Regulation of primary production in the Gulf of California through interaction of large-scale and local ocean processes [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The suppression of primary productivity observed in eastern boundary ecosystems of the Pacific during El Nino episodes does not occur throughout the Gulf of California. On the contrary, analysis of the modern siliceous phytoplankton record from annually layered sediments and compilation of available primary productivity measurements indicate that production is significantly increased in the central Gulf during El Nino years compared to anti-El Nino years. Integrated observations of biological and physical variability during the spring of 1983, under the influence of the strong El Nino, show that very high primary productivity occurred along the eastern margin of the central Gulf. This resulted from the upwelling of a nutrient rich source provided by the locally formed Gulf water mass originating in the northern Gulf. Lower productivity and phytoplankton biomass were associated with the anomalous penetration of Tropical Surface Water along the western side of the Gulf.

Trends and long-term variability of ocean properties at Ocean Station P in the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

Twenty-seven years (1956-1983) of oceanographic data collected at Ocean Station P (50°N/145°W), as well as supplementary data obtained in its neighborhood, have been examined for trends and interannual variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that the water is warming and freshening and that the isopycnal surfaces are deepening. Trends in oxyty are mostly not significant. The most common periods for the interannual variability appear to be 2 1/2 and 6-7 years. The vertical movement of water accounts for one half of the changes in temperature and salinity and 30% of those in oxyty. Other factors, such as a shift of water masses, may also be important.

Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java

The effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly [SSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997–2000, which included the 1997–98 El Niño and 1999–2000 La Niña events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceanographic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Niña, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from –21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m–3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997–98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70–80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997–2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997–98 El Niño event.

Reproductive potential of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Indian Ocean

The reproductive biology of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Indian Ocean was investigated from samples collected in 2009 and 2010. In our study, 1012 female Yellowfin Tuna were sampled: 320 fish on board a purse seiner and 692 fish at a Seychelles cannery. We assessed the main biological parameters that describe reproductive potential: maturity, spawning seasonality, fish condition, and fecundity. The length at which 50% of the female Yellowfin Tuna population matures (L50) was estimated at 75 cm in fork length (FL) when the maturity threshold was established at the cortical alveolar stage of oocyte development. To enable comparison with previous studies, L50 also was estimated with maturity set at the vitellogenic stage of oocyte development; this assessment resulted in a higher value of L50 at 102 cm FL. The main spawning season, during which asynchrony in reproductive timing among sizes was observed, was November–February and a second peak occurred in June. Smaller females (<100 cm FL) had shorter spawning periods (December to February) than those (November to February and June) of large individuals, and signs of skip-spawning periods were observed among small females. The Yellowfin Tuna followed a “capital-income” breeder strategy during ovarian development, by mobilizing accumulated energy while using incoming energy from feeding. The mean batch fecundity for females 79–147 cm FL was estimated at 3.1 million oocytes, and the mean relative batch fecundity was 74.4 oocytes per gram of gonad-free weight. Our results, obtained with techniques defined more precisely than techniques used in previous studies in this region, provide an improved understanding of the reproductive cycle of Yellowfin Tuna in the western Indian Ocean.

Guide to the identification of larval and early juvenile pricklebacks (Perciformes: Zoarcoidei: Stichaeidae) in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea

Stichaeidae, commonly referred to as pricklebacks, are intertidal and subtidal fishes primarily of the North Pacific Ocean. Broad distribution in relatively inaccessible and undersampled habitats has contributed to a general lack of information about this family. In this study, descriptions of early life history stages are presented for 25 species representing 18 genera of stichaeid fishes from the northeastern Pacific Ocean, Bering Sea, and Arctic Ocean Basin. Six of these species also occur in the North Atlantic Ocean. Larval stages of 16 species are described for the first time. Additional information or illustrations intended to augment previous descriptions are provided for nine species. For most taxa, we present adult and larval distributions, descriptions of morphometric, meristic, and pigmentation characters, and species comparisons, and we provide illustrations for preflexion through postflexion or transformation stages. New counts of meristic features are reported for several species.

