A prior for steepness in stock-recruitment relationships, based on an evolutionary persistence principle

Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values.

Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90 % confidence interval: 13−28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0−8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3−6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5×1011 (90% CI: 3.5×1011, 7.7×1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

Incidental catch and estimated discards of pelagic sharks from the swordfish and tuna fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea

Large pelagic sharks are caught incidentally in the swordfish and tuna fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. In our study, twelve shark species were documented as bycatch over three years from 1998 to 2000. Blue shark (Prionace glauca) was the predominant species in all gears and areas examined. Shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), common thresher shark (Alopias vulpinus), and tope shark (Galeorhinus galeus) were the next most abundant shark species—found in more than half of the areas sampled. Catch composition varied both in the areas and gears investigated. Sharks represented 34.3% in weight of total catches sampled in the Alboran Sea and 0.9% in the Straits of Sicily. Higher shark catches were observed in the swordfish longline fishery, where a nominal CPUE value reached 3.8 sharks/1000 hooks in the Alboran Sea. Size distribution by fishing gear varied significantly. Albacore longline catches consisted mainly of juveniles, whereas subadult and adult specimens were more frequent in the swordfish longline and driftnet fishery. The percentage of sharks brought onboard alive was exceptionally high; only 5.1% of the specimens died. Few discards (seven blue shark) were recorded in the Greek longline fleet during onboard sampling in the Aegean Se

Parameter estimates for fishes of the upper Paraná river floodplain and Itaipu reservoir (Brazil)

Estimates of the growth (K), natural mortality (M), consumption/biomass (Q/B) rate and trophic level (TL) for 35 species in the upper Paraná river floodplain and the Itaipu reservoir (interconnected ecosystems) are presented. A compilation of these biological statistics is made for comparison purposes and some general trends are briefly discussed.

Population parameters of small pelagic fishes caught off Tawi-Tawi, Philippines

Growth and mortality parameters, exploitation rates and annual recruitment patterns were estimated from monthly length-frequency samples for Sardinella longiceps, S. fimbriata, S. Albella, Decapterus macrosoma, Dipterygonatus balteatus, Rastrelliger faughni and Encrasicolina heteroloba. These results provide the first sets of stock parameter estimates for these species off Tawi-Tawi, Philippines. The growth parameters derived were found comparable with previous estimates available for the same species from other localities. Recruitment was noted to be year-round and bimodal. Estimates of fishing mortality and exploitation rate were found to be presently above appropriate levels.

Comparative growth performance of jack mackerels of the genus Trachurus with emphasis on T. symmetricus murphyi in Chile

This contribution presents von Bertalanffy growth parameter estimates for species/stocks of jack mackerels of the genus Trachurus from around the world, and compares them with growth parameters for T. symmetricus murphyi caught off central-Chile (33 super(o)S-39 super(o)S). It is found that Trachurus stocks inhabiting upwelling areas such as the Humboldt and Benguela current systems grow better than their ecological equivalents in temperate waters, such as the North Sea. The von Bertalanffy growth paramters estimated from Chilean horse mackerel are: FL = 65.2 cm (TL = 71.6 cm) and K = 0.138 year super(-1).

Improving Shepherd's Length Composition Analysis (SLCA) method for growth parameter estimations

Shepherd's "weekly parametric" method for estimating the parameter L sub( infinity ) and K of the von Bertalanffy growth function from length-frequency data often fails to converge, and usually overestimates K. It is shown that this is due to overcounting of the frequencies associated with large, slow growing fish, and that both of these problems can be completely overcome by a simple change in the way the scoring function is formulated.

