Age and length composition of Columbia Basin chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon at Bonneville Dam in 2001

In 2001, representative samples of adult Columbia Basin chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), sockeye (O. nerka), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) populations at Bonneville Dam were collected. Fish were trapped, anesthetized, sampled for scales and biological data, revived, and then released adult migrating salmonids. Scales were examined to estimate age composition; the results contributed to an ongoing database for age class structure of Columbia Basin salmon populations. Based on scale analysis of chinook salmon, four-year-old fish (from brood year [BY] 1997) comprised 88% of the spring chinook, 67% of the summer chinook, and 42% of the Bright fall chinook salmon population. Five-year-old fish (BY 1996) comprised 9% of the spring chinook, 14% of the summer chinook, and 9% of the fall chinook salmon population. The sockeye salmon population at Bonneville was predominantly four-year-old fish (81%), with 18% returning as five-year-olds in 2001. The coho salmon population was 96% three-year-old fish (Age 1.1). Length analysis of the 2001 returns indicated that chinook salmon with a stream-type life history are larger (mean length) than the chinook salmon with an ocean-type life history. Trends in mean length over the sampling period for returning 2001 chinook salmon were analyzed. Chinook salmon of age classes 0.2 and 1.3 show a significant increase in mean length over time. Age classes 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.4 show no significant change over time. A year class regression over the past 12 years of data was used to predict spring, summer, and Bright fall chinook salmon population sizes for 2002. Based on three-year-old returns, the relationship predicts four-year-old returns of 132,600 (± 46,300, 90% predictive interval [PI]) spring chinook and 44,200 (± 11,700, 90% PI) summer chinook salmon for the 2002 runs. Based on four-year-old returns, the relationship predicts five-year-old returns of 87,800 (± 54,500, 90% PI) spring, 33,500 (± 11,500, 90% PI) summer, and 77,100 (± 25,800, 90% PI) Bright fall chinook salmon for the 2002 runs. The 2002 run size predictions should be used with caution; some of these predictions are well beyond the range of previously observed data.

Age and length composition of Columbia Basin chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon at Bonneville Dam in 2000

In 2000, representative samples of adult Columbia Basin chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), sockeye (O. nerka), and coho salmon (O. kisutch), populations were collected at Bonneville Dam. Fish were trapped, anesthetized, sampled for scales and biological data, allowed to revive, and then released. Scales were examined to estimate age composition and the results contribute to an ongoing database for age class structure of Columbia Basin salmon populations. Based on scale analysis, four-year-old fish (from brood year (BY) 1996) were estimated to comprise 83% of the spring chinook, 31% of the summer chinook, and 32% of the upriver bright fall chinook salmon population. Five-year-old fish (BY 1995) were estimated to comprise 2% of the spring chinook, 26% of the summer chinook, and 40% of the fall chinook salmon population. Three-year-old fish (BY 1997) were estimated to comprise 14% of the spring chinook, 42% of the summer chinook, and 17% of the fall chinook salmon population. Two-year-olds accounted for approximately 11% of the fall chinook population. The sockeye salmon population sampled at Bonneville was predominantly four-year-old fish (95%), and the coho salmon population was 99.9% three-year-old fish (Age 1.1). Length analysis of the 2000 returns indicated that chinook salmon with a stream-type life history are larger (mean length) than the chinook salmon with an ocean-type life history. Trends in mean length over the sampling period were also analysis for returning 2000 chinook salmon. Fish of age classes 0.2, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 have a significant increase in mean length over time. Age classes 0.3 and 0.4 have no significant change over time and age 0.1 chinook salmon had a significant decrease in mean length over time. A year class regression over the past 11 years of data was used to predict spring and summer chinook salmon population sizes for 2001. Based on three-year-old returns, the relationship predicts four-year-old returns of 325,000 (± 111,600, 90% Predictive Interval [PI]) spring chinook and 27,800 (± 29,750, 90% PI) summer chinook salmon. Based on four-year-old returns, the relationship predicts five-year-old returns of 54,300 (± 40,600, 90% PI) spring chinook and 11,000 (± 3,250, 90% PI) summer chinook salmon. The 2001 run size predictions used in this report should be used with caution, these predictions are well beyond the range of previously observed data.

