A statistical model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We describe an empirical-statistical model of climates of the southwestern United States. Boundary conditions include sea surface temperatures, atmospheric transmissivity, and topography. Independent variables are derived from the boundary conditions along 1000-km paths of atmospheric circulation. ... Predictor equations are derived over a larger region than the application area to allow for the increased range of paleoclimate. This larger region is delimited by the autocorrelation properties of climatic data.

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Snow depth as an indicator of weather and climate in the Sierra Nevada

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The purpose of this study is to determine: (1) whether the cooperative station snow depth contains useful weather and climate information, (2) how cooperative snow depth variability is related to snowcourse variability, and (3) how it is related to other weather elements. From an examination of stations in the Sierra Nevada of California, it is clear that cooperative snow records and snowcourse records have consistent spatial and temporal variability. ... We show that high snow ratio (low density snow or high SD/Ppt) events have low temperatures and high amplitude atmospheric circulation patterns over the eastern North Pacific. In contrast, low snow ratio (high density or low SD/Ppt) events have warm temperatures and a zonal flow pattern with a southerly displaced storm track from Hawaii to the West Coast.

Winter climate variability and snowpack in the West

Snowpack is an important source of water supply in the western United States. This study examines the seasonal variability of an extensive history of snow observations over the western United States and Canada. It links variations in snowpack to variations in atmospheric circulation, surface temperature, and precipitation.

Decadal variability over the North Pacific Ocean [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): In this study we use ocean and atmosphere datasets from observations and from an ocean general circulation model integration to examine decadal time scale variability that is centered in the Pacific basin. We know that decadal variability is likely to have a strong expression in the Pacific basin; for example, a marked "shift" of cool season climate in the mid-1970s introduced major changes in Pacific SST and atmospheric circulation, along with many other physical and biological properties.

Interannual to decadal time-scale variations in glacier mass balance [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The mass balance of glaciers depends on the seasonal variation in precipitation, temperature, and insolation. For glaciers in western North America, these meteorological variables are influenced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the northern Pacific Ocean. The purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of the relationship between mass balance at glaciers in western North America and the large-scale atmospheric effects at interannual and decadal time scales.

Decadal hydroclimatic variability in the western coastal United States: temporal and spatial variations in precipitation, streamflow, and lake level

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We have analyzed streamflow variations recorded at 15 USGS gauging stations in California during the past 90 years or so. The anomalies (departures from the 1960-1990 mean discharge) of streamflow on annual-to-decadal time scales are strongly correlated with precipitation anomalies in each drainage basin. ... Although causes of the decadal climate (precipitation) variability are not known with certainty, the use of streamflow records may help us understand the relative strengths of moisture sources and shift of the jet stream in atmospheric circulation.

Atmospheric chlorofluoromethanes as tracers of ocean circulation and mixing: measurement and calibration techniques and studies in the Greenland and Norwegian seas

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An analytical system was designed and constructed for the rapid and accurate shipboard measurement of anthropogenic chlorofluoromethanes in seawater and in air, using electron capture gas chrometography. The distribution of these compounds in the marine atmosphere and the water column in the Greenland and Norwegian seas were studied during February and March, 1982. The compounds, dissolved in the ocean from the atmosphere, can be used as tracers of subsurface ocean circulation and mixing processes.

Co-oscillation of a fjord basin’s circulation with decade-long oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic regimes: Puget Sound 1916-'87 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic data collected during 1916-'87 in Puget Sound's Main Basin (~200 m x 5 km x 100 km) and approaches oscillate at low frequency between two regimes (I, II). The oscillation accounts for a large fraction of the interannual variability (41-75%) and the zero crossings between regimes span approximately a decade. ... The transition between regimes is accompanied by substantial changes in the horizontal pressure and density fields between the Pacific coast and the mixing zones leading to the Basin, as well as within the Basin itself.

Surface temperature and precipitation variations in the western U.S. and their relation to large scale circulation indices [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An analysis of the principal components of surface temperature and precipitation in the western U.S. is presented. Data consist of monthly mean temperature and total precipitation for 66 climate divisions west of the Continental Divide, for the years 1931-1984. The analysis is repeated for three separate combinations of months - the water year (Oct - Sept), the cool season (Oct - Mar) and the warm season (Apr - Sept). Inspection of monthly precipitation climatology indicates that selection of these combinations of months results in very few awkward splittings of the natural precipitation seasons found in the West.

Land surface hydrology in a general circulation model: global and regional fields needed for validation

For the last two decades most general circulation models (GCMs) have included some kind of surface hydrology submodel. The content of these submodels is becoming increasingly complex and realistic. It is still easy to identify defects in present treatments. Yet, to improve our ability to model the contribution of land hydrology to climate and climate change, we must be concerned not with just the surface hydrology submodel per se, but also with how it works in the overall context of the GCM.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.