Linking elements of the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) with the planned National Water Quality Monitoring Network. Proceedings from the NOAA-Supported workshop 19-21 September 2005

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in cooperation with the New Jersey Marine Sciences Consortium (NJMSC), hosted a workshop at Rutgers University on 19-21 September 2005 to explore ways to link the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) to the emerging infrastructure of the National Water Quality Monitoring Network (NWQMN). Participating partners included the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association, U.S. Geological Survey, Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observing Laboratory, and the New Jersey Sea Grant College. The workshop was designed to highlight the importance of ecological and human health linkages in the movement of materials, nutrients, organisms and contaminants along the Delaware Bay watershed-estuary-coastal waters gradient (hereinafter, the “Delaware Bay Ecosystem [DBE]”), and to address specific water quality issues in the mid-Atlantic region, especially the area comprising the Delaware River drainage and near-shore waters. Attendees included federal, state and municipal officials, coastal managers, members of academic and research institutions, and industry representatives. The primary goal of the effort was to identify key management issues and related scientific questions that could be addressed by a comprehensive IOOS-NWQMN infrastructure (US Commission on Ocean Policy 2004; U.S. Ocean Action Plan 2004). At a minimum, cooperative efforts among the three federal agencies (NOAA, USGS and EPA) involved in water quality monitoring were required. Further and recommended by the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, outreach to states, regional organizations, and tribes was necessary to develop an efficient system of data gathering, quality assurance and quality control protocols, product development, and information dissemination.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean and estuarine waters of the U.S. South Atlantic Bight: 2000-2004

In March-April 2004, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and State of Florida (FL) conducted a study to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) portion of the U.S. continental shelf and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to West Palm Beach, Florida and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). Conditions of these offshore waters are compared to those of southeastern estuaries, based on data from similar EMAP/NCA surveys conducted in 2000-2004 by EPA, NOAA, and partnering southeastern states (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) (NCA database for estuaries, EPA Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze FL). Data from a total of 747 estuarine stations are included in this database. As for the offshore sites, the estuarine samples were collected using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal EMAP/NCA surveys including the probabilistic sampling design and multiple indicators of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthos and fish). The majority of the SAB had high levels of DO in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of "good" water quality. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at all sites throughout the coastal-ocean survey area and in 76% of estuarine waters. Twenty-one percent of estuarine bottom waters had moderate levels of DO between 2 and 5 mg L-1 and 3% had DO levels below 2 mg L-1. The majority of sites with DO in the low range considered to be hypoxic (< 2 mg L-1) occurred in North Carolina estuaries. There also was a notable concentration of stations with moderate DO levels (2 – 5 mg L-1) in Georgia and South Carolina estuaries. Approximately 58% of the estuarine area had moderate levels of chlorophyll a (5-10 μg L-1) and about 8% of the area had higher levels, in excess of 10 μg L-1, indicative of eutrophication. The elevated chlorophyll a levels appeared to be widespread throughout the estuaries of the region. In contrast, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of chlorophyll a with 100% of the offshore survey area having values < 5 μg L-1.

Nutrient enhanced coastal ocean productivity in the north Gulf of Mexico: understanding the effects of nutrients on a coastal ecosystem

The continental shelf adjacent to the Mississippi River is a highly productive system, often referred to as the fertile fisheries crescent. This productivity is attributed to the effects of the river, especially nutrient delivery. In the later decades of the 2oth century, though, changes in the system were becoming evident. Nutrient loads were seen to be increasing and reports of hypoxia were becoming more frequent. During most recent summers, a broad area (up to 20,000 krn2) of near bottom, inner shelf waters immediately west of the Mississippi River delta becomes hypoxic (dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 2 mgll). In 1990, the Coastal Ocean Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration initiated the Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) study of this area to test the hypothesis that anthropogenic nutrient addition to the coastal ocean has contributed to coastal eutrophication with a significant impact on water quality. Three major goals of the study were to determine the degree to which coastal productivity in the region is enhanced by terrestrial nutrient input, to determine the impact of enhanced productivity on water quality, and to determine the fate of fixed carbon and its impact on living marine resources. The study involved 49 federal and academic scientists from 14 institutions and cost $9.7 million. Field work proceeded from 1990 through 1993 and analysis through 1996, although some analyses continue to this day. The Mississippi River system delivers, on average, 19,000 m3/s of water to the northern Gulf of Mexico. The major flood of the river system occurs in spring following snow melt in the upper drainage basin. This water reaches the Gulf of Mexico through the Mississippi River birdfoot delta and through the delta of the Atchafalaya River. Much of this water flows westward along the coast as a highly stratified coastal current, the Louisiana Coastal Current, isolated from the bottom by a strong halocline and from mid-shelf waters by a strong salinity front. This stratification maintains dissolved and particulate matter from the rivers, as well as recycled material, in a well-defined flow over the inner shelf. It also inhibits the downward mixing of oxygenated surface waters from the surface layer to the near bottom waters. This highly stratified flow is readily identifiable by its surface turbidity, as it carries much of the fine material delivered with the river discharge and resuspended by nearshore wave activity. A second significant contribution to the turbidity of the surface waters is due to phytoplankton in these waters. This turbidity reduces the solar radiation penetrating to depth through the water column. These two aspects of the coastal current, isolation of the inner shelf surface waters and maintenance of a turbid surface layer, precondition the waters for the development of near bottom summer hypoxia.