Effects of El Niño events on energy demand and egg production of rockfish (Scorpaenidae: Sebastes): a bioenergetics approach

Fish bioenergetics models estimate relationships between energy budgets and environmental and physiological variables. This study presents a generic rockfish (Sebastes) bioenergetics model and estimates energy consumption by northern California blue rockf ish (S. mystinus) under average (baseline) and El Niño conditions. Compared to males, female S. mystinus required more energy because they were larger and had greater reproductive costs. When El Niño conditions (warmer temperatures; lower growth, condition, and fecundity) were experienced every 3−7 years, energy consumption decreased on an individual and a per-recruit basis in relation to baseline conditions, but the decrease was minor (<4% at the individual scale, <7% at the per-recruit scale) compared to decreases in female egg production (12−19% at the individual scale, 15−23% at the per-recruit scale). When mortality in per-recruit models was increased by adding fishing, energy consumption in El Niño models grew more similar to that seen in the baseline model. However, egg production decreased significantly — an effect exacerbated by the frequency of El Niño events. Sensitivity analyses showed that energy consumption estimates were most sensitive to respiration parameters, energy density, and female fecundity, and that estimated consumption increased as parameter uncertainty increased. This model provides a means of understanding rockfish trophic ecology in the context of community structure and environmental change by synthesizing metabolic, demographic, and environmental information. Future research should focus on acquiring such information so that models like the bioenergetics model can be used to estimate the effect of climate change, community shifts, and different harvesting strategies on rockfish energy demands.

Year-class formation in Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) estimated from spawning-date distributions of juveniles in San Francisco Bay, California

Inter and intra-annual variation in year-class strength was analyzed for San Francisco Bay Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) by using otoliths of juveniles. Juvenile herring were collected from March through June in 1999 and 2000 and otoliths from subsamples of these collections were aged by daily otolith increment analysis. The composition of the year classes in 1999 and 2000 were determined by back-calculating the birth date distribution for surviving juvenile herring. In 2000, 729% more juveniles were captured than in 1999, even though an estimated 12% fewer eggs were spawned in 2000. Spawning-date distributions show that survival for the 2000 year class was exceptionally good for a short (approximately 1 month) period of spawning, resulting in a large abundance of juvenile recruits. Analysis of age at size shows that growth rate increased significantly as the spawning season progressed both in 1999 and 2000. However, only in 2000 were the bulk of surviving juveniles a product of the fast growth period. In the two years examined, year-class strength was not predicted by the estimated number of eggs spawned, but rather appeared to depend on survival of eggs or larvae (or both) through the juvenile stage. Fast growth through the larval stage may have little effect on year-class strength if mortality during the egg stage is high and few larvae are available.

History of Whaling and Estimated Kill of Right Whales, Balaena glacialis, in the Northeastern United States, 1620–1924

This study, part of a broader investigation of the history of exploitation of right whales, Balaena glacialis, in the western North Atlantic, emphasizes U.S. shore whaling from Maine to Delaware (from lat. 45°N to 38°30'N) in the period 1620–1924. Our broader study of the entire catch history is intended to provide an empirical basis for assessing past distribution and abundance of this whale population. Shore whaling may have begun at Cape Cod, Mass., in the 1620’s or 1630’s; it was certainly underway there by 1668. Right whale catches in New England waters peaked before 1725, and shore whaling at Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket continued to decline through the rest of the 18th century. Right whales continued to be taken opportunistically in Massachusetts, however, until the early 20th century. They were hunted in Narragansett Bay, R.I., as early as 1662, and desultory whaling continued in Rhode Island until at least 1828. Shore whaling in Connecticut may have begun in the middle 1600’s, continuing there until at least 1718. Long Island shore whaling spanned the period 1650–1924. From its Dutch origins in the 1630’s, a persistent shore whaling enterprise developed in Delaware Bay and along the New Jersey shore. Although this activity was most profi table in New Jersey in the early 1700’s, it continued there until at least the 1820’s. Whaling in all areas of the northeastern United States was seasonal, with most catches in the winter and spring. Historically, right whales appear to have been essentially absent from coastal waters south of Maine during the summer and autumn. Based on documented references to specific whale kills, about 750–950 right whales were taken between Maine and Delaware, from 1620 to 1924. Using production statistics in British customs records, the estimated total secured catch of right whales in New England, New York, and Pennsylvania between 1696 and 1734 was 3,839 whales based on oil and 2,049 based on baleen. After adjusting these totals for hunting loss (loss-rate correction factor = 1.2), we estimate that 4,607 (oil) or 2,459 (baleen) right whales were removed from the stock in this region during the 38-year period 1696–1734. A cumulative catch estimate of the stock’s size in 1724 is 1,100–1,200. Although recent evidence of occurrence and movements suggests that right whales continue to use their traditional migratory corridor along the U.S. east coast, the catch history indicates that this stock was much larger in the 1600’s and early 1700’s than it is today. Right whale hunting in the eastern United States ended by the early 1900’s, and the species has been protected throughout the North Atlantic since the mid 1930’s. Among the possible reasons for the relatively slow stock recovery are: the very small number of whales that survived the whaling era to become founders, a decline in environmental carrying capacity, and, especially in recent decades, mortality from ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear.

