Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Temporal and spatial changes in milfoil distribution and biomass associated with weevils in Fish Lake, WI

During the course of an eight year monitoring effort, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources documented a significant decline in milfoil biomass and distribution in Fish Lake, Wisconsin. Average milfoil biomass declined by 40- 50% from 374-524 g dw m -2 during 1991-93 to 265 g dw m -2 during both 1994 and 1995. Milfoil recovered fully in 1996- 98 to 446- 564 g dw m -2 . The size of the milfoil bed, as discerned from aerial photographs, shrank from a maximum coverage of 40 ha in 1991 to less than 20 ha during 1995. During the “crash” of 1994-95, milfoil plants exhibited typical signs of weevil-induced damage, including darkened, brittle, hollowed-out growing tips, and the arching and collapse of stems associated with loss of buoyancy. Monitoring of weevils and stem damage during 1995-98 showed highest densities and heaviest damage occurred near shore and subsequently fanned out into deeper water from core infestation sites each spring. The extent of milfoil stem damage was positively correlated with weevil densities (monthly sampling). However, weevil densities and stem damage were lower during 1995 (when milfoil biomass was in decline) than during 1996-98 (when milfoil biomass was fully recovered).

New fish populations as evidence of climate chage in former dry areas of the Pampa Region ( Southern South America).

Water bodies located at 34º 58' S, 62º 58' W formed after 1980 by 30 % increasing rainfall during the last half century, were colonized by ten fish species which are a subset of the commonest species living in the pampasic lagunas. These new populations imply a displacement of the West of Pampasian fishes to areas of the western basins previously lacking fish.

Cruise Report 69-S-3: Pelagic fish and trawling survey of Santa Barbara oil spill

(PDF contains 5 pages)

The mechanical effects of water flow on fish eggs and larvae

The impact of mechanical stresses upon ichthyoplankton entrained in power plant cooling systems has long been considered negligible. Arguments and evidence exist, however, to show that such a supposition is not universally true, especially in nuclear power plants. The mechanisms of mechanical damage can be detailed in terms of pressure change, acceleration, and shear stress with in the fluid flow field. Laboratory efforts to quantify the effects of mechanical stress have been very sparse. A well-planned bioassay is urgently needed. (PDF has 11 pages.)

Cruise Report 70-S-5: Big Game Fish

(PDF contains 4 pages)

International trade in live, ornamental "fish" in the US & Florida

The importance of international markets as a source of live, ornamental “fish” supply is growing due to more stringent wild-harvest regulations in Florida. In addition, foreign markets are increasing in importance as a source of demand for Florida purveyors of live, ornamental “fish”. Florida plays an important role in this growing international market. Trends in imports and exports of live, ornamental “fish” are described for two primary data sets: U.S. Customs and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. These trends are described primarily for the 1994-98 period for Florida and the United States. Florida imports and exports are described for the two major ports: Miami and Tampa. The most important trading countries are also described. This information will help Florida purveyors of live, ornamental “fish” better understand the international markets upon which they have become more dependent. (PDF has 18 pages)

Fish assemblages and indicator species: reef fishes off the southeastern United States

For many fish stocks, resource management cannot be based on stock assessment because data are insufficient-a situation that requires alternative approaches to management. One possible approach is to manage data-limited stocks as part of an assemblage and to determine the status of the entire unit by a data-rich indicator species. The utility of this approach was evaluated in analyses of 15 years of commercial and 34 years of recreational logbook data from reef fisheries off the southeastern United States coast. Multivariate statistical analyses successfully revealed three primary assemblages. Within assemblages, however, there was little evidence of synchrony in population dynamics of member species, and thus, no support for the use of indicator species. Nonetheless, assemblages could prove useful as management units. Their identification offers opportunities for implementing management to address such ecological considerations as bycatch and species interrelations.