Bibliography of synthesis documents on selected coastal ocean topics

This compilation of references to works which synthesize information on coastal topics is intended to be useful to resource managers in decision making processes. However, the utility must be understand in terms of its limited coverage. The bibliography is not inclusive of all the published materials on the topics selected. Coverage is clearly defined in the following paragraph. The time span of the bibliography is limited to references that were published from I983 to 1993, except for a last-minute addition of a few 1994 publications. All searches were done in mid- to late-1993. The bibliography was compiled from searches done on the following DIALOG electronic databases: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts, BlOSlS Previews, Dissertation Abstracts Online, Life Sciences Collection, NTlS (National Technical lnformation Service), Oceanic Abstracts, Pollution Abstracts, SciSearch, and Water Resources Abstracts. In addition, two NOAA electronic datases were searched: the NOAA Library and lnformation Catalog and the NOAA Sea Grant Depository Database. Synthesis of information is not an ubiquitous term used in database development. In order to locate syntheses of required coastal topics, 89 search terms were used in combinations which required 10 searches from each file. From the nearly 6,000 citations which resulted from the electronic searches, the most appropriate were selected to produce this bibliography. The document was edited and indexed using Wordperfect software. When available, an abstract has been included. Every abstract was edited. The bibliography is subdivided into four main topics or sections: ecosystems, coastal water body conditions, natural disasters, and resource management. In the ecosystems section, emphasis is placed on organisms in their environment on the major coastlines of the U.S. In the second section, coastal water body conditions, the environment itself is emphasized. References were found for the Alaskan coast, but none were found for Hawaii. The third section, on natural disasters, emphasizes environmental impacts resulting from natural phenomena. Guidelines, planning and management reports, modelling documents, strategic and restoration plans, and environmental economics related to sustainability are included in the fourth section, resource management. Author, geographic, and subject indices indices are provided. The authors would like to thank Victor Omelczenko and Terry Seldon of the NOAA Sea Grant Office for access to and training on the NOAA Sea Grant Depository Database. We are grateful also to Dorothy Anderson, Philip Keavey, and Elizabeth Petersen who reviewed the draft document.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Coastal Ecosystem Assessment Program: a manual of methods

Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: 2011

In August 2011, the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft-bottom habitat and overlying waters of the continental shelf in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The original sampling design included 50 randomly selected sites from the Mississippi River delta to the U.S./Mexican border, representing a total area of 111,162 square kilometers; however, vessel failures and inclement weather precluded sampling at 16 sites in the western-most part of the study region. Sampling was completed at the remaining 34 sites in offshore waters between the Mississippi River delta and Freeport, Texas, representing an estimated 75,591 square kilometers. Field sampling followed standard methods and indicators applied in prior NOAA coastal studies and EPA’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA). A key feature adopted from these studies was the incorporation of a random probabilistic sampling design. Such a design provides a basis for making unbiased statistical estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition relative to various measured indicators and corresponding thresholds of concern. Indicators included multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels). Water depths ranged from 13 – 83 m throughout the study area. About 9 % of the area had sediments composed of sands (< 20 % silt+clay), 47 % of the area was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20 – 80 % silt+clay), and 44 % of the sampled area consisted of mud (> 80 % silt+clay). About 50 % of the area (represented by 17 sites) had sediment total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations < 5 mg/g and all of the sites sampled had levels of TOC < 20 mg/g, well below the range associated with potentially harmful effects to benthic fauna (> 50 mg/g). Surface salinities ranged from 23.4 – 36.5 psu, with salinity generally increasing with distance west of the Mississippi River delta. Bottom salinities varied between 31.1 and 36.5 psu, with lowest values occurring at shallow, inner-shelf stations. Surface-water temperatures varied between 29.8 and 31.5 ºC, while near-bottom waters ranged in temperature from 19.4 – 31 ºC. An index of density stratification (Δσt) indicated that portions of coastal shelf waters in the northwestern GOM at the time of this sampling were strongly stratified. Values of Δσt at 19 of the 34 sites sampled in this study (56 % of the study area) ranged from 2.2 to 12.4, which is within the range considered to be indicative of strong vertical stratification (Δσt > 2). Stratification was strongest close to the Mississippi River delta, and decreased with distance west of the delta.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida: 2007