Age and length composition of Columbia Basin chinook, sockeye, and coho salmon at Bonneville Dam in 2002

In 2002, representative samples of migrating Columbia Basin chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), sockeye (O. nerka), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) adult populations were collected at Bonneville Dam. Fish were trapped, anesthetized, sampled for scales and biological data, revived, and then released. Scales were examined to estimate age composition; the results contributed to an ongoing database for age class structure of Columbia Basin salmon populations. Based on scale analysis of chinook salmon, four-year-old fish (from brood year [BY] 1998) comprised 86% of the spring chinook, 51% of the summer chinook, and 51% of the bright fall chinook salmon population. Five-year-old fish (BY 1997) comprised 13% of the spring chinook, 43% of the summer chinook, and 11% of the bright fall chinook salmon population. The sockeye salmon population at Bonneville was predominantly five-year-old fish (55%), with 40% returning as four-year-olds in 2002. For the coho salmon population, 88% of the population was three-year-old fish of age class 1.1, while 12% were age class 1.0. Length analysis of the 2002 returns indicated that chinook salmon with a stream-type life history are larger (mean length) at age than the chinook salmon with an ocean-type life history. Trends in mean length over the sampling period for returning 2002 chinook salmon were analyzed. Chinook salmon of age classes 1.2 and 1.3 show a significant increase in mean length over the duration of the migration. A year class regression over the past 14 years of data was used to predict spring, summer, and bright fall chinook salmon population sizes for 2003. Based on three-year-old returns, the relationship predicts four-year-old returns of 54,200 (± 66,600, 90% predictive interval [PI]) spring chinook, 23,800 (± 19,100, 90% PI) summer, and 169,100 (± 139,500, 90% PI) bright fall chinook salmon for the 2003 runs. Based on four-year-old returns, the relationship predicts five-year-old returns of 36,300 (± 35,400, 90% PI) spring, 63,800 (± 10,300, 90% PI) summer, and 91,100 (± 69,400, 90% PI) bright fall chinook salmon for the 2003 runs. The 2003 run size predictions should be used with caution; some of these predictions are well beyond the range of previously observed data.

The geographic basis for population structure in Fraser River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

We surveyed variation at 13 microsatellite loci in approximately 7400 chinook salmon sampled from 52 spawning sites in the Fraser River drainage during 1988–98 to examine the spatial and temporal basis of population structure in the watershed. Genetically discrete chinook salmon populations were associated with almost all spawning sites, although gene flow within some tributaries prevented or limited differentiation among spawning groups. The mean FST value over 52 samples and 13 loci surveyed was 0.039. Geographic structuring of populations was apparent: distinct groups were identified in the upper, middle, and lower Fraser River regions, and the north, south, and lower Thompson River regions. The geographically and temporally isolated Birkenhead River population of the lower Fraser region was sufficiently genetically distinctive to be treated as a separate region in a hierarchial analysis of gene diversity. Approximately 95% of genetic variation was contained within populations, and the remainder was accounted for by differentiation among regions (3.1%), among populations within regions (1.3%), and among years within populations (0.5%).Analysis of allelic diversity and private alleles did not support the suggestion that genetically distinctive populations of chinook salmon in the south Thompson were the result of postglacial hybridization of ocean-type and stream-type chinook in the Fraser River drainage. However, the relatively small amount of differentiation among Fraser River chinook salmon populations supports the suggestion that gene flow among genetically distinct groups of postglacial colonizing groups of chinook salmon has occurred, possibly prior to colonization of the Fraser River drainage.

Evaluation and application of microsatellites for population identification of Fraser River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Variation at 13 microsatellite loci was previously surveyed in approximately 7400 chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) sampled from 50 localities in the Fraser River drainage in southern British Columbia. Evaluation of the utility of the microsatellite variation for population-specific stock identification applications indicated that the accuracy of the stock composition estimates generally improved with an increasing number of loci used in the estimation procedure, but an increase in accuracy was generally marginal after eight loci were used. With 10–14 populations in a simulated fishery sample, the mean error in population-specific estimated stock composition with a 50-popula-tion baseline was <1.4%. Identification of individuals to specific populations was highest for lower Fraser River and lower and North Thompson River populations; an average of 70% of the individual fish were correctly assigned to specific populations. The average error of the estimated percentage for the seven populations present in a coded-wire tag sample was 2% per population. Estimation of stock composition in the lower river commercial net fishery prior to June is of key local fishery management interest. Chinook salmon from the Chilcotin River and Nicola River drainages were important contributors to the early commercial fishery in the lower river because they comprised approximately 50% of the samples from the net fishery prior to mid April.

Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.