Stock assessment of protogynous fish: evaluating measures of spawning biomass used to estimate biological reference points

In stock assessments, recruitment is typically modeled as a function of females only. For protogynous stocks, however, disproportionate fishing on males increases the possibility of reduced fertilization rates. To incorporate the importance of males in protogynous stocks, assessment models have been used to predict recruitment not just from female spawning biomass (Sf), but also from that of males (Sm) or both sexes (Sb). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the ability of these three measures to estimate biological reference points used in fishery management. Of the three, Sf provides best estimates if the potential for decreased fertilization is weak, whereas Sm is best only if the potential is very strong. In general, Sb estimates the true reference points most closely, which indicates that if the potential for decreased fertilization is moderate or unknown, Sb should be used in assessments of protogynous stocks. Moreover, for a broad range of scenarios, relative errors from Sf and Sb occur in opposite directions, indicating that estimates from these measures could be used to bound uncertainty.

Mercury in Florida Bay fish: spatial distribution of elevated concentrations and possible linkages to Everglades restoration

Health advisories are now posted in northern Florida Bay, adjacent to the Everglades, warning of high mercury concentrations in some species of gamefish. Highest concentrations of mercury in both forage fish and gamefish have been measured in the northeastern corner of Florida Bay, adjacent to the dominant freshwater inflows from the Everglades. Thirty percent of spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus Cuvier, 1830) analyzed exceeded Florida’s no consumption level of 1.5 μg g−1 mercury in this area. We hypothesized that freshwater draining the Everglades served as the major source of methylmercury entering the food web supporting gamefish. A lack of correlation between mercury concentrations and salinity did not support this hypothesis, although enhanced bioavailability of methylmercury is possible as freshwater is diluted with estuarine water. Stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur were measured in fish to elucidate the shared pathways of methylmercury and nutrient elements through the food web. These data support a benthic source of both methylmercury and nutrient elements to gamefish within the eastern bay, as opposed to a dominant watershed source. Ecological characteristics of the eastern bay, including active redox cycling in near-surface sediments without excessive sulfide production are hypothesized to promote methylmercury formation and bioaccumulation in the benthos. Methylmercury may then accumulate in gamefish through a food web supported by benthic microalgae, detritus, pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum Burkenroad, 1939), and other epibenthic feeders. Uncertainty remains as to the relative importance of watershed imports of methylmercury from the Everglades and in situ production in the bay, an uncertainty that needs resolution if the effects of Everglades restoration on mercury levels in fish are to be modeled and managed.

Estimating the Energy Density of Fish: The Importance of Ontogeny

Ontogenetic patterns in the percent dry weight (%DW) and energy density (joules per gram of wet weight) were studied in the early life stages of the subtropical estuarine and marine gray snapper Lutjanus griseus and the warmtemperate estuarine and marine spotted seatrout Cynoscion nebulosus. The %DW was variable for individuals of both species but increased significantly through larval to juvenile stages (<20% for fish ,50 mm standard length to 20–30% for fish >50 mm). The lipid percentage, which was determined only for gray snapper, was also variable between individuals but showed significant increase with body size. Strong relationships between percent dry weight and energy density were evident for both species; however, the slopes of regressions were significantly lower than in general multispecies models, demonstrating the need for species- and stagespecific energy density data in bioenergetics models.

Juvenile fish assemblages collected on unconsolidated sediments of the southeast United States continental shelf

Patterns were investigated in juvenile fish use of unconsolidated sediments on the southeast United States continental shelf off Georgia. Juvenile fish and environmental data were sampled at ten stations along a 110-km cross-shelf transect, including four stations surrounding Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (Gray’s Reef NMFS). Cross-shelf stations were sampled approximately quarterly from spring 2000 to winter 2002. Additional stations were sampled on three transects inshore of Gray’s Reef NMS and four transects offshore of the Sanctuary during three cruises to investigate along-shelf patterns in the juvenile fish assemblages. Samples were collected in beam trawls, and 121 juvenile taxa, of which 33 were reef-associated species, were identified. Correspondence analysis on untransformed juvenile fish abundance indicated a cross-shelf gradient in assemblages, and the station groupings and assemblages varied seasonally. During the spring, fall, and winter, three cross-shelf regions were identified: inner-shelf, mid-shelf, and outer-shelf regions. In the summer, the shelf consisted of a single juvenile fish assemblage. Water depth was the primary environmental variable correlated with cross-shelf assemblages. However, salinity, density, and water column stratification also correlated with the distribution of assemblages during the spring, fall, and winter, and along with temperature likely influenced the distribution of juvenile fish. No along-shelf spatial patterns were found in the juvenile fish assemblages, but the along-shelf dimension sampled was small (~60 km). Our results revealed that a number of commercially and recreationally important species used unconsolidated sediments on the shelf off Georgia as juvenile habitat. We conclude that management efforts would be improved through a greater recognition of the importance of these habitats to fish production and the interconnectedness of multiple habitats in the southeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem.

