Toward a rule-based biome model

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50 to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated either by competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes or by drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, hence the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken toward development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. ... The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including: explicit simulation of potential evapotranspiration, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

Effects of observation time on interpretation of climatic time series - a need for consistency

Much of what we know about the climate of the United States is derived from data gathered under the auspices of the cooperative climate network. Particular aspects of the way observations are taken can have significant influences on the values of climate statistics derived from the data. These influences are briefly reviewed. The purpose of this paper is to examine their effects on climatic time series. Two other items discussed are: (1) a comparison of true (24-hour) means with means derived from maximums and minimums only, and (2) preliminary work on the times of day at which maximums and minimums are set.

Regional context of the climate of H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest is a 6400 ha forest of Douglas fir, western hemlock, and Pacific silver fir located in, and typical of, the central portion of the western slope of the Cascade mountain range of Oregon. The forest is one of 19 sites in the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program sponsored by the National Science Foundation. ... Because of the scientific significance of Andrews Forest, it is important to investigate the temporal variability of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation values at the site and identify past times of anomalous climatic conditions. It is also important to establish quantitatively the relationships between the climate of Andrews Forest and that of its surrounding area and, hence, place the climate of Andrews Forest into its regional context.

Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interdisciplinary group is studying important aspects of hydrology, paleolimnology, geochemistry, and paleontology as they apply to climate-driven hydrologic changes.

Enhancing capacities of fishing communities: ICSF-BOBLME sub-regional dialogue on labour, migration and fisheries management. Report of the proceedings, 11 to 13 December 2013, Chulalongkorn University,Thailand

This report on the “Sub-regional Dialogue on Labour, Migration and Fisheries Management”, held at Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand, from 11 to 13 December 2013, highlights the issue of migrant labour on board fishing vessels and the problems migrant workers face in their workaday lives. This report will be useful for students, researchers, activists and anyone else interested in matters related to fisheries and small-scale fishing communities.

Poverty in the fisheries, inductors, causes and intervention

The study is prompted by the poverty that persisted among the fishing communities of lake victoria at time of considerable cash inflow into the fisheries development of fish processing industry. There has been need for understanding of the poverty and what strategies would be most appreciate for it's reduction.This study has attempted to respond to the needby identifying the nature and distribution of the poverty within the fisheries lake victoria,Uganda, the factor responsible for itand the options for poverty reduction intervention. The study examined the global and regional perspectives of poverty and wealth distribution, noting that wide disparities existed between the developed and the developing world and also between the developing countries themselves. A historical review of development policies and strategies revealed that while successive strategies were able to contribute to growth, their achievement towards poverty alleviation were less than satisfactory, hence the need for continually developing new strategies. A background to Uganda’s society and economy is provided, examining the demographic, political, environmental and economic conditions of the country. Uganda’s development strategies are reviewed, highlighting the role of the Poverty Eradication Action Plan, Uganda’s main strategy for implementing the policy of poverty reduction and wealth distribution. At the agricultural sector level, the Plan for the Modernisation of Agriculture has been formulated, followed by the National Fisheries Policy, aimed at providing a policy framework for the management and development of the fisheries. An appropriate definition of poverty was formulated, considered relevant to the situation of Lake Victoria. The dimensions of poverty included inadequate basic necessities, low education and health achievements, a sense of insecurity and exposure to risk. The research methodology was enhanced by the examination of the Lélé Model of the Poverty–Environmental Degradation problem, the World Bank Model of Poverty Causation and the subsequent Lake Victoria Model developed in this study. It has provided a plan for the research, the consideration of criteria and a data collection plan. The data collection instruments included secondary data search, key informant interviews and a sample survey based on a structured questionnaire. The study identified all the four dimensions of poverty in the fisheries, provided poverty profiles with respect to the different activities, groups of people and regions in the fisheries, based on consumption poverty. Among the people identified to be in poverty were the fishing labourers, fishers of Oreochromis niloticus and those operating with non-powered boats. In the post-harvest fisheries, large proportions of processors involved in salting and sun-drying, market stall and bicycle traders were in the poverty category. The ethnic groups most affected included the Samia, Basoga and Bakenye while the Districts of Jinja, Bugiri and Busia had the highest proportions of fishers in the poverty category. With respect to the other dimensions of poverty, the study showed that educational achievement was low within the fishing communities. The health status was poor, due mainly to the prevalence of malaria, diarrhoea, bilharzia and HIV/AIDS. There was a sense of insecurity within certain sections of the fishing community, due to leadership weaknesses within the local as well as the Government institutions. Some community members operated in a state of risk because they were vulnerable to episodes of income, health and education. The causes of poverty in fisheries included weaknesses within the institutional and social environment, limitations in the technology available to the poor, resource degradation and unfavourable economic factors. The recommendations of the study for poverty reduction included strengthening of policies, developing links, improving capacities and increasing resources, to be applied at the levels of Central Government, Local Government and of the community. In view of the achievements of the methodology used on this study, involving reference to the models, it is recommended that future research should build upon this model approach, as it will continue to produce results, especially when attempting to forecast changes relating to interventions.