuable increase of the yield could be expected, if mesh size is widened and effort restricted.

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Ichthyoplankton surveys were conducted in shelf and slope waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico during the months of May–September in 2005 and 2006 to investigate the potential role of this region as spawning and nursery habitat of sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus). During the two-year study, 2426 sailfish larvae were collected, ranging in size from 2.0 to 24.3 mm standard length. Mean density for all neuston net collections (n=288) combined was 1.5 sailfish per 1000 m2, and maximum density was observed within frontal features created by hydrodynamic convergence (2.3 sailfish per 1000 m2). Sagittal otoliths were extracted from 1330 larvae, and otolith microstructure analysis indicated that the sailfish ranged in age from 4 to 24 days after hatching (mean=10.5 d, standard deviation [SD]=3.2 d). Instantaneous growth coefficients (g) among survey periods (n=5) ranged from 0.113 to 0.127, and growth peaked during July 2005 collections when density within frontal features was highest. Daily instantaneous mortality rates (Z) ranged from 0.228 to 0.381, and Z was indexed to instantaneous weight-specific growth (G) to assess stage-specific production potential of larval cohorts. Ratios of G to Z were greater than 1.0 for all but one cohort examined, indicating that cohorts were gaining biomass during the majority of months investigated. Stage-specific production potential, in combination with catch rates and densities of larvae, indicates that the Gulf of Mexico likely represents important spawning and nursery habitat for sailfish.

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The increase in the abundance of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries over the past 30 years is correlated to increased wintertime surface water temperatures. Trends in the relative abundance of gray snapper are evaluated by using monthly fishery-independent monitoring data from each of the seven major estuaries along the Texas coast from 1978 through 2006. Environmental conditions during this period demonstrated increasing annual sea surface temperatures, although this increase was not seasonally uniform. The largest proportion of temperature increases was attributed to higher winter temperature minimums since 1993. Positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulting in wetter, warmer winters in the eastern United States have occurred nearly uninterrupted since the late 1970s, and unprecedented positive index values occurred between 1989 and 1995. Increases in water temperature in Texas estuaries, beginning in the early 1990s, are postulated to provide both favorable over-wintering conditions for the newly settled juveniles and increased recruitment success. In the absence of cold winters, this species has established semipermanent estuarine populations across the entire Texas coast. A shift to negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation will likely result in returns to colder winter temperature minimums that could reverse any recent population gains.

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Some results of a line of research explored by the author in recent years, and concerning the small-scale fisheries of Mexico are discussed. Clarity of goals for fisheries management is stressed as a departure point before taking any step towards model building. Age-structured simulation models require input data and parameters such as growth rates, natural mortality, age at first capture and maturity, longevity, the longest possible catch records series, and estimates of numbers caught per age group. The link between each cohort and the following can then be established by means of the Ricker stock recruitment or the Beverton-Holt models. Simulation experiments can then be carried out by changing fishing mortality. Whenever data on profits and costs and catch are available, these can also be analyzed. The use of simulation models is examined with emphasis on the benefits derived from their use for fisheries management.

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Vetter (1988) noted that her review of the estimation of the instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) was initiated by a discussion among colleagues that identified M as the single most impor ta nt but least well-estimated parameter in fishery models. A lthough much has been accomplished in the inter vening years, M remains one of the most difficult parameters to estimate in fishery stock assessments. A number of novel approaches using tagging and telemetry data provide promise for making reliable direct estimates of M for a given stock (Hearn et al., 1998 ; Frusher and Hoenig, 2001; Hightower et al., 2001; Latour et al., 2003; Pollock et al., 2004). However, such methods are often impracticable and fishery scientists must approximate M by using estimates made for other stocks of the same or similar species or by predicting M from features of the species’ life history (Beverton and Holt, 1959; Beverton, 1963; Alverson and Carney, 1975; Pauly, 1980; Hoenig, 1983; Peterson and Wroblewski, 1984; Roff, 1984; Gunderson and Dygert, 1988; Chen and Watanabe, 1989; Charnov, 1993; Jensen, 1996; Lorenzen, 1996).

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Catch and mesh selectivity of wire-meshed fish traps were tested for eleven different mesh sizes ranging from 13 X 13 mm (0.5 x 0.5") to 76 x 152 mm (3 X 6"). A total of 1,810 fish (757 kg) representing 85 species and 28 families were captured during 330 trap hauls off southeastern Florida from December 1986 to July 1988. Mesh size significantly affected catches. The 1.5" hexagonal mesh caught the most fish by number, weight, and value. Catches tended to decline as meshes got smaller or larger. Individual fish size increased with larger meshes. Laboratory mesh retention experiments showed relationships between mesh shape and size and individual retention for snapper (Lutjanidae), grouper (Serranidae), jack (Carangidae), porgy (Sparidae), and surgeonfish (Acanthuridae). These relationships may be used to predict the effect of mesh sizes on catch rates. Because mesh size and shape greatly influenced catchability, regulating mesh size may provide a useful basis for managing the commercial trap fishery.

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After an unusually strong and persistent pattern of atmospheric circulation over the United State[s] in Fall 1985, it became quite changeable (although high amplitude anomalies still prevailed). Following a fall that was cold in the West and warm in the East with heavy precipitation, a high pressure ridge set in over the West during December, with generally light precipitation over most of the country. Throughout the winter, the central North Pacific was very active, with large negative atmospheric pressure anomalies centered at about 45°N, l60°W. This activity may have been encouraged by an enhanced meridional eastern North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, with positive SST anomalies in the subtropics and negative anomalies in midlatitudes. However, in January, the western high pressure ridge remained strong and temperatures were remarkably warm, increasing the threat of drought in California after the two previous dry winters. However, in February, storms from a greatly expanded and southerly displaced Aleutian Low broke into the West Coast. An unusual siege from February 11 to February 20 flooded central and northern California, with very heavy precipitation and record to near-record runoff. Upwards of 50 percent of annual average precipitation fell on locations from the upper San Joaquin to the Feather River drainage basins, and the largest flow since observations began in the early 1900's was recorded on the Sacramento River at Sacramento. The atmospheric pattern that was responsible for this remarkable stormy spell developed when the western high pressure retrograded to the northwest into the Aleutians, accompanied by the strengthened and southerly extended storm tract that moved into California. Although exact details vary from case to case, this episode displayed meteorological conditions similar to those in several other historical California winter flood events. These included a long duration of very strong westerly to southwesterly winds over a long subtropical fetch into California. Much of the precipitation during this series of storms was orographically induced by the moisture laden flow rising over the Sierra ranges. Due to the warm air mass, snow levels were relatively high (about 7500 feet) during the heaviest precipitation, resulting in copious runoff.

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Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.