Analysis of Sample Frames and Subsampling Methods for Reef Fish Surveys

Introduction: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Biogeography Branch has conducted surveys of reef fish in the Caribbean since 1999. Surveys were initially undertaken to identify essential fish habitat, but later were used to characterize and monitor reef fish populations and benthic communities over time. The Branch’s goals are to develop knowledge and products on the distribution and ecology of living marine resources and provide resource managers, scientists and the public with an improved ecosystem basis for making decisions. The Biogeography Branch monitors reef fishes and benthic communities in three study areas: (1) St. John, USVI, (2) Buck Island, St. Croix, USVI, and (3) La Parguera, Puerto Rico. In addition, the Branch has characterized the reef fish and benthic communities in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary and around the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Reef fish data are collected using a stratified random sampling design and stringent measurement protocols. Over time, the sampling design has changed in order to meet different management objectives (i.e. identification of essential fish habitat vs. monitoring), but the designs have always remained: • Probabilistic – to allow inferences to a larger targeted population, • Objective – to satisfy management objectives, and • Stratified – to reduce sampling costs and obtain population estimates for strata. There are two aspects of the sampling design which are now under consideration and are the focus of this report: first, the application of a sample frame, identified as a set of points or grid elements from which a sample is selected; and second, the application of subsampling in a two-stage sampling design. To evaluate these considerations, the pros and cons of implementing a sampling frame and subsampling are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of each design on accuracy (bias), feasibility and sampling cost (precision). Further, this report presents an analysis of data to determine the optimal number of subsamples to collect if subsampling were used. (PDF contains 19 pages)

Fish Habitat Utilization Patterns and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Marine Protected Areas in Hawaii: Integration of NOAA Digital Benthic Habitat Mapping and Coral Reef Ecological Studies

Over the past four decades, the state of Hawaii has developed a system of eleven Marine Life Conservation Districts (MLCDs) to conserve and replenish marine resources around the state. Initially established to provide opportunities for public interaction with the marine environment, these MLCDs vary in size, habitat quality, and management regimes, providing an excellent opportunity to test hypotheses concerning marine protected area (MPA) design and function using multiple discreet sampling units. NOAA/NOS/NCCOS/Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Team developed digital benthic habitat maps for all MLCD and adjacent habitats. These maps were used to evaluate the efficacy of existing MLCDs for biodiversity conservation and fisheries replenishment, using a spatially explicit stratified random sampling design. Coupling the distribution of habitats and species habitat affinities using GIS technology elucidates species habitat utilization patterns at scales that are commensurate with ecosystem processes and is useful in defining essential fish habitat and biologically relevant boundaries for MPAs. Analysis of benthic cover validated the a priori classification of habitat types and provided justification for using these habitat strata to conduct stratified random sampling and analyses of fish habitat utilization patterns. Results showed that the abundance and distribution of species and assemblages exhibited strong correlations with habitat types. Fish assemblages in the colonized and uncolonized hardbottom habitats were found to be most similar among all of the habitat types. Much of the macroalgae habitat sampled was macroalgae growing on hard substrate, and as a result showed similarities with the other hardbottom assemblages. The fish assemblages in the sand habitats were highly variable but distinct from the other habitat types. Management regime also played an important role in the abundance and distribution of fish assemblages. MLCDs had higher values for most fish assemblage characteristics (e.g. biomass, size, diversity) compared with adjacent fished areas and Fisheries Management Areas (FMAs) across all habitat types. In addition, apex predators and other targeted resources species were more abundant and larger in the MLCDs, illustrating the effectiveness of these closures in conserving fish populations. Habitat complexity, quality, size and level of protection from fishing were important determinates of MLCD effectiveness with respect to their associated fish assemblages. (PDF contains 217 pages)

