31 resultados para Agriculture Forecasting
Resumo:
This study estimated the adoption rate of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technologies in Bangladesh and their impact on poverty and fish and food consumption in adopting households. We used a novel, simulation-based approach to impact assessment called Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD). We used the TOA-MD model to demonstrate how it is possible to use available data to estimate adoption rates in relevant populations, and to quantify impacts on distributional outcomes such as poverty and food security, thus demonstrating ex ante the potential for further investment in technology dissemination. The analysis used baseline and end-of-project survey data from WorldFish-implemented Development of Sustainable Aquaculture Project (DSAP), promoting IAA. This dataset was used to simulate adoption and assess its impacts on poverty and food security in the target population. We found that, if adopted, IAA had a significant positive impact on reducing poverty and improving food security and income.
Resumo:
There are increasing requirements for impact assessment by development partners in order to increase the accountability and effectiveness of research and development projects. Impact assessment research has been dominated by conventional economic methods. This context challenges agricultural research organizations to develop and apply alternative impact assessment methods incorporating economic, social, and environmental impact components. In this study, we use the Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) model to evaluate the impact of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) adoption in Malawi. The study demonstrated that with a minimal data set, the TOA-MD model can be applied to predict and assess the adoption rates of new technologies and practices as well as their economic and non-economic impacts.
Resumo:
Historic map of the River Lune Fishery District.
Resumo:
Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.
Resumo:
A realistic alternative to traditional technology development and transfer has been utilized by the International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management (ICLARM) to integrate pond fish culture into low-input farming systems in Malawi. Resource mapping was used to assess farm resources and constraints and introduce the concept of integrated resource management (IRM), the synergistic movement of resources between and among farm and household enterprises. Farmer-led IRM research projects are conducted on-farm and monitored by researchers through direct observation and on-station simulation of constraints and management practices. Technology-adoption rates by farmers involved in a pilot activity was 65% compared to 0% by farmers exposed only to top-down extension approaches. Within two years of adoption, every participating farmer had transferred the technology to an average of four other farmers without the involvement of the extension services.
Resumo:
ICLARM introduced integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) in Sakata, Malawi three years ago. Since that time, and without extension support, the number of farmers with ponds increased from 4 in 1993/94 to 12 in 1995/96. To learn why and how IAA is spreading, a study of impact and adoption was conducted in the 1995/96 production season. Interviews were conducted with farmers to discuss lAA and collect data on farm function through the use of bioresource flow diagrams. Motivations given by farmers as to why they adopted IAA were to improve household nutrition and income. Constraints to adoption identified by farmers were availability of labor and capital to purchase inputs
Resumo:
This report is a contribution to an assessment of the current status of agriculture in Cambodia, focusing on the linkages between agriculture and water, mainly in the form of irrigation. It seeks to view current government policies on agriculture and irrigation in the context of experiences on the ground, as communicated through the many field studies that cover varied aspects of performance in the agriculture sector and irrigation schemes. In an effort to identify future research areas, this review examines the status quo, and connects or disconnects with stated policy through a broad lens to capture strengths and challenges across crop production, irrigation management and post-harvest contexts. It places irrigation under scrutiny in terms of its value as a major area of government expenditure in recent years, and asks whether it presents the best potential for future gains in productivity, when compared with the prospects offered by investments in other aspects of agriculture. The fieldwork and review of current literature that form the basis of this report were undertaken at the request of, and partly funded by, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). It is also intended to contribute knowledge to the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) led by WorldFish, who co-funded the activities.