Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal community hazard mitigation and community rating system of NFIP

Storm force flooding continues to be a major concern in the hurricane season and causes considerable loss to the coastal communities. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provides recovery resources for the flood disaster and dissuades uneconomic uses from locating in flood hazard area. In order to motivate flood insurance purchase and promote increased flood hazard mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) that is a part of NFIP, credits 18 community floodplain management activities. However, CRS has been marked by a lack of active participation since its inception limiting its potential effectiveness. As of January 2008, 1080 communities, representing only 5% of all the NFIP communities have enrolled in CRS. Little empirical evidence exists to shed light on what factors influence the establishment of local hazard mitigation projects. To fill this gap, we propose to analyze flood hazard mitigation projects in 37 North Carolina coastal counties between 2002 and 2008. Specifically, we will examine the influence of physical, risk, and socioeconomic factors on coastal community hazard mitigation decisions as reflected in the CRS score. Ultimately, our project will forge a better understanding of community decision making, as related to natural hazards. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Reforming state-level coastal management and development policies: strategic retreat as an innovative, proactive and equitable coastal environmental management strategy

Atlantic and Gulf Coast shorelines include some of the most unique and biologically rich ecosystems in the United States that provide immeasurable aesthetic, habitat and economic benefits. Natural coastal ecosystems, however, are under increasing threat from rampant and irresponsible growth and development. Once a boon to local economies, complex natural forces – enhanced by global climate change and sea level rise - are now considered hazards and eroding the very foundation upon which coastal development is based. For nearly a century, beach restoration and erosion control structures have been used to artificially stabilize shorelines in an effort to protect structures and infrastructure. Beach restoration, the import and emplacement of sand on an eroding beach, is expensive, unpredictable, inefficient and may result in long-term environmental impacts. The detrimental environmental impacts of erosion control structures such as sea walls, groins, bulkheads and revetments include sediment deficits, accelerated erosion and beach loss. These and other traditional responses to coastal erosion and storm impacts- along with archaic federal and state policies, subsidies and development incentives - are costly, encourage risky development, artificially increase property values of high-risk or environmentally sensitive properties, reduce the post-storm resilience of shorelines, damage coastal ecosystems and are becoming increasingly unsustainable. Although communities, coastal managers and property owners face increasingly complex and difficult challenges, there is an emerging public, social and political awareness that, without meaningful policy reforms, coastal ecosystems and economies are in jeopardy. Strategic retreat is a sustainable, interdisciplinary management strategy that supports the proactive, planned removal of vulnerable coastal development; reduces risk; increases shoreline resiliency and ensures long term protection of coastal systems. Public policies and management strategies that can overcome common economic misperceptions and promote the removal of vulnerable development will provide state and local policy makers and coastal managers with an effective management tool that concomitantly addresses the economic, environmental, legal and political issues along developed shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Addressing and adapting to contemporary coastal management issues in the central Philippines

With arguably the world’s most decentralized coastal governance regime, the Philippines has implemented integrated coastal management (ICM) for over 30 years as one of the most successful frameworks for coastal resource management in the country. Anthropogenic drivers continue to threaten the food security and livelihood of coastal residents; contributing to the destruction of critical marine habitats, which are heavily relied upon for the goods and services they provide. ICM initiatives in the Philippines have utilized a variety of tools, particularly marine protected areas (MPAs), to promote poverty alleviation through food security and sustainable forms of development. From the time marine reserves were first shown to effectively address habitat degradation and decline in reef fishery production (Alcala et al., 2001) over 1,100 locally managed MPAs have been established in the Philippines; yet only 10-20% of these are effectively managed (White et al., 2006; PhilReefs, 2008). In order to increase management effectiveness, biophysical, legal, institutional and social linkages need to be strengthened and “scaled up” to accommodate a more holistic systems approach (Lowry et al., 2009). This summary paper incorporates the preliminary results of five independently conducted studies. Subject areas covered are the social and institutional elements of MPA networks, ecosystem-based management applicability, financial sustainability and the social vulnerability of coastal residents to climate change in the Central Philippines. Each section will provide insight into these focal areas and suggest how management strategies may be adapted to holistically address these contemporary issues. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Five concepts in planning theory useful to coastal management