U.S. Caribbean fish trap fishery costs and earnings study

Executive Summary: This study describes the socio-economic characteristics of the U.S. Caribbean trap fishery that encompasses the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. In-person interviews were administered to one hundred randomly selected trap fishermen, constituting nearly 25% of the estimated population. The sample was stratified by geographic area and trap tier. The number of traps owned or fished to qualify for a given tier varied by island. In Puerto Rico, tier I consisted of fishermen who had between 1-40 fish traps, tier II was made up of fishermen who possessed between 41 and 100 fish traps, and tier III consisted of fishermen who held in excess of 100 fish traps. In St. Thomas and St. John, tier I was composed of fishermen who held between 1 and 50 fish traps, tier II consisted of fishermen who had between 51-150 fish traps and tier III was made up of fishermen who had in excess of 150 fish traps. Lastly, in St. Croix, tier I was made up of fishermen who had less than 20 fish traps and tier II consisted of fishermen who had 20 or more fish traps. The survey elicited information on household demographics, annual catch and revenue, trap usage, capital investment on vessels and equipment, fixed and variable costs, behavioral response to a hypothetical trap reduction program and the spatial distribution of traps. The study found that 79% of the sampled population was 40 years or older. The typical Crucian trap fisherman was older than their Puerto Rican and St. Thomian and St. Johnian counterparts. Crucian fishermen’s average age was 57 years whereas Puerto Rican fishermen’s average age was 51 years, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen’s average age was 48 years. As a group, St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen had 25 years of fishing experience, and Puerto Rican and Crucian fishermen had 30, and 29 years, respectively. Overall, 90% of the households had at least one dependent. The average number of dependents across islands was even, ranging between 2.8 in the district of St. Thomas and St. John and 3.4 in the district of St. Croix. The percentage utilization of catch for personal or family use was relatively low. Regionally, percentage use of catch for personal or family uses ranged from 2.5% in St. Croix to 3.8% in the St. Thomas and St. John. About 47% of the respondents had a high school degree. The majority of the respondents were highly dependent on commercial fishing for their household income. In St. Croix, commercial fishing made up 83% of the fishermen’s total household income, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John and Puerto Rico it contributed 74% and 68%, respectively. The contribution of fish traps to commercial fishing income ranged from 51% in the lowest trap tier in St. Thomas and St. John to 99% in the highest trap tier in St. Croix. On an island basis, the contribution of fish traps to fishing income was 75% in St. Croix, 61% in St. Thomas and St. John, and 59% in Puerto Rico. The value of fully rigged vessels ranged from $400 to $250,000. Over half of the fleet was worth $10,000 or less. The St. Thomas and St. John fleet reported the highest mean value, averaging $58,518. The Crucian and Puerto Rican fleets were considerably less valuable, averaging $19,831 and $8,652, respectively. The length of the vessels ranged from 14 to 40 feet. Fifty-nine percent of the sampled vessels were at least 23 feet in length. The average length of the St. Thomas and St. John fleet was 28 feet, whereas the fleets based in St. Croix and Puerto Rico averaged 21 feet. The engine’s propulsion ranged from 8 to 400 horsepower (hp). The mean engine power was 208 hp in St. Thomas and St. John, 108 hp in St. Croix, and 77 hp in Puerto Rico. Mechanical trap haulers and depth recorders were the most commonly used on-board equipment. About 55% of the sampled population reported owning mechanical trap haulers. In St. Thomas and St. John, 100% of the respondents had trap haulers compared to 52% in Puerto Rico and 20% in St. Croix. Forty-seven percent of the fishermen surveyed stated having depth recorders. Depth recorders were most common in the St. Thomas and St. John fleet (80%) and least common in the Puerto Rican fleet (37%). The limited presence of emergency position indication radio beacons (EPIRBS) and radar was the norm among the fish trap fleet. Only 8% of the respondents had EPIRBS and only 1% had radar. Interviewees stated that they fished between 1 and 350 fish traps. Puerto Rican respondents fished on average 39 fish traps, in contrast to St. Thomian and St. Johnian and Crucian respondents, who fished 94 and 27 fish traps, respectively. On average, Puerto Rican respondents fished 11 lobster traps, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian respondents fished 46 lobster traps. None of