A study was initiated with field work in May 2007 to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida, focusing on soft-bottom habitats, and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Anclote Key on the western coast of Florida to West Palm Beach on the eastern coast of Florida, inclusive of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). The study was conducted through a large cooperative effort by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FKNMS, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The majority of the South Florida shelf had high levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of “good” water quality.. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at 98.8% throughout the coastal-ocean survey area. Only 1.2% of the region had moderate DO levels (2-5 mg/L) and no part of the survey area had DO <2.0 mg/L. In addition, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and chlorophyll a indicative of oligotrophic conditions. Results suggested good sediment quality as well. Sediments throughout the region, which ranged from sands to intermediate muddy sands, had low levels of total organic carbon (TOC) below bioeffect guidelines for benthic organisms. Chemical contaminants in sediments were also mostly at low, background levels. For example, none of the stations had chemicals in excess of corresponding Effects-Range Median (ERM) probable bioeffect values or more than one chemical in excess of lower-threshold Effects-Range Low (ERL) values. Cadmium was the only chemical that occurred at moderate concentrations between corresponding ERL and ERM values. Sixty fish samples from 28 stations were collected and analyzed for chemical contaminants. Eleven of these samples (39% of sites) had moderate levels of contaminants, between lower and upper non-cancer human-health thresholds, and ten (36% of sites) had high levels of contaminants above the upper threshold.

A biogeographic asssessment of seabirds, deep sea corals and ocean habitats of the New York Bight: science to support offshore spatial planning

This report provides a compilation of new maps and spatial assessments for seabirds, bathymetry, surficial sediments, deep sea corals, and oceanographic habitats in support of offshore spatial planning led by the New York Department of State Ocean and Great Lakes Program. These diverse ecological themes represent priority information gaps left by past assessments and were requested by New York to better understand and balance ocean uses and environmental conservation in the Atlantic. The main goal of this report is to translate raw ecological, geomorphological and oceanographic data into maps and assessments that can be easily used and understood by coastal managers involved in offshore spatial planning. New York plans to integrate information in this report with other ecological, geophysical and human use data to obtain a broad perspective on the ocean environment, human uses and their interactions. New York will then use this information in an ecosystem-based framework to coordinate and support decisions balancing competing demands in their offshore environment, and ultimately develop a series of amendments to New York’s federally approved Coastal Management Program. The targeted users of this report and the compiled spatial information are New York coastal managers, but other State and federal decision-makers, offshore renewable energy development interests and environmental advocates will also find the information useful. In addition, the data and approaches will be useful to regional spatial planning initiatives set up by the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO) and federal regional planning bodies for coastal and marine spatial planning.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) research highlights in the Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States. It is a unique and valuable national treasure because of its ecological, recreational, economic and cultural benefits. The problems facing the Bay are well known and extensively documented, and are largely related to human uses of the watershed and resources within the Bay. Over the past several decades as the origins of the Chesapeake’s problems became clear, citizens groups and Federal, State, and local governments have entered into agreements and worked together to restore the Bay’s productivity and ecological health. In May 2010, President Barack Obama signed Executive Order number 13508 that tasked a team of Federal agencies to develop a way forward in the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake watershed. Success of both State and Federal efforts will depend on having relevant, sound information regarding the ecology and function of the system as the basis of management and decision making. In response to the executive order, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) has compiled an overview of its research in Chesapeake Bay watershed. NCCOS has a long history of Chesapeake Bay research, investigating the causes and consequences of changes throughout the watershed’s ecosystems. This document presents a cross section of research results that have advanced the understanding of the structure and function of the Chesapeake and enabled the accurate and timely prediction of events with the potential to impact both human communities and ecosystems. There are three main focus areas: changes in land use patterns in the watershed and the related impacts on contaminant and pathogen distribution and concentrations; nutrient inputs and algal bloom events; and habitat use and life history patterns of species in the watershed. Land use changes in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have dramatically changed how the system functions. A comparison of several subsystems within the Bay drainages has shown that water quality is directly related to land use and how the land use affects ecosystem health of the rivers and streams that enter the Chesapeake Bay. Across the Chesapeake as a whole, the rivers that drain developed areas, such as the Potomac and James rivers, tend to have much more highly contaminated sediments than does the mainstem of the Bay itself. In addition to what might be considered traditional contaminants, such as hydrocarbons, new contaminants are appearing in measurable amounts. At fourteen sites studied in the Bay, thirteen different pharmaceuticals were detected. The impact of pharmaceuticals on organisms and the people who eat them is still unknown. The effects of water borne infections on people and marine life are known, however, and the exposure to certain bacteria is a significant health risk. A model is now available that predicts the likelihood of occurrence of a strain of bacteria known as Vibrio vulnificus throughout Bay waters.