In recent years coastal resource management has begun to stand as its own discipline. Its multidisciplinary nature gives it access to theory situated in each of the diverse fields which it may encompass, yet management practices often revert to the primary field of the manager. There is a lack of a common set of “coastal” theory from which managers can draw. Seven resource-related issues with which coastal area managers must contend include: coastal habitat conservation, traditional maritime communities and economies, strong development and use pressures, adaptation to sea level rise and climate change, landscape sustainability and resilience, coastal hazards, and emerging energy technologies. The complexity and range of human and environmental interactions at the coast suggest a strong need for a common body of coastal management theory which managers would do well to understand generally. Planning theory, which itself is a synthesis of concepts from multiple fields, contains ideas generally valuable to coastal management. Planning theory can not only provide an example of how to develop a multi- or transdisciplinary set of theory, but may also provide actual theoretical foundation for a coastal theory. In particular we discuss five concepts in the planning theory discourse and present their utility for coastal resource managers. These include “wicked” problems, ecological planning, the epistemology of knowledge communities, the role of the planner/ manager, and collaborative planning. While these theories are known and familiar to some professionals working at the coast, we argue that there is a need for broader understanding amongst the various specialists working in the increasingly identifiable field of coastal resource management. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Climate change adaptation through coastal and use management: The context of environmental justice

Despite an increasing literary focus on climate change adaptation, the facilitation of this adaptation is occurring on a limited basis (Adger et al. 2007) .This limited basis is not necessarily due to inability; rather, a lack of comprehensive cost estimates of all options specifically hinders adaptation in vulnerable communities (Adger et al. 2007). Specifically the estimated cost of the climate change impact of sea-level rise is continually increasing due to both increasing rates and the resulting multiplicative impact of coastal erosion (Karl et al., 2009, Zhang et al., 2004) Based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, minority groups and small island nations have been identified within these vulnerable communities. Therefore the development of adaptation policies requires the engagement of these communities. State examples of sea-level rise adaptation through land use planning mechanisms such as land acquisition programs (New Jersey) and the establishment of rolling easements (Texas) are evidence that although obscured, adaptation opportunities are being acted upon (Easterling et al., 2004, Adger et al.2007). (PDF contains 4 pages)

Developing effective restoration plans to tackle the widespread impairment of coastal swimming and shellfishing waters

Congress established a legal imperative to restore the quality of our surface waters when it enacted the Clean Water Act in 1972. The act requires that existing uses of coastal waters such as swimming and shellfishing be protected and restored. Enforcement of this mandate is frequently measured in terms of the ability to swim and harvest shellfish in tidal creeks, rivers, sounds, bays, and ocean beaches. Public-health agencies carry out comprehensive water-quality sampling programs to check for bacteria contamination in coastal areas where swimming and shellfishing occur. Advisories that restrict swimming and shellfishing are issued when sampling indicates that bacteria concentrations exceed federal health standards. These actions place these coastal waters on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies’ (EPA) list of impaired waters, an action that triggers a federal mandate to prepare a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) analysis that should result in management plans that will restore degraded waters to their designated uses. When coastal waters become polluted, most people think that improper sewage treatment is to blame. Water-quality studies conducted over the past several decades have shown that improper sewage treatment is a relatively minor source of this impairment. In states like North Carolina, it is estimated that about 80 percent of the pollution flowing into coastal waters is carried there by contaminated surface runoff. Studies show this runoff is the result of significant hydrologic modifications of the natural coastal landscape. There was virtually no surface runoff occurring when the coastal landscape was natural in places such as North Carolina. Most rainfall soaked into the ground, evaporated, or was used by vegetation. Surface runoff is largely an artificial condition that is created when land uses harden and drain the landscape surfaces. Roofs, parking lots, roads, fields, and even yards all result in dramatic changes in the natural hydrology of these coastal lands, and generate huge amounts of runoff that flow over the land’s surface into nearby waterways. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Resource management of dynamic coastal environments using synoptic measures from remote sensing

In addition to providing vital ecological services, coastal areas of North Carolina provide prized areas for habitation, recreation, and commercial fisheries. However, from a management perspective, the coasts of North Carolina are highly variable and complex. In-water constituents such as nutrients, suspended sediments, and chlorophyll a concentration can vary significantly over a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Rapid growth and land-use change continue to exert pressure on coastal lands. Coastal environments are also very vulnerable to short-term (e.g., hurricanes) and long-term (e.g., sea-level rise) natural changes that can result in significant loss of life, economic loss, or changes in coastal ecosystem functioning. Hence, the dynamic nature, effects of human-induced change over time, and vulnerability of coastal areas make it difficult to effectively monitor and manage these important state and national resources using traditional data collection technologies such as discrete monitoring stations and field surveys. In general, these approaches provide only a sparse network of data over limited time and space scales and generally are expensive and labor-intensive. Products derived from spectral images obtained by remote sensing instruments provide a unique vantage point from which to examine the dynamic nature of coastal environments. A primary advantage of remote sensing is that the altitude of observation provides a large-scale synoptic view relative to traditional field measurements. Equally important, the use of remote sensing for a broad range of research and environmental applications is now common due to major advances in data availability, data transfer, and computer technologies. To facilitate the widespread use of remote sensing products in North Carolina, the UNC Coastal Studies Institute (UNC-CSI) is developing the capability to acquire, process, and analyze remotely sensed data from several remote sensing instruments. In particular, UNC-CSI is developing regional remote sensing algorithms to examine the mobilization, transport, transformation, and fate of materials between coupled terrestrial and coastal ocean systems. To illustrate this work, we present the basic principles of remote sensing of coastal waters in the context of deriving information that supports efficient and effective management of coastal resources. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Protecting a threatened coastal fish species through regional collaboration

Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are small anadromous fish that live in nearshore coastal waters during much of the year and migrate to tidal rivers to spawn during the spring. They are a key prey species in marine food webs, as they are consumed by larger organisms such as striped bass, bluefish, and seabirds. In addition, smelt are valued culturally and economically, as they support important recreational and commercial fisheries. The Atlantic Coast range of rainbow smelt has been contracting in recent decades. Historically, populations extended from the Delaware River to eastern Labrador and the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Buckley 1989). More recent observations indicate that rainbow smelt spawning populations have been extirpated south of Long Island Sound, and evidence of spawning activity is extremely limited between Long Island and Cape Cod, MA. In the Gulf of Maine region, spawning runs are still observed, but monitoring surveys as well as commercial and recreational catches indicate that these populations have also declined (e.g., Chase and Childs 2001). Many diverse factors could drive the recently noted declines in rainbow smelt populations, including spawning habitat conditions, fish health, marine environmental conditions, and fishing pressure. Few studies have assessed any of these potential threats or their joint implications. In 2004, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed rainbow smelt as a species of concern. Subsequently, the states of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts were awarded a grant through NMFS’s Proactive Conservation Program to gather new information on the status of rainbow smelt, identify factors that affect spawning populations, and develop a multi-state conservation program. This paper provides an overview of this collaborative project, highlighting key biological monitoring and threats assessment research that is being conducted throughout the Gulf of Maine. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Wetlands and coastal water quality: Should wetland size matter?

Generally, wetlands are thought to perform water purification functions, removing contaminants as water flows through sediment and vegetation. This paradigm was challenged when Grant et al. (2001) reported that Talbert Salt Marsh (Figure 1.) increased fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) output to coastal waters, contributing to poor coastal water quality. Like most southern California wetlands, Talbert Salt Marsh has been severely degraded. It is a small (10 ha), restored wetland, only 1/100th its original size, and located at the base of a highly urbanized watershed. Is it reasonable to expect that this or any severely altered wetland will perform the same water purification benefits as a natural wetland? To determine how a more pristine southern California coastal wetland attenuated bacterial contaminants, we investigated FIB concentrations entering and exiting Carpinteria Salt Marsh (Figure 2.), a 93 ha, moderate-sized, relatively natural wetland.(PDF contains 4 pages)

The island of Kauai, Hawaii's progressive shoreline setback and coastal protection ordinance

Approximately two-thirds of coastal and Great Lakes states have some type of shoreline construction setback or construction control line requiring development to be a certain distance from the shoreline or other coastal feature (OCRM, 2008). Nineteen of 30 coastal states currently use erosion rates for new construction close to the shoreline. Seven states established setback distances based on expected years from the shoreline: the remainder specify a fixed setback distance (Heinz Report, 2000). Following public hearings by the County of Kauai Planning Commission and Kauai County Council, the ‘Shoreline Setback and Coastal Protection Ordinance’ was signed by the Mayor of Kauai on January 25, 2008. After a year of experience implementing this progressive, balanced shoreline setback ordinance several amendments were recently incorporated into the Ordinance (#887; Bill #2319 Draft 3). The Kauai Planning Department is presently drafting several more amendments to improve the effectiveness of the Ordinance. The intent of shoreline setbacks is to establish a buffer zone to protect shorefront development from loss due to coastal erosion - for a period of time; to provide protection from storm waves; to allow the natural dynamic cycles of erosion and accretion of beaches and dunes to occur; to maintain beach and dune habitat; and, to maintain lateral beach access and open space for the enjoyment of the natural shoreline environment. In addition, a primary goal of the Kauai setback ordinance is to avoid armoring or hardening of the shore which along eroding coasts has been documented to ultimately eliminate the fronting beach. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)