Mortality and movement of Yellowtail Flounder (Limanda ferruginea) tagged off New England

From 2003 to 2006, 44,882 Yellowtail Flounder (Limanda ferruginea) were captured and released with conventional disc tags in the western North Atlantic as part of a cooperative Yellowtail Flounder tagging study. From these releases, 3767 of the tags were recovered. The primary objectives of this tagging program were to evaluate the mortality and large-scale movement of Yellowtail Flounder among 3 stock areas in New England. To explore mortality, survival and recovery rate were estimated from traditional Brownie tag-recovery models fitted to the data with Program MARK. Models were examined with time and sex-dependent parameters over several temporal scales. The models with a monthly scale for both survival and recovery rate had the best overall fit and returned parameter estimates that were biologically reasonable. Estimates of survival from the tag-recovery models confirm the general magnitude of total mortality derived from age-based stock assessments but indicate that survival was greater for females than for males. In addition to calculating mortality estimates, we examined the pattern of release and recapture locations and revealed frequent movements within stock areas and less frequent movement among stock areas. The collaboration of fishermen and scientists for this study successfully resulted in independent confirmation of previously documented patterns of movement and mortality rates from conventional age-based analyses.

Assessing the precision of frequency distributions estimated from trawl-survey samples

In trawl surveys a cluster of fish are caught at each station, and fish caught together tend to have more similar characteristics, such as length, age, stomach contents etc., than those in the entire population. When this is the case, the effective sample size for estimates of the frequency distribution of a population characteristic can, therefore, be much smaller than the number of fish sampled during a survey. As examples, it is shown that the effective sample size for estimates of length-frequency distributions generated by trawl surveys conducted in the Barents Sea, off Namibia, and off South Africa is on average approximately one fish per tow. Thus many more fish than necessary are measured at each station (location). One way to increase the effective sample size for these surveys and, hence, increase the precision of the length-frequency estimates, is to reduce tow duration and use the time saved to collect samples at more stations.

Estimated ages of red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) from fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data and a comparison of growth parameters

The red porgy, Pagrus pagrus, is an important reef fish in several offshore fisheries along the southeastern United States. We examined samples from North Carolina through southeast Florida from recreational (headboat) and commercial (hook and line) fisheries, as well as samples from a fishery-independent source. Red porgy attain a maximum age of at least 18 years and 733 mm total length. The weight-length relationship is represented by the ln-ln transformed equation: W = 8.85 × 10–6(L)3.06, where W = whole weight in grams, and L = total length in mm. The von Bertalanffy growth equation fitted to the most recent, back-calculated lengths from all the samples is Lt = 644(1 – e –0.15(t + 0.76)). Our study revealed a difference in mean length at age of red porgy from the three sources. Red porgy in fishery-independent collections were smaller at age than specimens examined from fishery-dependent sources. The difference in length-at-age may be related to gear selectivity and have important consequences in the assessment of fish stocks.