Sea surface temperature and the subsequent freshwater survival rate of some salmon stocks: a surprising link between the climate of land and sea

Previous consideration of the relationship between climate and the survival rate of Pacific salmon eggs and fry has been confined to effects of large variation in the ambient freshwater environment; e.g., stream discharge, temperature, turbidity. This analysis shows sea surface temperatures during the last year of life of maturing adult salmon are also strongly associated with the subsequent survival rate of salmon eggs and fry is fresh water, presumably through development of the future eggs or sperm. In several stocks of three species of North American salmon, the association between the "marine" climate and egg survival is stronger than, or additive to, any estimated climatic association in fresh water. This apparent and surprising link between fresh water and the distant ocean has some interesting and complex implications for management of future salmon production.

Estimating the emigration rate of fish stocks from marine sanctuaries using tag-recovery data

A critical process in assessing the impact of marine sanctuaries on fish stocks is the movement of fish out into surrounding fished areas. A method is presented for estimating the yearly rate of emigration of animals from a protected (“no-take”) zone. Movement rates for exploited populations are usually inferred from tag-recovery studies, where tagged individuals are released into the sea at known locations and their location of recapture is reported by fishermen. There are three drawbacks, however, with this method of estimating movement rates: 1) if animals are tagged and released into both protected and fished areas, movement rates will be overestimated if the prohibition on recapturing tagged fish later from within the protected area is not made explicit; 2) the times of recapture are random; and 3) an unknown proportion of tagged animals are recaptured but not reported back to researchers. An estimation method is proposed which addresses these three drawbacks of tag-recovery data. An analytic formula and an associated double-hypergeometric likelihood method were derived. These two estimators of emigration rate were applied to tag recoveries from southern rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) released into a sanctuary and into its surrounding fished area in South Australia.

Estimating long-term growth-rate changes of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) from two periods of tag-return data

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) (Thunnus maccoyii) growth rates are estimated from tag-return data associated with two time periods, the 1960s and 1980s. The traditional von Bertalanffy growth model (VBG) and a two-phase VBG model were fitted to the data by maximum likelihood. The traditional VBG model did not provide an adequate representation of growth in SBT, and the two-phase VBG yielded a significantly better fit. The results indicated that significant change occurs in the pattern of growth in relation to a VBG curve during the juvenile stages of the SBT life cycle, which may be related to the transition from a tightly schooling fish that spends substantial time in near and surface shore waters to one that is found primarily in more offshore and deeper waters. The results suggest that more complex growth models should be considered for other tunas and for other species that show a marked change in habitat use with age. The likelihood surface for the two-phase VBG model was found to be bimodal and some implications of this are investigated. Significant and substantial differences were found in the growth for fish spawned in the 1960s and in the 1980s, such that after age four there is a difference of about one year in the expected age of a fish of similar length which persists over the size range for which meaningful recapture data are available. This difference may be a density-dependent response as a consequence of the marked reduction in the SBT population. Given the key role that estimates of growth have in most stock assessments, the results indicate that there is a need both for the regular monitoring of growth rates and for provisions for changes in growth over time (possibly related to changes in abundance) in the stock assessment models used for SBT and other species.

Indirect estimates of natural mortality rate for arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) and darkblotched rockfish (Sebastes crameri)

Indirect estimates of instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) are widely used in stock assessment and fisheries management. They are essentially a form of meta-analysis, in which prior information on M and key life history parameters from a variety of stocks is used to estimate M for the stock in question.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.