the Crucian respondents fished lobster traps. The number of fish traps built or purchased ranged between 0 and 175, and the number of lobster traps built or bought ranged between 0 and 200. Puerto Rican fishermen on average built or purchased 30 fish traps and 14 lobster traps, and St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen built or bought 30 fish traps and 11 lobster traps. Crucian fishermen built or bought 25 fish traps and no lobster traps. As a group, fish trap average life ranged between 1.3 and 5 years, and lobster traps lasted slightly longer, between 1.5 and 6 years. The study found that the chevron or arrowhead style was the most common trap design. Puerto Rican fishermen owned an average of 20 arrowhead traps. St. Thomian and St. Johnian and Crucian fishermen owned an average of 44 and 15 arrowhead fish traps, respectively. The second most popular trap design was the square trap style. Puerto Rican fishermen had an average of 9 square traps, whereas St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen had 33 traps and Crucian fishermen had 2 traps. Antillean Z (or S) -traps, rectangular and star traps were also used. Although Z (or S) -traps are considered the most productive trap design, fishermen prefer the smaller-sized arrowhead and square traps because they are easier and less expensive to build, and larger numbers of them can be safely deployed. The cost of a fish trap, complete with rope and buoys, varied significantly due to the wide range of construction materials utilized. On average, arrowhead traps commanded $94 in Puerto Rico, $251 in St. Thomas and St. John, and $119 in St. Croix. The number of trips per week ranged between 1 and 6. However, 72% of the respondents mentioned that they took two trips per week. On average, Puerto Rican fishermen took 2.1 trips per week, St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen took 1.4 trips per week, and Crucian fishermen took 2.5 trips per week. Most fishing trips started at dawn and finished early in the afternoon. Over 82% of the trips lasted 8 hours or less. On average, Puerto Rican fishermen hauled 27 fish traps per trip whereas St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen and Crucian fishermen hauled 68 and 26 fish traps per trip, respectively. The number of traps per string and soak time varied considerably across islands. In St. Croix, 84% of the respondents had a single trap per line, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John only 10% of the respondents had a single trap per line. Approximately, 43% of Puerto Rican fishermen used a single trap line. St. Thomian and St. Johnian fishermen soaked their traps for 6.9 days while Puerto Rican and Crucian fishermen soaked their traps for 5.7 and 3.6 days, respectively. The heterogeneity of the industry was also evidenced by the various economic surpluses generated. The survey illustrated that higher gross revenues did not necessarily translate into higher net revenues. Our analysis also showed that, on average, vessels in the trap fishery were able to cover their cash outlays, resulting in positive vessel income (i.e., financial profits). In Puerto Rico, annual financial profits ranged from $4,760 in the lowest trap tier to $32,467 in the highest tier, whereas in St. Thomas and St. John annual financial profits ranged from $3,744 in the lowest tier to $13,652 in the highest tier. In St. Croix, annual financial profits ranged between $9,229 and $15,781. The survey also showed that economic profits varied significantly across tiers. Economic profits measure residual income after deducting the remuneration required to keep the various factors of production in their existing employment. In Puerto Rico, annual economic profits ranged from ($9,339) in the lowest trap tier to $ 8,711 in the highest trap tier. In St. Thomas and St. John, annual economic profits ranged from ($7,920) in the highest tier to ($18,486) in the second highest tier. In St. Croix, annual economic profits ranged between ($7,453) to $10,674. The presence of positive financial profits and negative economic profits suggests that higher economic returns could be earned from a societal perspective by redirecting some of these scarce capital and human resources elsewhere in the economy. Furthermore, the presence of negative economic earnings is evidence that the fishery is overcapitalized and that steps need to be taken to ensure the long-run economic viability of the industry. The presence of positive financial returns provides managers with a window of opportunity to adopt policies that will strengthen the biological and economic performance of the fishery while minimizing any adverse impacts on local fishing communities. Finally, the document concludes by detailing how the costs and earnings information could be used to develop economic models that evaluate management proposals. (PDF contains 147 pages)