The California flooding rains during February, 1986 [abstract]

After an unusually strong and persistent pattern of atmospheric circulation over the United State[s] in Fall 1985, it became quite changeable (although high amplitude anomalies still prevailed). Following a fall that was cold in the West and warm in the East with heavy precipitation, a high pressure ridge set in over the West during December, with generally light precipitation over most of the country. Throughout the winter, the central North Pacific was very active, with large negative atmospheric pressure anomalies centered at about 45°N, l60°W. This activity may have been encouraged by an enhanced meridional eastern North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, with positive SST anomalies in the subtropics and negative anomalies in midlatitudes. However, in January, the western high pressure ridge remained strong and temperatures were remarkably warm, increasing the threat of drought in California after the two previous dry winters. However, in February, storms from a greatly expanded and southerly displaced Aleutian Low broke into the West Coast. An unusual siege from February 11 to February 20 flooded central and northern California, with very heavy precipitation and record to near-record runoff. Upwards of 50 percent of annual average precipitation fell on locations from the upper San Joaquin to the Feather River drainage basins, and the largest flow since observations began in the early 1900's was recorded on the Sacramento River at Sacramento. The atmospheric pattern that was responsible for this remarkable stormy spell developed when the western high pressure retrograded to the northwest into the Aleutians, accompanied by the strengthened and southerly extended storm tract that moved into California. Although exact details vary from case to case, this episode displayed meteorological conditions similar to those in several other historical California winter flood events. These included a long duration of very strong westerly to southwesterly winds over a long subtropical fetch into California. Much of the precipitation during this series of storms was orographically induced by the moisture laden flow rising over the Sierra ranges. Due to the warm air mass, snow levels were relatively high (about 7500 feet) during the heaviest precipitation, resulting in copious runoff.

The great February 1986 flood [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There were many similarities between the February 1986 storm and that of December 1964 and also December 1955. The 1964 storm hit hardest a little further north and the North Coast took the brunt of that storm. December 1955 also produced higher north coastal area runoff. December 1955 produced greater peaks in the central part of the state than the 1964 flood and is perhaps more comparable south of the Lake Tahoe-American River area. But the real surprise this time was the volume. Four reservoirs, Folsom, Black Butte, Pardee, and Comanche, were filled completely and became surcharged (storing more water than the designed capacity). The 10 day total rainfall amounted to half the normal annual totals at many precipitation stations. The February 1986 flood is a vivid reminder of the extremes of California climate and the value of the extensive system of flood control works in the state. Before the storm, especially in January, there was much concern about the dryness of the water year. Then with the deluge, California's flood control systems were tested. By and large the system worked preventing untold damage and misery for most dwellers in the flat lands.

Comments on the nature of persistence in dendrochronologic records with implications for hydrology and climatology [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Jurate Landwehr discussed the use of surrogate hydrologic records, specifically dendrochronologic records, to study the nature of persistence which is characteristic of hydrologic phenomenon. These proxy records are generally considered to correspond to such hydrologic measures as mean annual discharge but are much longer in length than directly measured hydrologic records. Consequently, they allow one to explore questions pertaining to the structure of candidate stochastic processes with greater validity than permitted by the latter.

Spatial coherence and persistence in annual streamflow in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.

Reconstructed drought history, north-central Great Basin, 1600-1982 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tree-ring chronologies, developed from cores from Pinyon pines growing on climatically sensitive sites in the north-central Great Basin, have been used to reconstruct precipitation and drought histories of the area from A.D. 1600 to 1982. Analysis of these hydrologic time series helps to place current climatic conditions into the perspective of the past 383 years (since 1600). ... The years 1934 and 1959 were the first and fourth driest while 1934 had the lowest July Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) of the reconstructed records. Nevertheless, the decade of the 1930's is only the seventh driest since 1600; the decade 1953-1962 ranks as the second driest. The driest non-overlapping decade since 1600 was 1856-1865. Interestingly, the second wettest decade was 1932-1941. An examination of 30-year mean precipitation data shows that the driest 30-year period was 1871-1900; 1931-1960 ranks as the fourth driest. The current 30-year period (1951-1980) ranks twelfth.

Extreme tides and sea levels in California [abstract]

During the winter of 1982-1983, a combination of high tides, higher than normal sea level and storm-induced waves were devastating to the coast of California. Damage estimates for public and private property destruction in the coastal counties of California totaled over $100,000,000. Much higher than average sea levels played a very important contributory role in the flooding damage. These unusually high sea levels were due to a combination of higher than normal mixed layer temperature associated with a strong, 2-year El Nino, storm surge due to low atmospheric pressure and persistent winds, and the cumulative effect of steady, "global" rise in relative sea level. Higher than average high tides coincided to an unusual extent with the peak sea levels reached during the numerous storms between November 1982 and March 1983. Important cyclical variations occur in California's mixed tide regime and the consequences of these on extreme tides have not been properly considered previously. In fact, erroneous "predictions" of much higher tides in the 1990's appearing in the popular press during the 1982-83 flooding, caused much public apprehension.

U.S. west coast relative sea levels from tide gauges [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Examining secular changes in relative sea level along the U.S. west coast, we have identified strong tectonic signals. Tectonism exists not only on a coherent plate-wide scale (assuming a rigid plate approximation), but also on a sub-plate scale. In fact, differential tectonism between exotic or suspect geological terrain explains much of the spatial patterns of west coast tide-gauge data. Peltier's isostatic model appears not to explain the spatial pattern, implying glacio-isostatic adjustment is not the dominant contribution to the low-frequency signals. Eustatic effects cannot be identified unambiguously. These studies suggest several major questions/observations with regard to relative sea-level studies ...

Seasonality in the coastal ocean of North America, 35°N - 48°N [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The seasonal cycles of coastal wind stress, adjusted sea level height (ASL), shelf currents and water temperatures off the west coast of North America (35°N to 48°N) were estimated by fitting annual and semiannual harmonics to data from 1981-1983. Longer records of monthly ASL indicate that these two harmonics adequately represent the long-term monthly average seasonal cycle, and that the current measurement period is long enough to define the seasonal cycles, with relatively small errors in magnitude and phase.

Climatic factors associated with phytoplankton community succession during and after the 1977 drought for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary [abstract]

Principal coordinates analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to determine the environmental factors associated with the decline in phytoplankton production during and after the 1977 drought for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary. Physical, chemical and biological data were collected semimonthly or monthly during the spring-summer between 1973 and 1982 from 15 sampling sites located throughout the Bay-Delta. A decline in phytoplankton community diversity and density during the 1977 drought and subsequent years (1978 through 1981) was described using principal coordinates analysis. The best multiple regression which described the changes in phytoplankton community succession contained the variables water temperature, wind velocity and ortho-phosphate concentration. Together these variables accounted for 61 percent of the variation in the phytoplankton community among years described by principal coordinates analysis. An increase in water temperature, wind velocity and ortho-phosphate concentration within the Bay-Delta, beginning in June 1976 and continuing through 1981, was demonstrated using weighted moving averages. From the strong association between phytoplankton community succession and climatic variables it was hypothesized that the decline in phytoplankton production during and after the 1977 drought was associated with climatic changes within the northeast Pacific.